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Rove's Latest Electoral Maps Have Clinton Stronger Than Obama Against McCain
May 19, 2008 1:48 PM
Electoral maps put together by the consulting firm helmed by Karl Rove, and obtained by ABC News, show Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be a stronger general election candidate in a hypothetical general election match-up against Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., than Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois.
Click HERE to see the maps and charts from Karl Rove & Co., obtained by ABC News.
States are allocated in Rove's exercise based on an average of public polls, which many pollsters would tell you is a rather unscientific way to look at the data.
Still, for political junkies the information is interesting.
In the first map from Karl Rove & Co., McCain leads Obama in a hypothetical match-up, winning states totaling 238 electoral votes to Obama's 221 electoral votes.
There are 538 total electoral votes. At least 270 are needed to win the presidency.
The trend is positive for Obama -- he is up 14 electoral votes from May 11, and McCain is down 13 electoral votes.
The map shows McCain winning Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Wisconsin. States with 79 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, and Virginia -- are toss-ups, within a margin of error of +/- 3 points.
In the hypothetical Clinton-McCain match-up, Clinton leads with 259 electoral votes to McCain's 206 electoral votes.
States totaling 73 electoral votes -- Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, and New Mexico -- too close to call.
Clinton, too, is trending upwards, with a gain of 11 electoral votes since May 11.
The big differences between Clinton and Obama, beyond the her larger number:
Clinton would make competitive some states that Obama would lose -- such as Missouri and New Hampshire -- and she would win others outright, such as Arkansas, Florida, Ohio and West Virginia.
On the other hand, McCain would handily win beat Clinton in some states that Obama made competitive, such as Colorado, North Dakota, and Virginia. Some states that Obama would win, such as Minnesota and Nebraska -- Clinton would lose to McCain.
Occasionally this election cycle the electoral maps of Karl Rove & Co. have reared their heads. In March, McCain adviser Mark McKinnon was spotted holding some of these maps, as reported by Texas Monthly.
- jpt
UPDATE: Clinton referenced this blog post (kinda) in a campaign appearance today.
May 19, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (602)
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Go Hillary, Be Independent and we will back you 100%. Don't let the biased media and Osama's supporters pull you down. Obama will have no chance WHATSOEVER if you are Independent!
Posted by: Christina | May 20, 2008 1:50:58 PM
To All Hillary supporters,
The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee is meeting on May 31 to make a decision about Florida and Michigan. Send a message to the DNC telling them to count the votes and seat Florida and Michigan's delegates.
Please help to spread this message to everyone you know. Thanks
Posted by: Christina | May 20, 2008 1:46:28 PM
David said: Furthermore, the rantings of Rev. Wright are not reflective of Obama's views on anything.
YOU CAN'T BE SERIOUS! OBAMA CHOSE TO ATTEND A BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY CHURCH FOR 20 YEARS, AND CHOSE TO HAVE A VERY CLOSE RELATIONSHIP WITH ITS RACIST AND ANTI-AMERICAN PASTOR. FOR YOUR EDIFICATION, HERE IS A DESCRIPTION OF BLACK LIBERATION THEOLOGY WRITTEN BY ONE OF ITS FOUNDERS, JAMES H. CONE:
“Black theology refuses to accept a God who is not identified totally with the goals of the black community. If God is not for us and against white people, then he is a murderer, and we had better kill him. The task of black theology is to kill Gods who do not belong to the black community … Black theology will accept only the love of God which participates in the destruction of the white enemy. What we need is the divine love as expressed in Black Power, which is the power of black people to destroy their oppressors here and now by any means at their disposal. Unless God is participating in this holy activity, we must reject his love.
DAVID: I'm sure if Hillary Clinton had attended a white racist church which had the same theology as that described above, you would be giving her the same free pass you seem so compelled to give Obama, right?
Posted by: Obvious Guy | May 20, 2008 1:38:15 PM
Either of the Democrats should be able to see off John 'More of the FAILED Same' McCain.
I'm a Blue Dog and I'll be doing whatever I can to make sure that the failed reactionary party of American politics will not win by their usual tricks of smear and fear.
Sen. Obama is a pragmatic progressive, not a radical leftist. Furthermore, the rantings of Rev. Wright are not reflective of Obama's views on anything. Nor can Obama be blamed for receiving unwanted and unsought 'endorsements'.
Given how close the two Democrats are on the issues, there is no reason why supporters of the losing candidate shouldn't support the party's presidential nominee.
Sen. Obama has had the kitchen sink thrown at him in recent weeks and he has responded with grace, candor and dignity.
Posted by: David | May 20, 2008 1:27:19 PM
SHOULD DEMS EVER BELIEVE KARL ROVE?????
Posted by: Marilyn | May 20, 2008 1:18:14 PM
Maybe it is time to split off and form a really viable 3rd party with Hillary Clinton as our candidate. With her solid numbers plus the moderate Republican vote she might put together a coalition similar to Ronald Regan. I for one am really having a hard time supporting the ultra left DNC and the ultra right RNC. We need a REAL 3rd party. Come on people! GO HILLARY!!!
Posted by: NavyHeloMom | May 20, 2008 1:15:14 PM
the Republicans are disappointed that Hillary will not be the nominee. Rove is trying to spin. They know that nothing would have got their dispirated base more motivated that going to the polls to vote against her in the GE. Ha Obama will crush McCain!
Posted by: AndyM | May 20, 2008 12:48:40 PM
SO MANNY OF YOU KEEP FORGETING, HOW MANNY PEOPLE THAT VOTED FOR BHO,HAVE REMORSE AFTER FINDING OUT WHAT HE IS! THAT MEANS THEY WILL NOT VOTE FOR HIM IN THE GE! NO MATTER WHAT,GO HRC OR INDEPENDANT 08
Posted by: RELD1127 | May 20, 2008 12:33:47 PM
Obama has developed a strategy to con Hillary supporters into voting for him using various ploys, including: 1. The "Supreme Court" card, i.e. if Obama doesn't win, McCain will appoint conservative judges. 2. The "Roe v. Wade" card, i.e. if Obama doesn't win, the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade. 3. The "race card,", i.e. if you are against Obama, then you are a racist. 4. The "real Democrat" card, i.e. "real Democrats" will vote for the Democratic nominee whether they like him or not. 5. The "Hillary would want you to vote for Obama" card, which is self-explanatory.
Obama, his supporters, the DNC, the party elite, and the mainstream media have conspired to marginalize the millions of Democrats who have voted for Hillary, and they will now be using every trick in the book to "bring the party together" to further their ruthless ambitions. They will want you to forget all about the months of biased press, the biased party elite, the insults, and the race-cards. They will want you to forget that the Democratic Party now is the party that stands for disenfranchisement and the rationalization of racism. They will use any method to persuade you to vote for the man who they have preordained as the Democratic nominee. DON'T FALL FOR IT!
Whether you write-in Hillary, if possible, vote for John McCain, or sit out the election, remember that your action or inaction could result in the election of the inexperienced, deceptive, ruthless and divisive Obama.
Posted by: James | May 20, 2008 12:28:47 PM
Obama is gonna crush McCain in the general and Rove knows it. The only hope he has is to promote as much as possible a split in the Democratic Party that lingers into November. Which is why we see so many republicans posing as democrats on the internet spewing division and misinformation. Ain't gonna work this time, but hey evil is as evil does so I guess you got to fulfill your nature, right?
PS US Vet: counties with military bases have voted overwhelmingly for Obama. I think yer out of step with your fellow vets.
Posted by: Northern Observer | May 20, 2008 12:08:49 PM
I know one thing and that is Obama is
not going to win in GE. His experience leaves alot to be desired.
Posted by: Melissa | May 20, 2008 12:03:22 PM
McCain may not live until November and most certainly won't receive the convention bounce Obama will see.
Posted by: BS | May 20, 2008 11:32:41 AM
Some seem to think Democrats should believe Karl Rove, really? This is the same guy whose magical maps said the Republicans would hold onto Congress in '06 after he said Bush would be declared victorious over Gore before 10 pm election day (he was just a few months off). This is also Obama's lowest point since he is being attacked by Hillary and the Republicans while the Republicans give Hillary a pass and preconvention general election polls are not to be trusted (ask Dukakis). If I hear another person talk about counting the Michigan straw poll, my head will explode.
Posted by: Really | May 20, 2008 11:29:13 AM
The saddest part about this election is that the media and many in this country got on the emotional Obama wave and it derailed Hillary Clinton, the only real chance we had at retaking the White House. I'm an African American and I don't believe Obama will be elected for one minute! He's inexperienced, has no substance and is too soft. We just gave the nomination back to the Republicans, because when the WHOLE, ENTIRE country gets ready to decide and sees Obama they will see a black man. When they see McCain they will see a white man...Who do you think the country is going to choose?
....food for thought
Posted by: Eric | May 20, 2008 10:58:10 AM
IT IS A FACT she is, not a tactic, reality. Why should we nominate a straw man who will be knocked down. Then, we have only ONE CHOICE.
NO OBAMA.
Posted by: mj | May 20, 2008 10:46:36 AM
IT IS A FACT she is, not a tactic, reality. Why should we nominate a straw man who will be knocked down. Then, we have only ONE CHOICE.
NO OBAMA.
Posted by: mj | May 20, 2008 10:46:29 AM
Hillary leads the popular vote, yet some Democrats call us "delusional" I'm sorry, but aren't you the same folks who bayed at Bush in 00 and 04 about who won the popular vote.
Democrats are supposed to be leaders who respect the rank and file...The Obama folks seem much more content with the party elite...Good luck with that!
Posted by: shawn | May 20, 2008 10:44:19 AM
IT IS A FACT she is, not a tactic, reality. Why should we nominate a straw man who will be knocked down. Then, we have only ONE CHOICE.
NO OBAMA.
Posted by: mj | May 20, 2008 10:20:28 AM
It's pretty sad that the Republicans are pointing out to the nation what the Superdelegates are failing to see! This entire nominating process has been a sham and the media should have kept their noses out of it. We should go back to the days of campaigning on trains and in the back of pickup trucks. The media only gets to report the results after the polls close without 2 weeks of analysis and speculation as to what "might" happen. Let the voters decide who gets to be President.
Posted by: Darla | May 20, 2008 10:19:40 AM
i think the reason sen. clinton is the stronger against mccain is because she is the smarter of the three on the issues.
sen. clinton CAN articulate the difference in how the dem. will take the country in the better direction than mccain and co. obama CANNOT do that.
obama cannot talk without a prepared
speech.
if sen. clinton is not at the top of the dem party ticket,
the only people to blame for whatever a mccain presidency brings are the democratic party leaders.
Posted by: jgaw | May 20, 2008 9:33:49 AM
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