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Mississippi's Burning: GOP Hits Panic Button
May 14, 2008 11:19 AM
FROM GUEST-BLOGGER RICK KLEIN, FROM ABC'S THE NOTE
The biggest political story of the day may not have had anything to do with the presidential race -- or not much to do with it, in any case. Republicans lost a House seat in one of those districts that's often called "ruby red": The northern Mississippi First Congressional District, which went 62-37 for Bush over Kerry in 2004.
Coming in the aftermath of Democratic wins in a special election for Dennis Hastert's old Illinois seat, and another special in a historically Republican seat in Louisiana, this makes three, which is something we journalists like to label a "trend," a term of art that we use to cover (and over-cover) a story.
One thing that's striking: In the run-up to the 2006 races, GOP leaders often quoted (Democrat) Tip O'Neill in explaining why they wouldn't lose the majority: "All politics is local," they'd say, with the implication that a national "wave" wasn't possible with the right focus on intensely local politics.
They were wrong, of course, and the House fell out of Republican hands for the first time in a dozen years. And now, in a succession of races, the national Republican Party appears to have learned the lesson of a national message -- and has nonetheless failed, rather starkly. In Mississippi, the GOP tried to nationalize the race by linking Democrat Travis Childers with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and likely presidential standard-bearer Barack Obama; it didn't work, quite obviously.
Whether this is a harbinger or a snapshot, we obviously can't know until November. But Republicans around Washington are nervous, and rightfully so, this morning.
Perhaps the most remarkable thing to come out of the GOP loss (for political junkies, anyway) was the memo put out by Rep. Tom Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, last night.
He does not coat his message with sugar, or anything else even mildly sweet:
"We are disappointed in tonight's election results. Though the NRCC, RNC and Mississippi Republicans made a major effort to retain this seat, we came up short," wrote Cole, R-Okla.
"Tonight's election highlights two significant challenges Republicans must overcome this November. First, Republicans must be prepared to campaign against Democrat challengers who are running as conservatives, even as they try to join a liberal Democrat majority. Though the Democrats' task will be more difficult in a November election, the fact is they have pulled off two special election victories with this strategy, and it should be a concern to all Republicans."
"Second, the political environment is such that voters remain pessimistic about the direction of the country and the Republican Party in general. Therefore, Republicans must undertake bold efforts to define a forward looking agenda that offers the kind of positive change voters are looking for. This is something we can do in cooperation with our Presidential nominee, but time is short."
"I encourage all Republican candidates, whether incumbents or challengers, to take stock of their campaigns and position themselves for challenging campaigns this fall by building the financial resources and grassroots networks that offer them the opportunity and ability to communicate, energize and turn out voters this election."
Memos like these are usually spin-soaked affairs, with the losing side explaining why the race has no larger implications, so avert your eyes, thank you very much. Cole takes the opposite apporach. There's internal politics at work here -- Republicans have been buzzing that Cole is on the outs with House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, for weeks now, so he's under pressure to recognize reality and turn things around. And memos like this can gin up the fundraising base, and get House members and donors serious about the fall.
But Republicans are starting to hit the panic button. Cole's memo comes in the wake of an extraordinary magazine piece from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., last week: "The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail," Gingrich wrote. "The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, 'Not the Republicans.' "
One of the few bright spots for the GOP these days is that Sen. John McCain is running strong in head-to-head polls against either Obama or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. But his coattails are unlikely to be enough, particularly not if the presidential election is as close as it appears likely to be.
What do you think? Thoughts on how the Republican Party can reinvent its brand in time for November?
-- Rick Klein
May 14, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (31)
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Childers had to distance himself from obama. He ran ads in the closing days saying he had never met the man to win.
Posted by: toby | May 14, 2008 12:37:47 PM
Both parties seem to be dysfunctional. The best way to improve politics in America is to "vote against" incumbents regardless of party. A few good representatives would lose their job, but all the bad ones would be gone as well. I think I will vote for anyone other than the incumbent this year. Can't be much worse than we have now.
Posted by: texasdemocrat | May 14, 2008 11:44:37 AM
=================================
Wicked good IDEA!
Posted by: HP Boston | May 14, 2008 12:36:15 PM
midwestgirl has it right.
Posted by: You beat me to it | May 14, 2008 12:34:15 PM
They are also on the verge of losing the ONLY GOP seat in NYC which has been in GOP hands for 28 years. The current Congressman Vito Fossella was just arrested for DWI, admitted to having an affair, and having a 3 year old child from that affair. The Democrats were already targeting his seat with weaker opposition but now the pressure is on Democratic electeds to run as Fossella is telling people he will be running for re-election.
Posted by: Bob | May 14, 2008 12:30:08 PM
While I think it is a clear sign that the voters are ready to throw the bums out of congress, they also tend to balance their voting between parties. So I think this may bode well for McCain if voters in these "red" states switch for congressional seats but will balance power by voting McCain. May happen a lot of places, especially where voters are not as enamored with Obama as the media seems to be. Want change, vote dems into congress but put McCain in the WH.
Posted by: midwestgirl | May 14, 2008 12:28:10 PM
I guess that the republicans will finally have to run on something rather than run against someone they call " a tax and spend liberal." After 90 years running this way, it may put them in a coma.
Posted by: The Lord of War | May 14, 2008 12:21:08 PM
This is exactly why the Republicans prefer to run against Obama; they know they'll attract moderate Dems and Independents. They won't be able to do that against Clinton.
Posted by: HoosierSue | May 14, 2008 12:04:25 PM
The bottom line is the economy and a war that isn't making us safer that is costing the economy...now and will continue in the future.
Everything has to be thrwon on this blast hole the republicans have left in the bottom of America's boat.
and to those all who want to say that this doesn't prove the attacks on Obama won't work...
When you got this big of a whole in the bottom of your boat and the republican wants to "stay the course"... and somebody says ...but look at this guy's preacher... I think America might punch that person in the mouth.
lol
Posted by: dl | May 14, 2008 11:59:19 AM
Maybe if the GOP had run a clean campaign, they might have won. The problem is that Republicans still think this is the year 1950 and Americans are dumb as a doorknob. They tried to tie Mr. Childers to Rev. Wright simply because he supports Obama's presidential run. How idiotic was that? Who in their right minds (with an IQ above 70) would have bought that connecion?
Quite simply, the GOP are a bunch of old hate mongering, fear mongering retards. Regardless of who wins this democratic nomination (Barack or Hillary), they will have my vote because the Republicans have got to go!!!!
Posted by: DemocratsUnited | May 14, 2008 11:53:28 AM
There will be no "safe" seats for Repubs. this year. The Bush/GOP had virtually absolute control for almost 8 years and they trashed America like never before. All those Repub. greed heads have got to go.
Posted by: hopesprings52 | May 14, 2008 11:47:59 AM
Both parties seem to be dysfunctional. The best way to improve politics in America is to "vote against" incumbents regardless of party. A few good representatives would lose their job, but all the bad ones would be gone as well. I think I will vote for anyone other than the incumbent this year. Can't be much worse than we have now.
Posted by: texasdemocrat | May 14, 2008 11:44:37 AM
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