Gallup Analysis: Clinton Has Swing State Advantage

Unfortunately, if Hillary wins the nomination, and wins the Presidency, she will be extremely divisive. Much more so than either McCain or Obama. Less than Bush II. Being a realist, I don't think that Obama is going to solve all the nation's problems. Bill's recent comments have made me reevaluate my view on him and his legacy, which is sad. I finally can see why Republicans hated him. It is still really early for any poll to accurately predict what people will vote this coming November. If you recall, Bush I was extremely popular during Gulf War I, but became extremely unpopular during early 90's recession. Bush II, was obviously popular enough to win 2004 election [caveat: Ohio]. Things change. Hillary is allowed her own degree of puffery but has to be accountable for her own words.

HRC suffers from Chronic
Scatterbrain Disorder.
She's unfit for the job.

rosietheriveter,

how do you feel about sexual harrasement in the work place ?

I recall, early in the campaign season, that Bill Clinton said that if McCain ran against Hillary, it would be an extremely civil contest as they respected each other. Wouldn't that be nice, for a "change?" .... (sigh)

Contrary to wishful thinking, many of Clinton's supporters simply do not see O as qualified. We are all entitled to our opinion. On the other hand, there will certainly be protest votes from women who support Hillary and now feel betrayed by the dem party who will cast a vote for McCain. Ever hear of a women scorned? Hang on to your shorts, O supporters. We've got a movement of our own!

Hotair,

I laugh myself. Thanks.

Lots of people said it, she is the stronger one .
DNC doesn't believe it.
Maybe Pelosi and the gangs think they can train him to become stronger.
What...?? go to the gym?

Questioner, I just don't see Pro-Choice Democratic women voting for Sen. McCain. They certainly won't boycott and not vote since that would mean Sen. McCain will win in the general election. So those women who would be upset that Sen. Clinton didn't win the nomination will still vote for Sen. Obama.

SandyB, I chose to concentrate on the African-American electorate because they are voting 90% plus in favor of Sen. Obama. If 50% of that block does not vote for the Democratic candidate that will likely mean a Democratic defeat in November. However, my analysis does not take into account the possibility that Sen. Clinton would select Sen. Obama to be her running mate. That would change everything. While I am sure that Sen. Obama would be tempted to not accept the VP nomination, there is no way that he would turn it down.

However, while Sen. Obama, should he be the nominee, might consider selecting Sen. Clinton to be his running mate to unite the Democratic Party, I think that is now less likely to happen. I believe Sen. Obama would want to have nothing more to do with the Clintons. Besides, I don't believe Sen. Clinton would accept the offer anyway. She has been number two for too long. (NOTE: I mentioned this over a week ago, Sen. Clinton could offer her support on a promise that should Sen. Obama win the general election that he would make her his first nomination to the Supreme Court, should an opening occur. That would also change everything.)

Now as for the Hispanic vote, while they traditionally vote Democratic, they aren't anywhere near as united behind the Democratic party. Besides, in all likelihood that will not change in this election -- whether the Democratic nominee is Sen. Obama or Sen. Clinton. While they may be voting more for Sen. Clinton in the primaries, they don't appear to have the emotional tie that African-Americans have for Sen. Obama or even women have for Sen. Clinton.

Why is the media only mention HRC wants to change the rule on FL and MI, but not Obama. Both want the delegates to be seated, so they both change the rule (DNC ruled that no FL & MI delegates to be seated at the convention originally). They both agree to seat the delegates. The only disagreement is HOW. Should we just seat the delegates, and skip the results from the primaries? This not only changes the rule, but changes the fundamental of democracy. I assume DNC recognizes this, and comes up with half delegate and half vote. That's very problematic, you can't count people's votes as halves. If I remember correctly, African American used to be counted as 3/7 of a vote during the slavery time. Now, we want to treat people from the 2 states as half citizen? Should we give credit to DNC that they allow these people to be counted as 1/2, a little better than the slaves?

if sen. clinton were the nominee, the aa community would comeback and support her-they were supporting her in the beginning, when they were still asking barack who? because they will see as in the beginning-sen. clinton' understanding of the issues, and how to solve them will help them.
on the other hand the core of sen. clinton' supporters may not be so inclined to go with obama, because so much of what we know of him now, makes him a big question mark as to if he has the real will to do what is needed for the country.
it really is a shame and almost sureal
this man has just about become th dem. party nominee for president, and so many lifelong dems still don't know what obama stands for, and what kind of hope and change he plans to bring.
i think if he is the nominee between july and nov. after really listening (and not drooling and swooning) closely to what he is saying, there will be a lot of disappointed dem. because it will come crystal clear by voting time,
we backed the wrong person.

mr. richard,
i understand what sen. clinton said about the polls, and believe she meant the most recent polls, and not EVERY
poll.-if you are trying to say she meant every poll that has every been taken.

well hank,
i agree with you, it does seem the real goal of the dnc,with the help of the msm' goal was to beat sen. clinton.
i will concede that, and they have succeeded.
but in doing so they have lost the white house and failed to help set the country back on the right track again.
but i do not see how it was such an achievement-obama had the msm, and all the dem bigwigs pulling for him, really not thinking about the average voters but their own gain.
so for me it is not with strength that obama has beaten sen. clinton, but with a lot of help. now sen. clinton having survived this long, with the deck stacked against her, that takes a lot of internal strength and fortitude, and a good ability to keep your own counsel when everyone around you are saying otherwise. and that is what is needed in a president during this time.
everyday obama is proving how inexperienced and possibly ineffective he will be as president, and everyone is willing to over look that or make excuses for it, and HOPE something will CHANGE, and he will become the person he has convienced so many people that he is.
if you will remember everyone was in awe of the powerful karl rove and how well run and orchestrated the bush campaign team was.
a great campaign run for bush, with all of the red flags beginning to show, but the train had left the station, and in the end the american people have suffered.

In Montana Hillary said she is the strongest candidate and "every poll that has been taken" proves it.

Wow! Every poll ever taken, ever? Well if Hillary said it then it just must be the gospel truth.

Mr. Denley:

While I see the point you are making regarding the A-A vote in the general election, it doesn't appear that you have paid attention to the exit polls in the last few primaries, or to the other minority groups who make up a large portion of Democratic voters.

If I remember correctly (and my memory might not be perfect), 70 % of A-A voters in North Carolina (I believe it was)said that they would still vote for Hillary if she were the nominee and not Obama. On the other hand, I believe it was less than 50% of those that have voted for Hillary (women in particular), said they would vote for Obama, should Hillary not be the nominee.

I find it somewhat peculiar that you would look only at the attitude of the African-America Democratic voters and how they would react were Hillary the nominee and not Obama.

From what I have heard in the media and on these blogs, I wholeheartedly believe there is an extremely large percentage of Democratic WOMEN voters who would react just as strongly (if not more so), should Obama be the nominee rather than Hillary.

When you think about it, this has been an extraordinary primary race, with the two top Democratic contenders being members of two different, loyal, Democratic-voting minority groups, women and African-Americans. I think this is why the popular vote differential in this race is probably less than 1% by now, and the delegate race is almost as close. There has never been a primary race like this one: it has indeed been historic.

I personally feel both sides have a viable argument, as both candidates have received nearly half of the votes cast apiece. Granted Obama is ahead in delegates, but there have also been several factors that have figured into this race that did not occur in other election years, i.e., Michigan and Florida (and at this point I really don't care whose fault that was, it is STILL an unusual circumstance); the extra caucuses; the alleged media biases, etc. etc.

Strange too that the Hispanic voting block (also traditionally heavily Democratic for the most part, and who also tend to lean in favor of Hillary), was not mentioned in your post. If I'm not mistaken, Hispanics are now a larger percentage of the U.S. population than African-Americans. Therefore, I believe the DNC and the Super Delegates should also be devoting some of their concern to the potential of alienating this important traditionally Democratic voting group by whom they ultimately select as the candidate.

I just think that the DNC, whatever they decide to do, needs to take into account the feelings and attitudes of ALL Democratic minority voting blocks, and not just the African-Americans.

Hsank:

He hasn't beat her yet!

James Danley | May 28, 2008 10:15:39 PM:

On the other hand,

If B O is given the nomination, more than 50 percent of our Democratics will feel that he won unfairly in an election which was predtermined by a flawed DNC and a a blind-sided, pushy press.

In general, the feminine vote, which includes all ethnicities, obviously is the more perceptive of the Dems, and Will probably turn away from the party and embrace McCain.

Have we forgotten how incredibly STRONG Obama as the nominee will be?

As a young senator he was already able to beat THE WHOLE CLINTON FAMILY in the looong primary race. Their supporters still can't believe it actually happened, nor can the o so powerful establishment family itself.

An incredible achievement and an amazing show of political strength.

Obama is the strongest DEM candidate since Bill Clinton in a presidential race. Plus, he's a MOVEMENT, and a VERY large one.

sen. clinton is the stronger of the two to go up against mccain.
every objective minds knows it.
the dnc with the help of the msm are to blame for this.
and the dnc will be the blame in the fall when the dem. party loses the election.
it was always said the dems have a way of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. so this is no different.

i think it is going to be another four years of upheaval for our country, with either obama or mccain.

people should have gone with the middle sen. clinton.
in the long run she would have been better for our country. black people and all.

I acknowledge that I have not read all of the previous posts. So I don't know if someone has already made the same point that I am about to make.

There is one tremendous flaw in the premise to Jake's question: "Are the Democrats about to nominate their weaker candidate?" That is now an irrelevant question. That's because the dynamics have changed.

If Sen. Clinton is now handed the nomination by the super delegates, most African-Americans will consider her as having stolen the nomination. Or more precisely, the Democrats will have robbed Sen. Obama of the nomination. So there will likely be a very large African-American boycott of the election. While I don't see a large percentage of African-Americans defecting and voting for Sen. McCain, there will probably be some defections. There will also probably be some who will go ahead and vote for Sen. Clinton. But the most likely scenario will be that at least 50% will just not vote for president. It is almost inconceivable that any Democrat can win the White House with at least 50% of the African-American electorate NOT voting for that Democratic candidate. (NOTE: And that doesn't even take into account any non-African-American Democrats who may boycott or defect.)

So even IF Sen. Clinton is technically the stronger of the two candidates, her defeat in the general election may already be sealed.

I believe that the super delegates will do what is best for our country. They would not be afraid to choose the STRONGER candidate - not a puppet like BHO.