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ABC News Polling Unit on Clinton Pollster's Memo: 'Full of Overblown Claims'
March 20, 2008 2:05 PM
Clinton senior strategist Mark Penn put out a polling memo today heralding a "shift to Hillary."
Peyton Craighill of the ABC News Polling Unit reports: "Mark Penn’s note is full of overblown claims based on current polling. He’s cherry picking numbers from recent polls. Much of his claim of a Clinton swing is based on the latest tracking data from Gallup in which Clinton is now ahead by 7 points. If you go back two more days Obama has a 7-point lead in a separate USA Today/Gallup poll. CBS has a new poll out today that shows a close 46-43 percent Obama-Clinton race. The CBS poll also has the match ups with McCain at 48-43 percent for Obama-McCain and 46-44 percent for Clinton-McCain. We see little indication of a shift to Clinton. Of the nine polls cited in his note, five of them are not airworthy."
("Airworthy" is a term our Polling Unit uses for polls we can use for our reporting, as opposed to ones so poorly done we are discouraged from mentioning them on air.)
Myself, when it comes to polls, I think of what a wise woman, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said in January:
"One thing I think everybody should've learned after New Hampshire is let's not pay so much attention to polls....I didn't pay attention to polls before New Hampshire and I'm not going to start paying attention to it after New Hampshire."
- jpt
March 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (66)
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She is up and he is down-----in one poll out of five. Just because it made a provacative news spot, doesn't mean it's true. Check out all polls at Real Clear Politics. Nice try, but no cigar.
Posted by: karela | Mar 20, 2008 9:01:05 PM
Other conclusions of the CBS News Poll
"Voters give all three candidates similar marks on their ability to make the right decisions about Iraq"
"31% of registered voters say the media have been harder on Clinton than the others, while 15 percent feel the media have been hardest on Obama and 14 percent say the same of McCain. "
"28% of voters say the media have been easiest on Obama, while just 13 percent say the same of Clinton. Women especially think Clinton has been treated harsher than the other candidates, with 39 percent taking that position."
"39% of African Americans think the media has been hardest on Clinton. Just 24 percent of African Americans say this about Obama."
Posted by: Angel | Mar 20, 2008 8:37:37 PM
Jake,
Can't stand Hillary having some good news?
It's not your place to say anything about how the Clinton camp feels.
Let Obama camp whine or complain about it, not you.
That's definitely not the role for a journalist.
Posted by: Sam | Mar 20, 2008 8:34:08 PM
Obama grassroots is still connected and still growing.
Just building up our muscles for the GE.
Thanks Hillary.
Posted by: JB | Mar 20, 2008 8:00:36 PM
I remember all the "Obama is toast" talk before super Tuesday.
Guess what you guys were wrong then and is wrong now. Do you really think after all this damage Hillary is doing,, Obama supporters are going to vote for her in November? Don't hold your breath!
If you guys are Obama supporters and have doubts about him losing in November then he does not need weaklings on his side anyway. This issue will not hold up. Most smart people know that you can't blame Obama for what someone else says just like no one blames Hillary for Ferraro's comments. The Clintons are the most scandulous of all the politicians.
Posted by: Paula | Mar 20, 2008 7:48:51 PM
Here it comes. Crying into the latte.
Posted by: cordelia525 | Mar 20, 2008 7:43:48 PM
Wow. Are you guys FINALLY now going to start calling Hillary on her crap? I know you've been cowed since she pulled her whole "the media is being mean to me" temper tantrum.
Posted by: Kat | Mar 20, 2008 7:30:55 PM
So the new system is: Have a bunch of primaries, wait until someone known to your opposition has 15 seconds of provocative statements aired endlessly on the MSM, take a poll and declare the winner. I like the delegate system better.
Posted by: Jim B | Mar 20, 2008 7:24:07 PM
Dear Jake,
just when i had almost given up on main stream media for any correct info and reporting..as it all seemed to be so FOR Clinton ignoring so much , i am glad that you finally had the courage to bring it up and throw light on a lot of issues people need to know,
Pls keep up your good work ..or I quit ABC news again.
Posted by: Dr. t | Mar 20, 2008 7:23:16 PM
There is a clear shift away from BHO whether the pollsters want to believe or not. We are a group of 10 people ( family + friends) who have moved from
BHO to HRC and to McCain if BHO is the nominee. We are residing in bayarea (CA) which is one of the most liberal places and if this is happening in CA, I would assume that it could be happening else where.
We have decided to not vote for a hypocrite and a liar
Posted by: Kuttan | Mar 20, 2008 6:52:36 PM
YOU GO DREW!!!
Posted by: WV | Mar 20, 2008 6:44:08 PM
A website expressing common sense and logic, oh my. I think we have an oasis here. On a serious note, I was also puzzled by these stories proclaiming Clinton's rise and Obama's great descent because I saw the same polls that the ABC pollster is citing. If anything, there just appears to be chaos at the moment, with polls in flux. My guess is it will take about a week or so to know where things really stand.
Posted by: mg | Mar 20, 2008 6:44:04 PM
i don't have great respect for you or your work, for that matter. i've read some of your recent posts and they've been heavily, scathingly anti-obama, starting with your deceitful messianic moment. and although i have to do you justice on the justness of your present work (who knows how just?), im not buying it that somehow along the way you've experienced an epiphany and all of a sudden you're a serious journalist, with the required non-partisanship.
Posted by: lupercal | Mar 20, 2008 6:40:56 PM
Jake-
Have you seen the light?
It seems as though you have finally lost your cool with the Clinton lying liars?
What is the fear in exposing the Clinton lies anyway with the MSM?
The notion that the Clintons' have been fully vetted, and that media has put them under a microscope is such a farce...yet the kid gloves stay on.
I hope to see some more honest reporting for a change.
Posted by: AntiMud2008 | Mar 20, 2008 6:29:39 PM
She is up he is down and it will continue. Thank goodness only one more caucus left, Guam.
Posted by: Ken | Mar 20, 2008 5:47:25 PM
Is anyone suprised that the Clinton camp would put out another desperate attempt to deceive the people and prevent superdelegate spill-over to Obama? Must be they are worried about the speech he gave on race, which has been described as history-making and had wide appeal, even to Republicans.
There is no valid evidence of a shift in favorability toward Hillary. If there are results of severla polls available, you report them all. You dont just cherry pick one that favors you and claim your ahead based on it.
(Never mind the fact that it has already been established as a virtual mathematical impossibility for Hillary to catch up to Obama in delegates won)
Posted by: Mike Denhof | Mar 20, 2008 5:31:51 PM
Obama is not viable to the independents.
His shifting rhetoric on IRAQ, NAFTA and NCLB has made him unreliable.
Lecturing independents on race after using devisive tactics in South Carolina offends even the most forgiving.
Posted by: hhkeller | Mar 20, 2008 4:47:53 PM
these media people make their living
stirring we little people up. Please look at the issues-Nc,Pa, Indiana,WVA,and others-you are right if kerry thinks the superdelegates should go with the vote of the state-he should change is vote. Please try and focus on the issues that face us now and in the future. not the stuff that is not going to help any of us.
Posted by: jgaw | Mar 20, 2008 4:09:51 PM
Let's see what the polls look like after people become aware of the documented inexperience coming out of the Clinton papers. Or, once Americans learn about the Barrett Report. Or, if the media starts blasting Clinton for her association with the "Family"--anyone happen to catch THAT story about Clinton's religious affiliations?
Posted by: Jaine | Mar 20, 2008 4:01:59 PM
Jay, since you mentioned Wright & Rezko issues, are you not aware of Clinton's Rev. Manning, and the jailed illegal fund raiser Hsu? Please inform yourself first.
Posted by: hubbs | Mar 20, 2008 4:00:11 PM
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