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Mississippi's Burning: GOP Hits Panic Button
May 14, 2008 11:19 AM
FROM GUEST-BLOGGER RICK KLEIN, FROM ABC'S THE NOTE
The biggest political story of the day may not have had anything to do with the presidential race -- or not much to do with it, in any case. Republicans lost a House seat in one of those districts that's often called "ruby red": The northern Mississippi First Congressional District, which went 62-37 for Bush over Kerry in 2004.
Coming in the aftermath of Democratic wins in a special election for Dennis Hastert's old Illinois seat, and another special in a historically Republican seat in Louisiana, this makes three, which is something we journalists like to label a "trend," a term of art that we use to cover (and over-cover) a story.
One thing that's striking: In the run-up to the 2006 races, GOP leaders often quoted (Democrat) Tip O'Neill in explaining why they wouldn't lose the majority: "All politics is local," they'd say, with the implication that a national "wave" wasn't possible with the right focus on intensely local politics.
They were wrong, of course, and the House fell out of Republican hands for the first time in a dozen years. And now, in a succession of races, the national Republican Party appears to have learned the lesson of a national message -- and has nonetheless failed, rather starkly. In Mississippi, the GOP tried to nationalize the race by linking Democrat Travis Childers with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely presidential standard-bearer Barack Obama; it didn't work, quite obviously.
Whether this is a harbinger or a snapshot, we obviously can't know until November. But Republicans around Washington are nervous, and rightfully so, this morning.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing to come out of the GOP loss (for political junkies, anyway) was the memo put out by Rep. Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, last night.
He does not coat his message with sugar, or anything else even mildly sweet:
"We are disappointed in tonight's election results. Though the NRCC, RNC and Mississippi Republicans made a major effort to retain this seat, we came up short," wrote Cole, R-Okla.
"Tonight's election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November. First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats' task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans."
"Second, the political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. Therefore, Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for. This is something we can do in cooperation with our Presidential nominee, but time is short."
"I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election."
Memos like these are usually spin-soaked affairs, with the losing side explaining why the race has no larger implications, so avert your eyes, thank you very much. Cole takes the opposite apporach. There's internal politics at work here -- Republicans have been buzzing that Cole is on the outs with House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, for weeks now, so he's under pressure to recognize reality and turn things around. And memos like this can gin up the fundraising base, and get House members and donors serious about the fall.
But Republicans are starting to hit the panic button. Cole's memo comes in the wake of an extraordinary magazine piece from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., last week: "The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail," Gingrich wrote. "The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, 'Not the Republicans.' "
One of the few bright spots for the GOP these days is that Sen. John McCain is running strong in head-to-head polls against either Obama or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But his coattails are unlikely to be enough, particularly not if the presidential election is as close as it appears likely to be.
What do you think? Thoughts on how the Republican Party can reinvent its brand in time for November?
-- Rick Klein
May 14, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (31)
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No question.....the Reps have gelded
themselves during the Bush years.
However, the Dems are about to whip-
snake Hillary for an unknown semi-
black (Is he black enough?) candidate
who can't get the white vote where it
counts to assure a Dem victory in Nov.
If he loses, will the Chris Matthews'
and Eugene Robinsons' of this world
try to hound us into our graves for
our lack of "enlightenment"?
Posted by: hombre | May 15, 2008 1:45:56 AM
Don't foll yourselves, folks. Both parties want your vote, but after they are elected, they have their own agenda to follow. In my book there is not much difference between Mccain and the democrats. Odds are there is going to b e a democrat in the white house. They are all making promises that they wouldn't be able to keep. Both parties want to make this country the largest third world nation in the world.
Posted by: howard | May 14, 2008 8:15:37 PM
spock:
Should Hillary lose, I could never see her shoring up B O .
B U T:
You're absolutely right!
Mccain and Hillary WOULD be a dream ticket!
Screw the D N C!
Posted by: egads! | May 14, 2008 5:21:11 PM
I would not be too proud of Childers' win if I was a Democratic official or Obama.
In the last days of his campaign he sent out a campaign mailer accusing his GOP opponent of, basically, sympathizing with the KKK, with a large photo of a hurt and angry black woman with her arms crossed defensively.
Granted, Childers was under siege from the GOP with its Rev. Wright ad, but to win engaged in some of the worst racial politics imaginable in a state known for its dirty racial politics.
The DNC and Obama should run--not walk away--from Childers.
Posted by: Stephen Gianelli | May 14, 2008 5:19:02 PM
The Obama link was perceived as damaging enough for Childers to INSIST that he had never met Obama (April 3Oth)
Posted by: karegi | May 14, 2008 4:47:26 PM
First, the Republicans can reread Eisenhower's speech about the military-industrial complex.
Second, they can read Goldwater's journal (written by his grandson and John Dean).
Third, they can kick out all the neo-cons (which would be almost all of them).
Or, just let the voters take care of 'Third' and call it 'social Darwinism'.
Posted by: Tom J | May 14, 2008 4:29:16 PM
a McCain / Hillary Ticket would be a dream ticket!!
Posted by: spock | May 14, 2008 4:06:44 PM
Micky: What history on Obama are we talking about?
And please compare that with Hillary's history. But before you do that please check out Hillary's history, the media refuses to but I am sure you can find all you want in news stories on the internet. I think you will change your mind about Obama. He looks like an angel compared to Hillary. Believe me, I did it.
Posted by: Becky | May 14, 2008 2:38:08 PM
Hillary has not fought for you in the 35 years of experience she says she has, why do you believe her now?
She has no experience, and she has not fought for you yet, why is it so hard for Hillary people to get that.
Posted by: Becky | May 14, 2008 2:30:44 PM
I know about 100 people around my area and not one will vote for Senator Obama in November and now there is even a drive against our Governor because he is a superdelegaste for Obama. The states voters picked Clinton by 20%. Obama and his far left liberal and socialist agenda has hurt the Democratic Party. We will vote 80 to 20% for McCain if Clinton is not on the ticket. Many of those who voted for Obama in early primaries have changed their minds. If Obama wins, he will ruin America.
Posted by: Grammie | May 14, 2008 2:07:46 PM
texasdemocrat - So True - Vote out incumbants thay have all become elitists!
We say we want someone from outside of Washington, but both parties votein as there Presidential nominees Washington insiders! The Dems An elitist they are going to get and the Republicans have a Dem in Republican clothing!!
We need true Conservatives.
But the interesting part here is how dumb people are even in the weakened state of the economy it is still better then it was in the 90's so what are people really complaining about!! They are followers!!
But to clean out Washington vote out ALL incumbants!! If you really want change!! Vote for an Conservative independent for President not one of the party pics!!
Posted by: spock | May 14, 2008 2:04:39 PM
Obama's white support has been leaking away since February and now is a full blown leak. Unelectable.
Posted by: geevill | May 14, 2008 1:51:32 PM
Gingrich's piece is fascinating. The only problem is that the GOP's goose may already be cooked. And Gingrich might be part of the problem. The right wing brand is what is tainted and becoming more right win will not help. The only reason McCain is doing ok in polls right now is that he is eseen as relatively moderate. In the end the 'C' word maybe as poisonous in 2008 as the 'L' word was in 1988.
Posted by: markymark | May 14, 2008 1:30:47 PM
Looks like a Landslide for Obama in the fall. mc-more-war is too OLD, has an uncontrollable temper, and his wife refuses to release her tax info.. Obama 2008 !
Posted by: pt | May 14, 2008 1:26:34 PM
You think people actually care what Tim Russert thinks? Mwhahahaha.
Posted by: Get real | May 14, 2008 1:17:58 PM
So is CNN..in panic mode...they are now reduced to "announcing" super delegates for Clinton that declared weeks ago and that they had already announced! ROTFLMAO
Todays totals...real one!
Clinton = 1
Obama = 4
Guess that Wolfe is in quite a tizzy since he seems to not have an opinion that matters to anyone but Tim Russert does LOL
Lovin it!
Posted by: Brian | May 14, 2008 1:14:18 PM
Voting patterns are to sweep the houses and then put the other party into the executive branch. It is a hedged bet.
That makes the Democratic run for the White House harder because there is no coat-tail effect in reverse. But really, it is way to early to predict these effects. On the other hand, the numbers are clear that Obama core constituency is eroding.
Posted by: len | May 14, 2008 1:04:56 PM
People watched while the Republicans of both houses stayed in lock step with Bush's policies even when it was clear that most of America were against everything Bush pushed, i.e. war, tax breaks for the rich, big oil, failing in NO, trying to privatize Social Security, allowing more money to be paid out to Advantage Care than to Medicare Doctors, etc. Anyone should be able to see that all these policies the Republicans have pushed have gotten our Nation in VERY bad shape. I would never think about voting for a Republican with such a history.
I'm a Democrat but I can't vote for Obama because of his history and I don't like how the news media and the Democratic partt have tried to push him on us. I hope the Democrats fill both houses with Democrats and then to heck with Obama or McCain.
Posted by: Mickey | May 14, 2008 12:53:02 PM
Talk about chickens coming home to roost!
Congress is worse than dysfunctional and the people know it. Yet no party provides a solution or even hope for better government.
Common sense and integrity as well as the people’s interest have taken a back seat to greed, corruption, pandering and special interests. As food and fuel continue to increase because of government action and inaction the cry for change will grow louder. Lets hope that the change is the right change not the Wright change.
Posted by: Smith | May 14, 2008 12:52:09 PM
The changing seats are interesting. I am of the "throw the bums out" mentality. Normally, I would be inclined to vote against the tide as a check but not this year. I want to throw the bums out and make sure that leadership undergoes fundamental change. The old guard is running us into a hole.
Posted by: Mr. Coffee | May 14, 2008 12:47:25 PM
Childers had to distance himself from obama. He ran ads in the closing days saying he had never met the man to win.
Posted by: toby | May 14, 2008 12:37:47 PM
Both parties seem to be dysfunctional. The best way to improve politics in America is to "vote against" incumbents regardless of party. A few good representatives would lose their job, but all the bad ones would be gone as well. I think I will vote for anyone other than the incumbent this year. Can't be much worse than we have now.
Posted by: texasdemocrat | May 14, 2008 11:44:37 AM
=================================
Wicked good IDEA!
Posted by: HP Boston | May 14, 2008 12:36:15 PM
midwestgirl has it right.
Posted by: You beat me to it | May 14, 2008 12:34:15 PM
They are also on the verge of losing the ONLY GOP seat in NYC which has been in GOP hands for 28 years. The current Congressman Vito Fossella was just arrested for DWI, admitted to having an affair, and having a 3 year old child from that affair. The Democrats were already targeting his seat with weaker opposition but now the pressure is on Democratic electeds to run as Fossella is telling people he will be running for re-election.
Posted by: Bob | May 14, 2008 12:30:08 PM
While I think it is a clear sign that the voters are ready to throw the bums out of congress, they also tend to balance their voting between parties. So I think this may bode well for McCain if voters in these "red" states switch for congressional seats but will balance power by voting McCain. May happen a lot of places, especially where voters are not as enamored with Obama as the media seems to be. Want change, vote dems into congress but put McCain in the WH.
Posted by: midwestgirl | May 14, 2008 12:28:10 PM
I guess that the republicans will finally have to run on something rather than run against someone they call " a tax and spend liberal." After 90 years running this way, it may put them in a coma.
Posted by: The Lord of War | May 14, 2008 12:21:08 PM
This is exactly why the Republicans prefer to run against Obama; they know they'll attract moderate Dems and Independents. They won't be able to do that against Clinton.
Posted by: HoosierSue | May 14, 2008 12:04:25 PM
The bottom line is the economy and a war that isn't making us safer that is costing the economy...now and will continue in the future.
Everything has to be thrwon on this blast hole the republicans have left in the bottom of America's boat.
and to those all who want to say that this doesn't prove the attacks on Obama won't work...
When you got this big of a whole in the bottom of your boat and the republican wants to "stay the course"... and somebody says ...but look at this guy's preacher... I think America might punch that person in the mouth.
lol
Posted by: dl | May 14, 2008 11:59:19 AM
Maybe if the GOP had run a clean campaign, they might have won. The problem is that Republicans still think this is the year 1950 and Americans are dumb as a doorknob. They tried to tie Mr. Childers to Rev. Wright simply because he supports Obama's presidential run. How idiotic was that? Who in their right minds (with an IQ above 70) would have bought that connecion?
Quite simply, the GOP are a bunch of old hate mongering, fear mongering retards. Regardless of who wins this democratic nomination (Barack or Hillary), they will have my vote because the Republicans have got to go!!!!
Posted by: DemocratsUnited | May 14, 2008 11:53:28 AM
There will be no "safe" seats for Repubs. this year. The Bush/GOP had virtually absolute control for almost 8 years and they trashed America like never before. All those Repub. greed heads have got to go.
Posted by: hopesprings52 | May 14, 2008 11:47:59 AM
Both parties seem to be dysfunctional. The best way to improve politics in America is to "vote against" incumbents regardless of party. A few good representatives would lose their job, but all the bad ones would be gone as well. I think I will vote for anyone other than the incumbent this year. Can't be much worse than we have now.
Posted by: texasdemocrat | May 14, 2008 11:44:37 AM
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