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The Prism of that Illinois House Race
March 09, 2008 2:58 PM
In the special election to replace retiring House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Illinois, Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican Jim Oberweis, 53%-47%.
"In a stunning upset Saturday that could be a sign of trouble for Republicans this fall, a little-known Democratic physicist won the special election for a far west suburban congressional seat long held by former GOP House Speaker Dennis Hastert," writes the Chicago Tribune.
"In a major blow to the Republican Party, Democratic former physicist Bill Foster on Saturday took the solidly Republican far west suburban seat held for the last 21 years by former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert," proclaims the Chicago Sun-Times.
Not surprisingly, Obama supporters are selling the result as a sort of proxy Obama-McCain face-off, since Obama did a TV ad for Foster, while McCain stumped for Oberweis.
There's another way to look at the race, though. Clearly Foster was comfortable having Obama campaign for him even though the district is something like 2-to-1 Republican.
Does anyone know if any of the Democrats running for Congress in 2006 in Republican-leaning seats had Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, campaign for them so publicly?
I ask because Clinton heralds the fact that she won over Republican voters in her state. But there were some hotly contests Democratic House races in New York two years ago, and Clinton was on the top of the ticket. And I'm pretty certain she didn't appear in any TV ads for an of those Democrats -- ultimately victorious now-Reps. Michael Arcuri and Kirsten Gillibrand not to mention long shot Rep. John Hall (formerly of the band Orleans).
Thoughts?
-jpt
March 9, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (47)
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I'm a Democrat in Foster's district. I worked hard for Foster, lived through the nail-biting Saturday night returns, and cheered myself hoarse at his victory party. It still hasn't completely sunk in for me. My bedrock Republican district, which has had a virtual party hegemony at a local level and a Republican Rep. in Congress every day of my entire life, against all odds and expectations, and despite vicious negative attack ads and huge financial advantages for the other side, voted in a Democrat. The world has rocked on its axis, and we who witness it are practically stunned speechless. I can't overstate the shock factor of all this- Foster won in places that we thought were nearly impossible to win.
Any of you who don't get that this is largely thanks to Obama campaigning for Foster just don't understand what things are like in my district, or how those Obama ads were received. This is so big, on so many levels- it's such a CHANGE! If Foster wants to retain his seat in November, it would help HUGELY to have Obama at the top of our ticket, to push up Democratic turnout once again. This is our chance to turn a little more of that Red into Blue.
Obama likes to say that when we are asked if we can make a difference, we need to say, Yes We Can. Foster said in his speech on Saturday (and now I can say from my own personal experience): Yes We Did, and Yes We Will.
Posted by: DuPage Democrat | Mar 10, 2008 6:14:21 PM
Obama campaigned for Lieberman and Clinton campaigned for LeMont. Doesn't make sense, since lieberman has been pro-war and Le Mont was anti-war.
You have to ask where does he really come down to on this issue a speech or his statements and votes since being in the US Senate.
Posted by: Melissa | Mar 10, 2008 10:01:54 AM
I can't believe this man, he could campiagn for Foster but, he couldn't show up for the State of the Black Union in New Orleans. (Hillary was there) This man really does have a huge ego, just like George Bush.
Posted by: Melissa | Mar 10, 2008 9:58:18 AM
Dogsoldier,
I doubt very seriously if TCG supports Hillary's competitor. He's a smart guy, seems to support a Republican agenda, stated in a previous blog that he was a Huckabee backer and has significantly adapted his writing style to become more engaging in this blog. I guess its conceivable he shifted to support the other candidate, anticipating how the winds will blow in November for the R candidate. Day by day this thing shifts in Hillary's favor, so we have to continue to be vigilant against the emotional diatribes here.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 10, 2008 1:10:22 AM
Obama thinks that guy winning is all because of him.
Now if that is not Egotistical, self-righteous crap. The man has no shame and would stoop to anything.
Posted by: seah | Mar 10, 2008 1:02:01 AM
Obama was the featured speaker for Joe Lieberman at his largest re-election fundraiser against Lamont. He called Lieberman his mentor, and stressed how he was "sorely" needed back in Washington.
Should that be considered a plus or minus for Obama.
We certainly know how Lieberman feels about the Democratic party, and "how much help he has been to us", and our end the war effort! Also, not surprisingly Lieberman has endorsed McCain for president
Hillary Clinton also supported Lieberman , I think.
Posted by: Mike | Mar 10, 2008 12:53:15 AM
Change is difficult, but necessary!
Posted by: Jack | Mar 10, 2008 12:53:09 AM
Why is it that so many supporters of Senators Clinton and Obama feel the need to demonize each other? Neither of the candidates are perfect.
After 8 years of Bush this country needs radical fixing. Personally, I strongly support Barrack. And believe it or not, I'm not naive about the man and his character. Nor are the vast majority of his supporters. I'm also confidant that Hillary's people feel the same about her.
In truth they voted the same way on 64 of 66 senate issues. So there is really little difference in policy. Their styles are what seems to distinguish them.
So why can't the real issues of change from the Republican approach to settling the country's problems be what we are discussing? What does it matter if we gain the nomination and lose the war against the GOP.
Posted by: DaCoach | Mar 10, 2008 12:33:45 AM
Pat,
Yes. and Obama is also this generation's mood ring. The suckers who voted for him saw all good at first but now it changed color
Posted by: geevill | Mar 9, 2008 11:10:02 PM
TCG good points. I suggest what is important about your posts is your flexibility to discuss with respect. That's so critical because it shows it is quite possible for a Clinton supporter and a Obama supporter to respectfully discuss matters of contention in a civilized manner. That, in my opinion, is the path toward a unified democratic party.
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 10:41:30 PM
Dog
Not calling you out. IT's the people on the inside we elect to act on our behalf who should be held accountable.
It is their job to get things right. It is our job to take care of our families and pay our bills. We count on them to work as hard as we do and they get some big $ and live important lives.
Sometime they take the easy way out. And We all know people who take short cuts in our day to day lives. But there is such a thing a personal responsibility. And I'm calling people out.
These guys took a pass leading up to the war. They did. Kerry wanted to be pres and did not want to look like a wimp. He voted for the war even though he was against it. Hillary did something similar.
Does anyone remember Bill42 taking the position before the SC primaries that he was against the War. First time anyone heard this. So what did Hill and Bill think about the war vote at the time? No one will know. So we are left with the conclusion that she knew it was a bad idea but played along, or was duped by Bush, or was just in over her head.
That is it.
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 10:30:19 PM
TCG none of us knew at the time to what extent Bush was using the intelligence community to cherry pick knowledge that Senators like Clinton received. It was only years later any of us understood the scope of Chaney and Bush's complicity. I do not know about anyone else, but I do try to make decisions on what I know as opposed to what I do not know. However little I may know at that time. Nevertheless, I do look back and sometimes wonder how I could have been so stupid for doing this or that. That's just the way life comes at you I suppose.
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 10:13:52 PM
Westie and Dog
Can trust Colin Powell. And that's understandable. They don't have double top super secret security clearances.
They don't both have access to the inside info, say like BoB Graham who went berserk over the fact that Kerry, Clinton and various other Red State Dems rolled over.
Hillary says she ready on day one. With all the inside info, she wasn't ready that day. She was hoping that Colin would cover her back...but that's not a luxury a statesman has.
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 10:09:15 PM
Westie and Dog
Can trust Colin Powell. And that's understandable. They don't have double top super secret security clearances.
They don't both have access to the inside info, say like BoB Graham who went apolpleptic
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 9:55:41 PM
WCM, I really did trust Powell as the one in Bush's cabinet to guide me through that mess at the time because he was the outside guy I thought. Anyway, TCG, I suggest every democrat held their finger in the wind on this one. And I further suggest it was the American public feelings itself, at that time, who caused many to vote as they did. Should we hold all democrats this Iraq war vote as a new standard then we'd have approximately ten democrats left on congress at all.
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 9:55:18 PM
'Mandie, that wind was blowing at above 80 per cent, I would have too.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 9, 2008 9:50:18 PM
Dogsoldier, you can add WestCoastMessenger to that list. I'm not easily shnookered and trusted Colin Powell immensely. This was a moment of a fall from grace for all the United States of America has ever stood for. Unfortunately, Powell caved to other hawks and here we are billions of dollars later, mired in a muck.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 9, 2008 9:48:51 PM
Westie
She had her finger in Da Wind prior to the Irak War Vote.
Not exactly a profile in courage.
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 9:46:34 PM
TCG, good points. Regards to Hillary Iraq vote, I'm from the center, center small right of democratic party and I too at the time this vote was taken believed what Bush, the news media and especially Colin Powell reported because of all the Bush cabinet I trusted Powell. Now, many in Obama's camp itself voted for that same Iraq war vote including Kerry, Dashle and so on. I do not hold it against them because I believed as well. It would be foolish for me to say otherwise. So I have no problem with Clinton's vote.
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 9:44:27 PM
Poor Poor Barrack Obama
He should list all his campaign donators.
He should list the charities he gave stolen money to from his campaign fund.
Since he said Rezko and company only game him at the most 20k, then it went up to 60k, now he has given away 168k.
Wonder if he has any money lurking from other shady characters?.....
Wonder how he pays his high level staff.
They working for nothing HAHAHAHAHA yea sure for how long now?
Posted by: seah | Mar 9, 2008 9:42:43 PM
Hey "Commander Guy", your ideas about Hillary being guided by polls is a fallacy. If she went by polls she would have quit when she was down. As you can see this thing shape up where Hillary wins via Florida, Michigan, popular vote, and superdelegate vote, clearly indicates taht she has been acting strategically. Who did not cave to Howard Dean's pressure in removing her name off the ballot? Who has consistently advocated for the people of Florida and Michigan, even when it was an unpopular idea to do so? Hillary Clinton would be the correct answer. I do like your blog, though. I'll stop by and throw rocks at it one of these days.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 9, 2008 9:39:15 PM
Catfight, perhaps you forgot this Iraq war money is borrowed funds as reported by all major news media. You do not have to believe me, however, I urge you to check for yourself. Now with our falling dollar and housing crisis like none of us ever experienced before bank are starting to fold. We are all in a world of hurt right now and I want both Clinton and Obama to focus us all on this issues so we all know how we're going to get out of this mess. I find both Hillary, and I'm her supporter, and Obama have not given us more clarity on these issues. What do you think?
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 9:22:33 PM
Dogsoldier
IDK where BHO would go. But the same is true about HRC.
But she's predictable. You just need to understand polling data and where her short term political interests lay. That's her guiding light so she be easy to understand.
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 8:37:47 PM
Its called negative coattails. That's the HRC effect on the down ballot.
If you pick HRC, look for campaign commercials to morph the face of your ordinary average Dem into the face of HRC. Ya see, in the election fight the ordinary average Dem will get a fraction of Hillary's friends to watch his back. But he'll inherit all her enemies tying him to her and taking him down.
And that bright shiny new toy also known as the House of Representatives will be gone for good in 2010. Hope you enjoy it while it lasts Nancy.
Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 9, 2008 8:28:24 PM
Jake,
7 of your last 10 posts have been anti-Clinton. Are you trying to tell us something?
Posted by: Tom Traubert | Mar 9, 2008 8:24:26 PM
America is in for some fun. Should Obama win the White House the nation will swing from hard right wing policy to hard left wing policy. Somebody is in for a rude wake up the next day. One question, with the incredible debt load America currently owes where will Obama get the money to deliver on even one quarter of his promises? Obama supporters, your turn?
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Mar 9, 2008 8:22:09 PM
ODB... what are you implying? This country has been run by "highly experienced evil geniuses" so conversely we should give it over to an inexperienced good simpleton!
Posted by: smartprimate | Mar 9, 2008 6:41:52 PM
All I can say is GO BHO.!!
The critics will be caught holding air....we need the kind of change Barack can bring to our nation....which has been abused so much especially in the last 8 years....largely from the highly experienced evil geniuses that have been in power. Please help us sweep them out one by one ...
Posted by: odb | Mar 9, 2008 6:28:13 PM
This is a little different... all incumbents are vulnerable this year. In the General, all the Bush-haters will be happy that there is no Bush on the ticket, although the Souros 527’s will keep on doing that insipid McSame ad. I think we have nominated the best person for the job and he will be very competitive. However, since the beginning of this race, I was always of the opinion that even with a well mounted campaign by the GOP; the General Election is for the Democrats to Lose.
HOWEVER, it’s looking like the Dems are doing a fine job of doing just that! Keep it up… a well rested McCain will be meeting bloodied and wounded BHO and HRC after they come back from the sunny but indecisive Puerto Rico Primary!
Posted by: smartprimate | Mar 9, 2008 6:10:01 PM
If one takes the time to research, one finds that Senator Obama has accomplished quite a lot in his life, and that he has a values system for himself that is very demanding and that he lives up to. Check out how he grew up, where he went to school, and what he has done since he graduated. You will find a stellar mind and career.
He can lead us out of the fear the last writer so obviously is in and trying to pull the rest of us in to. It is time for a political shift. Please join us.
Posted by: Nancy Lee Potter | Mar 9, 2008 6:00:04 PM
Obama has became the new generation's pet rock. No one knows what he hads done; no one knows what he would do; no one cares whether they know; all only wantis to be a part of a "movement"
It is time for all of you to wake up!
The fututre of this country is at stake, think before you act, think twice before you vote.
Posted by: pat | Mar 9, 2008 5:52:53 PM
If Foster had run a TV ad with Clinton and had her endorse him, he would have lost BIG. Real BIG.
And anyone rational person not overwhelmed with emotion for Hillary can see that.
Posted by: ROB | Mar 9, 2008 5:48:40 PM
Party in Illinois! We're getting our congressional representation back from the lock-step GOP. Thank you, Denny Hastert--we couldn't have done it without you.
Posted by: Nick | Mar 9, 2008 5:44:50 PM
The problem with that race was Jim Oberweis, this guy has run for every office there is in IL and keeps lossing. The state Republican party needs to get it's act together.
These are the same people that gave us Obama, yes the state Republican party. When Obama was running for the Senate seat he didn't have a chance, until Jack Ryan had to drop out of the race.
If the IL state Republican party had done it's home work no one would even know who Obama is.
Now they have a few months to get someone qualified to run and get that seat back.
Posted by: Tim | Mar 9, 2008 4:51:51 PM
The problem with he Clinton Campaign is they want to continue to try and run a race from the past 3 elections: Hold the fort and pin all of your hopes of Florida and Ohio. I am not sure why that is the stategy becuase it has worked soooo well in he past.
Check out the map on the last non-incumbent Democrat to win the presidency (Clinton in 1992). When he won, he won states like Nevada and Colorado. He did not have to rely on the worst state Democratic party in America in Florida. While he carried Ohio, we would have one without it. That is what Obama can offer Democrats.
He redraws the map and brings the Mountain West into play. He brings southern states like North Carolina, Georgia and Virginia into play. He could conceivably flip the map and make Florida and Ohio irrelevant. The reality is that the big blue states will likely hold. Shouldn't the goal be to change the dynamic in hopes of winning?
Or do we want to wait on yet another questionalbe outcome in FLA and OH?
Posted by: Jason | Mar 9, 2008 4:51:49 PM
This is good news, and basically, reaffirms reality.
The media keeps saying that McCain stands a reasonable chance to win, in November.
But, to me, it's going to be the Democrat, most likely by a large margin.
McCain stands no chance.
But the media will do everything in their power, to help McCain make it a horse race.
Posted by: Jon | Mar 9, 2008 4:43:13 PM
What is this? "Guilt by association in reverse?" Have you inadvertently created a new fallacy? Where are you coming from? Illinois is Senator Obama's home state, why would Foster ask Clinton or anyone else to bolster his campaign? If the majority of republicans in Illinois didn't like Senator Obama, he wouldn't have won his seat in the senate now, would he? Another question, are you another sexist republican who can't stand to see a woman who is much smarter than most men?
Posted by: M. Watson | Mar 9, 2008 4:39:48 PM
Only 1 in 5 voters in the district showed up. That miserable turnout demonstrates the disgust that voters have for both parties in IL. As an example of the chaos, Democrats can't stand Blagojevich, either and won't support his bills. It's nuts. This Democrat can only do good in US Congress if he stays away from amnesty for illegals. No one more than he, a research physicist whose career has been wholly dependent on funds paid by the US taxpayer, knows the insane costs of the immigration Ponzi scheme on energy research that will be essential to the very survival of the modern world. Bush mothballed fusion research after 15 billion was spent since the early '90's, but billions in block grants go to states overwhelmed with the public costs of immigration. It's shameful. The illegals get free education for their children and healtcare for themselves while we all await $10 gas in 2012.
Posted by: Eric Nowak | Mar 9, 2008 4:38:05 PM
What may be more important for Obama tan the fact his candidate won the race, it may add another super delegate to his column. My guess is that Representative Foster will have that Super delegate title bestowed on him due to the win, giving Obama another needed vote.
Posted by: Jason | Mar 9, 2008 4:36:52 PM
One big difference about Clinton in NY two years ago, was that Eliot Spitzer was really the most popular politician w/ 69% of the vote. Spitzer was the top of the ticket in that race. He campaigned heavily for Gillibrand and Arcuri and I believe also did ads for them.
Posted by: cgibson | Mar 9, 2008 4:34:57 PM
This is definitely a double win for Obama. And as a side note, I caught you on Reliable Sources this am. Thanks for pointing out that the majority of the negative attacks were coming from the Clinton campaign. The rest of the media keeps trying to push the meme that it's even on both sides.
Posted by: Djshay | Mar 9, 2008 4:25:49 PM
This is another example of why it is so important for Obama to be the Democratic nominee in November. There will be plenty others riding in on his coattail!!!
Posted by: Janice | Mar 9, 2008 4:12:59 PM
Is this the last rag-tag remnant of the
Tom DeLay era in the House. This guy was DeLay's handpicked patsy to serve
as Majority Leader and this is the final chapter of the sorry situation
which existed in the House following
the Gingrich's ouster. It is certainly
an omen for the general elections.
Posted by: Joe Sheehan | Mar 9, 2008 3:50:23 PM
.in a comparison between Obama and Clinton of unfortunate associates would put the list for Obama at one or two people at the most. The list for Hillary and her perjuring husband would read like "War and Peace"....Hsu, Mark Rich, Rezko (yes, the Clintons know him too!), Karl Rove (yes, he and Bill are friends!), etc. Hillary has a lot of experience befriending unsavory types. Be careful about who you criticize especially when you live in a glass house.
Posted by: Janet from NH | Mar 9, 2008 3:33:18 PM
One other note, Hastert's legacy will be waddling down the middle of the Senate chambers, as a leader of the "House Managers" in the fiscally irresponsible joke attack on Clinton. He was promptly rejected by Senators from both parties, who better understood that there was an obligation to lead a nation. This guy was never a leader, he was an obstructionist against progress, all the while chomping from the pork barrel that the Republican's McCain so decries.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 9, 2008 3:29:19 PM
A better headline for this should be: "REPUBLICANS ARE TOAST"!! The nine trillion deficit-spending, fiscally irresponsible party led by embarrassed Republicans can use this as an Epitaph, along with a duly translated Latin version of the following phrase: "We Came, We Saw, We Blew It". The last vestiges of the abcess left by Gingrich will be cleared away.
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Mar 9, 2008 3:22:47 PM
Speaking as a Republican I reluctantly say GREAT. Hastert was a MORON, and did nothing of significance in office. He was an obstructionist. He was in the way, we can all be thankful that he is GONE!!!
Posted by: cba | Mar 9, 2008 3:16:23 PM
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