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Recession Hits One-Year Anniversary

December 01, 2008 1:36 PM

Mayerowitz ABC News' Scott Mayerowitz reports: It’s official: The United States is in a recession.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced this afternoon that it had concluded that the country entered a recession in December 2007. The U.S. economy had been growing since November 2001.

The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

Ap_recession_begins_081201_main “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators,” the committee said in a news release.

The committee noted that after December the number of people employed started to decline. The country lost more than 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of the year. Additionally, manufacturing declined during that period.

While the recession started nearly a year ago, it takes the bureau normally six to 18 months to officially declare one -- to remove any doubt and so it can accurately declare a state date.

Today’s announcement wasn’t really a surprise to anybody. We have long known that 49 states were in or at risk of recession. And all the other telltale signs existed: shrinking GPD and mounting job losses.

The White House responded to the private group’s determination this way:

"As we’ve always said, NBER determines the start and end dates of business cycles, and they’ve done that,” said Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto. “But what’s important is what is being done about it. The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus. Addressing these parts of the economy will help to return the economy to economic growth.”

It means we’re already a year in to the current down cycle, which makes this recession longer than the average post-World War II recession (10 months) and so-far the third worst since 1945 (Nov. 1973 and July 1981 recessions both lasted 16 months).

It also means the current Bush administration saw two official downturns. The last time that happened was during the first Reagan term (January 1980 and July 1981).

The average recession since 1854 has lasted 17 months, but since the turn of the last century we’ve seen a marked reduction in the length of down cycles. Since 1900, recessions have averaged 14 months; just 10 months in the post-WWII era.

The worst recession of the modern era: 43 months from August 1929 to March 1933. To best that milestone, the U.S. would have to be contracting through August 2011.

For more information on the bureau’s decision, check out the news release: http://www.nber.org/dec2008.html

December 1, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (60)

User Comments

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The Fed’s balance sheet “will eventually have to be brought back to a more sustainable level,” Bernanke said. MORE UNSUSTAINABLE ECONOMICS deployed to prop-up the disequilibrium of ASSET PRICES on Wall Street. FOLLOW THE MONEY AND BUY STOCKS WITH THE BAILED-OUT WALL STREETERS!!!

Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:53:41 PM

The first step to recovery is admitting and accepting you have problem. Then you deal with recovery!

Posted by: Jerry Case | Dec 1, 2008 2:53:47 PM

Ah yet another of Bush's lies finally surfaces.

Posted by: CC | Dec 1, 2008 2:54:21 PM

The working class has know this for over a year, wages smaller, everything out of the normal person reach. Why does everyone want to hide the faxes that we already know??

Posted by: Joan | Dec 1, 2008 2:58:16 PM

The entire world economy depends on the US consumers. What Bush should have been doing, instead of giving these huge tax cuts to the super rich, was making sure all of us had enough money to spend as consumers. As it is now, George W. Bush will go down in history as a very failed President.

Posted by: US Citizen | Dec 1, 2008 2:58:59 PM

T,

Its never been just two negative GDP quarters. There are so many facotrs. So instead of calling this a new way of determining a recession, you should just think that you have always been wrong but now know how its really done. NBER has been around for a long long time. www.nber.org

Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:01:57 PM

North Park - Economists have for decades used the 2-quarter measure. Kennedy used it, Reagan used it, Clinton used it...on and on. As you probably know some other organization came out about a week ago and said it started in April/May. These organizations are getting their 15 minutes of fame.

Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 3:09:49 PM

No T youre wrong. NBER has been around for a long long time. two quarters of GDP is just the short easy answer...but its not the correct answer..Man it was 10 years ago I was on their web site b/c I was trying to predict the probably of a recession based on quarterly data using logit and probit regression analysis. These variables used have been around brother. Its been awhile for me but I think they have data going back to the 1940's. So look all Im sdaying is that its not new. Thinking its two quarters of negative GDP is wrong. get over it. I dont care if the Pope used it, its wrong!

Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:33:42 PM

Get ready for 8-10% Unemployment - I hope you are saving instead of spending..

Posted by: Trickle This | Dec 1, 2008 3:35:53 PM

The worse part is I think the only reason we got out of the last recession was only becassue people did more work for less. I was laid off during the last recession and When I found new work it was nowhere near what I was making before.

Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:38:52 PM

Like everybody already didn't know! Sheesh!

Posted by: LongT | Dec 1, 2008 3:44:06 PM

8 years of super-majority GOP rule and all I got was this RECESSION!

Posted by: PRESIDENT OBAMA | Dec 1, 2008 4:07:53 PM

Most people in this country already knew that we had been in a recession for quite some time now. I'm guessing that the Bush administration needed to hear the "official announcement" today. It seems that up to this point, they didn't have a clue!

Posted by: jmb | Dec 1, 2008 4:08:46 PM

NorthPark -- So, I'll look forward to you calling 3% GDP growth and 6.1% unemployment (like we had in the 2nd quarter of this year) a recession in the future. You won't call it that. NOBODY would -- I don't care if NBER was blessed by the POPE.

Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 4:15:34 PM

T so wait a minute, youre saying this country is NOT in a Recession?

Please just goto www.nber.org and read for yourself. You've annoyed me to no end. I dont know what else to say to you except that youre wrong. Im sure youve had long quality talks with Reagen, Clinton and Kennedy. ITs just not all about GDP or unemployment. There are other variables, if you had any econometrics in college you'd understand. But Im afraid you might have not made it that far, b/c of youre unwillingness to listen.

So, go on believing what you do... it makes no difference to me how ignorant you are or how ignorant you want to be.

Posted by: Jaydee | Dec 1, 2008 4:39:51 PM

Its only a recession when it starts to affect the wallets
of Bush's super wealthy 2%.

For the rest of America, its a DEPRESSION!

Like a whole lot of people, I'm making less than half of what I made BEFORE this monkey came into office.

Posted by: bushwart | Dec 1, 2008 4:52:26 PM

just what was the 700 billion bailout for???

Posted by: jack | Dec 1, 2008 5:25:13 PM

I can't believe this administration waited until after the election to make an official announcement about a recession. They did not want to influence the votes! Glad the voters saw the truth!

Posted by: ssbeck | Dec 1, 2008 6:47:52 PM

Okay, it's official now. Time to panic. Seriosly though, ssbeck, the ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT TO INFLUENCE VOTES?!?! No, it just supported a (totally bogus) bail-out plan, issued several speeches on the economy, and pressured Congress to DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ECONOMY! As has already (kind of) been stated, the president's main job is not the economy. He is the Commander in Chief, but on TOP of that, he is the head of the EXECUTIVE BRANCH. Okay, time for a quick eighth grade lesson on how our government works, in a nutshell. The LEGISLATIVE BRANCH (Congress) makes laws, the EXECUTIVE BRANCH (President and Co.) executes laws. HEAR THAT? The president is there for 1. A Check on the Congress with Vetoes, 2. The person who handles the military and gets laws executed, and 3. As a figurehead and a symbolic figurehead for the country. (In recent years, certain members of our news organizations have added 4. A person to blame when everything doesn't go perfectly) If our economy is lame, WHAT WAS BUSH SUPPOSED TO DO ABOUT IT?! I say he does nothing, we somehow manage to convince Obama to scrap is Newer Deal ideas, and we let the market do its thing like it has for centuries.
P.S. If you have never read Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, or at least heard its principles, then you are missing out on the principles that make our economy run, and you are probably liberal.

Posted by: Patriot | Dec 1, 2008 7:26:40 PM

According to Keynes, the root cause of an economic downturns is an insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.

http://nomedals.blogspot.com

Posted by: Jason | Dec 1, 2008 9:56:00 PM

It's official. Academics declare that hindsight really is 20-20.

Posted by: Dugese | Dec 1, 2008 10:36:05 PM

The analysts were announcing it. George Bush, the decider, was denying it. We were all feeling it. Who's suprised by it?

Posted by: Rick_VT | Dec 1, 2008 10:37:55 PM

Definition:
Recession = your neighbor lost his job
Depression = YOU lost your job

Posted by: babaganoosh | Dec 1, 2008 11:03:06 PM

I am hereby announcing that we've been in a Depression since October 2008, and that by the time these bozos realize it we will have completely recovered.

Posted by: Dugese | Dec 2, 2008 12:49:48 AM

MORE GAMES being played by the BAILED-OUT WALL STREET gurus - WALL STREET runs on BAILOUT MONEY now and WALL STREET wants to make sure DETROIT joins the BAILOUT BONANZA. If the market looks too good, then DETROIT might miss getting in on the action. ABC with it's depression/recession obsession is part of the FLEECING of the TAXPAYER.

Posted by: T | Dec 2, 2008 12:27:45 PM

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