Home > Politics > Political Punch
Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper

« Previous | Main | Next »

Q: Did the 1992 Race Really Go Until June Like Bill Clinton Says? (A: Not Really)

March 28, 2008 5:38 PM

In his efforts to solicit patience from voters and Democratic officials alike, former president Bill Clinton constantly tells voters that the 1992 nomination race kept going until June.

"All these people that tell you, 'Aw we oughta shut this thing down now the Democrats are so divided – that’s a bunch of bull," he said today in  Kannapolis, North Carolina. "I didn't get enough votes to be nominated until June the 2nd, 1992."

That is literally true. Bill Clinton did not secure enough delegates through the primary and caucus process until the California primary, June 2, 1992.

But it is not politically true.

Bill Clinton had sewn up the nomination long before then. Months before then.

Moreover, the first real contest that year was on February 18, 1992. (No one competed in the Iowa caucuses since Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, was a candidate that year) The first real contest this year, the Iowa caucus, was January 3, 2008. So you'd also expect that race to last later in the calendar -- it started more than a month and a half later.

But regardless of that, here are some key dates for that 1992 race that indicate how misleading this argument is.

February 18, 1992 -- Sen. Paul Tsongas, D-Mass., wins New Hampshire primary. A scandal-plagued Gov. Bill Clinton comes in second.

February 20, 1992  -- San Diego Union-Tribune headline: "Tsongas got most votes, but Clinton says he won".

February 25, 1992 -- Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., wins the South Dakota primary.

March 3, 1992 -- Clinton wins Georgia. Tsongas wins Maryland. Harkin wins Minnesota and Idaho. Former California governor Jerry Brown wins Colorado. Still all very much up for grabs.

March 5, 1992 -- With no money, Kerrey ends his campaign. "We were ready to go full throttle," Kerrey says, "but unfortunately we ran out of gas."

March 7, 1992 -- Clinton wins South Carolina.

Harkin announces he will drop out.

March 10, 1992 -- Clinton cleans up on Super Tuesday, winning Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas. Tsongas wins Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Kerrey: "I would say he's got a very clear path to the nomination. But it's not a path without mine fields. There are still things out there that he's got to worry about. He's got to win."

Jim Lehrer on PBS: "David, how close is Bill Clinton to being the Democratic nominee tonight?"

David Gergen: "He's on the verge."

March 17, 1992 -- Clinton wins Illinois.

At this point, it becomes clear Clinton will be the nominee. Tsongas drops out. Only Brown remains in the race.

March 20, 1992 -- The Dallas Morning News: "Former Sen. Paul Tsongas abruptly halted his presidential candidacy on Thursday, effectively ending the Democratic contest and turning the primary campaign into a mop-up operation for Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. 'It was clear that we did not have the resources necessary to fight the media war in (the April 7) New York (primary),' Mr. Tsongas told a packed crowd of supporters in Boston."

The Boston Herald: "A no-holds-barred presidential race between Democrat Bill Clinton and President George Bush - in a clash of generations and vastly different values - was all but sealed yesterday as Paul E. Tsongas ended his quest for the Democratic nomination."

March 24, 1992 -- Brown wins Connecticut. Clinton holds a seven-to-one lead in delegates.

March 26, 1992 -- Harkin endorses Clinton, expressing concern that the fight between Clinton and Brown will cause divisions in the party that would hurt the nominee in November.

"I say it's time for Democrats to link arms, dig in our heels, set our sights to work together to put Bill Clinton in the White House in 1992," Harkin says.

Harkin is the first of Clinton's former opponents to endorse him, and the party begins to officially rally around the presumptive nominee.

April 1, 1992 -- Former President Jimmy Carter endorses Clinton, calling him "an honest, decent, competent, idealistic, practical man" who doesn't deserve to have his character questioned. "Pretty obviously, Gov. Clinton is going to get the nomination," Carter says.

April 4, 1992 -- Before the New York primary, Gov. Mario Cuomo says Clinton would be a "superb president."

April 8, 1992 -- Bryant Gumbel: "Good morning. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, call him flawed, call him slick, but call him a winner this morning. He swept the primaries in New York, Kansas and Wisconsin. Big strides toward the Democratic nomination that seem his for the taking today, Wednesday, April the 8th, 1992."

As a slap in Brown's face, Tsongas -- no longer in the race -- comes in second in New York.

April 12, 1992 -- House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Missouri, endorses Clinton. "Bill Clinton will be the kind of president the United States needs to recapture our economic strength and leadership in the post-Cold War world," Gephardt says.

House Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash: "All the dominoes are falling in favor of Clinton. He is going to be the nominee."

At the California Democratic convention, Brown says Clinton is likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee, and says he will back Clinton if he is nominated.

Austin American-Statesman: "Brown strongly indicated that, having lost the New York primary Tuesday, he will campaign as a crusader for political change rather than as a serious contender for nomination. Ron Brown, national party chairman, said the comments were 'very positive' and hinted that the contest has entered a new phase. The two met privately earlier in the day."

April 14, 1992 -- Clinton wins the final round of Virginia's caucuses. "Uncommitted" comes in a strong second, Brown comes in a distant third.

April 19, 1992 - Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, D-Maine, endorses Clinton.

Earth Day, 1992 - Clinton challenges President George H.W. Bush to a face-to-face debate on the environment.

April 28, 1992 -- Clinton wins Pennsylvania primary, having earned 1,466 of the 2,145 delegates needed to win. Brown has 316 delegates.

And on and on...

This notion that the 1992 presidential race was not over until June is literally true. But it was truly over about five or six weeks after the New Hampshire primary.

- jpt

March 28, 2008 in Weblogs | Permalink | Share | User Comments (40)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Like Jesse Jackson says " It ain't over till it's over,then it ain't over"! Well said Jesse!

Posted by: russell | Mar 28, 2008 7:08:02 PM

The National Journal runs an interesting interview with GOP media strategist Mark McKinnon who says he still leave Sen. John McCain's campaign if Sen. Barack Obama wins the Democratic nomination.

"Well, this goes back to a memo that I wrote to the campaign when I came aboard more than a year and a half ago, and I simply let them know that I had spent time with Obama and read his book and I like the guy. I think he has strong character and a fascinating life story, and I disagree with him fundamentally on issues like Iraq and trade and a number of others. But I just flashed forward to the improbable scenario, at that time seemingly improbable, that John McCain and Barack Obama might face off against one other. And I just told them at the time that I thought that I would be uncomfortable being on the front lines -- being as aggressive as you need to be in a presidential campaign -- and not only that I would be uncomfortable, but that it would be bad for the campaign, and that if that circumstance were to come to be, that I would just take a step to the sidelines and continue to support John McCain 100 percent and be No. 1 fan and cheerleader. But just kind of take myself out of the front lines."

Posted by: RepTex | Mar 28, 2008 6:55:35 PM

So Geraldine Ferraro WAS right. If Obama was a white man he would have all his competitors dropping out and endorsing him and party leaders behind him already. And please note, Bill Clinton was younger and had less foreign policy experience than Barack Obama during the 1992 primary.

Posted by: ROB | Mar 28, 2008 6:50:43 PM

Couldn't a John Edwards endorsement speed up things a bit?

Edwards' former donors broke toward Obama by a 2-to-1 margin over Hillary in February, the first full month after Edwards dropped out of the Democratic presidential nomination fight.

Posted by: Herta | Mar 28, 2008 6:49:14 PM

"It doesn't matter if Hillary's chance is 5% or 50%, let the people vote. If you are so sure Obama is going to win then sit back relax and let it play out."
Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:23:25 PM
----------------------------------------
Firefighter, no one is going to stop the voting, so that is not the point. The point is that for Hilliary to actually "win" the nomination (fairly) at this point being so far behind, she would have to destroy the whole party and the delegate system. Therefore, a reasonable person, who would like to honor the clear wishes of the people who have voted by the rules and are abiding by the rules, could do the honorable thing, and withdraw to preserve party unity. Why would you want to be the "spoiler" and hope to maintain credibility after the voting has run its course, spending valuable time and money to do the work that the opposing party should be doing? Moreover, she is doing a disservice to her supporters by building false hopes. You can bet that if the shoe were on the other foot, and she were in the lead by such a margin that Sen. Obama carries, she would already have declared victory. And her supporters would resent the petty politics of an opponent who would be willing to play the crass games that she is playing, with the party and with the electorate.

Posted by: Justinteim | Mar 28, 2008 6:40:40 PM

everytime someone tells Hillary to drop out, they are the ones that are causing conflict within the party. SHE DOES NOT WANT TO DROP OUT. DO OBAMA SUPPORTERS UNDERSTAND THE WORD 'NO'. you all sound like 3 years, why, why ,why. go to your rooms and come back out in june when everyone has had a chance to vote.

Posted by: D | Mar 28, 2008 6:38:56 PM

I'm for democrat in Florida, if my vote doesn't count in the primary it will count in the general... but for John McCain.

Posted by: Florida Voter | Mar 28, 2008 6:35:38 PM

More revisionist Clinton history. Seriously... would you even buy a used car from these people?

Posted by: Patrick | Mar 28, 2008 6:34:42 PM

Both canidates had the right to keep going.

I think it is un-American to expect people to drop out of a race to run for President.

Because a few government officials think so.

This time is for the people to vote for who they want.

Does Anyone in the DNC care about the people????

Posted by: seah | Mar 28, 2008 6:28:41 PM

Firefighter...

We're not talking about a halfway point here. Explain to me how Hillary does it at this point to overtake the delegate lead? All the Hill supporters seem to be glancing over that fact.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~What.Say.Me...

It doesn't matter if Hillary's chance is 5% or 50%, let the people vote. If you are so sure Obama is going to win then sit back relax and let it play out.

Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:23:25 PM

its not over till everyone has voted. is obama willing work for his votes? HILLARY , MAKE'EM SQUIRM.

Posted by: D | Mar 28, 2008 6:22:30 PM

Firefighter...

We're not talking about a halfway point here. Explain to me how Hillary does it at this point to overtake the delegate lead? All the Hill supporters seem to be glancing over that fact.

Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:13:45 PM

I love you Jake ! It is like history repeating it self. So it was in late March around this time when party decided to rally around Bill as the nominee. Thank you very much for this eye opener. All I could say you're good at what you do !

Posted by: merle7 | Mar 28, 2008 6:11:15 PM

This is all so ridiculous. Why even have everyone vote? Let's just go to the half way point and whoever is ahead gets the nomination. When ALL the voting is over someone will win. I am pretty sure that is how this thing works.

Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 28, 2008 6:10:51 PM

I am one for the race continuing...even though I'm an Obama supporter. I just don't want to hear the whining from the Clinton supporters if she pulled out. Truth be told, Bill Clinton was trying to spin this whole deal. He was trying to give voters the sense that the election in 1992 was some long, hard fought ordeal similar to what the race is this year. And that is simply not the truth. Even though he didn't have the "magical number" until June 2 (or 3rd) he was the presumptive nominee well before that because mathematically it was impossible for anyone to overtake his delegate lead. Come on...let's be real and call a spade a spade...He was spinning and Jake just dug up some facts to highlight that fact.

Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:09:59 PM

Hmm seems to be a pattern here. Has anyone heard anything from how things are going in Texas?

Posted by: ra | Mar 28, 2008 6:09:33 PM

I don't understand what the big deal is. I think it is mainly the media that is being fussy about it taking so long to wrap things up. The voters in the upcoming states are clearly energized and it would be such a let down to those states if there voices/votes did not count for much and the nominee was picked for them.

You have to remember, many voters did not get actively engaged in this process until around January. So in the words of Bill, the media needs to "chill out".

Anyway, Bill didn't lie so what's the point?

Posted by: rachel | Mar 28, 2008 6:03:29 PM

Great reporting...

Posted by: What.Say.Me... | Mar 28, 2008 6:01:13 PM

I think he (Bill Clinton) misspoke. It just proves that he's human, you know. You're allowed to misspeak several times on the same subject, don't you?

Posted by: Toan | Mar 28, 2008 5:56:33 PM

Fascinating stuff, Jake. Great time-line.

And one of the conclusions, again, must be: the Clintons are spinners, but they lost so much credibility in this campaign that nobody buys their arguments any longer.

Would they know how sorry the look? Does Wolfson know?

BTW - is Penn gone? Haven't heard anything from him in the last few days.

Posted by: Harko | Mar 28, 2008 5:54:31 PM

« Previous Comments

Post a comment





 

POLITICAL VIDEOS