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Is the surge working?

July 30, 2007 2:48 PM

Many Republicans -- and some reporters -- are convinced of the importance of an op-ed in today's New York Times by think-tankers Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack essentially saying that the surge is working and should be given more time to succeed.

"The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility," the authors write. "Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place. Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily 'victory' but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with."

READ THE REST OF THE OP-ED HERE

The White House and GOP congressional leaders are selling this op-ed as evidence that the surge is working, and they're brandishing this opinion piece to try to reverse the political momentum in the U.S., which seems to be pushing strongly towards a change in mission for US troops if not a complete troop withdrawal.

I hate to rain on anyone's parade, but regardless of the merits of the op-ed, I don't think it will be the "tipping point" that supporters of the surge strategy hope it will be.

One Republican Senator's office told me the surge is a failure, op-ed or no op-ed, based on the Bush administration's own July 15 progress report.

Said another GOP Senator's office: "the time for the surge was four years ago." That Senator had not read the op-ed by Monday afternoon.

Many Republicans say the issue is that US troops are policing a civil war -- not whether or not General David Petraeus is a good commander. The debate no longer seems to be about the surge, but the mission.

And Democrats? Well, many just want the troops out, regardless of what "military-led dog-and-pony show" O'Hanlon and Pollack were taken on, in the words of one Democratic congressional aide.

It may be that the surge is working and that, as anticipated, Petraeus reports that more surging will bring more security to Iraq.

It may also prove to be long past the point of no return, that the American people are fed up with the war, and members of Congress are increasingly listening to them and not op-ed writers inside the Beltway. Rightly or wrongly.

What do you think?

-- jpt

July 30, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (14)

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WHERE IS THE LEADERSHIP ON THE PART OF OUR PRESUMPTIVE DEM NOMINEE? OR IS HE TOO BUSY PREACHING RELIGION TO WORRY ABOUT IRAQ?

Posted by: al | Jun 26, 2008 9:58:40 AM

maybe our new messiah BO will actually GO TO IRAQ and find out what is really going on. he has superior judgment, you know (witness 20 years with wright). gee, seems he never really gets out there to lead on this and get us the info we need to make a decision.

bo = 4 more years of gwb

Posted by: al | Jun 26, 2008 9:56:45 AM

The bush admin has ruined this country

Posted by: Julia Thompson | Apr 10, 2008 7:31:44 AM

WM,
You said:
We have become immobile as a nation. The congress is deadlocked.

for some of us the congress in deadlock is a Problem? Today i was watching the congress at work concernig the Freiwndly fire accident dealing with Tillman death,

Could anyone in anyway understand why many of us whould rather see a deadlock congress than one that would actually past bills raising out taxes to a ill conceive immgration Amnesty bill.

The Mass media would know good news if it bit them in the leg!

Posted by: OnceUponATime | Aug 1, 2007 2:41:04 PM

Even if this ISN't a tipping point, it sure is nice for war supporters to have a potential tipping point. How many anti-war tipping points have we already been sold by the networks?

Posted by: Tim Graham | Jul 31, 2007 6:58:22 AM

I, believe the "surge" commited more money and more troops to Bush's vanity.
In September, he will ask for more time and money and in March, he will ask for more troops, more time and more money. We cannot sustain this war, bring the troops home NOW.

Nothing will change in Iraq until the Iraqi people bring about that change.
The Shia, Sunni, Kurds and religious zealots will have to agree to disagree on some issues and bring about government reform in the best interests of all. They need to secure their nation's borders, provide national security, education, healthcare and public works, opportunity for all and defend their own nation - then they can begin to debate their differences, they should be Iraqi first and foremost.

Nothing will change in the United States until the Democrats, Republicans,
"Libs", Right winger's, leftist's, Blue and Red states, religious zealots, gay and lesbian community, NAACP, hawks & doves,___________(fill in the blank), agree to bring about that change. Remember, that we are ALL AMERICANS FIRST AND FOREMOST. We can agree to disagree on some issues and find the common ground for all of us. We need to secure our nation's borders and coast lines, enforce immigration, provide healthcare, education, national security, public works, and opportunity for all. We need to rebuild America!

I am not saying that you do not have the right to protest or that their shouldn't be equality. I am saying that our nation needs all of us to participate in this critical election process and not splinter off, to divide the vote, the congress and the nation.
Maybe we could lead by example by moving forward on what we do agree on!
We have become immobile as a nation. The congress is deadlocked. We just can't keep turning away from the issues at hand hoping they will go away or get better.
We are American's, we stand by each other, black or white, gay or straight, liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat, Jew or Christian, Buddhist or Muslim, men or women, old or young, WE stand together! No one should be allowed to undermine this! We have to stay together, that is what our country is all about. We are Americans first and foremost. Maybe we don't agree on everything but we will all stand together and fight for the right to disagree. Let's stand together now to rebuild America and bring our troop home!

Posted by: White Mountain | Jul 31, 2007 6:22:18 AM

I'd like to fantasize that we'll pull it off. But it will take more than two guys walking around for a few days with no bullet proof vests to convince me that this debacle can be salvaged.

Posted by: Antonio Manetti | Jul 31, 2007 12:44:56 AM

Nothing works overnight in the chaos that Iraq has become..so if there is real progress visible now, it is due to years of hard and sometimes heartbreaking work by dedicated American servicemen and women. It is because Iraqis are a proud people who want to show the insurgents and the world that blowing up babies isn't taught by any religion, and won't be tolerated in their country. It is not because some arrogant pseudo-intellectuals at an ethically bankrupt, journalistically discredited liberal rag say there is progress. I didn't believe them last week--I don't believe them now. This war will be a long haul. Iraq is just one of the battlefields. I can only hope it is going better now, for our troops and for the Iraqi citizens. I sure as Hell can't tell by reading the New York Times or listening to Senators up for re-election in '08.

Posted by: SteveW | Jul 30, 2007 11:46:35 PM

Only a fool would beleive in this administration now. Bush now wants to supply 20 billion dollars of military arms to the very people that attacked us, 19 muslum extreamist from Saudi Arabia on 911.

Posted by: JB | Jul 30, 2007 5:43:26 PM

I think the best idea would be to look at not only the surge but what is going on altogether in/with Iraq on a day-by-day in the here-and-now basis. Whether rescinding a previous argument or forcefully presenting a new one, neither should be burdened by a cumulative impact.

Just because there have been many, many failures and unbelievable misrepresentations and mishandling of this entire situation does not preclude progress from beginning to happen. Granted, any progress at this point is going to be dwarfed by the mounted frustration with years now of no progress and the like but if indeed progress makes itself apparent continuing to stamp feet and point fingers is going to end up being counterproductive.

The biggest irony for me about this surge and its "progress report" come September is that General Petraeus' name rhymes with "betray us"...

Posted by: Marty | Jul 30, 2007 4:50:48 PM

First of all the surge just started at the beginning of July, so to say it failed is utterly naive. Gen Petreasus stated he should have a picture by September, I believe more in a superior General then any couch potato congressman.

chuck - we are winning, see stop reading libs, see every war has its issues, they do not go easy and not as planned.

Tammy, he stated this was a new strategy, see the goal is the same, strategy in a war always changes to stay ahead of the enemy. You too should stop listening to the Marxists. and as far as profiting? The only ones I know that are profiting is Democrat Feinstein (or gold) the one from California, who's husband is getting millions from military contractors. also Moore, Clinton, Kerry, and Edwards with their Haliburton stock (hypocrits) so what profit the republicans making? I am sure there are some, but a lot of dems are.

Embarrassment of defeat?? Do you realize if we allow the Dems to lead us to defeat in this terror war millions will die.

Posted by: spock | Jul 30, 2007 3:53:44 PM

Oh come on. This is just sour grapes.

This NY Times article this morning is a huge development. It's a shocker in fact.

Something else is at work here. My take is that the Times has probably been seeing hard data for weeks from the Pentagon suggesting that the Surge is a stunning success.

It finally reached the tipping point, and they just made the call to jump out in front of the rest of the Liberal media like CNN on the story.

I also think that somehow they're planning to spin this to Hillary's benefit.

But bottom line: This is a stunning admission regardless of the motivation, by the NY Times. I can already see the Far Left Liberal Blogosphere have fits over the Times' admission.

Posted by: Eric Dondero | Jul 30, 2007 3:51:04 PM

I agree with your last paragraph, Jake. The only consistent behavior during this war has been the numerous exaggerations and the falsehoods which this administration has spread to the public to tout that conditions in Iraq were improving when they clearly were not. (As a reminder, I mention VP Cheney's famous statement, "The insurgency is in its final throes.")

So this administration wishes to use an op-ed piece as a harbinger to turn the tide of opinion? In my view, the result will have the same effect as the pleadings of the Boy Who Cried Wolf once too often: nobody will believe any of it, and rightfully so!

Posted by: chuck | Jul 30, 2007 3:06:48 PM

The Bush administration wants it both ways. First, they want us to give them more time to get the new strategy working, yet refuse to call it a new strategy, because that means that the old strategy was a failure, and the Bushies never admit a mistake. But in this case, they are right, it isn't a new strategy, just an escalation of the same old strategy, except that they don't call it an escalation.

What is going to happen in September, a non-admission that the escalation didn't work, but we need to give them more time for a new strategy (which will be more of the same)? How many more troops will have to die? How much more money needs to be stolen from future generations of Americans? Before Bush realizes that he has screwed up.

Actually, if you believe the insiders and the reports leaked out of the administration in the last few months, it becomes obvious that the Bushies knew that they had lost the war over a year and a half ago. To them, the lives of a few thousand US servicemen is nothing compared to the embarrasement of having to admit defeat. Let the blame rest of the next administration.

Of course, the fact that the financial backers of the Republican party is profitting off the war, doesn't affect things. The Republicans wouldn't deliberately start a war and then extend it, just for profit. Would they?

Posted by: Tammy Stickers | Jul 30, 2007 3:04:18 PM

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