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Q: Did the 1992 Race Really Go Until June Like Bill Clinton Says? (A: Not Really)
March 28, 2008 5:38 PM
In his efforts to solicit patience from voters and Democratic officials alike, former president Bill Clinton constantly tells voters that the 1992 nomination race kept going until June.
"All these people that tell you, 'Aw we oughta shut this thing down now the Democrats are so divided – that’s a bunch of bull," he said today in Kannapolis, North Carolina. "I didn't get enough votes to be nominated until June the 2nd, 1992."
That is literally true. Bill Clinton did not secure enough delegates through the primary and caucus process until the California primary, June 2, 1992.
But it is not politically true.
Bill Clinton had sewn up the nomination long before then. Months before then.
Moreover, the first real contest that year was on February 18, 1992. (No one competed in the Iowa caucuses since Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, was a candidate that year) The first real contest this year, the Iowa caucus, was January 3, 2008. So you'd also expect that race to last later in the calendar -- it started more than a month and a half later.
But regardless of that, here are some key dates for that 1992 race that indicate how misleading this argument is.
February 18, 1992 -- Sen. Paul Tsongas, D-Mass., wins New Hampshire primary. A scandal-plagued Gov. Bill Clinton comes in second.
February 20, 1992 -- San Diego Union-Tribune headline: "Tsongas got most votes, but Clinton says he won".
February 25, 1992 -- Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., wins the South Dakota primary.
March 3, 1992 -- Clinton wins Georgia. Tsongas wins Maryland. Harkin wins Minnesota and Idaho. Former California governor Jerry Brown wins Colorado. Still all very much up for grabs.
March 5, 1992 -- With no money, Kerrey ends his campaign. "We were ready to go full throttle," Kerrey says, "but unfortunately we ran out of gas."
March 7, 1992 -- Clinton wins South Carolina.
Harkin announces he will drop out.
March 10, 1992 -- Clinton cleans up on Super Tuesday, winning Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas. Tsongas wins Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Kerrey: "I would say he's got a very clear path to the nomination. But it's not a path without mine fields. There are still things out there that he's got to worry about. He's got to win."
Jim Lehrer on PBS: "David, how close is Bill Clinton to being the Democratic nominee tonight?"
David Gergen: "He's on the verge."
March 17, 1992 -- Clinton wins Illinois.
At this point, it becomes clear Clinton will be the nominee. Tsongas drops out. Only Brown remains in the race.
March 20, 1992 -- The Dallas Morning News: "Former Sen. Paul Tsongas abruptly halted his presidential candidacy on Thursday, effectively ending the Democratic contest and turning the primary campaign into a mop-up operation for Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. 'It was clear that we did not have the resources necessary to fight the media war in (the April 7) New York (primary),' Mr. Tsongas told a packed crowd of supporters in Boston."
The Boston Herald: "A no-holds-barred presidential race between Democrat Bill Clinton and President George Bush - in a clash of generations and vastly different values - was all but sealed yesterday as Paul E. Tsongas ended his quest for the Democratic nomination."
March 24, 1992 -- Brown wins Connecticut. Clinton holds a seven-to-one lead in delegates.
March 26, 1992 -- Harkin endorses Clinton, expressing concern that the fight between Clinton and Brown will cause divisions in the party that would hurt the nominee in November.
"I say it's time for Democrats to link arms, dig in our heels, set our sights to work together to put Bill Clinton in the White House in 1992," Harkin says.
Harkin is the first of Clinton's former opponents to endorse him, and the party begins to officially rally around the presumptive nominee.
April 1, 1992 -- Former President Jimmy Carter endorses Clinton, calling him "an honest, decent, competent, idealistic, practical man" who doesn't deserve to have his character questioned. "Pretty obviously, Gov. Clinton is going to get the nomination," Carter says.
April 4, 1992 -- Before the New York primary, Gov. Mario Cuomo says Clinton would be a "superb president."
April 8, 1992 -- Bryant Gumbel: "Good morning. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, call him flawed, call him slick, but call him a winner this morning. He swept the primaries in New York, Kansas and Wisconsin. Big strides toward the Democratic nomination that seem his for the taking today, Wednesday, April the 8th, 1992."
As a slap in Brown's face, Tsongas -- no longer in the race -- comes in second in New York.
April 12, 1992 -- House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Missouri, endorses Clinton. "Bill Clinton will be the kind of president the United States needs to recapture our economic strength and leadership in the post-Cold War world," Gephardt says.
House Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash: "All the dominoes are falling in favor of Clinton. He is going to be the nominee."
At the California Democratic convention, Brown says Clinton is likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee, and says he will back Clinton if he is nominated.
Austin American-Statesman: "Brown strongly indicated that, having lost the New York primary Tuesday, he will campaign as a crusader for political change rather than as a serious contender for nomination. Ron Brown, national party chairman, said the comments were 'very positive' and hinted that the contest has entered a new phase. The two met privately earlier in the day."
April 14, 1992 -- Clinton wins the final round of Virginia's caucuses. "Uncommitted" comes in a strong second, Brown comes in a distant third.
April 19, 1992 - Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, D-Maine, endorses Clinton.
Earth Day, 1992 - Clinton challenges President George H.W. Bush to a face-to-face debate on the environment.
April 28, 1992 -- Clinton wins Pennsylvania primary, having earned 1,466 of the 2,145 delegates needed to win. Brown has 316 delegates.
And on and on...
This notion that the 1992 presidential race was not over until June is literally true. But it was truly over about five or six weeks after the New Hampshire primary.
- jpt
March 28, 2008 in Weblogs | Permalink | User Comments (40)
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Why can people ask Dean to quit. Chairman should never put influence on who should quit or who should stay. This is called "pressure". This is not your job. Apparently, Dean is not doing his job. So, he should quit!
Good bye Mr. Dean.
Hillary, stay strong. We are behind you.
Posted by: Agnes | Mar 30, 2008 12:57:52 AM
Jake,
Doesn't matter, Hillary has every GD right to stay in the race until it's over - at the convention.
Obama senses that there is going to be backlash against the call for HRC to quit by his backers, that's why he came out to state that HRC can stay as long as she wants. The truth is, it is not up to Obama and his surrogates to shut down the democratic process as they doing in FL and MI. The Democrats will pay heavily for not allowing these two states to revote.
Posted by: Sam | Mar 29, 2008 10:29:00 PM
My father died that year and I went to South Fallsburg for the birthday intensive of Gurumayi Chidvilasananda.
Elizabeth Holzman entered the N.Y. senatorial race dividing the women's vote for Geraldine Ferraro.
I don't even know who the democratic nominee ended up being.
Gov. Clinton famously told Jerry Brown to "chill" in one televised debate.
Jerry Brown still didn't think it was over despite the facts you site. He brought Jesse Jackson into the fight offering him the second spot.
Brown excited his followers with the idea of a Brown-Jackson ticket even though his chances of winning were nil.
Posted by: Eddie Bryan | Mar 29, 2008 9:26:45 PM
Right On Firefighter!
Posted by: irma | Mar 29, 2008 5:07:44 PM
Yes?? He didn't mis-speak, he told the truth. Meaning he felt Jerry Brown was still in the race. There was also a different dynamic going on, the more people got to know Bill over the long period, the more support he got. Unlike Obama. Short term, sure he "seems likeable enough" until you really get to know him; then yuk! Your momentum and likeability have DEFLATED. Meanwhile, Hillary's voting numbers are going up....BO is not getting the overwhelming votes. They are neck and neck and she has the momentum. Of course BO would want her to drop out now, he's used to winning by eliminating his opponents any way he can before people really get to know him. Well, not this time!
Posted by: irma | Mar 29, 2008 5:05:55 PM
The Obama people need to realize that they need the votes of the Hillary supporters in the general election. We are just as devoted to our candidate as they are. Neither candidate is capable of winning the nomination without the votes of the super delegates. This thing must play out until the bitter end, and yes by the rules. Whether the Obama people like it or not the super's are free to vote for whomever they choose. Only after the super's have voted will the nomination be decided. If Hillary is forced out before hand because the Obama supporters or the DNC don't like her chances, Obama will never gain the votes of the Hillary supporters.
Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 29, 2008 2:59:33 PM
The race isn't over until the fat lady sings (no offense to any mass challenged females just using a cliche)
I will state up front that I am a disgruntled conservative, who at this point has conceeded control of the legislative branch to the Democrats and fear both a McCain victory or loss.
As an historian I find this election fascinating. The Democrats put up a dynamic young speaker with absolutely not track record of accomplishment other than a successful educational career and a former first lady who is convinced previous residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue counts as executive experience. The Repulicans put up a candidate who has made his living (post military service) as a professional politician. McCain is touted as an experienced military leader - explain to me how someone who never functioned at flag rank in the navy is a military executive? He flew combat missions, at best he commanded 3 other pilots, he did not devise combat strategy. His suffering and how he conducted himself as a POW is inspirational and something I am certain I could not have survived. His conduct was exemplary and speaks volumes of his character and strength of beliefs, but has he shown the same loyalty to beliefs since then? Or has he become a political opportunist.
I say Hillary should stay - a floor fight at the convention will produce a spirited general election.
Personally none of these candidates individually excite me , but together boy what a brawl we have building.
Posted by: snilloctjc | Mar 29, 2008 9:34:24 AM
Staying in the race means simply that Hillary is doing the dirty work for McCain. She cannot win the nomination, nobody will take the nomination from an African-American and give it to her. Nobody will take on that historical responsibility. She has to get out and give time to Obama to concentrate his effort on McCain. Game is over, no more distraction from inside. Democrats have to get together behind Barak and win the White House. God bless America and God bless Obama. OBAMA08.
Posted by: BKMC | Mar 29, 2008 8:34:28 AM
America will speak come April 22. Penn is a State who will represent the US. It does not matter what numbers Obama leads over Hillary. What it matters is the american people will be speaking from thier heart and mind.. that they want a president who is for America and not for a particular ethnic group, for the anger of yesteryears, for affirmative action, and so forth. One nation, one vote for Hillary is enough to shout to the whole world that Americans do not want a dummy president of the Kennyday, the Ted Turner CNN, the MNBC, and those who suppressed the truth from public about Obama. Had it been earlier,, there couldnot have been this problem because Obama will not make it in the super Tuesday priamry.
Posted by: asd | Mar 29, 2008 1:53:41 AM
The Clintons have been lying to the public for years now. Is anybody surprised by their lie about Bill Clinton's presidential race not being over until June? Hillary is just buying time so that she can destroy Obama's chances of winning the general election in November.
Posted by: Cactusflower | Mar 29, 2008 1:40:19 AM
Interesting... definitely creative spin from the Clinton's, but what else is new?
I don't think Hillary should drop out. There are still people out there in elections that have't happened yet, that want to vote for her. And, who knows... some thing could happen... a scandal, like John McCain's lobbist, or a Gennifer Flowers, etc. I just want her to turn down the nastiness. It's really very unbecoming of a person who wants to be president. And it's really unbecoming of a former president, too.
Posted by: Cindy | Mar 28, 2008 10:31:03 PM
Isn't it mathematically impossible for Obama to achieve enough delegates also due to the problems in FL and MI?
Why is it never reported in the news that Hillary has the lead by a decent margin in Electoral Vote predictions? Her 263 to his 202
Posted by: PaseoDelMar | Mar 28, 2008 10:13:05 PM
The difference in this race is that the two candidates are nearly equal in the popular vote and neither has enough pledged delegates yet. So folks, that's where we are and that's what matters.
Posted by: s. valenti | Mar 28, 2008 9:00:30 PM
"Friction" posted this questioning statement:
HRC claims she won Texas... but she only won the Primaries... the Caucuses are projected to go to Obama which would result in an overall Delegate advantage to him. The HRC campaign is making voting inconsistency claims in the counting of the Caucus votes to delay the impact of HRC losing Texas. Really ... how long does it take to count the Caucus votes when they number one tenth or less of the Primary votes?
Reply:
6000 people are expected to praticipate in a "convention" tomorrow in El Paso county alone. Do not know the numbers for rest of Tx.
It has been an absolute mess. State Dem. party "quit" counting results weeks ago. will try to sort out things at "conventions".
"Credentials committee" had so many complaints of irregularities they "gave up", now call for each faction to question credentials of other at convention.
If one has not participated in a caucus, then they should not try to comment on the validity or non-validity of such.
I participated as an HRC supporter, had to vote, then go back that night to caucus. There is absolutely nothing democratic about a caucus. A caucus defies every premise of "one person - one vote. A caucus is merely and tragically "voter suppression" overseen by the Democratic party, supposedly giving it legitimacy.
I state this as a winner not a loser numbers-wise, my precinct had 15 delegates, we HRC supporters won 10, Obama's 5. Same pattern throughout the county.
Yet I came away feeling like a loser Democracy wise, because of the process, and those it excludes for one reason or another. I would merely like to vote once, go home, watch the returns, and feel like every vote mattered equally. Mine and yours, regardless of our choices.
Every American should be able to do just that. With no party interference!
Posted by: MC | Mar 28, 2008 8:23:53 PM
so, the money Hillary got for the people of New York-after 911. should not be held against her? If she had gotten her seat in the senate and just voted present anytime there were issues I guess you fans of obama would be happy.-because you would find some way to turn that against her.
Can someone explain to me why the reason leahy and others are asking her to drop out because: They do not want anything else negative to come out about obama that mccain can use on him in the fall.
Whatever happened to supporting the "sour grape" democrates-bradley,kerry,dean,richardson, and co.
want ram it down our throats that obama is ready and qualified to be president.
He has nothing original-he copies Hillary.
the only thing original from obama is:
Resko, rev. wright.
Please I hope we have some statesmen in the superdelegates and will do what is right for the country in the longrun
I am all for writing her name in. or whatever it takes (legally) to give people the right to vote for hillary if they want to.
Leahy and co. should be ashamed. and Dean needs to go. When Terry Mc. was over the dnc, we didn't have anything like this mess. I think it is so hard for Hillary supporters to just let this go is we know (and so does everyone else) of the two she is the most qualified.
Posted by: jgaw | Mar 28, 2008 8:04:26 PM
I'm sure all the people in the states coming would like thier vote to count it seems only people who have already voted are in a hurry for Hillary to drop out do you think that is fair.
Posted by: Bishop | Mar 28, 2008 7:40:30 PM
jn: What planet are you on? Obama won Iowa,SC, he was doing well at the begining, the problem for him is when he has to run in a primary that does not include a large number of blacks he (except for Wisconsin) he can't win!
Posted by: russell | Mar 28, 2008 7:37:49 PM
I'm for democrat in Florida, if my vote doesn't count in the primary it will count in the general... but for John McCain.
Well hopfully he will lose.I wouldn't want to hear your whinning for the next four year. You could write Hillary in if you feel that passionate for her
Posted by: PDC | Mar 28, 2008 7:37:41 PM
If the other candidates had backed out earlier ...Tsongas and Kerrey would have gone longer...
the only reason Hillary got to go this long is because she had Bills "system" behind her.
so if they wanted to challenge him (and they could have if they had held on just a little and you remember the scandals during that race) ...
it could have gone on until june and Bill would not have won in the fall.
Posted by: dl | Mar 28, 2008 7:20:37 PM
...it would be such a let down to those states if there voices/votes did not count for much and the nominee was picked for them...
I believe HRC's strategy with respect to the Superdelegates is to discount the voices/votes of the completed primaries. Obama has the lead in Pleadge delegates and popular vote. HRC is mathematically out of the running. Yet, she is lobbying the SuperDs to override the voices/votes of the general population.
HRC claims she won Texas... but she only won the Primaries... the Caucuses are projected to go to Obama which would result in an overall Delegate advantage to him. The HRC campaign is making voting inconsistency claims in the counting of the Caucus votes to delay the impact of HRC losing Texas. Really ... how long does it take to count the Caucus votes when they number one tenth or less of the Primary votes?
Posted by: Friction | Mar 28, 2008 7:10:20 PM
Like Jesse Jackson says " It ain't over till it's over,then it ain't over"! Well said Jesse!
Posted by: russell | Mar 28, 2008 7:08:02 PM
The National Journal runs an interesting interview with GOP media strategist Mark McKinnon who says he still leave Sen. John McCain's campaign if Sen. Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination.
"Well, this goes back to a memo that I wrote to the campaign when I came aboard more than a year and a half ago, and I simply let them know that I had spent time with Obama and read his book and I like the guy. I think he has strong character and a fascinating life story, and I disagree with him fundamentally on issues like Iraq and trade and a number of others. But I just flashed forward to the improbable scenario, at that time seemingly improbable, that John McCain and Barack Obama might face off against one other. And I just told them at the time that I thought that I would be uncomfortable being on the front lines -- being as aggressive as you need to be in a presidential campaign -- and not only that I would be uncomfortable, but that it would be bad for the campaign, and that if that circumstance were to come to be, that I would just take a step to the sidelines and continue to support John McCain 100 percent and be No. 1 fan and cheerleader. But just kind of take myself out of the front lines."
Posted by: RepTex | Mar 28, 2008 6:55:35 PM
So Geraldine Ferraro WAS right. If Obama was a white man he would have all his competitors dropping out and endorsing him and party leaders behind him already. And please note, Bill Clinton was younger and had less foreign policy experience than Barack Obama during the 1992 primary.
Posted by: ROB | Mar 28, 2008 6:50:43 PM
Couldn't a John Edwards endorsement speed up things a bit?
Edwards' former donors broke toward Obama by a 2-to-1 margin over Hillary in February, the first full month after Edwards dropped out of the Democratic presidential nomination fight.
Posted by: Herta | Mar 28, 2008 6:49:14 PM
"It doesn't matter if Hillary's chance is 5% or 50%, let the people vote. If you are so sure Obama is going to win then sit back relax and let it play out."
Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:23:25 PM
----------------------------------------
Firefighter, no one is going to stop the voting, so that is not the point. The point is that for Hilliary to actually "win" the nomination (fairly) at this point being so far behind, she would have to destroy the whole party and the delegate system. Therefore, a reasonable person, who would like to honor the clear wishes of the people who have voted by the rules and are abiding by the rules, could do the honorable thing, and withdraw to preserve party unity. Why would you want to be the "spoiler" and hope to maintain credibility after the voting has run its course, spending valuable time and money to do the work that the opposing party should be doing? Moreover, she is doing a disservice to her supporters by building false hopes. You can bet that if the shoe were on the other foot, and she were in the lead by such a margin that Sen. Obama carries, she would already have declared victory. And her supporters would resent the petty politics of an opponent who would be willing to play the crass games that she is playing, with the party and with the electorate.
Posted by: Justinteim | Mar 28, 2008 6:40:40 PM
everytime someone tells Hillary to drop out, they are the ones that are causing conflict within the party. SHE DOES NOT WANT TO DROP OUT. DO OBAMA SUPPORTERS UNDERSTAND THE WORD 'NO'. you all sound like 3 years, why, why ,why. go to your rooms and come back out in june when everyone has had a chance to vote.
Posted by: D | Mar 28, 2008 6:38:56 PM
I'm for democrat in Florida, if my vote doesn't count in the primary it will count in the general... but for John McCain.
Posted by: Florida Voter | Mar 28, 2008 6:35:38 PM
More revisionist Clinton history. Seriously... would you even buy a used car from these people?
Posted by: Patrick | Mar 28, 2008 6:34:42 PM
Both canidates had the right to keep going.
I think it is un-American to expect people to drop out of a race to run for President.
Because a few government officials think so.
This time is for the people to vote for who they want.
Does Anyone in the DNC care about the people????
Posted by: seah | Mar 28, 2008 6:28:41 PM
Firefighter...
We're not talking about a halfway point here. Explain to me how Hillary does it at this point to overtake the delegate lead? All the Hill supporters seem to be glancing over that fact.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~What.Say.Me...
It doesn't matter if Hillary's chance is 5% or 50%, let the people vote. If you are so sure Obama is going to win then sit back relax and let it play out.
Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:23:25 PM
its not over till everyone has voted. is obama willing work for his votes? HILLARY , MAKE'EM SQUIRM.
Posted by: D | Mar 28, 2008 6:22:30 PM
Firefighter...
We're not talking about a halfway point here. Explain to me how Hillary does it at this point to overtake the delegate lead? All the Hill supporters seem to be glancing over that fact.
Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:13:45 PM
I love you Jake ! It is like history repeating it self. So it was in late March around this time when party decided to rally around Bill as the nominee. Thank you very much for this eye opener. All I could say you're good at what you do !
Posted by: merle7 | Mar 28, 2008 6:11:15 PM
This is all so ridiculous. Why even have everyone vote? Let's just go to the half way point and whoever is ahead gets the nomination. When ALL the voting is over someone will win. I am pretty sure that is how this thing works.
Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:10:51 PM
I am one for the race continuing...even though I'm an Obama supporter. I just don't want to hear the whining from the Clinton supporters if she pulled out. Truth be told, Bill Clinton was trying to spin this whole deal. He was trying to give voters the sense that the election in 1992 was some long, hard fought ordeal similar to what the race is this year. And that is simply not the truth. Even though he didn't have the "magical number" until June 2 (or 3rd) he was the presumptive nominee well before that because mathematically it was impossible for anyone to overtake his delegate lead. Come on...let's be real and call a spade a spade...He was spinning and Jake just dug up some facts to highlight that fact.
Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:09:59 PM
Hmm seems to be a pattern here. Has anyone heard anything from how things are going in Texas?
Posted by: ra | Mar 28, 2008 6:09:33 PM
I don't understand what the big deal is. I think it is mainly the media that is being fussy about it taking so long to wrap things up. The voters in the upcoming states are clearly energized and it would be such a let down to those states if there voices/votes did not count for much and the nominee was picked for them.
You have to remember, many voters did not get actively engaged in this process until around January. So in the words of Bill, the media needs to "chill out".
Anyway, Bill didn't lie so what's the point?
Posted by: rachel | Mar 28, 2008 6:03:29 PM
Great reporting...
Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:01:13 PM
I think he (Bill Clinton) misspoke. It just proves that he's human, you know. You're allowed to misspeak several times on the same subject, don't you?
Posted by: Toan | Mar 28, 2008 5:56:33 PM
Fascinating stuff, Jake. Great time-line.
And one of the conclusions, again, must be: the Clintons are spinners, but they lost so much credibility in this campaign that nobody buys their arguments any longer.
Would they know how sorry the look? Does Wolfson know?
BTW - is Penn gone? Haven't heard anything from him in the last few days.
Posted by: Harko | Mar 28, 2008 5:54:31 PM
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