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Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior National Correspondent Jake Tapper

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BELLWETHER, SHMELLWETHER

June 07, 2006 9:40 AM

Any trends in these election results?

A good day for scions -- Tom Kean Jr. in New Jersey, George Wallace Jr. in Alabama, Chet Culver in Iowa...

A mixed day for celebrity candidates -- Former Alabama Chief Justice Roy Moore defeated for governor; Rob Reiner's pre-school initiative in California stomped like a narc at a biker rally....but Jerry Brown rises from the ashes of Oakland to win the Democratic party's nomination for California Attorney General.

But what about the so-called bellwether???

No big great news for Democrats in California's special election to replace convicted criminal Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, R-CA. In an era where Democrats are trying to tar the Republicans with the "culture of corruption," San Diegans voted for a congressman-turned lobbyist, Brian Bilbray, over Francine Busby, who seriously hobbled her chances with an ill-conceived gaffe that made it sound as if she were urging illegal immigrants to vote for her.

Crowed Rep. Tom Reynolds, R-NY, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, "National Democrats did not discover their shockwave in San Diego. National Democrats must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it in the media or because they ask their special interest friends to buy it for them. The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues."

Indeed, in the Democrats' eagerness to make 2006 a leftward repeat of the 1994 Republican revolution, they pushed the idea that this specific special election would be a bellwether election. As of now, the only bellwether notion is whether the Democrats can screw up what should be a remarkably hospitable election climate.

Whether Busby's misguided statements before a Latino crowd -- "Everybody can help, yeah, absolutely, you can all help. You don't need papers for voting, you don't need to be a registered voter to help" -- becomes a bellwether for further Democratic political malpractice is another question altogether.

One relative bright note for Democrats -- Montana Democrats selected a candidate without any apparent ethical clouds over his head to take on Sen. Conrad Burns, R-MT, who has Abramoff issues of his own. 

In the Democratic Senate primary, state Senate President Jon Tester walloped State Auditor John Morrison. Morrison had been favored, had been something of the establishment candidate, had raised almost twice as much as Tester, but during the campaign it emerged Morrison had an affair with a woman whose fiancé was later investigated by Morrion's office (though Morrison claimed his inappropriate relationship had nothing to do with the probe).

That mess would have made it tough for the Democrats to take on Burns over any alleged improprieties of his own; Democrats dodged that bullet.

One of the bright lights of our political unit, Teddy Davis, notes that House Democrats are planning to roll out their version of the Contract with America later this year...

It's catchy (?) title -- "Six in 'o6"....

It's a legislative agenda that includes:

(1) a minimum wage increase;
(2) repealing the portion of the Medicare prescription drug law that prevents Medicare from negotiating for lower drug prices;
(3) implementing all of the 9/11 Commission’s homeland security recommendations;
(4) reinstating pay-as-you-go budget rules;
(5) making college more affordable; and
(6) a sixth plank that has not yet been settled upon.

"It’s expected that House Democratic candidates would stage some kind of television-friendly signing ceremony as Newt Gingrich and House Republicans did in 1994," Teddy writes me. "House Democrats are expected to pledge to pass all six items their first week in power."

I love both the Book of Revelations feel to the "6 in '06" motto, not to mention the "To Be Determined" principle #6.

-- jt

June 7, 2006 | Permalink | User Comments (11)

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Just a note about the biblical reference, if I understood it correctly: It should be the Book of Revelation (singular) because that is the actual title.

Posted by: hillary | Jun 8, 2006 2:37:53 PM

Do the Republicans have anything better to offer? They have been completely in power for the last six years and it has been nothing but a nightmare. Oh, and I have a question for the poster that was against pay as you go, are you suggesting that we continue to explode the national debt and pave the way for double digit interest rates again? That is where we are headed if we don't get this ball and chain to our economy called the national debt reduced.

Posted by: John | Jun 7, 2006 10:50:00 PM

TAKE NOTE ALL OF YOU SO-CALLED CONSERVATIVES.
There is a lesson in the 50th district win for Brian Bilbray. He stood up against McCain/Kenedy, the President,the Senate and the DEMOCRATS on illegal immigration. Illegal immigration has done what no politician has been able to do. It has unified everyday Republicans & Democrats. MOST of AMERICA wants that border secured. Most Americans do not want a reward for those that entered here illegally. Politicians like Frist, McCain and others that back the Presidents plan for amnesty have made sure that they will never win higher office. The rest of you still have time. Enforcement first! Look up Bilbray's plan, and back it if you want to win.

Posted by: chris | Jun 7, 2006 10:45:45 PM

In the Dem's secret plan, "pay as you go" means fund
more and more Great Society welfare programs while reversing the Bush tax cuts. I wonder how many days after they are in power will the House Dems reveal this secret plan and start acting on it.

Posted by: Tony | Jun 7, 2006 9:38:25 PM

666? The Dems really are Devils, eh? ;)

The God Squad will win it for the GOP! :0

Posted by: buzz | Jun 7, 2006 6:59:26 PM

Thanks, but we had enough of SEX in '96 with Clinton.

Posted by: Tom | Jun 7, 2006 3:42:10 PM

Dear Sir
I like the reference to raising the minimum wage and cleaning up the perscription drug bill. But no mention of global warming crisis, conservation to help the energy supply.Its a start but there is a lot more they could be offering.

sandy

Posted by: sandra wilton | Jun 7, 2006 3:33:12 PM

Once people figure out (because the MSM certainly won't tell them) that "pay as you go" means unlimited tax increases, and that unnamed #6 is "non-stop investigations of the Bush administration", Dems will start wondering how they blew such a golden opportunity.

Posted by: Dave H | Jun 7, 2006 2:18:37 PM

I'm in complete agreement with KingM! The Democrats' utterly uninspired "6 in '06" (and, as an aside, can't they afford to hire a media consultant to come up with a snappier title?) platform of sorts addresses a mindset of about ten years ago. People today are indeed concerned about not only a balanced federal budget, but also the interminable war in Iraq, energy policy and prices, and the fact that their government no longer seems to be listening to anybody who isn't a lobbyist! What do the Dems have to say about these issues?

Posted by: chuck | Jun 7, 2006 2:14:59 PM

Jake, the main issue in many House races in Nov will be illegal immigration and Dems are on the wrong side of a majority of Americans. It beats out the war, corruption and gas prices. That's why I know Dems won't take back the House and the pundits and MSM are missing the building wave in the country. But, then they are usually out-of-touch with regular folks. They skew polls to ensure a biased outcome then are always shocked on election day. So, so predictable.

Posted by: susan boyer | Jun 7, 2006 2:04:25 PM

This would have been a decent platform in the mid-90s, but other than the balanced budget item, there is little here that addresses the big concerns of America these days. Where is the energy policy? Where is the war? Where is fixing our completely broken medical insurance system? Not to mention the totally self-serving way that Democrats are behaving on immigration. There are so many ways in which Bush and the Republicans are vulnerable these days, but unfortunately the Democrats are acting more like a conspiracy to seize power than a party that actually stands for something.

Posted by: KingM | Jun 7, 2006 11:02:04 AM

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