Political Punch

i love the arguments with such passion, it's like a soap opera with the audience rooting for their favorite and bashing the others. every politician, being human, has good and bad points. every poltician, being in this game of politics we have in america,

So, the tanks of '68 returning?

Actually he did not count the number of delegates Hillary has. All of the other sites: CNN, FoxNews, MSNBC, all show that Hillary has 1,500+ delegates, so that makes his math totally wrong.

JP said the following (and I cannot agree more):

If Clinton thinks it’s so bad to "disenfranchise" the voters of Florida and Michigan, why is she trying to get the pledged delegates to disenfranchise the voters they are pledged to represent?

Why even vote if someone is not going to faithfully represent your vote and the tens of thousands of other voters who assumed they would be represented by the pledged delegate?

Well said JP!!!!!

carmen z
thanks for your comments
every word you have written is so true
I could feel the heart in everyword.
with you comments-all of the hillary supporters and everyone else knows
who the true patriots are
and who really has the betterment of the country and the world at heart.

If Clinton thinks it’s so bad to "disenfranchise" the voters of Florida and Michigan, why is she trying to get the pledged delegates to disenfranchise the voters they are pledged to represent?

Why even vote if someone is not going to faithfully represent your vote and the tens of thousands of other voters who assumed they would be represented by the pledged delegate?

Haha, Rove. McCain doesn't stand a chance... I think Dems have learned their lessons. Once we figure out who our nominee is, we'll get our heads on straight. We're outraising Mccain by something like 6 to 1.

Hehehehehe... keep hating each other, Dems! It's just what us Republicans want! I can't believe we actually have a shot at winning- only the Democrats could ruin THIS chance they have!

How could he predict his "MATH", if the Final results aren't tallied.

You all just wish this beautiful, talented, competent, graceful, difficult,woman and mother, was all that you claim.

To find out about the REAL Sentor Obama, your "SAVIOR"--after reading these, then tell us about the delusions you DON'T HAVE.

Hopefuly the Socialist/Lib party will be no more!

Elle, you wrote: "She endorsed John McCain OVER Barack Obama." I wouldn't characterize it that way. We all know that Sen. Clinton will practically say and do anything to become President of the United States. Well, she knows that if Sen Obama wins the nomination that there is a chance -- depending upon who is forecasting, somewhere between a 45%-55% -- of winning the general election. And should Sen. Obama win, then she would probably be too old to run in 2016. (She knows that she could not oppose a President Obama in 2012.) So either she is in the general election this year or her last shot of becoming president will be 2012. And if she does not win the nomination this year, then the only real chance for her in 2012 is if Sen. McCain wins the general election.

That just goes to show you how sincere -- Not! -- she is about her agenda. Everyone acknowledges that there is about a 5% difference in what she and Sen. Obama are advocating. Thus Sen. Clinton is putting her own interest ahead of the cause that she claims she has been fighting for over the past 35 years.

The media keeps repeating all the supers who moved ot BO after Feb5. I am curious to know how many moved to support BO after Mar4 and still how many pledged for BO after Dean, Reid and Pelosi talked about 'the something' in place to resolve the competition. All of the Wright stories broke after Mar 4 and that to me is a difference like night and day!

It is actually much simpler than you present there Jake. In 1982, the DNC changed the rules for delegates allowing them to change their vote as if they deem fit. This allows multi-ballot conventions that would be needed when a race is close like this one. The superdelegates would prefer the delegates make the decision of course! End result? The voters provide snapshots in time and the delegates can use those snapshots as guidelines but they are not bound to them. Most will follow the guidelines as usual but only 120 of the 4418 would need to change to tip the election - less than 3% of the delegates. This is highly plausible and certainly justification for both candidates to stay in the race through the convention. Are you implying that the voters of the remaining contests do not matter? Certainly they matter as do FL and MI voters! Their delegates need guidelines too. All voices should be heard - even if Obama doesnt want to listen!

Elle,
you might want to remember that approximately 20% of the bho supporters said they would vote for McCain if hillary was the nominee...goes both ways my dear.

Hillary has never been able to challenge bho on a level playing field because of the unbelievable bias of the media, and party elite.
Michelle obama was just in nc. when they were setting up for the talk, supporters were saying "we need more white people in here." they then proceeded to move peoples seats to get "white people in the front rows. what if hillary had said the same about "black people".....
bho got a free ride on the whole wright deal. He may have been able to talk himself out of being tied to the preacher, but what about the tenets of the church? it says, to paraphrase, that they are to give their money and acquired skills to the black community, to pledge their allegiance to the black community, to embrace the black value system. you know what would happen if that was hillary's church talking about the white community and value system...
there would be no end to the discussions about hillary and her leadership abilities if she had voted "present" as much as bho...
the press would jump all over hillary if she did not cover her heart for the pledge of allegiance or the star spangled banner...
If half hillary's contributers where ceo's, etc from large corporartions, and were "bundling" to increase donations, we would never hear the end of it, but bho...free ride.
And the list goes on.
And the lies continue.
And bho continues his campaign on a free pass.

So, when one wonders why a Clinton supporter would think so little of their democratic ideals and principals (think Big Picture, like say, the Supreme freaking Court, for eg.), that they would rather cast a vote for the Republican -- the pro-life Republican who has pledged to put strict Constructionist judges on the Supreme Court -- than for the other Democratic Candidate, the answer is quite simple:

Why, of course, it's because Hillary Clinton endorsed John McCain. She endorsed John McCain OVER Barack Obama.

And she's told her supporters that over and over again in so many ways. She's given them PERMISSION to think and do the unthinkable: vote *against* a fellow democrat if the democrat YOU want, doesn't win the Democratic primary.

Remember? When she said she'd and her "distinguished friend" John McCain had crossed the threshold to become "commander-in-chief" but "you'd have to ask Barack Obama with respect to his candidacy"?

That's right. There she was standing up there in her press conference in DC on March 6/08 surrounded by flags and Generals, saying that Obama would have to speak for himself as to whether he's passed that threshold, all the while as she stood up there as the Official SPOKESPERSON -- for HERSELF -- and -- JOHN McCAIN.

As a woman and a feminist, she has become a massive disappointment to me. I'm for the best person. Not the best (enter qualifier here). I'm for the person who conquers the divide. Not for the person who divides and conquers.

Jay Svenson:

YOu should look into the way Obama has "levelled" the his voting field in Illinois by eliminating his competitors.

Look it up in the Chicago Tribune; it IS scarey!

Linda,fl

Not to worry; you've been disenfranchised by your buddy.
No vote for you!

Ta Ta.....

Looks like somebody here is out of mind, meaning Hillary having some qualification. Where did You get it, angry Guy from Mi?
She never managed anything and anybody(could not manage even in her family), starting this campaign she demonstrated complete disability to manage: neither the team nor finances nor messages no ideas, except Tale-talking: all oriented for VERY low developed people, who can believe, that being the Wife of Mechanic woman can repair the car ( do You? Then do not go to mechanic, go to his wife, she will repair it "perfectly" and certainly cheaper).
If this is Your credo - You better sit quietly with those stupid thoughts and do not talk to public.
The problem still is - she is so dirty and nasty, that people physically can not stand that dems mess And that is SHE, who created it at no end (because of nasty nature and attitude).

But we will stand it.
You know, people do have wisdom.
And you, clinton's toys,would not change the way of History.

So sit quietly.
Her time is gone, both - in math and in common sense.

carmen zayas ;

That was a wonderful post.

Thank you.

GIVE 'EM HELL, HILLARY!!!!!

With all this talk in the 'ether' about whether or not it will be "FAIR" if FL and MI are counted (and politically they've got to be)--and by the way it was SC, NH and IA who ALSO broke the rules--I've never seen that they had "permission" from the DNC.
I'm wondering-If Obama is nominated--can we live with a Nominee that was essentially determined by the CAUCUS SYSTEM (and same day registration states). I mean, what could be LESS representational than that? Where anyone can show up, and the whole process is full of intimidation, mismanagement, confusion and chicanery??? Shouldn't we ask ourselves what's going on when a state like TEXAS has a record turnout of voters--ONE candidate (Clinton) wins handily in a legal, organized system--but the OTHER candidate (Obama) wins in the caucuses (and therefore gets the delegates??? I mean, doesn't that SMELL BAD TO YOU?
And what about the rumor that "LOCAL"AA OBAMA supporters were showing up in WI (the whitest place on earth) in interstate buses--and the blue haired ladies were afraid to challenge them & let them vote...IS ANYONE ELSE HEARING THIS STUFF?
AND, AREN'T WE WORRIED??

Why does it have to be so personal? Why would someone have no respect for me because I support Obama? I've served my country overseas, I think I've earned the right to make my own choice. I support Obama because I think he has a better chance to beat McCain, and I think he is more likely to change the political tone of Washington. If Hillary wins the nomination, I will vote for her- I think she's a strong candidate. But I think Obama is stronger.

I don't think any less of Hillary supporters, so why would some of them think less of me?

In such a close race, it is important for every state to count, including Michigan and Florida. If the Democratic Party didn't want to have to potentially wait until June for a nominee, they should have structured the primary calendar to end earlier.

As for Nancy Pelosi's statement about superdelegates "overriding" the pledged delegates, that seems to go against the entire purpose for having superdelegates to begin with (weren't they designed as somewhat of a check and balance, in case the superdelegates felt the most popular candidate might not necessarily be the most electable)?

And, as for the benefit of allowing the primaries to continue, it is in the Democratic Party's benefit to allow the vetting process for Obama to continue. Over the upcoming weeks, they should get a better picture of which candidate should actually be more electable in the general.

someone on this post asked, "why the anger?"

Let me share MY anger ...because my anger is making way to weariness that woman are STILL fighting the same prejudice we have been fighting for sooooo long, and a sadness that if Hillary does not win the nomination (I pray the super delegates will do the right thing!) - that this country - after all we have been through for the last 8 years, will ONCE AGAIN have to chose between two under qualified men.

so here goes...

A woman, highly qualified, exceptionally brilliant, with a deep commitment to this country, with 35 years (a lifetime) of making a difference in both public and private life - of defending the poor, the disabled, the young, of standing up for the rights of women and children everywhere in this word, who has earned the respect of leaders everywhere including Cesar Chavez, Maya Angelou, Gloria Steinem, etc., etc.

... she FINALLY runs for president.

She has the great combination of heart, soul, experience, savvy, poise, brains and compassion.

She is supported by the majority of democrats, she has the nomination in the bag (as she should she is the best candidate). With her the democrats will win in November.

Then from left field a young man, with NO proven experience, NO proven history of ever making a difference, with a bland dismal voting record, with a history of being cheap in donating to charities, starts a campaign based on flowery speech and vague politics - talking about unity and peace.

never mind there was peace and harmony and unity in the party - everyone supported Hillary.

he talks flowery - but has nothing to show that he has ever stood for change, or made a difference for anyone but himself.

then we find out that he surrounds himself with people who are racists - who blame white people for everything - who condemn people for their sexual orientation, and want to subject women.

then we have the media slamming the female and building up the man. everything she does is negative - everything he says is golden. they make sexist insults (as do Obama supporters) of her deviousness, shrill voice, and other sexist remarks. they rake her over the goals, and bring him coffee in bed.

he steals his policies from Hillary - she knows the issues - foreign and domestic inside and out - he parrots everything she says. takes credit for all her ideas.

and blacks flock to him. because of what he has done for his race??? hardly! - Hillary has done more for people of color, especially women of color than Obama has ever done (or will probably ever do.)

young people flock to him... because he has done so much for them??

Yes truly I do feel anger and I feel personally betrayed.

After having sat in boardrooms for many years watching intelligent women work twice as hard as men and get less respect and less pay, and watched women bring great ideas to the table only to have their ideas beaten down only to resurface against from a man's mouth and suddenly be a viable idea.

yes I am sadden, I am sadden by blacks that flock to Obama, especially black women, who are not being true to chosing the BEST and most qualified candidate.

I am sadden by young ladies following Obama's flowery words, after all the barriers Hillary, and women like her, have broken to allow them to have the choices they have today.

I am sadden that once again the media has helped divide this country between race and sex. When truly like any job - your proven work history, experience and qualifications are what should get you the job.

I am sadden by women like Nancy Pelosi who has so ardently asked for our first viable female candidate to withdraw early - just because Obama is considering Pelosi as his VP. Sad. sell out.

If women voted for Hillary it's because she's a woman. but if blacks, and men, vote for Obama it is because he is somehow he is a better choice?

As a Hillary supporter I will probably not vote in the general election if Hillary is not the nominee.

Why? Because I am sick and tired of having to chose between two unqualified men, who are only in it for themselves.

because Obama will not make a good leader - neither will mccain. Hillary has been there for the democratic party for many years - fund raising for Obama, Pelosi, Richardson and many others - only to be betrayed by them when she is the best candidate.

I have no respect for Obama or his supporters - he knows he is not the best candidate, not the best qualified, and that the republicans want him to win because its Mccain's only chance to win.

he has to know. and yet he continues to "talk" a good game.

we are so close to REAL CHANGE, not just empty words. Pennsylvania PLEASE DO THE RIGHT THING!! and super delegates - do what you were created to do (long before this campaign) make the BEST choice for the country and for the democratic party - VOTE for Hillary!!

Thanks for this post, sir. I appreciate it when people do the math for me, I try doing it on the various delegate calculators but it's just not as fulfilling.

But where do you get the idea that Hillary is pulling out dirty tricks? Do you call it dirty tricks that supporters of Hillary, both women, men and black voters are dirty tricks? We spend hours of our own time calling voters all over the country. We canvass for her. WE read articles attacking her and respond to these articles with fact that we know. We know what her ideas are on issues. (Not like Barack supporters who when ask, can't discuss his ideas) We know that Barack's ideas seem to magically develop after hearing Hillary in the debate. Before that, he talked in generalities. What did Hillary actually do while first lady and senator from New York that makes you think she is so devious? She is a woman like my frontier grandmother who was strong, loving, respected and caring. She would go out of her way to make sure her frontier store provided credit, some never repaid and she never ask for repayment, to any person in need. She did this without making that person feel demeaned. Behind the scenes I watched her and developed a real model for "women". She had a partnership with my grandfather that enveloped religion, economics and a good community that was awesome. Neither one felt the other was subject to the other. That is the person that Hillary is; is that what is so objectable to Hillary? That she is a strong competent woman; that you buy into the hateful disrespectful tone of the media that a woman dares to raise herself to the level of President? Again name one dirty, hateful trick. Oh, maybe it is that she dared to say that she would leave a church if she had a pastor who spite forth hate messages about America instead of love as Christianity teachers. Are you buying the venom of the media when they questioned this as an attack. It is the truth. NO decent person would stay in a church and allow thier children to hear this, UNLESS THEY BELIEVED IT THEMSELVES or were a political OPPORTUNIST! Either reason should disqualify them from being president of our United States. Maybe you buy into the twisting of her words when she tried to do honor to Dr. King in South Carolina, when she repeated historical truth that Lyndon JOhnson rose to support Dr. King and get the 1964 Civil Rights act passed. Obama's people savagely accursed her of racism. She spoke the truth! Did Obama's people have any scruples about demeaning Johnson who stood up for black rights against heavy pressure. Why is the media set around and let this pass? Why didn't they take the chance of a lifetime and teach a little history to the young blacks who do not really understand the enormous sacrifices made to gain them their rightful place in America. Black, whites, jewish, catholic and protestenant individual did this; some died during this time. How dare the media let this ride without doing their job and calling Barack on this. I have black friends who will not support Barack because to do so would be to betray their long time friends, the Clintons, for race. They feel this would be disloyal and also a betrayal of Dr. King's dream of having individuals judged by their actions, talents and competence, not race. Read the "I have a Dream" speech. Again what dreadful things has Hillary done, except forego private sector to work in the service of the people, particulary the ones who do not have the power to speak for themselves. The thing I am most amazed at is the fact that every time Hillary actually focuses on the reason Barack is not as qualified for the Presidency as she is, the Obama campaign launches into this attack mode of calling it dirty tricks, mean, racist, etc. The media gives him a free ride on this. Do they continue to pursue him on his contacts with the Canadian government to say, "I don't really mean what I am saying about NAFTA." Only FOX is pursuing the Resko connections that Barack has had for years, such as buying prime property at a discount, listening for 20 years to A preacher advocating that America is a murderer, whites are out to keep the black race down, and then LYING about it Be careful, the prosecution of Resko and the group surrounding and supporting Barack for so many years may give us some unpleasant revelations; maybe too late, after Barack is chosen as the nominee. I won't even go into Barack's family ties in Africa. I am trying to do the job the media should be doing and determining whether they are true or not. The press is given special considerations in our Constitution for a reason. They are not taking this responsibility seriously. What about right now discussing Barack's ties to Ayers and other radical groups like the "weathermen". Keep investigating
Hillary is strong and will use that strength, smartness and talents to work for ordinary Americans like me. She will again help us gain economic prosperity, respect from the world community as well as keep our country safe.

" "An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each"

Well, no wonder. The only candidate who the MSM has given a free ride so far is John McCain. It's amazing.

But that'll change when the Dems have a nominee... just wait see McCain drop in the polls from then on.

NO Republican would be able to win the GE this year. 80% of Americans feel that our country is on wrong track, so what they wish for is: yes, CHANGE. One of the 3 remaining candidates refuses to provide just that. It's the Republican."

@ken: I think this is the only intelligent, rational post on this entire board. It's amazing how many people buy into EXACTLY WHAT THE REPUBLICANS WANT THEM TO DO. No republican is electable on the issues alone in 2008, so they go back to the tried and true method of preaching hate, fear, and lies in hopes of getting people to go against their own beliefs of what is right and what is wrong. Wake up, Democrats!

This is not nearly as complicated as you want to make it.
In the democratic process, each vote should count.
The super delegates do not have any dictate as to how they should vote. Ultimately their vote will hopefully go in the best interest of their party as to who can win in the General Election. Clearly their role is separate from the popular vote. It was created for that purpose.
See, all quite simple.

We interrupt your Obama bashing to report this:

Jake went through all of that stuff above to say is, that in the end, Obama still leads in the ONLY metric that counts -- DELEGATES. Even with FL and MI counting, OBAMA STILL LEADS.

Hillary would have to get eighty percent 237(80%) of the outstanding superdelegates to get the nomination. Obama would only need 165 (55%) to win...

Most likely to win: OBAMA.

Return to your Obama bashing now.

Considering the states of PA, KY, IN, PR and WV qill have twice as many voters as the Obama states (NC, OR, SD, GM, MT), Hillary Clinton will have a net gain of 250K-500k votes winning the POPULAR VOTE (With FL and MI).

I guess Rev. Wright than is worse than Falwell, Robertson, John Hagee, and all the bigots that McCain has embraced. And McCain's extensive ties to lobbyists are no problem.

Do you really think Obama's faults (and yes, he has significant faults) are worse than McCain's??? Are you serious? You really think McCain would be a better president? I guess you must be a fan of the last 7 years, because that's what we'll be getting- more of the same economic and foreign policy.

While I think Hillary is the strongest candidate with the best grasp of the issues, I would probably vote for the Democrat DONKEY MASCOT over McCain.

It's a real shame that rather than try and convince Obama supporters (who, by and large, are decent people who like him better than Hillary) that Hillary is a better candidate, rather than alienate them and (even worse) CAUSE THEM TO VOTE FOR MCCAIN IF HILLARY GETS NOMINATED!!! I'm honestly worried that the vitriol present in posts like yours (and angry Obama supporters) will doom Obama OR Clinton in the general election!

" Lily from Florida":

Well, guess WHAT?? I actaully voted for the FRAUD OBAMA in Feb. before researching him...He scares me more than Mccain!!! I have a loyalty to this country.. not a political party... and if this Dem party can't even stand up for a core value like Universal Health care...

BUT stands by Obama after learning his associations with Wright and other racist, bigotted, antisematic,antiamerican...well...I WILL NOT THEN BE ASSOCIATED BY THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY...

Well if that's the case, Jenn, I weep for the Democratic party. The Republicans will be laughing all the way to the white house, if angry voters like you (Obama supporters and Clinton supporters) choose McCain if their candidate doesn't win the nomination- us Democrats just can't get our act together. If we can't unite behind the Democratic candidate THIS year, of all years, then the Republicans will probably always win.

Sorry Jenn, but I'm sure you realize that for every Democrat who says they'll vote for McCain over Obama, there's another Democrat who says they'll vote for McCain over Clinton. Wouldn't you much prefer that the Democrat wins? I'd rather exert my efforts uniting the party behind the Democratic candidate.

Well...of course Obama is winning if you DON"T count MI and FL... I thought this Obama was a civil rights lawyer... apprently voters only count when it doesn't cut into his numbers... what a FRAUD!!!

as for the person who said "Please, please use your head and not your heart- I really hope Hillary manages to pull it out, but I WILL support either candidate, because I think a McCain continuation of Bush's policies would be DISASTROUS."

DON"T THINK SO!!!... Mccain is getting our vote...this is no longer the Dem party I remember... Kerry/Obama "Universal Healthcare a NONstarter"...on ABC's "THIS WEEK"....

Where are the Democrats going to be in June? In a world of hurt.

I'm a Hillary supporter, but I will support Obama if he wins. I don't understand how ANYONE who supports Hillary and thinks the Bush administration is among the worst in history could vote for McCain. Please, please use your head and not your heart- I really hope Hillary manages to pull it out, but I WILL support either candidate, because I think a McCain continuation of Bush's policies would be DISASTROUS.

Got news for you..math is all wrong. MI & FL will be seated as is and Hillary will win 8 out of the last 10. Besides for a lot of votes Obamas handling of Wright, Farrakhan, thesis, and other like issues begs the question, Is it enough? Absolutely not! In fact what Obama has said and done is going totally in the wrong direction! Excuses! Rationalization! Continued allegiance! If it had been Clinton's or McCain's white pastor who preached not just 5 snippets but rather week after week, month after month, year after year that another race with in America is the enemy and America is not our friend because that race controls America do you really think what Obama has said and done to date would be enough if it were Clinton or McCain? Absolutely not! If Clinton or McCain’s pastor had written supporting Hamas and had visited terrorist states in support of those terrorist states and we found that out would what Obama has said and done be enough if it were Clinton or McCain? Absolutely not! If we heard this white pastor was a part of there campaign team and had been there spiritual adviser for 20 years and was still continuing to be there chosen spiritual adviser would we be OK with that? Absolutely not! If they were still attending that Church when 24 other churches of the same exact faith are within the same driving distance would it be acceptable with the American public? Absolutely not! If Clinton or McCain had thrown there grandmother under the bus but not the pastor, especially if that grandmother was of the race that the pastor weekly’s innuendoes called the enemy would we think that was the right thing said and done? Absolutely not! Americas answer should be a resounding absolutely not to Obama! In fact it is not even close to being enough right words, action and attitude! If it had been Clinton or McCain’s involvement with this kind of pastor and spiritual adviser the cry from the public and the media would be non stop as it absolutely should be. Obama’s handling of this issue should absolutely not be enough for any TYPICAL AMERICAN citizen of any race, creed, color, age, gender, or sexual orientation.

Hillary will be the winner.If not the democatic party will not win in Nov.2008

One further point:

Since when is Obama "disenfranchising voters"? He has done NOTHING to the voters of FL and MI other than abide by his signed pledges regarding their votes. Its the DNC and the state parties making the decisions and rules -- how does that become Obama's fault other than its an easy thing to hang the hat of your anger on?

Hillary has decided that her pledge on FL and MI should be recinded, and I don't blame her for trying, but I don't see how anyone could blame Obama for the situation. The Clinton Machine is the most powerful voice in the Democratic Party and could have had plenty of influence on how FL and MI were handled BEFORE the decisions were made. In fact, Clinton's top advisers were some of the main proponents of the decision to not count the votes.

Now that it is clear she must have FL and MI to have even a colorable argument for the nomination, cries of disenfranchisment by her supporters seem disingenuous at best.

If the table were turned, and Hillary had the delegate lead Obama has, and he was doggedly pursuing her with a "kitchen sink" strategy, he would already have been forced aside.

Its a testiment to Hillary's power and perserverance that she has been able to stand up this long to the movement that Obama represents.

Don't throw around "disenfranchisement" only when it benefits your choice -- its petty.

To all those who say Obama can not win in the GE: that is undoubtedly what many people told him about the Dem Nomination 6 months ago.

To all the OH harpers: There is nothing magical about OH. HISTORICALLY, there has been a statistical co-incidence. Nothing more. Mathematically there are many ways to win an election without winning OH.

To all the "what about the SD's/": Super Delegates are politicians; if the Obama maintains his overall lead, they will vote for him. Look how many he has picked up in the past month compared to HRC. The Clinton's have already attempted to publicly bully them without success. No way they would someday go behind closed doors and agree with them.

Bottom line is that without a huge HRC win in PA, it is over. If PA is close, he'll strike a deal for her support and then help with her debt.

At which time MI and FL will be seated and everyone will be happy!

Or I could be wrong...

Here is my question for all the people who claim to be Democrats but say Obama "can't win": If he is the nominee, will you rally behind him and make every effort to prove yourself wrong, and rally votes to the Democratic nominee? Or will you be so angry that your choice wasn't picked that you will "take your vote and go home"?

If the former, then Obama has a great chance to win. If the latter, you are no Democrat.

Has everyone forget that a Court of Law has rules the Michigan vote unconstitutional? Those numbers can not, will not, do not count! They can make symbolic display of seating them 50/50, but outside of that, there is little that they can do, because those results have been ruled invalid. Clinton supporters: DO YOU UNDERSTAND THIS? Or have you conveniently forgot? Clinton supporters who refuse to accept a black man as President: How can Hillary win when over half of the total voting population find her distrustful? Find her polarizing? In your world, do you honestly think that she only needs her supporters to win the GE? Doesn't need the AAs, doesn't need the youth vote? Doesn't need the fed up Republican and Independent cross over voters that Obama has rallied on his side? That there are many, many more Republicans that will vote against her in a GE vice Democrats who will vote for her? Do any of you so called Clinton Democrats care about the disenfranchised voters who followed the rules as laid out and didn't vote for either candidate in Michigan and Florida? I guess you don't, not if it affects Hillary's aspirations. So hypocritical the Clinton campaign and many of it's supporters have become. Rezko and Write! Big issues to you, but Peter Paul, Norman Hsu, CAFTA, NAFTA, Iraq, the lies, the inconsiderations, the gross miss-steps, the lack of a coherent strategy et al mean nothing to you! That spells hypocrisy, pure and simple! You don't want to vote for Obama, fine. But, if he is the nominee, and you decide that your hatred for blacks, or men, or whatever it is that drives your anger and prevents you from supporting him, then deal with the consequences of another Republican White House. You will have deserved it, for there is NO WAY, no way that Hillary will ever find her fanny seated in the chair of the President. Not if the American public has anything to do with it!

She will take this to Denver. She will FIGHT for the FL and MI voters to be counted and will more than likely succeed in doing so after all the speeches about "one person, one vote"....and this IS the Democratic Party. We let everyone vote whether Donna Brazile wants them to vote or not. Once FL and MI are counted, she will be the nominee. She's the only one that can beat McCain in November.

If Obama steals this election by not allowing MI and FL to be counted, he'll be just as illegitimate as the psycho-in-chief is. He certainly won't be getting my vote. He either wins legitimately or we can say hi to President McCain because Hillary supporters are NOT going to vote for anyone who endorses disenfranchising voters.

Is Obama really that bad to Hillary supporters? You'd really prefer a continuation of Bush economic and military policies? I will vote for either Democrat, but I prefer Obama. And I honestly think than when people have a few months to mull it over (without the passionate anger of the moment), the vast majority of Hillary supporters will see that Obama is very similar to her on the issues, and vice versa.
I can understand the anger, and I know it goes both ways. But I'm much, much, much more angry at Bush, and therefore McCain for wanting to continue his policies, than I am at either Obama or Clinton. Will you really vote out of spite, rather than what you think is best for the country? Or do you really think McCain is better for the country than Obama?

Jim, you wrote: "...but one person, one vote is honest and fair the electoral college is not..."

Do you know why our founding fathers chose the Electoral College system over a direct popular vote? It's because they feared that the populace could be easily swayed by a smooth talking candidate; AND they wanted to ensure that the small states always have an important role in selecting our president. With a direct popular vote, the 10 largest states could determine the winner, making the votes in the other 40 states irrelevant.

Our founding fathers were absolute geniuses. They could not have foreseen the technology that we have today. With 24-hour news coverage and news instantly broadcast nationwide (worldwide), it would be even easier for the populace to be swayed by a good looking and charismatic candidate.

Florida and Michigan --- That is the big deal!

That is why the status quo isn't bad for Clinton. If it goes to the convention and Obama and the DNC block Michigan and Florida delegations from counting, then the DNC will have a problem in the fall.

You cannot snub two big states like that --- no matter what the DNC 'rules' are.

Obama's campaign is going to implode --- due to Pastor Wright, Rezko, Ayers, Israel-Palestine, reverse racism, Obama's cockiness, Michelle's anger and more. Let's just hope it happens before August so the superdelegates can do what they're supposed to do --- nominate the strongest candidate to beat McCain in November.

As usual another Obama kool-aid drinking supporter that loves to point out Hillary can't win. Well here's news for you - NEITHER CAN OBAMA!!

What happens if all the exist polls in the upcoming primaries show that Obama can't win with white people?

The last time he will have won a primary where white people supported him is Feb. Long before Rev Wright showed up.

If his supporters are primarily young people and African Americans - then the super delegates would not be doing their job to seriously consider who is the most electable candidate against John McCain.

Obama cannot win if he cannot get white people to vote for him.

And before you start pointing to polls - the only polls that matter right now are for the next primaries.

The GE is 7 mos away. go back 7 months ago and McCain wasn't even on the radar screen, the talk was "who can beat Giuliani".

@anne
"If the candidate is Obama, that will be the end of the democratic party. Moderates will go to McCain because he is a moderate"

anne, this is just nonsense. The recent AP Ipsos poll shows the maybe unexpected move from moderate Democrats towards Obama, away from Clinton. He has taken over the lead among these moderates now. Hard to imagine that they will jump from Obama to McCain. So things are still very much in a flux -

except for the hard numbers as we know them today, and these indicate that Hillary has already lost the nomination, regardless of FA and MI counting or not, and regardless of her decision to stay in the race or not.

I can't tell you who is going to be the candidate. No one can. Although the media may want to crown their king, it's not going to happen until the convention. If the candidate is Obama, that will be the end of the democratic party. Moderates will go to McCain because he is a moderate, and Obama will get his AA and young vote. At least that is what I hear in my part of the USA.

Obama's unprecedented Pennsylvania ad buy
Sasha Issenberg April 8, 2008 02:57 PM
PHILADELPHIA -- If, as has been widely predicted, Barack Obama loses Pennsylvania, it will not be for lack of effort.

Obama is currently spending $2.2 million per week on television here, over twice what Hillary Clinton is spending and an unprecedented ad buy in Pennsylvania, according to Democratic media consultant Neil Oxman, who is not working for a candiadte.

"Nobody has ever spent 2.2 million in this state: not Rendell, not Specter, not Casey, not Santorum, not Bush, not Kerry," said Oxman, naming the best-funded candidates to run statewide in recent years. "That's unbelievable."

All this math is confusing and unnecessary. The FACT IS...Obama can't reach 2025 no matter how big he wins in the remaining states.

Hillary has every right to stay in, she picked up 3 superdelegates today in PA.

Obama has nothing to offer but speeches, no substance. His relationships with Rezko, Wright, and Ayers should be explored to the fullest. If Obama is the nominee I'll vote for McCain. That will be a first for me, I've voted as a Democrat for 40 yrs.

From Newsweek:

"Against McCain, Obama lost ground among women — from 57 percent in February to 47 percent in April. Obama dropped 12 points among women under 45, 14 points among suburban women and 15 points among married women.

He also lost nine points or more among voters under 35, high-income households, whites, Catholics, independents, Southerners, people living in the Northeast and those with a high school education or less."

Obama support is starting to fatigue as more people become suspicious of his message. He is losing his support from the most likely voters as the Wright story and other close extremist associations slowly erode his polled-well-last month-but-don't-really-commit votes.

Meanwhile the war waged on Clinton from within the Democratic Party is destroying their only viable candidate. This could change in a day if Edwards endorses Clinton.

Has anyone done the math for Obama? He can't win the nomination either.
It is up to the super delegates. Has Nancy Pelosi checked the rules? Superdelegates vote for WHOMEVER they wish. She's such a stickler for rules,, unless they are not in her favor.
Hillary will win the nomination or else John McCain will be the next president, Barack CANNOT beat McCain.

Hillary Clinton has already proven she can win big in the big electoral rich states that are the must wins for the Dems in November. That's what it most important to a Dem victory in November.

For example, in Ohio, Hillary was outspent by Obama 4 to 1 yet Obama won only 5 out of 88 counties, those with large black voter turnout, the only voting group Obama won. Today, in Ohio polls, Hillary beats McCain by 10 points while Obama ties or loses to McCain. I can assure you Barack Hussein Obama will NEVER carry Ohio in the general election, NEVER. If you cannot win in Ohio you cannot win the Presidency. Same story holds true in states like Florida, Michigan, Penn. and New York.

Obama is unelectable. The Dems are foolish to even consider nominating him. He does not belong on the ticket at all. Obama's caucus wins are meaningless in the general election. Seriously, NO one believes that Utah is in play for the Dems, particularly Obama.

Obama's negatives are rising with the revelations about Antoin Rezko, Ayers & Dorhn, Emil Jones, Crown, Exelon, Odinga of Kenya, Africa (Obama's cousin????) and the scariest of all, Auchi!

ABC should be investigating and reporting on the Obama-Rezko-Auchi connection as well as asking Obama's campaign manager David Axelrod and Obama supporter David Wilhelm (who is named in Rezko's criminal trial underway in Chicago) about their connections to Rezko and Auchi. Auchi is also currently under criminal indictment.

The Odinga - Obama connection is also serious. Jake, could you investigate this????

Why do you think the corporate owned media is relentlessly and shamelessly promoting Barack Hussein Obama (it's his name) 24/7 while attacking Hillary 24/7??? They know he's unelectable.

No amount of media promotion is EVER going to make Obama electable. He would be absolutely CRUSHED in a general election.

*VOTE SMART! VOTE PATRIOTIC! VOTE HILLARY CLINTON FOR PRESIDENT!*

Here is my take on how the race lies at the moment. Obama has basically rode out the Rev Wright storm for now. Unless something else happens to reprovoke that issue he has survived the biggest threat to his candidacy so far. (I would agree incidentally with Gen Powell on this one, Obama handled the issue well, distanced himself from Rev Wright's comments without being disloyal to an important person in his fame.) Consequently his polling numbers are improving. (10% ilead in national polls for the Democratic nomination for what that matters) He has the lead in all categories that matter in this race right now. His opponent is now going through a blip, following Penn's resgination and some other issues. She in my view, has not dealt as well with those issues as Obama has with the Rev Wright issue.

Yes Obama is relying on super delegates, as much as Hillary is, but the logic is that the Super Ds just cannot go against the will of the pledged delegates. I think a lot of the uncommited Super Ds seem to have reached that conclusion from what I hear and read. In the end I think Hillary's only hope of the nomination is some kind of solution in Florida and Michigan, and moving forward from there, but even still its hard to imagine what compromise could give her enough of the delegates in those states.

To the Clintonistas who whine and moan about Florida and Michigan. The truth is that those votes were both flawed. It was widely known that neither state would be granted delegates based on the results of the Primaries, that has to have had an impact on who voted, and whom they voted for.

In the end, right now, as things stand, Hillary Clinton is fighting a losing battle. I think it would take something totally stupendous to change that.

"An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each"

Well, no wonder. The only candidate who the MSM has given a free ride so far is John McCain. It's amazing.

But that'll change when the Dems have a nominee... just wait see McCain drop in the polls from then on.

NO Republican would be able to win the GE this year. 80% of Americans feel that our country is on wrong track, so what they wish for is: yes, CHANGE. One of the 3 remaining candidates refuses to provide just that. It's the Republican.

An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied

I only vote for Hillary!

I think what people are forgetting here is that even thought Hillary Clinton can't catch up on delegates, she can very possibly overtake Obama in the popular vote. Sure, Obama has won significantly more states and delegates, but if Hillary does take the popular vote, THAT is the will of the people. So it doesn't matter if Hillary doesnt reach the 2,025 delegates, because Obama wont reach them either. For the superdelegates to side with Obama because he has more delegates and not win the popular vote would in fact be going against the will of the people. And this doesnt even include the fact that caucuses are not an accurate representation of a state's will of the people. Texas became the poster boy for this when Hillary won the popular vote 51%-47% (a numeric difference of more than 100,000 votes), yet later that evening only a fraction all eligible primary voters returned to the precincts in the evening to participate in the caucus, which Obama won 56%-44%.