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The Choice
March 15, 2008 9:54 AM
The data is starting to suggest that Sen. Barack Obama would beat Sen. John McCain among independent voters -- while McCain would beat Sen. Hillary Clinton with indies.
But it also suggests that Clinton has an advantage when it comes to holding on to Democratic voters.
Ron Brownstein at National Journal takes a closer look using data from Pew and Quinnipiac.
As Brownstein writes: "Findings like these help explain why many Democrats think Obama offers greater potential rewards as a nominee, but also presents greater risks. If Obama runs well, he seems more likely than Clinton to assemble a big majority and trigger a Democratic sweep -- not only by attracting independents and crossover Republicans but also by increasing turnout among African-Americans and young people.
"But if Obama stumbles, he could face a greater danger of fracturing the traditional Democratic coalition by losing seniors and blue-collar whites to McCain, principally on security issues. Clinton's reach across the electorate may not be as long, but her grip on her voters could be firmer."
What say you?
- jpt
March 15, 2008 in Obama, Barack | Permalink | Share | User Comments (129)
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I'm not understanding why people are saying that Obama could only win among blacks. This is a distortion by the media. Someone should research the scandals of the Clintons. They make Obama look like a choir boy. He is still the best to beat McCain. That is why they are creating these problems.
Posted by: Dee | Mar 16, 2008 11:32:29 AM
I like Obama, I just do. I support him 100% and then some.
What worries me is I am scared for Obama when he becomes President of the United States. Scared for his life. There are too many racist idiots out there that hate him. I had heard that some morons think he is the antichrist, can you imagine the stupidity. Nonetheless, if there are those dumb enough to believe such crap it poses a threat to the greatest man to have ever been elected to office. Maybe they need a law banning all guns before the election. One can never be too safe....
Posted by: jill k g | Mar 16, 2008 11:12:34 AM
HRC cannot get the nomination without somehow stealing it. PLEASE do the math. Obama, by superior campaigning, picked up as many delegates at the Iowa convention yesterday as HRC did in winning OHIO! She doesn't have a clue or a chance. All she can do is try to drive his chances in November into a ditch and hope for 2012.Does she think Obama supporters will ever forgive her for this???
Posted by: bskahn | Mar 16, 2008 9:53:18 AM
Most Recent Rasmussen Poll has McCain beating Obama and Clinton by 5% and 4% respectively. Additionally, Julia Baird of Newsweek is reporting that there is a widening divide among supporters:
“According to exit polling in the Texas primary, 91 percent of Clinton supporters said they would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee; 87 percent of Obama fans said they would be dissatisfied with Clinton. Nationally, a quarter of those who back Clinton say they'd vote for John McCain if Obama won the nomination (while just 10 percent of Obama supporters would do the same if he lost).”
Posted by: smartprimate | Mar 16, 2008 9:52:39 AM
Hillary should definitely be the nominee. Obama association with Farrakan and his pastor who disparages and slams our country and Obama and his wife's unpatriotic actions, no saluting our flag, no flag lapel pin, not being proud of our country till now, ties to Rezko, who is a crook, I don't call that change. The Republicans can't wait to run against Obama in the primary. Wake up Democrats!
Posted by: Doreen | Mar 16, 2008 9:11:51 AM
Now Obama needs to recognize that he is a Politician like the others. That he lies and that he compromises with crooks to get support or to buy his house. He needs to recognize that when is not convenient for him he forgets his firends or denies his spiritual leader. Obama does not stand to defend anything. Where are his convictions? Is his hope for change the same as Rev. Wright who is actually the author of Obama's theme. Hope for Change is not an Obama's original either he got it from Wright. Do both refer to the same kind of change?
Posted by: Raul | Mar 16, 2008 5:57:57 AM
I am an independent. I am voting for Hillary. If Hillary doesn't win, I will vote for McCain.
I cannot vote for someone when their spiritual foundation is based on hate and victimhood.
Posted by: Julie | Mar 16, 2008 2:43:50 AM
Mr Denhof...
ever been to a republican party "mixer"
its much much worse than this when it comes to back room "fixers"
party politics runs the game ...
and its not for mere conjecture or without a basis in historical realities
i.e. mcgovern sound familiar dude?
so..perhaps...its not just because the clintons have weight among the supers
but now she is truly the powerful populist candidate among the working class and mainly white rural and ex urban voter of this nation in the midwest and she is combining this with the true signficant statistical victories in california and new jersey
and then w/ the mainly rural voters of tennessee and arkansas and oklahoma and missouri
so...while the super delegates will probably make the final call here
its not ALL about "insider politices"
if she lost OHio or simply even broke even among the demographic groupings here in Ohio alone
she would have been forced OUT OF THE RACE BY THESE VERY SAME INDIVIDUAL WHOM YOU ARE IMPLYING ARE "FIXING THE RACE OUTCOME FOR HER
its a non argument...if you were on the ground in ohio...
and truly...every one inside the major democratic party who are not simply on some kool aide trip with some idealistic but failing candidacy
and/or some republican /independent spoiler schema in play
understand exactly what happened here in Ohio
the heart of all...literally
and texas rural vote coupled with the latino vote was super serious icing on that cake
Posted by: appalachian blue | | Mar 16, 2008 2:12:22 AM
Hillary is arguing that the superdelegates should decide on who should be the nominee, regardless of which candidate accumulates the most delegates.
Do people realize that her "overall advantage among superdelegates has come from current and former party officials, reflecting the ties she and her husband have built over the years." (New York Times).
So she apparently thinks it is fair for her friends and associates to choose the nominee. A person who would argue this way is very hard to imagine as president. It is troubling.
Posted by: Mike Denhof | Mar 16, 2008 2:01:55 AM
as to colo idea about voter increase from primary to now and then projections
Ohio is simply off the map
i did some of this very kind of work for clinton hq and it stunned even us
it represents a true demographic shift
towards her
not just against obama
but for her period...and it was seriously signficant in Ohio...pa projects even better across the board
....this is why kennedy went back to talking about border patrols, sherrod borwn is talking about 'ending the war'
and john kerry and heintz seem to have taken a sudden european 'policy' vacation abroad
and jay rockafeller is probably trying to figure out how to unendorse his choice for president....with a 3 to 1 lead for hillary in his own state
and increasing....
Posted by: appalachian blue | | Mar 16, 2008 1:52:23 AM
All three candidates are politicians. They all got something they want to hide. BUt with Hillary in the spotlight for so many years, you know all her dirt. You know her bad and her good. Same with McCain. BUt with Obama, no one knows him and unfortunately, his negatives have been brushed aside in this year long love fest. By the time more and more dirt comes out, it will be too late.
Better to choose the better known evil than an unknown evil.
At least you know what she is capable of doing for this country judging by what she's done for this country already.
With Obama, you'd just be taking that leap of faith and "hoping" he'll do something great to our country.
Posted by: Bill Jergens | Mar 16, 2008 1:48:03 AM
again dont' leave out for Hillary
pa...which is conservative as well as its blue collar and white outside of phila...
....
and hillary takes on WVA and does pretty well in missouri...as well
i think the latinos will NOT go for mccain per se...in western and texas votebecause she is known to the major latino political leaders and now is even more well known to the younger latinos
Posted by: appalachian blue | | Mar 16, 2008 1:47:37 AM
If you assume that core Democratic states stay blue....I think Hillary gives us a better shot at Arkansas, Ohio, Florida, Michigan, New Mexico, and Texas.
I think if Obama is the nominee we may pick up some Southern traction maybe South Carolina and Louisiana.
There is nothing silly about the Clinton strategy. It seems very viable to me.
Someone should really analyse the numbers of previous votes. For instance take the total number of Democratic voters in the primary states and see what the increase is. Then project voter turnout for an election. As long as voters don't switch to McCain in droves we will take back the Whitehouse.
Posted by: Colo | Mar 16, 2008 1:41:13 AM
now irma knows what side of the aisle she lives on
and its clear...the clintons are NOT against the AA or the youth for that matter and its simply silly to suggest they would be
they have critical black leaders in their campaign right now...and they were very good to the AA in the 90's
so lets get real here...
its not about hating obama or trying to make him look poor or say mean things
campaigns are campaigns and its a ruthless process to get to the nomination
and no one campaign has the edge on what has been inferred...
and bill is broken hearted if you would truly understand what he is about
when it came to losing the urban vote in south carolina ...not because of he's so political
but because he invested ALOT in the AA over his time in public life
and its not some false notion he cares for the inner city culture
and cares about civil rights...they do very very much
its just a reality check right now baby girl
and its BIG TIME major baseball here
and we need to come together
right now
"over me"
as john lennon would sing
"he's got MOJO football"
he's got Hair down below his knees..."
....come together, right now
and we can win this thing
and hilary will not hurt any major constituency of this party
and everyone in the know..knows it
Posted by: appalachian blue | | Mar 16, 2008 1:40:39 AM
Vanessa, Obama moblized the young and AA's to vote for him. If Hillary becomes the nominee, then perhaps we will lose the young vote. However, we will not lose a big chunk of the AA vote, they will vote for the nominee because they know. They know Hillary and Bill and even if there were some tense times in this campaign, they know the Clintons are on their side. The rest is the meat and potatoes of the Democratic party, the blue collar workers. It's their party, it's the party we belong to and they are for Hillary because Barack is a risk and we must win due to the economic threats. It's not that a lot of people hate him, they want him out because the rist is too great.
Posted by: irma | Mar 16, 2008 1:20:07 AM
and as for nancy pelosi
she needs to put her womanly jealousy away
realize she allowed this nation to suffer thru two more years of hell under a neo emperor in residence at the 1600 pa avenue
and simply not shove her hubby's 50 million dollar S F real estate mogul money's opinions down our working white folks in the midwest's mouth when she claims to 'lead this party'
...what a shame...for the nation's first woman speaker
she jumped into bed w/ bush before we could even get out of bed the day after we partied over the victory of this republican nightmare...
Posted by: appalachian blue | | Mar 16, 2008 1:09:25 AM
you know what? it's no longer important who has more delegates etc. what's important is, will hillary or barack have the better chance of picking up those swing voters in those swing states? this is not a racist comment but based upon our ridiculous winner-take-all electoral crap, none of the dems black or white in the southern states matter at all. they might as well not even vote - those states will go republican as they always do. obama cannot change that fact. this race will come down to ohio, florida, pennsylvania, maybe one or two other. now, have you seen the 'god d*mn america' clip? picture it in your mind going over and over and over throughout the months of july (esp the fourth of july? oh great!), august, september, october and into election day in november. the average voter in america is a middle-aged white person. do you think that the average voter will vote for barack obama this year? no. do you think that the average voter in the swing state will vote for hillary clinton this year? at worst, maybe. at best, why the hell not, give her a shot, john mccain is more of the same. now, who has the better chance in november 2008 of grabbing the white house back from the republicans, obama or clinton? be honest with yourself and i think you'll know the answer. plus - he's young! he'll be able to distance himself from this and be an even stronger and more wise and experienced candidate 4 or 8 years from now. what think?
Posted by: ChrisSanDiego | Mar 16, 2008 12:58:27 AM
in a word
clinton beats mccain in a fairly close but clear victory
iraq has sickened everyone
'dem can't beat mccain on foreign trade'?
what have you been smoken dude?
what foreign trade...come to the midwest and say that
and then ask the voters here
if they will care if some gay guy gets to marry his dream lover like the voters seemed to care so much about in 04 w/ karl rover at the controls
i don't think so
and by the way..what's the debt to export ration under these 8 year of republican rule
...ask Bear Sterns....
if you think McCain has the inside track on that
and this is written from southern ohio dude...
but i digress
hilary ought to be able to win Ohio w/ Strickland
and Pa w/ phila's mayor and Rendell
and the pittsburgh mayor's recent endorsement as well
in the fall
so....i think she's very very competitive in the fall
and you're so right...
the "god damn america" statement
has ended the true independent/republican voter swing
once and for all
but as i have indicated
it already ended..even before this
Wright Stuff
because of the true MR. Right Stuff
Astranaut and former Ohio Senator Glenn's backing of his old
friend and supporter
Hillary the one remaining hope for the dems this fall
and she will kick McCain's ass on the economy alone...
[or bill will do it for her]
Posted by: appalachian blue | Mar 16, 2008 12:52:25 AM
I'm not a democrat, republican or independent, but as a voter, I will not vote for Obama no matter what now. Frankly he should step down as he and his past have made it only worse.I've learned enough to make my choice for Hillary even though she's not my favorite person. I know what I'm getting with her and don't care about the personal stuff because with the economy in this shape, I know she and Bill will restore America to surpluses, and that's all that counts.
All these comments by people like Vanessa who must not have anything thing better to do. Why talk about trivial stuff, who cares? Everyone, unless you're new to the game like the teenaged Obama cult worshipers, knows that it's the 4 swing states taht matter-PA,OH,FL,MI-Who ever wins 3 of 4 will win the presidency and that's the end of it. They chose Hillary for a reason, and I agree with them, and I'll bet the superdels will to.
Posted by: Obamadefecter | Mar 16, 2008 12:34:35 AM
chrissandiego, you are so right about how obama winning the nomination then going down in flames in the general election would have the benefit of him being totally done for, as opposed to having the chance to try to sell his crap again in 4 or 8 years. i still hope he doesn't get the nomination, and believe he won't. but if he does, then president mccain can serve four years, obama will be history and have to try very hard to hang onto his senate seat, and we will move on. one thing for sure is that obama won't win the general. vanessa and all the deluded ones who just keep posting the same stuff over and over actually seem to believe that blue collar people will vote for obama, despite the wright thing, that hillary supporters will vote for obama, despite the dirty tricks, playing of the race card and getting hillary blamed for it, and media-in-the-pocket reasons for obama's getting this far, and all the rest of his nonsense. they are so wrong on all counts. polls already show this, and they were taken before the wright thing became public.
Posted by: so saddened | Mar 16, 2008 12:34:34 AM
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