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Has Obama's Superdelegate Momentum Slowed?

May 05, 2008 2:19 PM

Karen Travers of ABC News' Political Unit crunched some numbers on my request.

Since March 14, when the Rev. Jeremiah Wright story first hit GMA, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has picked up 62 superdelegates to Sen. Hillary Clinton's net of 20.

Since April 22, when Clinton handily won the Pennsylvania primary, she has netted 12 superdelegates to Obama's 21.

But since Wright appeared at the National Press Club on April 28, she has netted 11 -- and he has gained 17.

- jpt

UPDATE: Inevitably, moments after posting this, the Obama campaign announced two more superdelegates -- so just today he has gained three to Clinton's zero. But the day is still young.

May 5, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (168)

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We are blaming Obama for not counting FL & MI because he said no and he will be held accountable by the voters of those states. He said we'll have to talk about it. The guy is totally inexperienced and couldn't get a bill passed if he tried. He misleads about being against the war and I even hear his pundants say he voted against the war - he was not in the senate at the time and continually votes to finance the war. He's such a fraud. I will not vote for him under any circumstances - at least I know Hillary will come through like she always does. How in God's name does anyone think he can win with his Wright & Ayrs controversy and his non existent experience? Maybe before 9/11 you can win without experience but after Bush's disasters that is over. If Obama wins the nom you may as well congratulate the new Pres McCaine because if me - a staunch liberal is afraid of Obama you can bet the soccer moms will feel the same. My prayers are with Senator Clinton.

Posted by: Siobhan Ogilvie | May 6, 2008 2:58:30 PM

I am stunned at as to where you get your facts from. Barack Obama was once 100 superdelegates behind & now he has closed the gap to a mere 14. Remarkable & all you can report is he's momentum has slowed.
Bias to say the least.
Obama '08

Posted by: Obama backer | May 6, 2008 12:13:18 PM

Al from Al | May 5, 2008 6:10:50 PM
Well said, well said. Glad to see you see the BIG picture. I hope others like Carpenter, Jay, Jayhaw, Lou can see the BIG picture of getting your priorities lined up vs. voting for someone elses priorities because your candidate didn't get to the top of the ticket.
Remember everyone, Senator Clinton and Senator Obama have almost identical voting records on legislation they both voted on over the last two years. So, what you get from one, you're likely to get from the other with some obvious exceptions. But those exceptions may be against your ideal anyway, so stick wtih the Dems, either one. Both should be better than McCain for this next voting cycle.

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 11:59:22 AM

Carpenter,
As a post just before yours pointed out, Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are virtually identical in their views (votes up to the first of March). So, I don't understand why you would say if Obama wins, he sells out America and the Dem party has gone to the radical ultra-left wing side. Clinton would give you the same thing. Well, 95% of the time.
McCain is going to be on the other end of the spectrum. So, I don't understand.

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 11:34:03 AM

Belle, Clinton had a 30% lead after the Texas and Ohio primaries in early March. Three weeks before the Penn primary, Clinton was up 20%. In a matter of those three weeks, with a lot of money (that he got from A LOT of small donors) he was able to bring the deficit to 10% at election time. And pleaes remember, Senator Clinton had the endorsement of EVERY major democrat in the state. The Governor, the State Dem party, the mayors of Philly and Pittsburgh, etc. She had everything going for her and ended up winning impressively. Just not as big as one would think considering all she had going for her into the vote. Sorry, you're wrong on this, please get your numbers right.

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 11:06:07 AM

Oldspice, nice post, but I disagree.
I think that if each vote in the caucus states, like Iowa for example, had the actual votes counted vs. getting just the caucus numbers, the popular vote would be even greater than what it is today for Senator Obama. AND, Senator Clinton would be a lot closer in the delegate count.
By the way for all of my friends who want to count Michigan and Florida, I hope you don't have children for if you do, they have to be spoiled brats. That is, you tell them that if they do something the consequences are...? Then they do it and you decide to NOT show them that you really meant it. Oh, ok. SO next time you tell them the consequences they behave? Right, I don't think so. Come on people.
The votes weren't going to count and EVERYBODY agreed that they wouldn't count, including Senator Clinton. So, you can't go back now and try to change it.

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 10:48:12 AM

Lois, nice post, but I think (opinion only) that you're wrong.
I think not only will African Americans stay at home, I think the new voters inspired by Obama will stay at home as well. For Dems in tight races in their Congressional districts, they can't afford to have those voters stay home. So, in a BIG way, the DNC NEEDS Obama to be on the ticket to keep those voters (to keep their majority in both the house and senate).
By the way, didn't U see two days ago that a Dem in Louisiana was being hit with "association to Obama" vis-a-vis Rev. Wright? Guess what? He won his race in a district that had been in Reps hands since 1974. So, the DNC knows they need Obama to keep them in power.

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 10:41:29 AM

Nick at Nite,
Why would you vote for Clinton over McCain but then vote McCain over Obama?
In other words, if Clinton and Obama espouse the same ideas (votes, which are recorded), why would you vote for McCain who doesn't have the same ideas (same votes)?

Posted by: Roofin Reality | May 6, 2008 10:35:49 AM

For those who don't get the Jay Z comment, well, that just goes to show how little you know about Obama.

For those who say if Hillary gets the nomination you'll vote for Obama on a third party ticket, well, that just goes to show how little you know about our political system.

For those who say that Obama is soon to have 1.5 million internet donors and that he can win the general election without blue collar/women/moderate dem votes, well, that just goes to show how little you know.

Posted by: HoosierSue | May 6, 2008 9:51:17 AM

Angel posted: "Annie" are you trying to imply that Senator Obama can't invest money into his children and their extra curricular activities?

Angel... thank you for proving my point!

Posted by: Annie | May 6, 2008 9:50:14 AM

I'm just trying to get my head around the numbers you've quoted here, Jake.

If you factor in the delegates picked up today, then the margin since April 22 and April 28 is exactly the same. So Obama's momentum is in fact the same as it was last week. And could it be that the delegates who wanted to declare themselves early have already done so (with Obama getting the lion's share), and we're now left with those who will declare themselves later (as in tomorrow or even after all the contests are finished)?

And besides, Obama is still grabbing twice as many delegates as Hillary, so the point of your piece is what exactly? That Obama is still on track to win the nomination? Which would have been a more honest headline.

Posted by: Mark O | May 6, 2008 9:36:00 AM

To Nat some rat jokes
to respond to your slogans :
" The W...House will turn Gray
if OB makes his way
and that for many Dems
will be Doomsday
unless many of them
decide it to be otherwise
go and cast a Wise vote
make it heard "no to the bad joke".
No anger, just Will to say no to Mister Money candidate. Sorry I don't think much of his money supporters.

Posted by: jane | May 6, 2008 7:03:01 AM

"Annie"
are you trying to imply that Senator Obama can't invest money into his children and their extra curricular activities? Whoa! The clintons earned over one hundred and nine million dollars!!!! That is after their White house years, I wonder what kind of priviliges their daugher had? Look, the writing is on the wall people! I will be glad when this is all over so Obama can beat McCain and begin his work in the White House!!!

Posted by: Angel | May 5, 2008 10:18:30 PM

JustMyObservation posts: oh, by the way…Rev. Wright and his body guards are on Hillary’s payroll.

OMG!!! This convinces me that people are not paying any attention to what is going on. Wright would NEVER aid Clinton! This would be against everything he has stated and stood for!!!

SOURCE PLEASE!!!

Posted by: Annie | May 5, 2008 7:05:13 PM

Belle Star writes:
Most of the county committees are full of people for whom "politics" is a social substitute for going to church, and whose political work consists mostly of serving as groupies to elected officials.

Belle... you post well. He is very scary. His brother and cousin scare the crap out of me and should concern everyone in this country... especially Christian church goers. Perhaps his followers don't care if "Christian" people, in Kenya are being burned ALIVE... women and children... burned ALIVE. Who cares, right? After all... Christians are infidel. We are throwing away everything our ancestors fought and died for... our country, our freedom, our choice to worship as we please, our rights, our future... all for the promise of change. Well... it looks like change IS coming! Maybe I should go into the asbestos suit business?

Posted by: Annie | May 5, 2008 6:48:56 PM

Foreign affairs lesson for Gnat:

Obama Gong Show:

7.) Because I lived in Indonesia, I have greater foreign experience and would be stronger on foreign affairs.
Barack Obama lived in Indonesia from when he was 6 until he was 10. At the time, Obama couldn’t even speak the language. Obama has also traveled to a few African and Middle Eastern countries but has no experience with the most of our closest allies.

GONG!!!!!

Maybe Gnat has lived in Indonesia, too.

Posted by: Jayhawk | May 5, 2008 6:47:32 PM

Jayhawk:
Thou are't well informed! Amazing... there ARE people who have the ability to think for them self and actually research the candidates. However... I have noticed that you can post the truth about the "perfect one" and it gets totally ignored. It goes to prove that those who support him don't care WHAT he stands for. From his brother and cousin in Africa... from saying if it came down to it he would go with Islam... from the repeated references to "typical white people"... to voting to keeping it legal to allow living babies to die... to back stabbing his colleagues to get his position... duel citizenship here and Africa... terrorist associations... to him and his wife like the majority of Americans... yep... most of us can afford over $10,000 a year in dance and piano lessons for our kids... and so forth! DUH! I WISH I had that kind of extra money. I would buy gas, pay bills and get groceries! Good thing he isn't related to Pinocchio!!!!

Posted by: Annie | May 5, 2008 6:39:51 PM

Annie writes:
"Thus trying to manipulate and influence the vote of the "gullible" educated masses. Thankfully, many people are catching on."

Hopefully some of the people catching on will go into the lower levels of the Democratic Party. Most of the county committees are full of people for whom "politics" is a social substitute for going to church, and whose political work consists mostly of serving as groupies to elected officials.

Many local committee members are appointed, instead of elected, though the law provides for election.

If county committees were active, we'd have a better class of superdelegates. As it is, the "party" in most places is nothing much, unless it's time for the masses to vote.

Posted by: Belle Starr | May 5, 2008 6:34:43 PM

No difference between HRC and McCain.
Both are wacky loose cannons.

Posted by: anon | May 5, 2008 6:31:43 PM

Yeah! Some of you are "seeing" through the scams and hype. The "convenient" delegates that seem to keep jumping on board, from "no where" to support the "great one" is very much suspect. I believe it has been pointed out that the Obama "campaign" had stock piled delegates. The support had already been pledged but the campaign would chose when to reveal those names... therefore making it appear like these delegates came on board just as Hillary won or made advancements. Thus trying to manipulate and influence the vote of the "gullible" educated masses. Thankfully, many people are catching on. If it sounds too good to be true... it's probably political!

Posted by: Annie | May 5, 2008 6:25:01 PM

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