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Why Can't Obama Win Pennsylvania?*
April 22, 2008 1:55 PM
There's this presumption out there, it seems to me, as if it's just a CRAZY notion that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, would be able to win the Keystone State, like the idea is INSANE, just unfathomable, as if the state consists of Bill, Chelsea, and les freres Rodham.
I don't begrudge the Obama campaign for successfully setting Sen. Clinton's bar so high -- that's its job -- and of course I understand that in order for Clinton to have a real shot, she needs a big W so as to eat away at Obama's 800,000 popular vote lead, and to make the argument to super-Ds that states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida are a problem for him.
Fine, fine.
But what's so crazy about the idea that the Democratic frontrunner -- flush with cash and outspending Clinton 3-to-1, running against a candidate with such high unfavorable ratings -- should be able to win a blue state primary?
Just because Clinton has the support of the governor and the mayors of the two largest cities? So what? This isn't about Ed Rendell.
After Obama swept Wisconsin, doing well if not winning in key traditionally Clinton-backing constituencies -- labor voters, seniors, white women, Jews -- his campaign put forth the notion that he was about to put this thing to bed. But then the dynamics returned to what they had been -- seniors, women, whites, and blue-collar voters for her; educated voters, blacks, young voters and men for him.
Why can't the frontrunner win working class voters?
The Obama campaign may likely spin tonight's outcome as a W for him as long as she doesn't win by 25 points. I, for one, ain't buying it.
- jpt
* If Obama wins Pennsylvania, despite all public polls and predictions by the Clinton and Obama campaigns, I apologize in advance for this posting.
April 22, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (162)
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Here's my nominee for Worst Pennsylvania Primary Result coverage -- MSNBC. Olbermann is actually stammering and sputtering, Russert is demonizing the Clintons, Matthews is cackling at Russert's tirade...
Who won? Even with the 24/7 campaigning by the Obamedia??
Posted by: cappamore | Apr 22, 2008 9:32:15 PM
Jake, you were right and your article make some valid points. How come Obama can't win!
Very hard for his campaign to explain that!
Posted by: Rich_PA | Apr 22, 2008 9:30:05 PM
Barack can't with with all the money in the world, all the media in his favor, all his trashing of Hillary, all the left side of the party supporting him, all the BIG endorsements, etc. and still he CAN'T WIN the big States! To me he is a loser!
Posted by: Mary KY | Apr 22, 2008 9:21:03 PM
"Well we all knew Hillary was going to be the winner ... "
Well, nobody DID know that. That was the premise:
"But what's so crazy about the idea that the Democratic frontrunner -- flush with cash and outspending Clinton 3-to-1, running against a candidate with such high unfavorable ratings -- should be able to win a blue state primary?"
DESPITE spending an obscene amount of money in PA -- no "change" there -- Obama DIDN'T, it seems at this moment, manage to buy the WHOLE primary. This is great: maybe it'll catch on.
Posted by: Belle Starr | Apr 22, 2008 9:15:54 PM
I think it is pretty clear that race is the primary reason... represented by the fact that white women are voting for a white woman... not being critical, but these are the facts... it doesn't help that in Ohio Nafta-gate broke just prior to the primary, and now Wright and cling-gate... so whatever gains he may have made with aggressive campaigning, quickly lost... but the writing is on the wall in my opinion... she can't win... and I wouldn't vote for her... but he will win the "big" states in November...
Posted by: Sanjay | Apr 22, 2008 9:13:48 PM
Well we all knew Hillary was going to be the winner - but will it be double digits?
Posted by: greg | Apr 22, 2008 8:54:04 PM
MSNBC has just declared Hillary the winner!
Rise, Hillary, Rise!'08
Posted by: LeeLee07 | Apr 22, 2008 8:51:50 PM
"stop saying obama has a "800,000" lead in the popular vote. Every time you do you throw 1.7 million people in florida overboard. it is arrogant in the extreme."
If you count Florida Obama's lead is still about 400,000 - check the realclearpolitics site fot that
Posted by: greg | Apr 22, 2008 8:47:51 PM
Fox News has just declared Hillary the winner!
Rise, Hillary, Rise!'08
Posted by: LeeLee07 | Apr 22, 2008 8:47:46 PM
Why can't Hillary win as BIG in PA as she and Rendell said she could?
Posted by: greg | Apr 22, 2008 8:42:36 PM
Five minutes or so ago, Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews were exchanging stricken looks on msnbc, on having to report that the PA primary is "too early" to call, rather than "too close" to call. It was comical, in a horrible way.
Posted by: Belle Starr | Apr 22, 2008 8:39:49 PM
Basically, this is a gender and demographic contest... and frankly, the demographics have always been on Hillary's side. Fortunately, Obama is a stronger candidate for real change.
This is *VERY* good news for Obama and for all Democrats in upcoming years, because the entire Democratic Party will ride higher for longer on the demographics of his supporters. It seems like all she's able to decisively carry are older voters and less educated voters.
Posted by: Mark Kraft | Apr 22, 2008 8:33:58 PM
that is not right
cnn just said the white men voted for the white woman
all the exit polls sofar say it has broke along the line of race.
white women and white men have been voting for hillary.
Posted by: jgaw | Apr 22, 2008 8:25:18 PM
Closed primary. Wisky was an open primary. Obama wins independents handily.
Posted by: Mike | Apr 22, 2008 8:23:52 PM
"Why can't the frontrunner win working class voters?"
CNN's exit polls say that he pretty much just did... with 53% of the male vote compared to 44% for Hillary.
She gets 55% of the female vote, many of them elderly, and gets more of the retired male voters.
So yeah, he *HAS* the working class voter on his side.
Posted by: Mark Kraft | Apr 22, 2008 8:22:48 PM
the clinton machine is broken
the obama machine is rolling right along and donating and trying to buy the best superdelegates his money can get.
I wish people would explain what the clinton machine is?
Posted by: jgaw | Apr 22, 2008 8:21:41 PM
Max, 6 weeks is nothing when you're up against the Clinton machine
Posted by: lisa | Apr 22, 2008 8:17:44 PM
stop saying obama has a "800,000" lead in the popular vote. Every time you do you throw 1.7 million people in florida overboard. it is arrogant in the extreme.
Posted by: john Smart | Apr 22, 2008 8:13:19 PM
sen. clinton has had the deck stack against her on every level
the media has not helped us to examine this obama
so what has happened
the media has been telling us she needs to get out, he is the one.
and we don't know him
so what has happened everytime the voters get a chance to have their say
they keep her in and it gives us a chance to learn him a little more.
and the more we learn about him-the more we know he is not the one.
we need to ignore the pundits and media people and just keep listening to each other we the voters
and we will come out all right.
Posted by: jgaw | Apr 22, 2008 8:09:35 PM
"it's all an excuse for something else, something not attractive."
Yeah, if anybody has RESERVATIONS about a hothouse hustler being elevated waaay beyond his accomplishments, in spite of being pals with mobsters and talking about such elevating topics as "typical white persons" and so on, it must be RACISM, must be about the color of his skin? When you're talking about the U.S. presidency? Horse-pucky.
Maybe, instead, it's something about the "content of his character" that's creeping people out.
Posted by: Belle Starr | Apr 22, 2008 8:05:26 PM
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