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Clinton's "Umbrella of Deterrence" for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE
April 17, 2008 6:23 PM
At last night's debate, George Stephanopoulos asked the candidates if U.S. policy should be to treat an Iranian attack on Israel as if it were an attack on the United States.
Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said that he would work to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of the Iranians but that he would "take no options off the table when it comes to preventing them from using nuclear weapons or obtaining nuclear weapons, and that would include any threats directed at Israel or any of our allies in the region."
Iran need understand, he said, "that an attack on Israel is an attack on our strongest ally in the region, ...one whose security we consider paramount, and ...that would be an act of aggression that...I would consider an attack that is unacceptable, and the United States would take appropriate action."
Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said that the U.S. "should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region."
(The headline in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz: "Clinton vows 'massive' U.S. retaliation if Iran attacks Israel.")
But more on that umbrella...
That umbrella of deterrence would be offered, Clinton suggested, in order to deter other nations in the region "from feeling that they have to acquire nuclear weapons. You can't go to the Saudis or the Kuwaitis or UAE and others who have a legitimate concern about Iran and say: 'Well, don't acquire these weapons to defend yourself' unless you're also willing to say we will provide a deterrent backup and we will let the Iranians know that, yes, an attack on Israel would trigger massive retaliation, but so would an attack on those countries that are willing to go under this security umbrella and forswear their own nuclear ambitions."
This is a rather bold proposal. Washington Post columnist Jim Hoagland proposed something similar in January 2007 when he wrote:
"The United States should also be prepared to extend guarantees of territorial security for Arab states in the Gulf region. Bush should announce that he wants consultations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab states -- as well as principal U.S. allies in Europe -- on extending a U.S. or NATO nuclear umbrella over friendly states in the Gulf. This would be a direct defensive response to Iran's destructive drive for a nuclear program that can produce atomic weapons. U.S. guarantees would enable Arab states to forgo developing their own nuclear arsenals, just as the U.S.-Japan bilateral security treaty is intended to keep Japan nuclear-free."
But Doug Bandow, a former special assistant to President Reagan, says this proposal is a dangerous one.
"It’s one thing to promise to respond to a nuclear attack by a potential global hegemon, the Soviet Union, against a major ally, such as Germany or Japan, especially when Washington has deliberately disarmed them," he wrote last year in The National Interest. "Very different is to promise to protect Jordan or Kuwait, friendly countries, true, but neither historic nor important allies, against an attack by Iran, a regional power without global reach. The latter is an extraordinary extension of a doctrine fraught with danger."
That's because, he wrote, such an umbrella "makes conflict more likely in other ways. First, if the U.S. commitment is not credible, there is no deterrent effect. ...Second, if war erupts, U.S. involvement (assuming America makes good on its promise) is automatic. Washington loses the ability to weigh costs and benefits in the particular case at the particular time...Third, offering to lend America’s military to a friendly nation reduces the latter’s need to develop its own defense and foster its own alliances. This perverse impact of U.S. defense promises and deployments is evident in East Asia today. The primary example is Japan, which only now, six decades after the end of World War II, is debating a more active defense and foreign policy that is commensurate with its abilities and interests."
He calls the policy "reckless."
What say you?
- jpt
April 17, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (65)
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You can't nuke Iran, all the nuclear research is hidden deep in underground bunkers all over the country. We'd have to send in troops. I think Congress and the American people may want to have a say before we commit to these tangling alliances [..though Hillary already pledged US support if she is elected.]
Posted by: Chris336 | Apr 18, 2008 9:50:14 PM
"When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross."
-Sinclair Lewis
Posted by: NU | Apr 18, 2008 5:00:03 PM
OBAMA AND THE FLAG(s)
Does anyone recall, after all the posts about Obama's lack of patriotism in not wearing a pin and not placing his hand over his heart --- when Obama made his “Throw Grandma Under The Bus” speech about how Wright was not Wrong?
He stood on that podium immersed in about eight swirling American flags; I thought they were going to swallow him.
I thought too, that that was a cheap 'shot'.
As for his campaigning in Florida and denying them the right to be counted, it was unfair and unpolitical. He did campaign in Florida. He was on the Florida ticket. Their votes should count.
His tactics remind me of the ways Obama had leveled the playing field in his last two elections in Illinois.
You can read about them in back issues of the Chicago Tribune, among other papers.
OBAMA HAS TOO MANY CONNECTIONS TO TOO MANY TERRORISTS AND ANTI-AMERICANS. WE DON'T NEED HIM OR HIS ANTI-AMERICAN WIFE IN THE WHITE HOUSE!
NO OBAMA!
Posted by: 1proudamerican2008 | Apr 18, 2008 4:43:28 PM
Why should we put American lives in danger for Israel?
Especially when they have the 6th largest nuclear arsenal, and a state that is based on discrimination against Christians and Muslims, Palestinians and Arabs.
Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich were right on this. So was CIA analyst Michael Scheuer. Israel isn't worth a single American life.
Posted by: NU | Apr 18, 2008 4:18:25 PM
So, you cite one security specialist who disagrees with her proposal. What are your qualifications in that area? I'm assuming you don't have any.
What about some balance here? If you think this subject is worth the space, then how about an expert that supports her position to back her up.
Her position sounds thoughtful to me. Of course I'm not a specialist in this area either. But, neither are you.
Posted by: s. valenti | Apr 18, 2008 3:23:00 PM
hilary wants to put a bigger united states FOOTPRINT in the middle east with an "umbrella" defense?
that is just NUTS.
not only is it more of the same from GW BUSH... but this is not something that you say.. and then NOBODY follows up with at least ONE MORE QUESTION!
NUTS!
Posted by: drzoon | Apr 18, 2008 2:27:15 PM
Listen to the liberals whine when Obama gets asked tough questions that might give us a tiny insight to his character! All you cry babies out there are saying "We want them to talk about the issues!" Guess what? They have spoken about issues for 20 something debates. And we have heard nothing BUT let's hope, let's change, let's secure our borders, let's give everyone health care, let's stop the war, let's bail out those foreclosures, let's improve education and create jobs. Is this Polly Anna or what? There are very few specifics because, guess what? It all changes when a President walks through the doors of the white house and REALIZES his power is limited, things are so MUCH MORE complicated than he knew or even imagine AND HELLO, families cannot have everything they "want" on their budgets, so what makes us believe the government can do all this? What an overindulged party of complainers the Democrats have become. Is this really what my party is all about?
Posted by: Bev | Apr 18, 2008 11:20:49 AM
Obama states he will meet with terrorist. Well, the leader of Hamas wants Obama to be the nest President, told this in his meeting with Carter. I wonder what the American Jewish population feels about that. Carter has give now legitimacy to Hamas, wonder what Obama would give them. The teachings of Obamas church (Black liberation theology) and his pastor , Obama has made him proud. He just doesn't wear the flag pin!
Posted by: jp,michigan | Apr 18, 2008 10:06:39 AM
dl sez: This is "Cowboy Diplomacy".
No, dl. It is a military strategy for a world where unreasonable people get access to power. It's called MAD and it is the ultimate Spy vs Spy. Neither side using it can be "The Good Guys" because the only result is death and destruction at scale.
According to the last CIA estimate, Iran can have a working nuclear weapon within two years of restarting their production lines. The pattern is very clear. Once India had it, Pakistan had to have it. Now both hold each others throats. That is nuclear proliferation.
We have nukes. Israel has nukes. Iran will have nukes. If you want this to continue down the straits, do nothing as you suggest. If you want to restrain it, guarantee the results of deployment.
One can *hope* for reasonable responses but as Teddy Roosevelt said, "A soft word AND a big stick..."
I admire dreamers. I don't vote for them to occupy the Oval Office. You are an Obama supporter. Fine. I am a Hillary supporter. Fine. The difference is my candidate has articulated sound plans and shown sound judgment and character. When it is time to make tough and unpopular decisions, she can do that competently. Your candidate will be writing a speech.
I'm no fan of Bush or unilateralism. Preemption is stupid policy. On the other hand, a weak hand played weakly loses every time and your position is one of hopeful weakness. I'm not trusting the future of my children to you because all you will have when it doesn't work out is an apology and another speech.
Say NO To Thugs.
Posted by: len | Apr 18, 2008 9:59:25 AM
It's disgusting when some of you once again "rise to the occasion" and instead of focusing on this whacked proposal from a candidate (John McCain would even say it was whacked because he is not a neo-con he just palys one on tv...)
because soem of you I think realize this is a scary a** proposal and not thought out with respect to cost, constitutionality, and our PR stance in the world (where the terrorists use this imperialistic image to recruit)...
so you turn and put some hogwash slander about someone Obama knew (and yes he WAS just a friendly acquaintance...what do these public candidates have 5000 of those?)...
this IS the issue not some slanderous stupid old politics trying to win.
I for one don;t want "cowboy politics" they will destroy us faster than Iran can...or they will help Iran destroy us.
That is what this election was supposed to be about.
Posted by: dl | Apr 18, 2008 7:01:31 AM
Dogsoldier...we don't do this. That is common sense. Otherwise I would be voting for John McCain...John Mccain doesn't even want to protect all these countries...not only does it look like imperialism which the terrorists use as its strongest tool for recruitment but it is national fiscal suicide.
and the President has rules about "Massive Retaliation." there are checks and balances. Then again this is the woman who voted for those checks and balances to be removed.
Posted by: dl | Apr 18, 2008 6:51:56 AM
This is "Cowboy Diplomacy".
Call it what it is and it has gotten us so far.
Lets see question the opponents patriotism and police the world.
what are these supporters doing they are being brainwashed by the same tactics of fear that got us here in the first place.
Posted by: dl | Apr 18, 2008 6:47:41 AM
Mtrish
Are you implying that Obama had a closer relationship with some of the figures in his life?
Interesting how supposedly unimportant relationships in Obama's life are off limits for questions....yet it is fair game to ask Hillary or her daughter about her sex life.
I really don't care who anyone sleeps with....but I'm pretty sensitive to anti-American hate talk and people that blow up police stations and the Pentagon.
Let it sink in...Obama wants to be President of the United States and he can't stand criticism and has launched a negative whispering campaign through Axelrod.....This sounds like Bush 3 to me.
Posted by: Jackie | Apr 18, 2008 2:22:50 AM
Hillary Clinton is all set to open a can of "massive retaliation" on Iran. The only thing she's not prepared to do is meet with them and talk. Why? Because she says that meeting the U.S. President is a reward and an honor that you earn for doing what America wants you to do. How patronizing is that?
I'll stick with Senator Obama. He's not too proud to meet with anyone. I'm confident that he will not send a single American soldier to their death until diplomatic solutions to conflicts have been exhausted.
As for Clinton -- she seems ready to jump right to that massive retaliation thing. Very uncool.
Posted by: fjfjdvdv | Apr 17, 2008 10:57:02 PM
I did not like Hilary's comments to Obama talking about Rev Wright, Farakkan or other black figures that Obama happen to know.
Did he ask her about what her relationship with Monica Lowisky prior to her husband's affair with her. And in the white house at that. Where was she"
Posted by: Mtrish | Apr 17, 2008 10:54:07 PM
I think this is a brilliant idea from Hillary. We need a leader like her to be our president not a radical minded person.
Posted by: JACK | Apr 17, 2008 8:26:03 PM
Did you say brilliant idea? Did you really think about what she is saying? You think this is the opposite of radical? Oh, my. This idea is the kind of idea that the neocons would propose. What planet are you on?
Posted by: pmorlan | Apr 17, 2008 9:13:41 PM
I don't know enough about this subject to have an opinion. But I sure would trust Hillary before I would trust Barack.
Posted by: tww | Apr 17, 2008 9:11:43 PM
"What will deter Bill Jefferson Clinton from creating another scandal with a barely legal intern?"
Hillary, the Secret Service and ALL of Chealsea Clinton's admirers which is pretty much all the straight guys in America and maybe more. No offense but in this season of identity politics, I only speak for mine. :-)
Posted by: len | Apr 17, 2008 9:02:50 PM
I get that S.B. They have to find it. It isn't a one time thing. Eventually, Iran will have their bomb. Even if bombed, they will buy. Expressed intent is the best predictor of behavior.
So guarantee the results of deployment so it will be costly. Reagan got that right. I know it's MAD. It works.
The dish: I am not afraid of Iran. I am wary of their sponsors. Guarantee the results. Otherwise, fear works.
Say NO to Thugs.
Posted by: len | Apr 17, 2008 8:46:52 PM
Clinton's nuclear umbrella? Matter of fact, Kuwait has already put feelers out to Israel to be included under their nuclear umbrella because of Iran. It is believed other Arab states are now looking at the nuclear question in light of the Iranian nuclear weapons program in order to protect themselves. For the most part I believe Israel is capable of defending themselves and with the Arrow 3, Israel's newest missile interceptor missiles system, is capable of intercepting balletic missiles even with evading capability which Iran now processes. The only problem, all intercepted nuke missiles, should Iran launch, will be intercepted over Arab territory.
Therefore, is Clinton's suggestion valid? At this stage of the debate I don't think this is a valid option for US forces even though I am a Clinton supporter. The rest of the world needs to answer this exact question. On the other hand, the spread of nuclear weapons is accelerating and its only a matter of time before most middle east states have to make decisions for themselves on the Iran nuclear weapons program. I suggest most middle east states will opt for a weapons program. Then what do we do?
Posted by: Dogsoldier | Apr 17, 2008 8:46:02 PM
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