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'American Skin' (41 Points) -- Why West Virginia Matters
May 14, 2008 9:27 AM
FROM GUEST-BLOGGER RICK KLEIN:
Hi gang -- Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note, filling in through the end of the week for my colleague Jake Tapper, who is on a much-deserved vacation. (I know, none of us thought he took vacations, either.)
If you're not familiar with The Note, first of all, you should be, and second of all, here's an introduction.
Today we round up where things stand the morning after an Obama drubbing -- a 41-point shellacking in West Virginia. Obama has lost before (though rarely by this much), but what makes this different is that this contest came a week AFTER the mainstream media declared this race over, done, and finished.
Democrats were told for seven solid days that it was just a matter of time before Clinton bowed to the inevitable, and two-thirds of Democratic voters in a swing state just looked at Obama and said thanks, but no thanks.
The pre- and post-contest spin from the Obama campaign has been about the math: That this is too little, too late from Clinton to make a difference in the nominating contest. They're probably right -- the math is quite stubborn, as the ABC political unit points out this morning.
But it seems like leaving the response there ignores the real lessons of West Virginia. Yes, the Clinton brand remains powerful in places like West Virginia in particular -- yet the Obama brand has become a force in its own right. Yes, some voters are racists -- but that doesn't fully explain a 41-point margin.
The fact is that working-class voters (and yes, primarily the white ones) aren't hearing something in what Barack Obama is saying. The campaign can pretend like this isn't a problem, but if it's not a problem now, if will be in the fall. There are signs that, public pronouncements aside, the Obama campaign gets this -- it's one reason Obama is in Michigan today. He may have this locked down, but his hard work is just beginning.
-- Rick Klein
May 14, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (174)
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I feel quite sad for the Democratic party. The leadership is locked in a primary process that has become something of a joke. It is pretty well acknowledged that Obama gamed the primary system, where the delegates awarded in a caucus state, where 20,000 people voted, equaled the delegates awarded in a primary state, where 300,000 people voted. Obama's young voters, with lots of time on their hands, were able to dominate the caucuses to assure large margins for him. Nobody believes that the caucuses are in any way reflective of how people will vote in the general election. Witness Texas, where Hillary won the popular vote, but Obama got more delegates because he won the caucuses. Not only that, many of the big wins were in Red states.
Of course, it goes without saying that Michigan and Florida are fiascos. The fact that the Democratic leadership thought it was OK to exclude them simply says that these people have not got a thimble full of brains between them.
Because the delegate count is not reflective of Democratic voters in the general election, Obama is much weaker than his delegate count would indicate.
So, what we have is a clearly weak candidate in Obama, who is likely to win the nomination and then lose the general election. Not only will he be a weak candidate, but if he happens to win the presidency he will be the most inexperienced president we have ever had. It is scary to think of handing the keys to the government to him and his crowd of inexeperienced academics.
The superdelegates can change this result by handing Hillary the nomination, but they are quite understandibly scared to death of going against the so-called will of the people, as reflected in the elected delegate count. This is so even though the current delegate count does not reflect the will of the people, but reflects a seriously flawed primary process. The SDs may be afraid that if they hand the nomination to Hillary, Black people will, at best, stop voting for Democrats, or at worst riot in Denver. Maybe they are right. Maybe the best thing in the long run is to let Obama have his shot, if nothing else, to mollify the Black vote.
However, the SDs must realize that by catering to the Black vote and the extreme left wing of the Democratic party, they risk alienating a large number of blue collar voters. Bill Clinton, for all of his faults, managed to move the Democratic party to the center, where it has to be in order to win the presidency. Gore and Kerry pulled the party to the left, and lost. Obama is likely to pull the party to the extreme left, and the blue collar votes he loses may abandon the Democractic party for a generation, making it impossible for any Democrat to win the presidency.
Posted by: David H | May 14, 2008 3:00:41 PM
Justme2see: Thank you and I love you too!!!!!!!
Posted by: maggie | May 14, 2008 2:56:19 PM
Can anyone explain to me, how we little people, whom are just common folk voters, can see what is going on here. But intelligent people like the Superdelegates keep crooning Obama, when they know very well that he will not win, without the white vote, the older female vote, the catholic vote and the jewish vote.
Do they really think that the Hillary supporters will go over to Obama in the General Election!
What has Obama and Axelrod promised these superdelegates. It has to be lots and lots of monies!!!! and high positions!!!!
Posted by: darlene | May 14, 2008 2:49:46 PM
maggie....I love it and you too!!!
Posted by: justme2see | May 14, 2008 2:46:56 PM
Obama and McCain are both sitting ducks for a third contender to run straight down the middle, and Hillary Clinton is poised to to be the person who could do it and win. I really hope she takes a shot at. I would rather see her try and fail than languish in the Democratic party.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 2:46:07 PM
The "Messiah" Obama has lost his charm many,many moons ago.
He is now an embarrassment to this country.
His good friend and neighbor William Ayers stomps on the AMerican flag; and now Mr. Obama is wearing an american flag lapel pin, after the photo of his friend Ayers is all over the news station showing this friend of his Ayers, stomping on the American flag.
Good timing Obama, you FAKE!!!!
Posted by: darlene | May 14, 2008 2:44:56 PM
this election counts: First thing she should do is get that B**** Pelosi out. She is so jealous of HIllary, she would do everything in her power to let Hillary look bad.
Hillary should get rid of all the democrates in congress.
Secondly, give Richardson, Kennedy and Obama chauffeur duties driving her around; "Driving Miss Hillary"! Oh! yeah, also "Driving Miss Billy, too"!
Posted by: maggie | May 14, 2008 2:40:43 PM
this election,
This nomination race has demonstrated how dysfunctional the Democratic Party is anyway. I wouldn't worry about them. She is the most competent presidential candidate and she should go as an independent. Better her as an independent than John McCain.
Posted by: Robin | May 14, 2008 2:38:13 PM
the election counts...Oh the Dems would work with her I'm sure. Alot of republicans would work with her also, I think they could get more done with an Independent in office.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 2:37:55 PM
I sure hope the "political genius" of the Clintons is working overtime! Mistakes made in the early part of the campaign have been hurtful to her success. I hope they can salvage this and really make this an historical event!
Posted by: this election counts | May 14, 2008 2:37:37 PM
Alindra...don't slam the small town people of WVA and call them racists. Just because BO wins 95% of black vote and wins big in heavily populated black states...won't get him to the WH. I live in L.A. and would never vote for him, not due to his skin color. Many of the people you slam are the backbone of this country and the determinors of an election.
Posted by: Debra | May 14, 2008 2:35:19 PM
I would like to see HIllary run as an Independant if she does not get the Democratic nomination. However, I would then fear that her effectiveness in the whitehouse would be hampered by a resentful demcratic party.
Posted by: this election counts | May 14, 2008 2:33:23 PM
Obama made the idiotic housing comment about that we are now in a depression because of the housing problems.
He says we have 57 states.
They speak Arabic in Afghanistan
Canada has a president, not a Prime Minister.
Intelligently spoken from Obama's lips!!!
Posted by: maggie | May 14, 2008 2:31:55 PM
Obama is running as a Democrat, he is using the Democratic Party, not because he repects the Party but because it might get him elected. He should really run as a Marxist, his true political affilination. He has fooled far too many Americans and America will pay for being fooled. His resume is vacant of any real political decisions that helped the average American family but it is full of give-aways to irresponsible people. He has no idea how to overcome our problems of jobs and economy.
Posted by: Mia | May 14, 2008 2:31:09 PM
darlene..That why Hillary should run as a Independent, take votes from Obama and McCain and win.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 2:29:32 PM
Has anyone else noticed how the Republicans are getting really aggravated with McCain, because they feel that he is moving too much to the left. I think if McCain continues to move to the middle, he defintely will get alot of the Hillary votes which would cetainly give him a huge edge in the general election. It is not at all oout of reach for McCain to win the nomination per Hillary supporters whom felt they got cheated by not having their candidate as the democratic nominee.
Posted by: darlene | May 14, 2008 2:27:33 PM
Norm...I just wish Rev. Al would pay his taxes.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 2:26:29 PM
HoosierSue...you're right about running McCain down...and they really will when they try to play young guy - old guy. Sorry, it just won't work. I'll be a "McCain Democrat", before EVER voting Obama. I really hope Hillary does not run as his VP, (though I don't see them offering it to her). I can't vote for BO even if Hillary is on the ticket to clean him up.
I am watching my local ABC news here in L.A. and of course, they mention BO's 2 supers he picked up today. NO MENTION OF HILLARY'S ONE. Nothing new there with media coverage...I'll switch to FOX.
Posted by: Debra | May 14, 2008 2:25:47 PM
Robin...I agree with you entirely, if the Obama team (kennedy, kerry, pelosi) gets there way, the goverment would swing to far left. We just had to go thru 8 years of neocon right, I for one would like to see a true Independent President who could preside without a party to answer to.
Posted by: Jim | May 14, 2008 2:22:02 PM
I find it disturbing how "tired" and worn out Obama is from this primary. He is in his 40's! and Hillary is 60 and the energy level is all on her side. He does not appear to have the fight, motivation and passion to give all that is needed to be the President of this country. Especially with the many crisis attacking us on all fronts. This should not be the time for Obama. Eight years from now- maybe.
Posted by: this election counts | May 14, 2008 2:21:28 PM
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