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Hillary and Barack Are Sifting

March 11, 2008 9:36 AM

As the race for delegates -- any delegates -- intensifies, it's worth noting that a caucus victory in itself is not enough.

Many states that run caucuses have what is called a "sifting" process -- caucus night is the beginning, not the end, of the convoluted rules.

As the Associated Press has reported "if one side is unable to rally its supporters at any step along the way, it risks losing national delegates, much like Gary Hart did in 1984. Hart fared well in initial party caucuses when he ran for the Democratic nomination in 1984, only to see some of those delegates go to Walter Mondale at the state conventions, said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who counted delegates for Mondale. Mondale went on to win the nomination before losing badly in the general election to Ronald Reagan.

"'If you're Gary Hart, you might say they got stolen,' Devine said. 'The fact is our campaign recognized that the first tier of the caucus process was not the end, it was the beginning.'"

No delegates have officially been assigned in Iowa, for instance, where caucus night Obama led 38% to Clinton's 29%. Media organizations projected what that would mean -- but nothing was or is official yet.

Iowa holds County Conventions on March 15, Congressional District Conventions on April 26 (when 29 delegates will be elected) then the State Convention in June, where 16 delegates will be elected.

All of these steps are important. Delegates can change their alliances as soon as at the County Conventions.

And as David P. Redlawsk at the Britannica Blog notes, "across Iowa some 30% of all county convention delegates are John Edwards supporters (more than Clinton has by a handful), and those folks may have to make a choice. The choice they make may determine whether Clinton or Obama comes out of Iowa with the bulk of our national delegates – either one could conceivably pick up all 14 of Edwards’ potential delegates. Normally that wouldn’t matter much, but this time around every delegate may make a difference.

"So what’s going to happen? Well, in my county – Johnson County, home of the University of Iowa – the Edwards delegation (which, for full disclosure, I lead) will attempt to remain together, to elect our own delegates pledged to Edwards to the District and State conventions. If we are successful in doing this, and if Edwards supporters in other counties in our district do the same, the Edwards delegation could be a major factor in determining what happens in April and June. We may get to elect our own national convention delegates or we may end up aligning with one of the other candidates, providing a significant boost to him or her."

Redlawsk says that "at least locally, only the Obama campaign has been making efforts to woo Edwards delegates. The Clinton campaign seems to be completely missing in action. If this is the case throughout Iowa, don’t be surprised if in April Obama is able to pad his delegate count by strategically continuing to campaign for the hearts and minds of county, district, and state convention delegates."

But elsewhere, there are anecdotal reports on liberal websites of Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign attempted to close the delegate gap as caucuses proceed to their second phase…picking off those pledged delegates, who are also not legally bound to vote for any candidate.

One writer in Adams County, Colorado, notes that at the "assembly" he attended last weekend -- the second phase of the Colorado Caucus -- he watched Obama's lead shrink from 55-45, his margin of victory, to  50-50.

"The same, I hear, is happening in other counties. Clinton actually still has a paid operation here working these county assemblies. At these county assemblies, delegates are chosen for the state convention, where, finally, the delegation to the national convention is chosen. So Adams county will be sending the same number of votes for Clinton as for Obama to the state convention. If, as anecdotally appears to be the case, Clinton does five points better at county than on caucus night, you could see her gaining several delegates that are currently being given to Obama. Potentially as many as 5-6. Most caucus states have similar systems, btw."

DailyKos has a round-up which notes that in Douglas County, Colo., the caucus night tally of 63% to 37% has now shifted to 61% to 39% -- Clinton  gained 2% of the pledged delegates at the Douglas County assembly. 

Josh Micah Marshall's Talking Points Memo is admirably on top of this story as well, noting Clinton's distinction in a Newsweek interview among "automatic delegates" (her campaign's Orwellian term for superdelegates), pledged delegates, and caucus delegates, in which she seemed to fuel what Roger Simon of the Politico reported weeks ago, that the Clintons were going to try to flip pledged delegates. (The Clinton campaign denied it would try to poach, as opposed to sift.)

"I have a very close race with Senator Obama," Clinton told Newsweek. "There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to."

ALL of this is within the rules.

- jpt

March 11, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (51)

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The GOP wants obama to be the dem nomination - so no matter who wins the presidency Mccain or Obama - either way there is a republican in the white house. Both want the war to continue..don't believe it? Read the facts about obama that the mainstream media doesn't tell you about.

Posted by: Lisa | Mar 13, 2008 12:17:59 AM

If Hillary Clinton wins by either using stealing delegates, including Michigan and Florida tallies as is (without re-votes), or using superdelegates, I can almost guarantee riots.

And I can guarantee that the vast majority of black people will never vote for her. Al Sharpton is planning on bringing a law suit if they try anything that disenfranchises voters (such as the many people who even NPR has reported did not vote because they knew the rules) in Florida.

Keep the hope people. We will not let the Hillary Clinton campaign get away with this kind of hypocrisy and theft of democracy.

Posted by: SuperdelegationNation | Mar 12, 2008 3:47:05 AM

I think the way of selecting a candidate by caucus should be banned in all of the states, including Iowa. Caucuses only give the people who have time to participate a role in selecting the candidate. They are only for a few hours and if you’re a little late to bad, you’re out. Here in Washington State the parties decided to have caucuses this year, I had to work during the caucus and was unable to attend. I feel cheated out of my vote and hope someone files a lawsuit to stop this practice of selecting a candidate by caucuses. I think it leaves out a large number of voters who would like to participate.

Posted by: bb420d | Mar 11, 2008 10:11:29 PM

geevill, Greg Craig has worked on national security/foreign affairs - under Bill Clinton's adminsitration. according to the Washington Post (11/19/98), "Craig was the State Department's director of policy planning,... He also served as the U.S. special coordinator on Tibet, managing a critical piece of the Sino-American relationship."

He has also had some interesting clients. As an attorney, he defended William Jefferson Clinton - during his impeachment trial - for lying to the American people.

Posted by: Mara | Mar 11, 2008 7:27:25 PM

How common it is of ABC to cover up and lie for Democrats. Governor of new York and you cannot even say that he was a democrat. If that would have been a republican, it would have been your lead story and republican would have been mentioned in every sentence.
If I were standing in front of you I would spit right in your bias face.

Posted by: Don Vande Zande | Mar 11, 2008 6:51:30 PM

Caucuses allow for paid political activist to participate as well as individuals from other parties to influence the vote. You figure out who has spent the most money.

Posted by: Hami | Mar 11, 2008 3:36:49 PM

Well said and AMEN SadStateOfAffairs

Posted by: Joel | Mar 11, 2008 3:32:37 PM

Oh Come ON!! Barack doesn't need to sift for delegates when he can get them the old fashion (chicago/Capone)way. Just continue threatening them into submission. Sheeesh......don't make it so complicated.

Posted by: SadStateOfAffairs | Mar 11, 2008 3:26:08 PM

Note to antoineb: Senator Clinton did not campaign in FL and MI. On the other hand, Obama had major advertising in FL prior to the FL primary.

Posted by: cappamore | Mar 11, 2008 2:33:09 PM

It is the one inviolable rule of party politics; don't promote the other party's candidate at the expense of your own.
In the past couple of weeks, Senator Hillary Clinton has violated that cardinal rule again and again.
She violated one other by campaigning in FL and MI
CLINTON-BUSH DINASTY (Following chelsea-jeb in 2012?)

Posted by: antoineb | Mar 11, 2008 1:50:36 PM

why does ABC News include the Michigan and Florida popular vote and delgates in their count pushed on their Politics home page?

No other major media outlet is doing this

It is misleading and confusing and should reflect the actual state of the race and through today Florida and Michigan are not seated

Posted by: alison | Mar 11, 2008 1:19:37 PM

Look at this Obama policy adviser Greg Craig. You want this guy working on National Security?

Mr. Craig has had many controversial and high profile clients during his career. In one of his first high-profile cases,
Mr. Craig represented John Hinckley, Jr., the would-be assassin of President Ronald Reagan in 1981-1982. Craig was the architect of Hinkley's successful insanity defense.[8]

He represented his former boss, Senator Edward Kennedy, during the 1991 rape trial of William Kennedy Smith.[9]

Posted by: geevill | Mar 11, 2008 1:17:43 PM

Let us look at the current situation from the different perspective and assume the hypothetical situation that Clinton was out in super Tuesday. The media would have lost lots of advertising revenue because the viewership would have lost to some junk serial or Reality show as there is less to discuss about Obama's past and nothing to discuss about McCain. I saw two reference to McCain in the abcnews Political Headlines. (Both the headlines were for VP.) Now, assume that both select woman VP(Condi Rice for McCain and also assume that Obama would have selected woman other than Hillary). So, there would be very few spark between democrats and republicans. The election coverage would gain momentum in last couple of months and the voters would have been scratching their head and saying that both guys have woman VP and one of the guy says he opposed the war and the other guys says he supported war and will stay in Iraq for sometime. Does any one of them is really useful? Hopefully not. Economy has further tanked. Should I flip my coin and vote or should I buy some beer instead of wasting $4/gallon on gas?

Posted by: JS | Mar 11, 2008 1:03:30 PM

You are not a hard-working democrat if you will help put a Republican in the White House over anyone who believes in core Democratic values. Hard-working, maybe, but not a democrat.

Posted by: LOM | Mar 11, 2008 12:36:13 PM

The democratic process is sooooo ridiculous. If McCain is elected president it has nothing to do with Hillary or Obama but everything to do with people just preferring things to be SIMPLE. My goodness, there is a caucus, a primary, wait the caucus isn't official, and then in Texas a caucus and a primary. All these processes and no one is still at the goal of 2024 or is 2025. Somehow i feel like that number changed before my very eyes and I am left wondering how did that change to a 4. The democratic party needs to review their nominating process for the next 4 years. MAKE IT SIMPLE!!!

Posted by: mona | Mar 11, 2008 12:28:31 PM

I will vote for McCain if Hillary is nominated. Her throw the kitchen, racially cloaked politics doesn't deserve my vote. The media knows it, as we all do. She's determined to destroy a good person. He may not be perfect, but I see and hear in him the good he trying to do for the country.

Remember: United we stand, divided we fall.

As an honest, hard working democrat, I will vote republican before I stand for a woman who is obviously trying to deceitfully steal the election from Senator Obama.

Posted by: DB | Mar 11, 2008 12:16:57 PM

so for all her bluster about the will of the people, it still boils down to backdoor powerbroking. You can't win the vote, then work the politics. If Obama was so overtly trying to overturn these processes, you would be callign foul!

Posted by: Louis | Mar 11, 2008 12:14:30 PM

What Rhetoric!

Did Hillary fight through to get where she is now by herself or is it because her husband's presidency that gave her easy ride? What Experience is she mentioning or claiming to have, that would make her commander in chief?? Has she ever been on a decision making position at all that has affected AMERICANS?? Is she surrounded by super delegates because of her husband or herself? Who is running the presidency, Bill or Hillary? Is Bill Clinton fighting for His third term in the white house?

Hillary and her husband Bill Clinton are big players, I don’t think they are after the success of the Democratic Party rather they are feeding their own egos. Her selfish speech explains that she is endorsing Senator McCain as a fellow contestant and putting Senator Obama down as an opponent republican. I don’t think she has any stand at all to run the presidency against Senator McCain, because she has already endorsed him to be the best president who brings a life time experience. Who do you think is going to win the battle over a life time experience? Of course it is Senator John McCain who has 50+ years experience who is now 71 years old. That is why I am saying she is running a campaign against Senator Obama, the DEMOCRATIC PARTY and herself. And watch! Senator McCain will use this against her or Obama and the Democratic Party on the general election. I have a message for Senator Clinton that Senator Obama is not your opponent rather he is your party met or contestant.

Both the Clinton’s are looking for to have a great time in the white house, spending their late life in comfort. That is why they are fighting hard. She is not tested in her life time to take up 3 am phone call or to be a president. All what she claims to have doesn’t put her right above Senator Obama. As far as the truth goes this is the biggest failure of the Democratic Party failing to intervene in this circumstance and take a stand to stop the Senator’s nasty rhetoric. If they are not doing anything about it and if the so called super delegates shift towards Clinton ignoring the voice of the delegates and independent and democratic voters…. Then my vote goes to Senator John McCain at the general election.

Posted by: nick | Mar 11, 2008 12:06:03 PM

Smarts helps win an election, and smarts helps run a country.

Hillary has solutions for the tough issues we face!

God bless Hillary and the USA.

Posted by: Elizabeth | Mar 11, 2008 12:00:53 PM

I think that MI and FL should be seated at 50/50 and the superdelegates can cast their vote as they choose. I don't see anything else as being viewed as fair by either camp.

Go Hillary!

Posted by: LOM | Mar 11, 2008 11:51:13 AM

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