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All You Nasty Boys Don't Mean a Thing To Me
December 04, 2007 9:54 AM
If I stood up at a meeting at your work and launched into a negative diatribe about your ethics and morals, slamming you in detail about various real or imagined transgressions, there are people who would believe me. Some people would think less of you.
Some people would think less of me, too.
That's the risk of negative campaigning -- you drive up your negatives as you drive up your opponents.
That's why you might see, say, Rudy Giuliani act as if he likes Mitt Romney personally while his communications director attacks Romney as if he were the second coming of Mike Dukakis.
At some point, though, candidates can't leave the dirty work to their surrogates. And as able and gifted as Clintonistas Howard Wolfson and Phil Singer are in their particular craft, there's so much that reporters or voters want to hear from them. At some point, if Hillary Clinton wants a negative hit on Barack Obama to get through to the voters, she's going to have to be the one to deliver the message.
For Clinton that is a risk. Her negatives are so high already, for her to wade into the muck and mire to sully Obama brings with it the gamble that she will end up doing more damage to herself than to him.
But that's especially the case when her attacks seem, well, desperate.
She's been attacked by Obama and John Edwards for months now. She is certainly entitled to say whatever she wants to say. But how she does it is key. And these most recent attacks on Obama -- on his character, or whether he in kindergarten ever voiced the dreams of being president some day -- these don't seem to be hurting Obama.
They seem to be hurting her.
USA Today reports this morning that Clinton has sank nationally in the polls 11 points in the last month. Her new aggressive posturing has got to be part of this.
The risk for Obama, now the nominal frontrunner in Iowa, is that he engages with her in such a way that replicates what is now referred to as the Gephardt-Dean murder-suicide pact. During the 2004 Democratic primaries, Dick Gephardt attacked Howard Dean so strongly, and Dean responded in kind, that both sank in the polls.
John Edwards benefited then, and he hopes to benefit now.
-- jpt
December 4, 2007 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (10)
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There may be more at play here in the Clinton camp than mere lust for a fight: I believe they have come to the conclusion that the only way to stop Obama is to stop him in Iowa even at the cost of driving up Hillary's negatives: If both lose Iowa as likely through Clinton's self-destructive smear campaign, the calculation is that Hillary will still prevail everywhere else - Edwards would not have the resources to fight on and Obama would have hit a roadblock. This is the cruel and coolheaded calculation Hillary's campaign is making. Only time will tell if she was right.
Posted by: Dossevi | Dec 5, 2007 7:44:51 AM
Took me a while but I finally recognized the janet jackson reference in the blog post title. Nice.
Posted by: dry_fish | Dec 4, 2007 2:20:20 PM
Most Democrats see the present administration as untruthful and underhanded---yet, until now, most have supported a candidate--Hillary--who is all that nastiness and more. Most Democrats abhor negative politics--but the few Hillary apologists that are still left seem to say that it's okay for her to go negative. It's not. She does best when she plants questioners, or threatens debate moderators, so that she gets easy questions in public. She does best when she can claim to be the victim--just defending herself from all those nasty boys, you know. She does best when she is nice in public, but cynical, unethical, mean, and pragmatic in private. She is still an awesome force, due to her connection to the 90's, her name, and her huge team of cronies who are very, very good at old-style gutter-level politics. She will lose, as I have said here for months now, if if she reveals who she is, and what she really believes, in public. I think Hillary is NOT beginning to show herself in public, here. I think she is trying to paint Obama as a guy who can't respond to attacks--which many Democrats think cost Dukakis and Kerry the White House. Obama needs to respond with strength and dignity--but he needs to respond. Not responding is the REAL trap here.
Posted by: SteveW | Dec 4, 2007 12:16:56 PM
This is really fun stuff! The Clintons are masters when it comes to the politics of personal destruction. Yet they are also masters at claiming they are the victims of the politics of personal destruction. Anyone who is the target of their attacks is usually in a lose-lose situation. If you ignore the attacks, then the rhetoric of their attacks becomes the truth and results in your downfall. BUT if you counter attack, then the Clintons immediately become the victims. Then you are perceived as the bully which results in your downfall. The question now becomes have the Clintons done this so often that the Democratic voters are now immune to it and will turn against them? Or will the Clintons pull this off and survive another day to try it all over again in the general election?
Posted by: James Danley | Dec 4, 2007 12:01:15 PM
The essential lesson is this: a candidate--even by proxy--can't throw mud at other candidates without getting some on himself or herself. All Sen. Obama needs to do is to stay above the mudslinging by not responding in kind to the senator from New York and watch as Sen. Clinton becomes the architect of her own misfortune.
Posted by: chuck | Dec 4, 2007 11:05:43 AM
Kindgergate:
The Hillary campaign is using the fact that Obama wanted to run for president since he was a child against him. And they are citing a essay he wrote at five.
If you're thinking what I am thinking your thinking her campaign is either insane or desperate.
Posted by: Ann Memphis, TN | Dec 4, 2007 11:01:17 AM
I admire Barack Obama for not striking back at Hillary in such a way as to do himself political damage. Hillary is the master of the underhanded trick, the sleezy innuendos, the backstabbing slander, the cheating,misrepresentations, and downright lies about her opponents. Good for Obama not to join her in this game of trading insult for insult.
Hillary's tactics remind me of a little girl in gradeschool who has lost out in a game and now wants to hurt the winner as much as possible.
It's only going to be all the worse for Her. Obama's just going to sail away in the polls, leaving Hillary far behind.
Posted by: Kenjiro Shoda | Dec 4, 2007 10:23:23 AM
1. Quoting Janet Jackson's 1986 breakaway hit in the title suggests that you're of a particular age group, and of a particular solipsism attributable to that age group wherein you believe everyone else also gets that reference. I bet even Klein's never heard that tune unless he's got an older sibling.
2. Alternately, you could be referencing Larry Craig's "nasty boy" comment about Senator Clinton's husband on MTP back in the day - which would be equally insider, but somehow more acceptable in the game of political journalism.
3. At least right now, Obama appears to be unassailable - unlike Gephardt and Dean in '04. And the fact that Obama is not engaging should strengthen that. Is this a real belief of yours, or is it just a case of referencing past elections to get pundit points?
4. Your larger assertion that Clinton cannot afford to go negative is a great one, and absolutely a key to the contest. "The fun stuff" indeed.
Posted by: Anonymous colleague | Dec 4, 2007 10:23:05 AM
It's not only "silly season", as Obama's said, but also petty season. And that's all people will see Clinton as after acting like a Kindergarten Cop: silly, and petty.
Posted by: Perry | Dec 4, 2007 10:22:28 AM
Clinton's attempt to drag Obama into the snake pit of negativism is intentional. Her strategists have already concluded (based on "second choice" polling data in Iowa) that she can't win Iowa. So what to do? If Obama wins Iowa, he has the millions of dollars to go the distance through Super Tuesday and beyond.
The game here, for Clinton, is to provoke Obama to get nasty, too, causing Edwards to appear above the fray and delivering Iowa to Edwards. She can then polish off Edwards later on. But Obama, if he wins Iowa, will end the Clinton dynasty on the way to the nomination.
It's a desperate maneuver, but it must be seen for what it is: a cheap trick. Good on Obama for not taking the bait.
Posted by: Bingo | Dec 4, 2007 10:12:44 AM
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