Political Punch

Once again it is somewhat amusing to see how the media attemps to label a clear contender in the most recognized media (internet), Ron Paul, as a "second-tier candidate".

With all due respect, it would serve the American Press, especially ABC news, to serve it's charter of being objective and as unbiased as possible in something of such importance as the Primary elections, by presenting candidates in a more nuanced way than solely referring to these Telephone pollings or claiming that the internet part is rigged. There is technology out there today, registering the IP address of voters, hence limiting the risk of people voting several times. Besides this might just happen to be the true opinion of the voters.

Across the board it has been stated time and again, that most Republicans were completely disillusioned at the last election due to the candidacy of G.W. Bush, however this time many are compelled to make a difference, due to a real candidate with a sincere record - Ron Paul.

With the wishes of a Merry Christmas and fair election in America, please receive warm regards from a Republican in London.

As long as we're weighing in here:

Dems: Iowa: Obama; New Hampshire: Clinton

Republicans: Iowa: Huckabee; New Hampshire: McCain

(even a month ago, who would have thought that this Republican prediction would be reasonable)

anecdotally, here in MA, I'm starting to get barraged with ads. (Not because MA actually matters, but because NH gets MA tv and radio signal.) Mitt's ubiquitous, of course. And I just heard a Ron Paul ad on a rock radio station.

James, I'm with you on the republican side. On the democratic side, I'll say Hillary gets it.

I'm going way out on a limb here and roll my own dice! On the Democratic side, I believe that John Edwards will pull off the upset by winning Iowa and Sen. Obama will win in New Hampshire. On the Republican side, I believe that Mike Huckabee will win in Iowa and Sen. John McCain will win New Hampshire.

What I find "incredible" is the fact that so much attention is placed on Iowa and New Hampshire. Especially when you consider that Iowa will only have 57 Democratic delegates and 40 Republican delegates; and New Hampshire only 30 Democratic delegates and 12 Republican delegates. And not all of these are up for grabs, since there a number of unpledged delegates. The number of delegates actually in play for Iowa and New Hampshire are: Democrats -- 45 and 22, respectively; Republicans -- technically ZERO since all are unpledged (but 25 will probably be allocated based on the vote) and 12, respectively (NOTE: The Republicans have sanctioned NH by cutting their delegates in half due to the state moving up their primary).

That is out of a possible 4,051 Democratic delegates (4,417 if sanctions are eventually lifted) and a possible 2,380 Republican delegates (2,516 if sanctions are eventually lifted). AND these are NOT winner take all states. The delegates will be distributed according to the percentage of the vote, provided the candidates meet the pre-designated percentage threshold. So even a third place finisher could end up with just few less delegates than the winner.

Interesting point, James Danley. Incredible that, notwithstanding all the technolgy and polling and tracking, there are still so many unknowns. Remember that only four years ago, the Democratic race was basically settled once John Kerry pulled a surprise in Iowa.

It's Christmas break in Iowa! We had a lengthy discussion a while back regarding Iowa students and whether they would come back to school to participate in the caucuses. A report is now out (by Reuters) that covers the problem in a different light. The campaigns not only hope these students come back to vote in the caucuses, but also be there "to call voters, distribute pamphlets and drive people to the polls." Even those students who did not change their voter registration to an Iowa resident can volunteer to work for the campaigns. If the students DON'T return to school, all of the campaigns (Democrats & Republicans) really suffer. And THAT makes the races even more of a "roll of the dice"!