Southern-Fried Rudy

Rudy Giuliani has a very tough road ahead in trying to win the Republican Party's nomination. My personal guess would be that he has about a 40% chance of winning the nomination. BUT if I were making book, that would be the best odds among all of the current Republican candidates. Should Giuliani win the nomination and his opponent in the general election be Sen. Hillary Clinton, the race would probably come down to New York. Many on-the-fence voters on the west coast and the southwest might actually wait to see the results of New York before making up their minds. Possibly figuring that they will let New Yorkers decide for them, since New Yorkers know their candidates so well. Of course the wrench in that thought would be a very tight race in New York. It's possible that voters might wait too long for the results and get closed out at their own precinct. But then again, if one of the candidates actually steamrolled New York, that could have a ripple effect for an easy night for the winner of New York.

History may or may not be much of a guide. But it is interesting that you have to go all the way back to 1960 and John F. Kennedy for the last non-Southern Democrat to win the White House. But Sen. Hillary Clinton might be considered somewhat of a hybrid since she does have the Arkansas connection to go with her Illinois roots and current New York residency.

It is also worth noting that the Democratic Party does have a history of tossing out most of their front runners. Time will tell!

He seems energized, and confident. I like that the success of his candidacy defies conventional wisdom and the pundits' expectations. Good for Guiliani for not switching sides on issues, as he indicated was suggested to him in the planning stage. That's a sign of leadership; he's not just taking the path to the presidency that those before him paved - he's paving his own way.