Political Punch

Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper

« Previous | Main | Next »

What Should We Expect to Hear from Camp Clinton Tuesday Night?

March 02, 2008 4:49 PM

I think the Clinton campaign is quite prepared to continue after Tuesday, even if she gets trounced in Texas delegates. In fact, I think many Hillary Clinton supporters expect that will happen.

The hypothetical some Clinton supporters posit -- Barack Obama wins Vermont, Rhode Island is close, Clinton wins Ohio, Obama wins delegates in Texas but the popular vote is either close or perhaps Clinton wins it.

(As you may know, the Texas system is thought to favor Obama for two main reasons: First, one third of the delegates will be chosen in an evening caucus, and the organization and enthusiasm of the Obama campaign means he has done well in caucuses. Second, two-thirds of the delegates will be chosen in a primary where Obama-leaning districts -- black, upwardly mobile white -- have more delegates. Why do they have more delegates? Because those districts turned out to vote for the Democrat in 2004 and 2006.)

In any case, if that's the scenario, and Clinton can claim at least two if not three victories (Texas popular vote being one of them), I don't get the feeling that Sen. Clinton will be at all inclined to drop out.

The questions her supporters may ask if that scenario plays out:

If -- after 11 straight wins and outspending Clinton 3-to-1 -- Obama can't put her away in two big states, what does that say about his strength as a candidate?

What does it say about what Democrats want?

Will it show that Obama has a glass jaw on national security? If he can't beat Clinton on that debate -- if her "Children" ad works -- her campaign may continue to make the case to voters (and to superdelegates) that McCain will eat his lunch on the issue

If neither of the two candidates can reach the magic number of delegates to clinch the nomination, why should Clinton be the one to drop out? "She could go on vacation for the next six weeks and he still wouldn't be able to wrap it up," is a common refrain.

Is there not a big double standard in the expectations game? If their situations were reversed, they say, no one would be calling for Obama to drop out. They'd be calling for her to put him on the ticket.

These open primaries have allowed independents and even Republicans into what's supposed to be a Democratic process. Some hypothesize that according to exit polls Clinton has actually won Democratic voters, and Obama is only ahead because of the non-Democratic riff-raff. Isn't that relevant?

* * *

Please note: Those are not my questions, it's what I imagine we may hear from Clintonistas Tuesday night, unless Obama has a stellar evening.

The bottom line is I do NOT get the impression at all that even if Obama walks away with even more of a delegate advantage Tuesday, Clinton will be inclined to drop out.

What say you?

- jpt

March 2, 2008 in 2008: Democrats | Permalink | Share | User Comments (106)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

Hillary should not get out of the race.
Obamagic wants this to finish because he doesn't have the real strength to go on a long run fight. It's a lot of illusions around his inspirational campaign and that won't last too long once times get rougher on him.
Hillary should stay in the race and not give way to the pressure.

Posted by: Jane | Mar 4, 2008 7:39:34 AM

anybody but Lady MacBeth!!!

Posted by: jennifer | Mar 3, 2008 10:41:50 PM


Come on Texas!!!!

Let's rid this country of the lies and politics of personal destruction that is known as Clintonism.

You CAN do it.

Posted by: Easy | Mar 3, 2008 7:43:05 PM

Sometime ago, I was writing a novel with the first woman president and in my fiction she was a Scorpio born in Oct 26th, I didn't know hillary's b-day...she's the one...there are many Republicans who're praying Obama will win, so the Republicans will be there again for 4 more years.
Vote Hillary!

Posted by: elise quick | Mar 3, 2008 7:08:55 PM

I just want to "second" these statements:

"Since in many states, Texas especially, Republicans and independents are now "Democratic Primary, Wild Cards" and CANNOT be counted on to vote in November for Obama. The Republican party's hatred of the Clintons is well documented, so people need to stop and think, are the Republican sabotaging the Democratic primary and voting for the weaker candidate on issues so he can be steam rolled in November? I THINK SO!"
======
"Hillary should go on NO MATTER what!!! No one will have enough delegates by August, so it is anyone's game. In the 6 months to the convention, anything could happen..."
=====
I don't believe that Hillary Clinton would ever accept being Barack Obama's vice presidential nominee. Hillary is running a campaign based on her assertion that she is "Ready on day 1". The implication (and it is correct) is that Barack Obama is not. I think her message will certainly be pointed out in a debate with John McCain. Whether people like to admit it or not, the Democratic party is no longer united. I think if Hillary Clinton does not win the nomination, the Republicans win in November."
=====
.....and I am a Democrat


Posted by: Jo-Ann | Mar 3, 2008 6:19:59 PM


"THE EMPEROR MIGHT HAVE NO CLOTHES ON!"


I do no understand why Hillary is being asked to get out of the race. The only reason the Democratic big wigs want her to step aside is because they feel that because the Republicans have selected their nominee, the Democrats who have not yet voted should be denied the chance to vote for THEIR Candidate. Lets wake up here. McCain is the "last man standing" through the popular vote. However, on the Democratic side, it is still too close to call. Lets remember "stepping down" seems to be called for more by the press constantly repeating and repeating that she has no chance, but really it is a "dead heat" still. And like Jay said, with Obama having SO MUCH support and money to "finish her off," that is a question on his ability to win in November. Lets look at the facts why this should go to the convention, which by the way, in situations like THIS is WHY WE HAVE A CONVENTION!

Obama is only winning by 110 delegates over Hillary. If Florida and Michigan's primary delegates are reinstated, which they should, since just because they had their primary early, is no reason to disenfranchise voters in the third most populous state, Hillary would be LEADING, Obama by more delegates than he is leading her.

We have to remember on the state level, there are ALSO superdelegates in some states, MUCH MUCH more than 110 delegates left to be given out on the state level in the state conventions.

Generally to win an election in this country with electorial votes where we have to remember, unlike the primary delegates, where it is based on a popular vote instead of "winner takes all", in most elections you generally need 2 of the top 4 delegate rich states and Ohio, or 3 of the top 4 States. Of there top 4 states, 3 of them are overwhelmingly Democratic rich states, Ca, Fl, NY. Texas is about 50% Republican. Up until now, Obama has FAILED to win in theses electorial rich contests, and lost to Clinton by HUGE MARGINS.

Lastly, it seems to me that Obama started to get MOJO, and when McCain was the last man standing. Since in many states, Texas especially, Republicans and independents are now "Democratic Primary, Wild Cards" and CANNOT be counted on to vote in November for Obama. The Republican party's hatred of the Clintons is well documented, so people need to stop and think, are the Republican sabotaging the Democratic primary and voting for the weaker candidate on issues so he can be steam rolled in November? I THINK SO!

Remember Obama, has only been on the national stage for 2 years. He was able to win his seat when a popular Republican had to step down over a scandal, about his "personal life", his relationship with his wife which was a family matter, but he was "hung by the Illinois press." He sailed right into the seat, after 8 years in the Illinois Senate, where if you research his accomplishments and what his peers though about him, you will find that he was just an average candidate, voted usually with the Democrats issues, but also, avoided, possible issues that could be controversial. In stead of voting he is listed as "PRESENT" basically, he was there, but did not vote. If you saw Bill Maher's show on HBO last Friday, he had a reporter go to a big arena rally for Obama and kept asking the same questions to the FANatics, "Name two things Obama has done or accomplished in the Senate or in the Illnois Senate." Most people had trouble naming one, rather then two, and most could not think of one!

I DO BELIEVE that Obama has a great future and probably WILL BE President someday and has an incredible future if he keeps his "nose clean." However fellow Democrats, lets remember whay happened last time we voted in an "outsider" without much experience on the NATIONAL STAGE. Remember Jimmy Carter? He was a nice guy, meant well, and went on to win the Nobel Peace Prize. But as soon as he arrived, "they cut his legs off immediately" even by his own party. The same thing will happen to Obama, especially since he keeps preaching "Change" but he still has not told us, how he is going to do it! Just that he WANTS to do something.

Please take this all into account and stop listening to Oprah Winfrey on who to vote for. This is not the "book of the month club" and even Oprah has been wrong, with just her book club. Remember that guy who faked his credentials, or was not forthcoming with the details? Finally, after he was, "nominated" and his book became a bestseller, we found out he was a fake.

Come everyone, until Obama has more substance, instead of Rock star, which I believe might happen in the future, I think we are going realize, if he gets the nomination, based on Clinton being forced out, instead of discussion at the convention, I am sure by November, we might find out...

"THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES ON!"

Posted by: Ligg | Mar 3, 2008 4:17:35 PM

All of you Hillary supporters threatening to vote for McCain in November if she doesn't get her way is absolutey ridiculous. You are all contradicting yourselves. You are saying you will vote for the man who swears to keep us in an unnessecary war for 100 more years, if you don't get your way.
You're all a bunch of sore losers and cry-babys, just like Hillary.
Why in the world woiuld you vote for someone whoi is completely the opposite of the person you currently support? When the other choice is more similar to your candidate? That just does not make sense, and I don't believe that any of you would. You're just saying that to scare people. It's a statement made out of spite.

Here's something that is for real - There are a ton of life-long Republicans that have already said they are ready to vote Obama over McCain in November, but would not under any circumstance vote for a Clinton. That would be against their religion.

That woman is so arrogant. She assumed the presidency would be literally handed to her, as if owed to her, as if this country is some sort of monarchy, floating back and forthe between BUsh, Clinton and so on. They probably already have plans for Chelsea's run. She assumed it would all be over on Feb 5th, but the overwhelming voice of her party spoke otherwise. Obama not only won 11 primaries in a row, but he won them with BIG numbers, he won hands down!
She has no idea how to combat Obama, because there is nothing! So she is using scare tactics that we have all had enough of over the past 7 years.
She stated last week that the reason she has not done her taxes yet is because she has been so busy with the campaign. Yet, she has found the time to appear on SNL and now The Daily Show.
Give it up already Hillary. Put a fork in her, she's DONE.

Posted by: Susan | Mar 3, 2008 1:45:18 PM

Carl Rove ad Rush Limbaugh want to see Hillary continue.

Good card-carrying members of the Democratic party, that lot are...

They know that the longer we wait before uniting behind a candidate, the better it is for the Republicans.

tI'm all for HRC deciding to stay in the race, but only if she gets candid with the American people: Sen. Clinton, why haven't you filed your tax return info and your earmarks, as Obama has?

Elise in NH
The Obama Minute: quick, easy actions
to support Barack Obama's candidacy

Posted by: Elise in NH | Mar 3, 2008 1:42:04 PM

We should remember that before anything is counted tomorrow, there are still 46% of all availble delegates still at stake. That is a lot of delegates still. It is very doable for either candidate. Hillary should not bow out. Every state should have the chance to be heard. That would be very good for the party.

Posted by: Patrick | Mar 3, 2008 1:37:03 PM

Asking Clinton to drop out is ludicrous. Why should anyone drop out before the primaries are done? That essentially means that "for the good of the party" the folks in the later primaries should not get a say. This whole system just doesn't make sense and gives too much priority to the votes of the people from the states having early primaries. We should go to a U.S. democratic primary...one day...everyone done.

Posted by: KiminNC | Mar 3, 2008 12:35:29 PM

If Obama had lost 11 contests in a row, does anyone think the media would be encouraging him to go on? I didn't think so.
That said, I expect Hillary to go on, thereby helping McCain win the general election.

Posted by: John | Mar 3, 2008 12:27:38 PM

Funny how the Clinton campaign expects to claim that a *combined* net gain of 5-15 delegates out of Ohio and Texas is a "win" (best case scenario).

All of Obama's wins in the last 4 weeks have been by at least that much:
Hawaii +9; Washington +28; Virginia +25; Nebraska +8, etc.

Anyone other than Huckabee would have stepped aside a long time ago, though some say that Huck has some purpose down the road for staying in. Is there some other objective for Hillary to stay in the race?

Posted by: Allen | Mar 3, 2008 11:59:37 AM

I am a woman voter for Obama, and optomistically voting for him should the primaries drag on to Indiana.

My thoughts on Hillary:
1. She seems to feel she's entitled to the Presidency -I do not agree
2. Her foreign policy experience consists of having tea with others as the presidents wife. I don't care if it's 80 countries, it was a social event for her - possibly a list of speaking engagements, but not a policy setting position.
3. 8 years as the first lady is not 8 years as the president.
4. Solutions - she could not manage to organize a health care plan. She's too polarizing to be able to get things done. The Clintons are devisive - they don't play well with others. Obama can get things done - he's gone from nowhere to clearly the frontrunner with grassroots support.
5. Hillary is more of the same old Clinton. We've been there/done that already. She's no agent of change.
6. Why isn't anyone bringing up Whitewater??

Posted by: Lynne | Mar 3, 2008 11:45:56 AM

Senator Clinton won't drop out, no matter what the results are. We're supposed to rally around her and support her, darn it, and she's not going anywhere until she gets her due. This is, after all, entirely about her, right?

Her claim of bringing change is only partly true, in my opinion. I have to admit that she would bring change. Instead of a bitterly divided country led by a Republican president, we'd have a bitterly divided country led by a Democratic one. Other than that, however, it'd be the same broken down, bitter system that caters to special interests and not to citizens. This is the reality of the "experience" that our long-established politicians have, and that some people oddly still seem to want. Personally, I don't think it's worked so well. There are tons of snide comments about buying into a message of hope and change, and "drinking the kool aid" is a tired cliche being overused. I'll offer one of my own for those who prefer "experience." Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Finally, there's the whining about Senator Clinton being treated unfairly in the press. Is there anyone who doesn't think that if their positions were reversed, with Senator Obama having lost eleven contests in a row, that the Clinton campaign wouldn't be applying every kind of pressure imaginable to try and get Senator Obama to drop out? I'm sure they be screaming about a "clear mandate" in that situation. And I sincerely doubt the press would be making up scenario after scenario where Senator Obama could make a comeback.

Posted by: Kim P. | Mar 3, 2008 11:34:39 AM

Karl Rove says "Clinton should fight all the way to the Convention."

Posted by: dennis from MI | Mar 3, 2008 11:29:24 AM

In the last two weeks, Senator Clinton has set the Feminist movement back decades. She is the wrong person to represent all women.

She certainly doesn't represent me.

Posted by: Lynda | Mar 3, 2008 11:07:35 AM

I challenge Senator Clinton's supporters to argue for her candidacy without mentioning that she is a woman.

Senator Obama has broad support among all segments of the population, including women. That fact should tell you something.

Posted by: Lynda | Mar 3, 2008 11:03:03 AM

bravo bravo... i wish those were your words. i wish those will be the superdelegates' words. dont drop out hillary. it's time for america to choose a leader not an american idol.

Posted by: burningchains | Mar 3, 2008 9:40:20 AM

"What Should We Expect to Hear from Camp Clinton Tuesday Night?"

IDK what she'll say. But this is what she will be thinking:

'SHAME! Shame on you Texas. Shame on you Vermont. Shame on you Rhode Island. And Shame On You OHIO!

This belongs to me and you will all regret your conduct once I am President.'

So AmazonTraveler you keep on a fightin till "hell freezes over!" I'm wit ya.

Posted by: The Commander Guy | Mar 3, 2008 9:36:27 AM

Women in the Democratic party are tired of “pimping” for the white boys. It’s our time and it’s now!

There are a very few articles that have even attempted to address Obama. A few were out this weekend. Stating that he wasn’t what he has been suggesting that he is. These are the news pieces that are here, one such article talks about the lobbyist that are “volunteering” for Obama. He’s not taking the “money”, wink, but he is allowing direct access to him. They are in fact running his campaign. (Don’t tell Jake.) Then there is the article mentioning that he isn’t such a “reach across the aisle” man that he projects, but in fact is one to take the “soft issues” and fails to stand when there are tough issues. One article mention that “he was missing in action “ in the Illinois legislature and that he would often not show up for tough votes there, just like he didn’t show up for the Iran vote.

So lobbyists, he says he doesn’t take their money, but he lets them run his campaign. He says he reaches across the aisle, but only when it’s safe. He says he going cause change but he doesn’t show up for tough votes to take a stand on the record. That’s not change, that’s what we’ve got already - Incompetence and irrelevance. Good grief, get past the misogynist press and think about it.

And the part about Hillary and the women backing her tossing in the towel-When hell freezes over!

Posted by: AmazonTraveler | Mar 3, 2008 9:16:39 AM

Post a comment





 

POLITICAL VIDEOS