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Is Obama McGovern? Are Clinton's Negatives 'All Out There'?
April 24, 2008 9:26 AM
Lanny Davis, the former aide to then-President Bill Clinton, had some mighty nice things to say about fellow Yalie George W. Bush in 2005, calling him "a sincere and kind man and a good friend.'
He has been less charitable in this election cycle when it comes to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.
Davis, a fundraiser for and supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and until this election cycle a critic of "gotcha" politics -- has penned myriad op-eds raising the issue of Rev. Jeremiah Wright.
On the Huffington Post yesterday, Davis penned "The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain."
Some of his "undisputed facts" are both disputed and not facts. Most glaringly, the laughable assertion that "There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania."
(And let's not even discuss Clinton's ad featuring an image of Osama bin Laden. While I'm on an aside, can I just say that however much I enjoy RealClearPolitics, its notion of taking the average of a bunch of polls-- some of them respectable, some of them ridiculous -- is only slightly more scientific than the Di Bruno brothers' sandwich poll?)
But back to this morning's discussion points --
Davis concludes his missive, saying "To all Super Delegates: you decide who is riskier as a general election candidate. The candidate whose negatives, driven by the right-wing hate machine in the 1990s in particular, are all out there and already taken into account. Or a candidate who is still virtually unknown to most of the electorate, with Republicans clearly looking forward to filling in the blanks with the facts about his record of which many general election voters still are not aware."
Republican Rich Lowry of the National Review, who says he's more sympathetic to Clinton than Obama, argues that this is wrong.
"Hillary's negatives aren't 'all out there,'" Lowry writes. 'She's perfectly capable of creating new, damaging ones, as she did with the Bosnia story. Plus, Bill is always a wild card, in terms of what he's going to say, what is going to be revealed about his business dealings, etc."
That said, Lowry agrees that "if you could wipe the slate clean of all that has happened in this nomination race and just pick the most electable candidate, Hillary would be the safest bet for the Democrats: Nominate her (with Obama as the VP) and win Ohio, and the presidency is yours. With Obama, things get more complicated."
At the New Republic, John Judis is also an Obama skeptic, writing that if you "look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia."
The problem with this coalition -- its "ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as 'very liberal.' In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among 'very liberal' voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost 'somewhat conservative' voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative."
Obama's supporters in Pennsylvania were also more secular, like the McGovern coalition. "In the early primaries and caucuses, Obama did very well among the observant," Judis says. "In Maryland, he defeated Clinton among those who attended religious services weekly by 61 to 31 percent. By contrast, in Pennsylvania, he lost to Clinton among these voters by 58 to 42 percent and did best among voters who never attend religious services, winning them by 56 to 44 percent. There is nothing wrong with winning over voters who are very liberal and who never attend religious services; but if they begin to become Obama's most fervent base of support, he will have trouble (to say the least) in November."
- jpt
April 24, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (151)
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crisis08, You are the one making the claim that Hillary is such a fighter...if she is such a fighter she must have accomplished so much for her supporters....I have seen no results...As for Obama's accomplishments I will leave that to the more ardent Obama supporters, a group I am not one of. I am just tired of the Clintons and their arrogance and hypocrisy..
Posted by: indy_voter | Apr 25, 2008 2:50:28 PM
Racism is alive and well in America. There are many good white people who are not racist. However there are still a boatload of old style wanna keep the black man down style whites in America. Disgusting. Just reading this message board qualifies it. Obama is being raked over the coals as expected, but guess what he will still win the nimination. So for those of you that just can't swallow it, thake the words of advisement. Open wild, hold your nose and take it like an adult. Obama is like medicine, Hes good for You. Our only chance for a change in America !!!!
Posted by: alice | Apr 25, 2008 1:58:08 PM
After seeing Obama give Hillary "the finger" on You Tube, I won't vote for him if he is the nominee. He has no class. He is arrogant, cocky, and immature. I'll be writing in Hillary's name in November because I believe she's the best person for the job. She has a lot of flaws, but I trust her on the economy, healthcare, and national security. Obama has nothing in his background that backs up his claim that he will provide "change".
Posted by: goldenstate | Apr 25, 2008 3:31:55 AM
They need to investigate if the money spent to build Mr. Wright's house came from Obama's campaign fund in return to his silence. Who knows maybe Obama built the house for his "UNCLE". Either way, I hope the superdelegates are listening and taking notice that if Obama is the nominee, DEMOCRAT will lose in general election. America would rather vote for another 4 years of Bush administration than being governed by EXTREMIST administration.
Afterall, When I am not bitter, I don't cling into GUNS, RELIGION or ANTIPATHY.
I work hard and that's why I survived all these years. SHAME ON YOU OBAMA!
Posted by: JR, Independent, IN | Apr 25, 2008 1:27:24 AM
if i'm not mistaken, i believe that PA is as of yet the only primary to happen after all of Obama's controversies and negatives poured out.
my question is, if we were to question Obama's supporters of past contests, ask them to vote again, would we see a decline for Obama even amongst his supporters?
i think "buyers remorse" is a real phenomenon after all these controversies. and that doesn't bode well for the fall... at all.
Posted by: J.J. | Apr 24, 2008 9:18:05 PM
So what part of having a job and the economy doing well under Clinton difficult to understand? Does anyone not understand that First Lady Clinton was not President and is and was not responsible for her husbands mistakes or actions. What a bunch of Obama type and cable news type non-sense. Are many of you members of the Obama mafia?
Posted by: Dr Hubert, Lt Col, USAF Retired | Apr 24, 2008 5:52:22 PM
Sen. Barak Obama and the news media want Americans to believe that his 24/7 ads on all networks, newspapers, and all black stations, posted ads 3 to 1 over Sen. Hillary Clinton.
The math does not match what Obama and the news media wants Americans to believe. Just look at one of Obama flyers mailed to potential voters. Then try to convince anyone that anyone other than Obama is truly negative.
Posted by: Dr Hubert, Lt Col, USAF Retired | Apr 24, 2008 5:48:46 PM
@ Rick
I don't see how you got that I am a racist from what I posted. I support Obama. In any case, negatives are negatives whether they apply to an opinion poll about Clinton or Bush. High negatives will hurt her in the general election coming up against a war hero. IMHO she is not electable for this reason and has not run a respectable campaign as McCain has promised to do. He spoke out against the North Carolina ad. She has not.
Polls for PA indicated a 5 to 6 point advantage for Clinton. It was not a tie. Her own campaign figured she'd be ahead by 11 points.
You can read the complete poll in pdf format online. Links don't come up in this blog. Just google 'abc/post' 'poll' '54%' 'pdf'. It will be the second link that comes up on the page.
Posted by: Cindy | Apr 24, 2008 5:38:07 PM
Indy_voter,
Could you mention of Obama's accomplishment?
CBS news once reported both of their acomplishment.
Obama could not press any button, he failed most of them.
Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 24, 2008 5:21:05 PM
Rick, I guess I am racist or woman hater or whatever since I am one of the 54% who have an unfavorable opinion of Hillary. Or maybe I am just an "average white guy" living in the South who is tired of Clinton versions of truth.
Posted by: indy_voter | Apr 24, 2008 5:09:34 PM
crisis08, I am tired of folks calling Hillary a "fighter". The only thing she is fighting for is her own political future. When has she ever fought for something that has not benefitted her politically? When has she ever won one of those "fights". Fighting does not equal accomplishment.
Posted by: indy_voter | Apr 24, 2008 5:05:54 PM
crisis08, I am tired of folks calling Hillary a "fighter". The only thing she is fighting for is her own political future. When has she ever fought for something that has not benefitted her politically? When has she ever won one of those "fights". Fighting does not equal accomplishment.
Posted by: indy_voter | Apr 24, 2008 5:05:46 PM
An ABC/Post poll from 4-16-08 showed that 54% of voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton, up from 40% in January. "No presidential candidate with negatives in the high 40s, let alone in the mid 50s, is going anywhere after an election but home."
Posted by: Cindy | Apr 24, 2008 4:57:55 PM
BB,
She will do anything to win.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
She will work harder and harder even she ran out of money she still won in PA. That's how we see a fighter.
She will fight for working class people and poor people if she becomes
president.
Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 24, 2008 4:33:05 PM
Senator Clinton will do anything to win and she can not be TRUSTED!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: BB | Apr 24, 2008 4:25:40 PM
pp,Calli girl,
well said.
Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 24, 2008 4:23:35 PM
I do genuinely believe that recent history tells is that experienced candidates are just as likely to get shot down as fresh ones (if not more so!) by the GOP attack dogs. Both Gore and Kerry had a long list of positive achievements behind them, far longer many would say than Hillary Clinton's, and both got harsh treatment. Actually I think the best candidates to run against the attack machine are fairly less well known candidates (Bill Clinton in 1992 didn't get nearly as much venom, all things taken into account, as the last 2 democratic party candidates.) (Mathew Dowd wrote about this in some detail on this very website.) And why do you suppose the right wing media, and the GOP attack machine, aren't keeping there powder dry on Obama? Maybe they want Obama out of the picture so they can shoot at Clinton? Surely if he was such a flawed candidate they would be happy to face him and happy to lay off the attacks till he has the nomination.
I feel the comparrison to McGovern, or Dukakis for that matter is a bit harsh in general. Both McGivern and Dukakis were running fairly well at various points in the campaign. McGovern's campaign fell apart with a terrible VP pick, Dukakis led by 18 points coming out of the DNC, I don't think its fair right now to be looking at voting patterns and assuming they are set until november. McCain is getting a free ride right now, what happens when the Democratic attack machine starts really firing at him? What happens if the RNC isn't as united as it might be behind McCain?
Posted by: markymark | Apr 24, 2008 4:21:31 PM
East Coast,
Do you know he just refused to have another debate in Oregon?
Proven that he can not delivered many issues including economy problem on the debate.
So,,it's not ABC's fault.
That's his problem himself, he only agrees to take a debate with his darling media.
Posted by: crisis08 | Apr 24, 2008 4:18:53 PM
Etch,
I don't watch FoxNews, but I do read many sources. Both left, right, and alternative.
However, most of the info about Obama can be found in Chicago newspapers or other local sources.
In past boards, I also posted about Obama taking credit for other people's work or coming into committees asking questions that have already been settled, in an attempt to look like he contributed. That was in the NYT and sourced by Sen Spector and apparently was within the committee transcripts. Spector also points to Hillary as doing such things.
Of course Spector came up with the single bullet theory, and the NYT help to lie us into war, so you can decide for yourself.
Read something beyond his website and there is a lot of information out there on everyone.
Posted by: Cali girl | Apr 24, 2008 3:22:14 PM
Cali girl, has anything you said about Obama in ANY of your ten or so posts here been true?? Where the hell are you getting your "facts"? Fox news??
Posted by: Etch | Apr 24, 2008 3:06:29 PM
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