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The Choice
March 15, 2008 9:54 AM
The data is starting to suggest that Sen. Barack Obama would beat Sen. John McCain among independent voters -- while McCain would beat Sen. Hillary Clinton with indies.
But it also suggests that Clinton has an advantage when it comes to holding on to Democratic voters.
Ron Brownstein at National Journal takes a closer look using data from Pew and Quinnipiac.
As Brownstein writes: "Findings like these help explain why many Democrats think Obama offers greater potential rewards as a nominee, but also presents greater risks. If Obama runs well, he seems more likely than Clinton to assemble a big majority and trigger a Democratic sweep -- not only by attracting independents and crossover Republicans but also by increasing turnout among African-Americans and young people.
"But if Obama stumbles, he could face a greater danger of fracturing the traditional Democratic coalition by losing seniors and blue-collar whites to McCain, principally on security issues. Clinton's reach across the electorate may not be as long, but her grip on her voters could be firmer."
What say you?
- jpt
March 15, 2008 in Obama, Barack | Permalink | Share | User Comments (129)
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Obama... Obama... Obama... is he the ONLY candidate left in this presidential race??? He sure is getting a LOT of FREE media exposure. How come we haven't heard Hillary clamoring for EQUAL time??? Com'on Hillary, turn UP the heat on this LIGHTWEIGHT and demand your equal time! I want to see more democratic carnage. And as the democrats annihilate each other, John McKennedy is quietly preparing his TRANSITION team. I LOVE IT!
Posted by: Doug | Mar 17, 2008 7:24:54 AM
Hard to ignore the elephant in the room. The UCC/Rev. Wright fiasco is resonating with the voting pubic in ways that the mainstream media is reluctant to acknowledge. Watch for the figures in places like PA, MI and FL (assuming a revote) and fairly moderate Southern state like NC. My feeling is Obama is already toast. In the GE, he'd have no chance against McCain in PA, OH, NC, MO or any other so-called battleground states. Given the sensitivity of NY and NJ voters regarding memories of 9/11, Obama is no shoo-in in those Democratic strongholds either. CA will be competitive for the first time in a long time with McCain appealing to Reagan Dems.
Posted by: Bartlebybickle | Mar 17, 2008 5:49:36 AM
appalachian blue i just got to say, I appreciate your way with words. I really do. And, your analysis too.
Posted by: Hopeful | Mar 17, 2008 3:17:41 AM
I agree Asncajun,
Hillary Clinton has the skill we are going to need for us to get through this upcoming depression. Remember all the people who either resigned or were ousted when Bush took office? Clinton has access to these people and can garner them to start immediately repairing government. They are skilled public servants who didn't drink the kool-aid.
We do not need someone vulnerable to unsound plans presented to him and we don't have the luxury of a learning curve.
He will never be able to win a general election, now, in any event. And, the country can't take another Republican president. Especially in this economy.
Posted by: Hopeful | Mar 17, 2008 2:58:36 AM
A good survey question for the pollsters to ask will be: Who will you vote for if Hillary Clinton (Barack Obama) loses the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama (Hillary Clinton) or John McCain? This is a good question for folks in this Comments page, too. What do you think people?! Respond!
Posted by: Ottile | Mar 17, 2008 2:50:03 AM
I have every confidence in Senator Obama and I know that we can win in November. Senator Clinton can push this all the way to the convention if she must, but I believe Senator Obama will be our nominee and he will beat McCain in November and I will do my part to help.
OBAMA/EDWARDS '08
Posted by: LB | Mar 17, 2008 2:45:10 AM
Obama supports wont vote for Mc Cain. They have NOTHING in common with Mc Cain. Only the FAR LEFT supports Obama now.
Clinton supporters see Mc Cain as an actual candidate worth voting for.
The new truth about Obama and his church for the last 20 years has turned the clinton voters right into Mc Cains arms if they INSIST on promoting Obama anyways.
He is toast.
Posted by: tomdavie | Mar 17, 2008 2:01:44 AM
Obama cant win the general election now. He is damaged goods. His MENTOR for the last 20 years is a racist anti american.
Give it a rest. The clinton voters will NOT vote for obama. Not anymore.
Posted by: tomdavie | Mar 17, 2008 1:50:35 AM
I am a black, 42yo Southern gal (Louisiana), and registered independant who has never been an Obama fan. While I am proud of the fact that a black man can be considered as a viable candidate, I look at the ENTIRE package when deciding who to cast my vote for. Obama reminds me too much of George Bush when he was running for office - lots of rhetoric, lots of calls for change, charisma, and yet nothing to back it up. He's GWB in liberal clothing. I would be afraid to leave our national security in the hands of another president needing on the job training and with so little experience. I am convinced the reason that Nancy Pelosi and the Dem establishment want him is because he can be molded to their will.
I am also very distressed about the video of his pastor. My dad is the same age as his pastor and is not this angry! I also take issue with the fact that he calls any black person who doesn't agree with him 'Uncle Toms'. Yes, racism exists - to deny this fact is to effectively have your head in the sand. As someone who is raising a biracial child I find his comments AS offensive as any I have heard from white supremacists - just on the other side of the fence.
If not, Hillary then this independant voter will be voting for John McCain.
Posted by: AsnCajun | Mar 17, 2008 1:01:49 AM
Although, obama has better numbers now. He is feeling the first taste of the republican smear machine since they have their candidate. If he thinks the "Clinton Machine" is bad as the Republican smear machine he is naive. Need I need to remind you that John Kerry had better numbers tahn Bush at this particular time in the campaign.
Once they show that he dodges controversial votes, label him as a free spending liberal, connect him to controversial anti-america rhetoric of his wife and minister and scare people about his inexperience, in december the pundits will be talking about obama being rezkoed(swiftboated).
Posted by: The Lord of war | Mar 17, 2008 12:00:28 AM
Neither of these Inexperienced
Lightweights will beat McCain!
He will wipe the floor with either
Obama or Clinton in the debates and
Clean their Clocks in the General
Election! Get Real!
Posted by: reaganfan | Mar 16, 2008 11:05:55 PM
I do not think that Obama can pull this one off. When you run on JUDGEMENT and WORDS MATTER this is a big problem. And any of the Clinton scandals just do not matter to us anymore even FOX NEWS have said this.
And those of us who have voted for Hillary already do not care about taxes either. And his Iraqi speech is pretty much worthless now.
If by chance he does pull this off and gets the nomination I will not vote for him.
Posted by: Melissa | Mar 16, 2008 10:58:51 PM
FACT: No candidate can win the presidency without independant voters.
FACT: Independant voters are more highly educated and tend to carefully scrutinize candidates.
FACT: Independant voters are usually moderates.
FACT: Male independants outnumber female independants more than two-to-one.
FACT: Independant voters, especially males, do not like Hillary Clinton, because we view her as devisive and polarizing.
FACT: If Hillary Clinton takes the Democratic nomination, John McCain will be the next President of the United States.
It's up to you Democrats. Back a winner or waste your time.
Posted by: Independant | Mar 16, 2008 6:09:06 PM
The majority of the people here talking against Obama were not going to vote for him anyways. You can sit here and try and tear him down on 2 incidences. Truth is Hillary and Bill Clinton have more scandals than we know about. That's why the Republicans are eager to run against her. Don't be a fool and subject yourselves to more years of the Bush Administration by voting for McCain. Obama is winning huge. Hillary can not catch up without bending rules. Please do not be fooled.
Posted by: Dee | Mar 16, 2008 4:34:08 PM
Out of curiosity I was looking at RCP one on one polls betwee MacCain and potential Democratic nominees Hillary and Obama for New Jersey. In the latest Rasmussen poll for NJ McCain beats Obama by 2% but looses to Hillary by 11%. In the primary Hillary beat Obama by 62% to 36% among White voters. Is Race going to be a factor in November in NJ?
Posted by: satish | Mar 16, 2008 2:15:18 PM
Being a democrat for more then 36 years, if Obama is on the ticket I will go with McCain a choice I don't like but there is no other choice.
For those people who believe Obama never knew of Rev. Wright's hate filled sermons I refer you to a news publication dated in August 2007.
It was a well know fact that Wright was a hateful pastor. So why has it taken Obama so long to come out and denounce Wright - because Obama could no longer hide it from the mainstream media.
Posted by: Say_No_To_Obama | Mar 16, 2008 2:11:27 PM
Well probably "independent" is a better description. Either way, you can't vote for McCain and still consider yourself a democrat.
Posted by: wardcleaverr | Mar 16, 2008 2:09:21 PM
Anyone who would vote for McCain cannot call themselves a democrat. If you would vote for McCain you are a moderate.
I do not wish to see this war continue. McCain has guaranteed that it will be business as usual at Wars R Us.
Posted by: wardcleaverr | Mar 16, 2008 2:06:39 PM
As an "older" female supporting Hillary Clinton, I could easily cross over and vote for McCain. I am a Conservative Democrat so national security is a primary issue for me. I believe Clinton to be strong on that issue whereas Obama is not (go to you tube and type in 52 Obama).
Then there's the question of the abortion issue. I have been listening to Obama supporters call me a moron menopausal woman for months now. They are right about one thing - menopausal. Us "old ladies" don't don't have a vested interest in that issue like a young woman does.
I am pro-choice but would sacrifice that issue for national security. GO HILLARY!
Posted by: JD | Mar 16, 2008 12:11:12 PM
Do you honestly believe Obama is going to beat McCain? When the republicans pull out those videos from his pastor where he say in the pew and this guy served as his life advisor - THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE HIM FOR LUNCH.
I will not vote for him either. I am an independent and have decided to support Hillary. I gave to her campaign for the first time yesterday.
We can not let this man get in - do white people not see what is happening?
Watch the "sermons" preached by this man - watch the State of the Black Union from 3 weeks ago.
Then hopefully you will see the light - otherwise we WILL lose the white house to the republicans.
Its Hillary or Republicans - one or the other - BO has not chance and if he truly wants to unite the party - he needs to get out NOW
Posted by: Drew | Mar 16, 2008 11:41:46 AM
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