Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper

« Previous | Main | Next »

Is Obama McGovern? Are Clinton's Negatives 'All Out There'?

April 24, 2008 9:26 AM

Lanny Davis, the former aide to then-President Bill Clinton, had some mighty nice things to say about fellow Yalie George W. Bush in 2005, calling him "a sincere and kind man and a good friend.'

He has been less charitable in this election cycle when it comes to Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.

Davis, a fundraiser for and supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, and until this election cycle a critic of "gotcha" politics -- has penned myriad op-eds raising the issue of Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

On the Huffington Post yesterday, Davis penned "The Top Ten List of Undisputed Facts Showing Barack Obama's Weakness in the General Election Against John McCain."

Some of his "undisputed facts" are both disputed and not facts. Most glaringly, the laughable assertion that "There were no personal attack ads run by Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania."

Hello?

(And let's not even discuss Clinton's ad featuring an image of Osama bin Laden. While I'm on an aside, can I just say that however much I enjoy RealClearPolitics,  its notion of taking the average of a bunch of polls-- some of them respectable, some of them ridiculous -- is only slightly more scientific than the Di Bruno brothers' sandwich poll?)

But back to this morning's discussion points --

Davis concludes his missive, saying "To all Super Delegates: you decide who is riskier as a general election candidate. The candidate whose negatives, driven by the right-wing hate machine in the 1990s in particular, are all out there and already taken into account. Or a candidate who is still virtually unknown to most of the electorate, with Republicans clearly looking forward to filling in the blanks with the facts about his record of which many general election voters still are not aware."

Republican Rich Lowry of the National Review, who says he's more sympathetic to Clinton than Obama, argues that this is wrong.

"Hillary's negatives aren't 'all out there,'" Lowry writes. 'She's perfectly capable of creating new, damaging ones, as she did with the Bosnia story. Plus, Bill is always a wild card, in terms of what he's going to say, what is going to be revealed about his business dealings, etc."

That said, Lowry agrees that "if you could wipe the slate clean of all that has happened in this nomination race and just pick the most electable candidate, Hillary would be the safest bet for the Democrats: Nominate her (with Obama as the VP) and win Ohio, and the presidency is yours. With Obama, things get more complicated."

At the New Republic, John Judis is also an Obama skeptic, writing that if you "look at Obama's vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the '70s and '80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State's Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia."

The problem with this coalition -- its "ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as 'very liberal.' In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among 'very liberal' voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost 'somewhat conservative' voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent. In Wisconsin and Virginia, by contrast, he had done best against Clinton among voters who saw themselves as moderate or somewhat conservative."

Obama's supporters in Pennsylvania were also more secular, like the McGovern coalition. "In the early primaries and caucuses, Obama did very well among the observant," Judis says. "In Maryland, he defeated Clinton among those who attended religious services weekly by 61 to 31 percent. By contrast, in Pennsylvania, he lost to Clinton among these voters by 58 to 42 percent and did best among voters who never attend religious services, winning them by 56 to 44 percent. There is nothing wrong with winning over voters who are very liberal and who never attend religious services; but if they begin to become Obama's most fervent base of support, he will have trouble (to say the least) in November."

- jpt

April 24, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (151)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.


I am a rural, small-town American. I’m not bitter. I don’t carry a gun but I do believe in the Holy Bible and God.

Hillary won in Pennsylvania, despite being outspent by Obama's “mega bucks” and bombardment on TV, radio, internet ads, phone calls, etc., etc., because we believe Hillary to be the better candidate --- pure and simple. True Americans cannot be bought!

Hillary was GREAT in the Pennsylvania debate --- Obama did quite poorly.

OBAMA HAS REFUSED TO DEBATE IN NORTH CAROLINA. He apparently can only read a pretty scripted speech from a teleprompter --- And he wants to run our country??? NO WAY!

Does he plan to have Jeremiah Wright spewing “God Damn America” from the White House? It’s bad enough he did it in a church of God.

Are Obama’s frequent visitors going to be their anti-American, terrorist friends: bomber Ayers, Farrakhan, Rezko, among others?

We need someone to show respect to ALL Americans, regardless of where they live.

GOD BLESS AMERICA --- HILLARY 2008!

Posted by: EASTCOAST | Apr 24, 2008 2:52:43 PM

again,
to make the point for the general election and the person winning the larger states. in the general election the delegates are doled out as winner-take-all, not proportionally as in the primary. if you go back and add the total delegates for each state to the candidate with the most vates in that state(without super delegates) it comes out something like:

hillary 1800+ delegates

bho 1100+ delegates.

so, who will do better in the general election??????????

Posted by: pp | Apr 24, 2008 2:37:18 PM

dl,

The Superdelegates don't want to end this now, as much as you think. They get 'goodies' from the candidates. Obama has spent three times as much as Hillary has on Superdelegates.

So, it isn't in their best interests to come out now, but rather wait until the country has spoken. They have to get re-elected as well, so it would be stupid to come out against Hillary if their district actually votes for.

This ruse that Superdelegates are going to shoot themselves in the foot is being spewed by people who don't understand the process.

Or who are trying to help Obama and his typical campaign tactic of clearing the rolls for himself.

Posted by: Cali girl | Apr 24, 2008 2:35:30 PM

dl,
much of your vitriole is mute as, hard to believe from you and many others, hillary is running, not "the clintons". Most the things you mention are bill's issues. I do know my politics! why don't you try googling the acccomplishments of the clinton years and just see how long the list is.
then, if you to just talk issues, and you choose to lump the "clintons" together, try to come up with even 5 sSIGNIFICANT things bho has down.
You are blinded by your hate for the clintons, and your blind adoration of an empty vessel.

Posted by: pp | Apr 24, 2008 2:32:39 PM

dl,

Obama has been messing with rules all over the country too.

Blame one but not the other...doesn't fly with me.

Hillary has never sued other Democratic candidates completely off of the rolls however.

That is subverting choice and democracy, like it or not.

Posted by: Cali girl | Apr 24, 2008 2:24:11 PM

dl,

As much as you want to pretend they didn't the Clintons tried to implement their campaign promises.

The first hundred days they went into office they went through the govt and took out wasteful duplicate govt programs saving huge amounts of tax dollars. His wife tried to get her health care package through and despite the fact that she couldn't, a lot of people made it clear that they wouldn't help a First Lady make any policy changes. However, they still tried to fix what was clearly broken, the health care industry, last century.

He went through and worked with Republicans on the needed welfare reform and his policies help raise incomes $7000.

Clinton helped stablize Mexico and their peso and helped Russia as well.

Peace and prosperity...it was so horrible...lol

Those are just off the top of my head.


Posted by: Cali girl | Apr 24, 2008 2:20:39 PM

dl

I believe it is the Hunt Commission, of which Geraldine Ferraro was a made a member for some reason, presumably due to her stature. We agree that the unpledged delegates have a right to vote for whomever they wish. My point is that intimidation and threats are counter-productive, and both candidates should be encouraged to take and answer all questions put to them. That way, the unpledged delegates will be better informed. No one need take my advice.

Posted by: Liberal academic | Apr 24, 2008 2:19:51 PM

and pp ...they spent more than that and they did get something...and once they had that that is what they focused on ...the clinton scandals are not, as much as Hillary supporters keep pretending they are, ...they are not all wrapped up with happy endings, answers and bows. In fact very few of them are.

and actually you probably don't even know your caniddate to know what all the scandals are...you might want to find out...

becasue most of America doesn't knowthem either outside of the word "whitewater" something about cattlefutures...and oh yeah that Monica stuff that went on...

that is three in a list of 50, 60?...more... and they deal with a lot of differing shady issues, ethics problems from every corner and more "coincidences" than you have ever seen from 2 people. These are people that have been caught lying from everywhere on the stand to the tv to each other.

They do not have a chance of bringing that back to the whitehouse.

Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 2:18:19 PM

pp "where is the money from"?

You are kidding...you are asking that about Obama...lol did you realize that your candidate is Hillary (and her husband let me fly around the world with some really bad leaders and get them things to have them help me) ...the woman who has not released LAST years tax returns or anything from the Clinton Library...

we hav eno idea what very large strings the Clintons have set up...and the way they are campaigning ...that they have to have this... might just be , don't ya think, that they promised some pretty hefty favors and if they don't win someheads may roll.

Obama donor questions you are funny Hillary person... pshaw.

Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 2:11:59 PM

etch....
bho would be swift boated from"sea to shining sea," if the nominee. but it would not matter since 1/4 or more of hillary supporters will vote mccain instead of bho, anyway.

Posted by: pp | Apr 24, 2008 2:11:37 PM

All of Hillary's baggage are not out there. Obama could run ads about Whitewater, or "I chose not to cook", or her sitting at Walmart meetings during Union bashing, clapping with approval, or Travelgate, or stealing stuff from the WHitehouse on the way out the door, or the pardons-for-money scandal... the list GOES ON.

People know about these things, but Obama graciously has not reminded people of these things. A few ads reliving the mess of the 90s... the losing Congress to Republicans, the IMPEACHMENT trial, the disbarred former president coaching Hillary. There is more and more and more.

If you think Republicans won't run on this stuff, you're crazy. It's one thing to say people are aware of her baggage, but the public has not been reminded of these things lately. Maybe it should...

Posted by: JTS | Apr 24, 2008 2:10:13 PM

Hillary at this point is either

1. just dumb and selfish because there is no way she can win. (and you are right about McCain going after the ad and taking the high road...Hillary will never win)

2.smart and selfish because she wants to trach the party, the country her rivals thinking she will run again in 2012...you know after things get worse with the economy because we will still be in a war and Roe vs. Wade is overturned by McCain...

because as I said you can not name me one time where the Clintons had the choice between doing the right thing for the country and doing the right thing for themselves ...where they chose the country over themselves.

Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 2:08:04 PM

yes, dl, it worries me alot! we are talking known acquantences with terrorists in this country, having them fundraise for you(where is the money from), and even being on your website with your wife as a "friend" of the terrorist!
Starr and his group spent years and 40 million dollars looking for something to get the clintons on. they did not. that is far more investigation in to shadiness then we will ever get about obama, et al.

Posted by: pp | Apr 24, 2008 2:06:35 PM

LA,

I look at all of the candidates equally, and was raised that it was our civic duty to do so without taking into account their party affliation or anything else.

I don't expect to change anyone's view on Obama especially when it is clear they haven't looked into him.

However, there are a lot of people out there who are new to watching this political game. If I can inspire any of them to do research on ALL of the candidates then that is a good thing.

The fact of the matter, even looking into Clinton's scandals of the past can help people decide what is a valid scandal in Obama's background, or Dubya's, or Bush 41, Reagan, etc.

If you actually pay attention and read through boring govt documents, and the odd sentence out of a newspaper, while staying on top of the results, you can start to even predict what will happen despite what is coming out of the candidate's mouths.

When Dubya ran on no nation building, it was clear he was lying when he surrounded himself with PNAC members, that Iraq would be in his crosshairs despite campaign promises. Within a few short weeks he confirmed my prediction and lobbed cruise missles at Saddam telling him that Dubya was coming for him.

You might not understand that type of commitment to watching these people, but like I said it is our civic duty to research and pay attention past what the favorite cable network, or newspaper, or political party, is trying to pass off on Americans.

What you see as 'transparent and disingenuous' is a lifelong, family tradition of taking our civic duty seriously. You should know, I usually hang out in political debate forums and trade ideas with people from all sorts of backgrounds. This is actually the first blog I've posted on that isn't diverse with opinions but mostly focused on one party.

Sorry but I view the spreading information as helping others find a place to start their own research. Not as a way to change someone's mind.

Posted by: Cali girl | Apr 24, 2008 2:04:46 PM

John McCain just pulled a negative campaign ad against Obama because wants to run a "clean" campaign! Can you imagine what happens if Clinton wins the nomination, and in facing McCain she comes off as the negative campaigner, and McCain as the positive campaigner?? We will have democrats abandoning us in droves to join McCain!! McCain is not stupid, and he saw the power of Positive campaigning when its done right by Obama. The clintons can't help but be aggressive and negative, and the result will be that he will "obliterate" her(to quote her recent sickening comments on Iran).

Posted by: Etch | Apr 24, 2008 2:03:58 PM

pp are you concerned with Maggie Williams cleaning Vince Foster's office the day after his suicide ...before nay investigation could happen and it was not her job and the only person who approved of it ..was HIllary.

shall we start there and go down the lists...

If you think we should look into these things shouldn't we hear these from the candidates mouths...because Hillary hasn'tbeen asked a single question about any of those questionable relationships and returned funds and fines and investigations and censures and fund raiser (MrHsu...Mr. paul)...I mean what was she doing with those men...okay they are bad men and she was fined... but what was she doing hanging out with them?

"should we be concerned?"

I personally want to hear more about the issues that are taking food off the table...and issues of our relationship and image in the world as more people are going hungry and with our image becoming more and more of that of an imperialist country... what that is going to do to terrorist numbers?

or how she sees similarities in using an arms race tacticwit Iran (a country that unlike Russia and reagan where they had massive amounts of warheads they could not keep up with...Iran does not have nuclear weapons but there is one sure quick way to help them get them...threaten them with obliteration by nuclear weapons)

but if you would like to focus on the candidates possible "shady dealing" sure...lets start with the ones that we know there already is investigations or fines or lawsuits with...where the candidate was the defense.

Posted by: dl | Apr 24, 2008 1:59:32 PM

to make the point for the general election and the person winning the larger states. in the general election the delegates are doled out as winner-take-all, not proportionally as in the primary. if you go back and add the total delegates for each state to the candidate with the most vates in that state(without super delegates) it comes out something like:

hillary 1800+ delegates

bho 1100+ delegates.

so, who will do better in the general election??????????

Posted by: pp | Apr 24, 2008 1:57:16 PM

Obama's taking a day off. Maybe Mrs. Obama will make him withdraw.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Apr 24, 2008 1:56:22 PM

ABOUT FLORIDA:

THE ONLY DEMOCRAT TO CAMPAIGN THERE ..ALBEIT HE CLAIMS IT WAS "BY ACCIDENT".. WAS OBAMA..


... AND YET.... DESPITE HER 'NEGATIVISM'... HILLARY WON!

GO FIGURE!

Posted by: eyes wide open | Apr 24, 2008 1:55:18 PM

Hillary can't win. Period. Veep is the best solution.

Posted by: It's too late to 'win' | Apr 24, 2008 1:51:04 PM

Post a comment





 

POLITICAL VIDEOS