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More on Clinton's Popular Vote Claim

May 21, 2008 12:44 PM

"I’m told that more people have voted for me than for anyone who has ever run for the Democratic nomination," Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said last night after her impressive win in Kentucky.

Point one -- true or not, the claim is somewhat irrelevant. This is not a race for votes, it is a race for delegates. On Bizarro Planet, where popular vote winner Al Gore is finishing up his second term as president, maybe things like delegates and electoral votes don't matter. But here on Earth they do.

Point two -- is it true? The claim is one of the few left in Clinton's argument arsenal aimed at superdelegates -- that she is actually the choice of more voters.

As you may recall, the official Associated Press number (as well as the official ABC News number) is not an accurate representation of the true turnout of voters. However, it is the number provided by states and the Democratic party.

Clinton is trying to make the argument that she is preferred by more voters in this process. Unless she thinks that only 1,677 voters turned out to vote in the January 3 Iowa caucuses -- instead of the 236,000 voters the Democratic party says actually came out to participate -- she cannot rely on the official AP count. The official numbers from caucus states tend to woefully undercount voter turnout for one simple reason -- this is not a race for votes, it is a race for delegates.

So ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer and his team have embarked upon a purely academic exercise to try to assess a number closer to the actual popular vote number.  And they've updated it today, post-Kentucky and post-Oregon. (With 88% of the Oregon vote in.)

It gets tricky of course because of the Michigan and Florida contests, which the DNC does not recognize and where neither candidate campaigned. Should Clinton's popular vote victory in Michigan count? Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot, and Clinton at the time said "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything."

In any case, here are the latest "Gary Langer Popular Vote Numbers."

Total popular vote without Florida and Michigan -- Obama is up 570,785 popular votes. (Obama 17,571,847; Clinton 17,001,062.)

Total popular vote with Florida, but without Michigan -- Obama is up 276,013 popular votes. (Obama 18,148,061; Clinton 17,872,048.)

Total popular vote with both Florida and Michigan -- Clinton is up 52,296 popular votes. (Obama 18,148,061; Clinton 18,200,357.)

Again -- this only has meaning symbolically, or philosophically.

It's a race for delegates.

If Clinton gets the nomination and then goes on to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, there won't be any super-electors to appeal to. You run the race according to the rules. And according to the rules, Obama leads in delegates overall, pledged delegates, superdelegates, and the popular vote. Neither candidate has yet secured the proper number of delegates to win the nomination.

- jpt

May 21, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (281)

User Comments

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Danielle:

That's completely dishonest. Obama taking his name off the ballot in Michigan had NOTHING to do with Iowa.

Obama came off the Michigan ballot - just like Edwards, Dodd and Gravel - because of the pledge that ALL Democratic candidates signed with the DNC and the four approved "early" states in the primary process.

The agreement specifically stated that the candidate signing would not campaign OR PARTICIPATE in any unapproved early primary or caucus. (Yes, Clinton signed it too - and even told NPR New Hampshire's Laura Knoy that "it's clear this primary [Michigan is] having won't count for anything.")

Posted by: BMR, Pittsburgh PA | May 21, 2008 9:16:05 PM

I wonder how many of the above posters would sit down in a poker game without the rules being established and agreed to. If the rules in FL and MI were established and agreed to then all parties to the agreement need to abide by them. You don't changethe rules in the middle of the game.

Posted by: Old Lady from Wyoming | May 21, 2008 8:39:23 PM

Dawn, Obama took his own name off the Michigan ballot to better position himself in Iowa. If you remove yourself from the race why do you think you should still get a prize? There were no rules that he had to remove his name.

Posted by: Danielle | May 21, 2008 8:25:45 PM

Funny how the Obama supporters are always yelling that Obama has the popular vote, but when Hillary says she has it all of a sudden the popular vote doesn't count.

Posted by: Danielle | May 21, 2008 8:24:13 PM

Mike--Pay attention. It's your sputtering, uhhh, hero, uhhh, that's, uhhh, sucking up to Clinton and her supporters. Believe me, he cares if we vote for McCain. He needs Clinton's voters to win. If you don't get that, you know nothing about politics. He'll really need the votes when Wright gets cooking again and Michelle spouts off about some elitist nonsense. The sad part is that Obama will get Clinton's voters because McCain is completely unacceptable though much more sincere than the guy who could "no more denounce Reverend Wright than he could his own grandmother." Give me a break.

Posted by: Ivan Douglas | May 21, 2008 7:28:33 PM

Tim. Valid point. Set game match.

How many people have done man in the street interviews with African Americans if what these Clinton women want to come true, actually happens?

What would Clinton do to regain African American support especially since she told the nation and the world that her base is hard-working white voters. She never came out and refuted that statement. What would she need with anyone except her hard-working white voters?

Posted by: Genna | May 21, 2008 6:37:48 PM

Sen Clinton believes that she is the one standing up for FL and MI voters. She may be unable to admit to herself that she previously said that these votes would not count and said nothing to change this until after the votes would help her. Like the Bosnia story, if Sen Clinton really wishes something was true, she seems to convince herself that it is true. After 8 years of Bush, it would be frightening to elect another individual with such a loose grip on reality.

Posted by: mike | May 21, 2008 6:29:30 PM

Ivan. Nobody would care if you voted for McCain. As a matter a fact. I hope you canvass for him and phonebank as well! Don't want you or need you to win.

Posted by: Mickey Blue | May 21, 2008 6:19:32 PM

I notice the numbers you give don't allocate any Michigan votes to Obama. Obama, Richardson, Edwards and Biden all took their names off of the MI ballot. So does that mean the 238,168 people that voted uncommitted in the MI primary don't count?

I think she should stay in the race but saying she can still win it, spouting lies about the popular vote, and blaming the media and sexism for her loss are damaging unity within the Democratic party.

See RealClearPolitics for popular vote totals.

Posted by: Cindy | May 21, 2008 6:18:38 PM

Obama voters--Get with it. Your mumbling, sputtering uhhh, Messiah has, uhhh, implored you to be nice to Clinton supporters. So he's the nominee. Someone needs to convince us to vote for him. Based on the illiterate, hateful people who blog on his behalf, I'm not too impressed. And you're not very nice either.

Posted by: Ivan Douglas | May 21, 2008 6:07:09 PM

countallthevotes, I agree with you about Hillary and Florida. She's very strong there. If Crist isn't McCain's running mate I still think it will go to McCain although it would be close.

Posted by: lisa | May 21, 2008 5:58:01 PM

THERE IS NO WAY IN HELL THAT HILARY WILL WIN THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION. WHY WOULD ANYBODY WANT A DELUSIONAL, IRRATIONAL, LYING, HILARY IN THE WHITEHOUSE...OH YES, NOW I KNOW, ONE OF HER MAIN SUPPORT GROUPS ARE THE "UNEDUCATED". NOW I UNDERSTAND.

HILARY REFUSES TO ACCEPT REALITY SAME AS GEORGE BUSH AND THE IRAQUE WAR WHICH BY THE WAY HILARY VOTED FOR. HER "SLASH & BURN" CAMPAIGN TACTICS HAVE UNDERMINED HER REMAINING TIME IN CONGRESS AND RUINED WHATEVER POSTIVE LEGACY BILL HAD.

THE BIG BAD BLOND WITCH IS GOING DOWN BIG TIME AND AS HER BID FOR VP, FORGET IT. IN THE WORDS OF THE NY POST, SHES TOAST.

Posted by: BOO-HOO | May 21, 2008 5:56:34 PM

Hillary's tax returns were made public in April 2008. Check your facts.

Posted by: John & Kate | May 21, 2008 5:48:23 PM

JOHN & KATE: WHAT PART OF THE 1990's DIDN'T I LIKE? I didn't like the wages ($5.00 per hour) - try raising 3 kids on $12,000 a year like my husband and I did - all because of NAFTA!!! I also didn't like the lying and flagrant obstruction of justice (Whitewater) and the political job selling (Travelgate), additional obstruction of justice (Filegate) - but most of all, I didn't like Bill Clinton turning the White House into a brothel - which will happen again (a leopard can't change its spots), since I don't see where the Clintons have changed much -- still lying (Bosnia and NAFTA), still job selling (Mark Penn). "Nuff said??"

Posted by: Sharan | May 21, 2008 5:47:16 PM

The following excerpts are from Deroy Murdock' column of March 18, 2008.

America's chief domestic priority this year is to prevent Hillary Rodham Clinton's election as president. Beyond her dreadful ideas, she shares her husband's allergy to the rule of law and the basic standards of fairness and honesty most people expect of them selves. Instead, the Clintons do whatever it takes to accomplish whatever they want. If normal conduct or even federal statutes interfere, they smash right through them.

Hillary turned a $1,000 cattle-futures investment into a $99,540 bovine bonanza in conjunction with Tyson Foods' counsel, James Blair and her REFCO agent, Red Bone. After she collected her 9,954% return on investment, Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton's administration secured Tyson at least $9 million in state loans and special permission to dump chicken waste into local rivers.

As first lady, Hillary concocted her notorious healthcare nationalization scheme with a public/private task force behind closed doors, violating 1972 federal open-meeting laws.

After White House Deputy Counsel Vincent Foster died from a gunshot wound to the head in Fort Marcy Park near Washington in July 1993, his office should have remained sealed for forensic purposes. Yet two day later, "After speaking with the first lady, I arranged for the (Clintons' personal financial records in Fosters office) to be temporary kept in a locked closet in the White House residence," Maggie Williams-Hillary's then-chief of staff and current campaign manager-told the Senate Whitewater Committee on January 26, 1995.

Note: Since Deroy Murdock' column of March 18, 2008 Hilary has released her tax forms and has loaned her campaign over 11 million dollars.

WELL ALL YOU CLINTONITES, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF YOUR HEROS BILL & HIL NOW?

Posted by: BOO-HOO | May 21, 2008 5:46:28 PM

LIsa,

You are so right. If McCain chooses Gov. Crist, there is no way in fell Obama would ever have a shot at that state. However, Hillary does really have solid support in FL. Call it what you want - the senior vote, the Jewish vote, the Litino vote, the moderate vote, she has it, even with Gov. Crist running. With Obama, not a chance!!

Posted by: countallthevotes | May 21, 2008 5:32:33 PM

What part of the 1990's didn't you like the PEACE OR THE PROSPERITY? WE LOVED BOTH! WE LOVED THE GREAT ECONOMY, MADE MONEY, LIVED IN PEACE. WOW. IT WAS GREAT.

Bill Clinton left a SURPLUS, yes, the Democratic President left a huge surplus which Bush has squandered.

Bill Clinton was a great President.

Hillary Clinton will be an even BETTER President.

Posted by: John & Kate | May 21, 2008 5:26:50 PM

Bill Clinton won West Virginia and Kentucky TWICE and Hillary Clinton can win them too. That's the point. Hillary has won and can win the must win states for the Dems in a general election. Obama cannot win.

No Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916! Hillary crushed Obama by 41 points in West Virginia.

Hillary could win Florida. Obama can not.

Last night, Hillary won more than 200,000 MORE votes than Obama. She's crushing him. He's losing support in every voting group.

Hillary is clearly the better candidate. The Dems would be foolish to nominate an unqualified and unelectable candidate.

Posted by: John & Kate | May 21, 2008 5:24:03 PM

Scary Barry and Manic Michelle gonna run '08 OH NOEZ!

Posted by: MoveOnGuys | May 21, 2008 5:22:23 PM

If McCain choses Gov. Crist as his running mate the dems can definately kiss Florida good bye even if Hillary is the nominee. He's extremely popular.

Posted by: lisa | May 21, 2008 5:17:21 PM

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