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Notes from the Huck-a-trail

January 03, 2008 3:55 PM

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's campaign has succeeded because of what he's been able to channel in and out of the air -- message, charm, faith, and popularity.

Huckabee does not have much concrete -- money, staffing, institutional support.

It's hard to think of a primary or caucus state more hospitable to a Huckabee candidacy than Iowa, with its personal politics and large percentage of social conservatives. Without a solid showing tonight the gains he's made in polls in other states such as South Carolina and Florida could vanish in an instant, with little to prop him up.

A win could help him create a tangible campaign.

Huckabee today on the trail did not project the confidence we've seen in previous weeks. He discussed how much Mitt Romney's attacks have hurt him.

"I dunno how it's gonna turn out," he said in Burlington, Iowa, per ABC News' Kevin Chupka. "I'm not gonna try to predict.   I know over the last few days there has been a lot of negative stuff thrown at us, sometimes that tends to get you a little nervous; but as the Air Force guys say, 'if you're not catching flak, you're not over the target.'"

Huck also continued to lower expectations - for the first time I can recall since the Huckaboom a few weeks ago raising the prospect of a third place finish being an achievement.

Yesterday during a bus ride from Fort Dodge to Mason City, asked about the difference for him between a first or second place finish, he said, "either one are pretty remarkable just given the disadvantages we had financially and organizationally.  A number two finish is, I think, one that pushes us forward and gets us on down the track. And a number one I think will be stunning. I mean it has sort of a almost, y'know, almost show-stopping effect because of the the fact there's no way it should happen if you just take a look at how things are supposed to play out. So I think it will have, I've used the term repeatedly, a seismic impact on the political Richter scale."

Today in Grinnell, he added the bronze to his list for the first time in weeks, saying, "if we come in first, second or third it will be a magnificent achievement" because he's been so outspent.

Having recently held the lead here, a weak showing might send the message to Republicans that he cannot run an efficient campaign or take a punch.

He has not been "closing strong" or rallying crowds today. His tone has been subdued, with homilies and little policy. He has been tapping into a socially conservative message and populist message, saying to voters that "you need a president who believes something and will do what he believes" -- an advertisement for his faith and consistency, a dig at Romney's well-documented shifts on issues.

- jpt

January 3, 2008 in 2008: Republicans | Permalink | User Comments (1)

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Posted by: Robert | Jan 3, 2008 4:40:50 PM

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