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The Fallacy of Clinton's 1968 Analogy

May 24, 2008 12:21 PM

Lost in the uproar over Sen. Hillary Clinton's invoking of the assassination of Robert Kennedy when explaining why her staying in the race won't hurt party unity is an actual examination of her comparison of the 2008 Democratic primary season to the one from 1968.

Clinton yesterday before the Argus Leader editorial board also invoked her husband's race in 1992. We've already twice now looked at how her reference to how her husband was still campaigning in June 1992 is a disingenuous claim.

All serious competition to Bill Clinton had dropped out in March 1992, and party leaders began rallying around him in April.

Yes, he literally did not secure the nomination until June 1992, but by then it was a foregone conclusion that he would be the nominee. Serious competitors -- Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, then-Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., the late Sen. Paul Tsongas, D-Mass -- had done the math and dropped out.

Moreover, the timeline doesn't square because the first real contest in 1992 was the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 18. (No one competed in Iowa because Harkin was so favored.) This year's contests began on Jan. 3, 2008. Meaning this race started earlier than ever. Bill Clinton competing in June then is more like her competing in April today.

And that makes the 1968 analogy all the more inapt. Because the first contest that year, the New Hampshire primary, was on March 12, 1964.

Meaning, the fact that it was still going on in June then would be like this year's race still going on in March.

But that doesn't even really begin to explain how the 1968 comparison is ludicrous.

*****

Back then, only 13 states even held primaries -- the party bosses in most states controlled the delegates.

That's why it was possible for the 1968 Democratic presidential nominee -- then-Vice President Hubert Humphrey -- to have secured the nomination after having won exactly ZERO primaries.

To recap, then-President Lyndon Johnson won the New Hampshire primary in 1968 with 49 percent of the vote, with then-Sen. Eugene McCarthy, D-Minn, having secured a strong second place finish with 42 percent of the vote.

Then-Sen. Robert Kennedy, D-N.Y., announced his candidacy on March 16. On March 31, Johnson gave his famous address to the nation, announcing, "I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."

But delegates allocated by primary victory were not as important back then.

McCarthy won Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Kennedy won Indiana, Nebraska and South Dakota, and was assassinated on June 5, right after winning the California contest over McCarthy, 46 percent to 42 percent.

Meanwhile, Vice President Humphrey was focused on winning the delegates in states where they were in the pocket of party bosses (which was most of them). Though McCarthy won the Pennsylvania primary, for instance with 72 percent, the man who ran the Democratic Party at the time, Mayor James Tate of Philadelphia, made sure Humphrey – who was not even on the ballot -- got most of the delegates.

What might have been is open to debate, but there are plenty of historians who feel that Humphrey would have secured the nomination in 1968 even if RFK had walked out of the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles that horrible night. He had the institutional control, and the support of people such as Mayor Tate of Philadelphia and Mayor Richard Daley Sr. in Chicago.

As Evan Thomas wrote in “Robert Kennedy: His Life,” RFK aide "Larry O'Brien, a true pragmatist and the most reliable delegate counter, had told Kennedy that winning the nomination would be an uphill struggle. While Kennedy had been getting his cuff links torn off in close primary battles in mostly small states, Humphrey had been methodically lining up delegates in big states like New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Ohio -- enough to secure the nomination, unless Kennedy could somehow shake them free."

(Subsequent reforms to the Democratic primary process put power in the hands of the voters. It should be noted that this led to the disastrous 1972 candidacy of Sen. George McGovern, D-S.D.)

*****

But even beyond the clear inappropriateness of the 1968 timeline analogy is the context in which Clinton was citing it. That is, in a discussion about why the continued primary season would not hurt party unity. Because 1968, after all, was also the year of one of the most divisive and ugly Democratic conventions in history.

And needless to say, the victor that year was the Republican.

Clinton went on in that same editorial board meeting with the Argus Leader to say "I have, perhaps, a long enough memory that many people who finished a rather distant second behind nominees go all the way to the convention. I remember very well 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, where some who had contested in the primaries, you know, were determined to carry their case to the convention."

Let's review: 1980 -- Republican wins; 1984 -- Republican wins; 1988 -- Republican wins; 1992 -- Democrat wins; but doesn't reach 50 percent of the vote and is only victorious, in all likelihood, because of the third-party candidacy of H. Ross Perot.*

*****

As far as the Democratic Party rules go, Clinton has every right to stay in the race as long as she wants.

She is narrowly behind Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, and though the delegate math is strongly against her -- she has to win something like 80 percent of the remaining delegates, while Obama has to win something like 20 percent of them -- there's nothing within the rules that says she has to drop out.

She doesn't even need to concede when and if Obama ever wins the number of delegates required to win the nomination, which currently stands at 2,026 but will likely change in a week after the Democratic National Committee's rules and bylaws committee resolves what to do about Michigan and Florida.

She can take her delegates all the way to the Democratic convention in Denver this August.

She has every right to do so. It might not be what's best for the party, for the party's eventual nominee, and even for herself, ultimately, but she has every right to do so.

That said, history is history, and Sen. Clinton has been rather clumsily using it to justify her continued candidacy, a candidacy that should be able to rise or fall on its own merits.

- jpt

* ABC News Polling Director Gary Langer takes issue with this assertion, saying that 1992 exit poll data inducates that among Perot voters, 38 percent said that if he had not been in the race they'd have voted for then-Gov.Bill Clinton, 37 percent said they'd have voted for then-Presidnt George H.W. Bush, while the rest would have stayed home or voted for someone else. The Democrats worked hard to bolster Perot's candidacy in 1996, however -- insisting that he be included in the debates -- so it seems to me that Clintonistas, at least, might not trust that exit poll data.

May 24, 2008 in Clinton, Hillary | Permalink | Share | User Comments (197)

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Perot never helped Clinton at all in either election. Not only do the 1992 exit polls have Clinton and Bush both getting 38 percent of Perot's vote each without him in the race, it doesn't automatically mean that "Perot helping" was why Clinton wanted him in the debate, if thats even true. If that were true, it was likely to try to undercut perot, and win over his voter so he could win a bigger landslide than he already got.

Posted by: Jay | May 27, 2008 11:28:08 PM

Ag, you wrote: "(Sen. McCain) will honor the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy instead of easing the taxes of the middle class..."

You might want to do your homework instead of blindly believing the Liberal talking points. The 2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts have actually eased the tax burden of the middle class. Not only were the bottom two tax rates of the federal income tax, 15% and 28%, lowered to 10% and 15%, respectively, but the per-child tax credit was doubled to $1,000.

And here is further proof. In 2000 the top 1% of the nations's wage earners accounted for 37% of the total income tax revenue; and the top 5% of the nation's wage earners accounted for 56% of the total income tax revenue. Yet by 2005 -- after the so called "tax cuts for the wealthy" -- the top 1% of the nation's wage earners accounted for 39% of the total income tax revenue; and the top 5% of the nation's wage earners accounted for 60% of the total income tax revenue. That is a 2% and 4% INCREASE, respectively, in their share of the total income tax revenue for those two groups. Incidentally also in 2005, the top 50% of the nation's wage earners accounted for 97% of the total income tax revenue. The lower 50% of the nation's wage earners were "burdened" with just 3% of the total income tax revenue.

Posted by: James Danley | May 27, 2008 3:35:40 PM

It was already covered pretty extensivley in the Butler Report online.

Posted by: Ed Freyer | May 27, 2008 4:18:41 AM

I've never posted on a blog before in my life, but after the comments I've seen here I felt compelled to write. I'll put my bias out front: I am an Obama supporter. More than that, though, I am a Democrat who believes that we must do better.

Part of doing better means understanding the truth. There seem to be three misconceptions among the posters, two minor and one major.

1) Obama and the media are not one, nor are they always united. It was the media that whipped up this RFK frenzy; the Obama camp explicitly said that they, like many of his supporters, assumed the sinister reading of Hillary's remarks were unintended and forgave her. Also, we seem to have forgotten that it was just a few weeks ago that Obama was being skewered by this very same media for Reverend Wright and his "bitter" comments. I didn't notice many Hillary supporters complaining.

2) This bit about Obama "buying" the primary. Yes, Obama outspends Hillary, and yes, this gives him an advantage. However, the money he is spending is not money from lobbyists nor is it money from his own bank account (which is a good deal smaller than either Hillary's or McCain's). Obama's "money-making machine" is nothing more than people who believe in his message. Which brings us to the major misconception.

3) Hillary and McCain are not similar. Hillary and Obama are. Hillary and Obama both believe in ending the war in Iraq, fixing the health care and education systems, and improving the lives of the middle class. Unlike the Democratic candidates, John McCain will leave our troops in Iraq, will do nothing to fix our health care crisis, will honor the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy instead of easing the taxes of the middle class, and will probably appoint conservative Supreme Court judges who will overturn Roe v. Wade. Your call.

Posted by: ag | May 26, 2008 10:29:16 PM

HRC is a sore looser and the GOP are a bunch of idiots with no voice. Just vote Libertarian.

Posted by: Mike | May 26, 2008 9:00:06 PM

It seems someone doesn't LIKE what I have to say considering my "contributions" are being deleted with regularity. (lol)

The fact is "Ed" isn't a Democrat at all. You can tell by the way he posts. He is clearly a professional blogger because ONLY THEY equate being taken to task for saying 2+2=5 with persecution. Well...at least SELLING the idea that it does.

Posted by: Dems | May 26, 2008 8:26:36 PM

All of these middle aged women need to get a life. I agree with one of the other comments about the judges. Do you want Rev. Hagee to be a part of the decision making process in selecting the next two judges? Quoting Obama, "None of us support abortion". Yet, if you chose McCain, that will set back women's rights about 50 years. So, think twice about taking out your sore loser attitude on a candidate who beat Hillary by taking the high road and following the rules. Bill and Hillary like to question all of the those people who want Hillary to get out. "No one asked Ted Kennedy to get out of the race in June ...", they like to say. Well Bill and Hillary, Ted didn't conduct a scorched earth political campaign to tear down the other democratic candidate (angling for a possible run in 2012). How does that bad hair band song from the 80's go, "[Hillary] Don't go away mad, just go away."?

Posted by: SAB | May 26, 2008 5:51:13 PM

HRC is a pathological liar - like her husband before her. She committed the ultimate Freudian slip and no amount of backtracking, vitriol, or media spin can change it.

Clinton lost the nomination because she ran a poorly organized campaign, was out-strategized, and out-funded.

It's time for people to stop making excuses for her deplorable behavior and Orwellian campaign tactics.

Posted by: RKrenke | May 26, 2008 1:09:38 PM

After reading the idiocy and the hatred directed at Hillary Clinton for pointing out the obvious, that Bill Clinton didn't wrap up his nomination until mid-June and that Bobby Kennedy was campaigning in June when he was assassinated, it is no wonder that so many people fell for George W Bush and his "uniter" garbage, or Ronald Reagans baloney that he could cut taxes, raise defense spending, and balance the budget by 1984.

I would love to think that it is just a bunch of otherwise sane folks getting a big head start on Memorial Day drinking, and that come Tuesday we will see folks sobering up and returning to the planet.

We can only hope.

Posted by: Ed Servatius | May 26, 2008 9:00:43 AM

The only way Clinton can win the popular vote is to count Florida and Michigan, two states where she had a brand name, no one campaigned in either state and Obama didn't even have his name on the ballot in Michigan. Believe me they won't count those votes, the delegates will be divided in parts and Obama will still have the deciding delgates. The bottom line is Clinton ran a bad campaign, Obama ran a good campaign, simple as that. The Clinton machine just wasn't what it was hyped to be, period.

Posted by: Stela | May 26, 2008 8:26:04 AM

Imagine picture: convention floor... vote for nominee... after Hillary won popular vote. Now, what all people who chanted in 2000 "every vote count" and "stolen election" could do? Vote Obama and get free pair of flip-flops (compliment of RNC)? Or is Barack angling for VP slot? You know, as a nominee he could loose GE. And after spending budget of small country to get nomination, he would end up as laughing stock. Or he just cannot work as hard as Hillary to get nominated?

Posted by: Mladen | May 26, 2008 7:48:29 AM

What can I say about the Clintons in general, they are a decitful pair or politicians with no regard to class of ethics. All of you blogging on this site saying that you would never vote for Obama probably would not vote for Obama anyway, you are waisting good space. Of the women or men out there that are democrates I would give a little thought to a McCain presidency over Obama by one measure. One possibly two Supreme Court Justices will be picked by the next president. Do you really want more conservative justices on the court to overturn Roe vs Wade or many of the other long faught democratic issues. Think about that possibility before casting your vote.

Posted by: Stela | May 26, 2008 7:08:35 AM

You weren't there in '68 and you're wrong.

Posted by: knoon | May 26, 2008 5:31:58 AM

What I've truly found strange about this whole and continuing election process is the total disregard of what happened back in January, February, and March when the majority of states had their contests and Obama built his lead. Now the race after a see-saw April and May is at pretty much the same place it was two months ago with and here is the big point 3 and only 3 contests remaining. 51 of the 53 (just guessing) contests are done, tallied, and in the books. While the Clinton campaign wants to tell the American people something to the effect of "don't count your chickens before the eggs have hatched," isn't about time that we look and wonder what they possibly expect to happen when there are only three remaining unhatched eggs. I'm not looking to the future or the distant past I'm only looking at this year and thats where the nomination was won and lost.

Posted by: NS | May 26, 2008 2:03:09 AM

Correct thing?? If you believe in your campaign and supporters its the only thing to do, Why dont we ask Kennedy about taking it to the convention in 1980, when he tryed to unseat the incumbent democratic president, i mean no offense to him as he is having health issues, but he tryed to rip apart the democratic party then and is doing so again by backing Obama early in this race... Ego tripping.. fits right in with Obama..

Posted by: Jr | May 26, 2008 1:55:51 AM

Hillary is having a tantrum and her idea
of how a Presidential candidate behaves
is very sad. I have heard people lie before but she takes the cake maybe the
whole bakery. She just can't face the
fact that people don't like her.
Her husband doesn't like her. If he did
he would not use her as a door mat.
She might make a good door mat but not
an adequate President not even close.
Get out and find a corner somewhere and
whine and whine and whine and take that bum with you.

Posted by: Mary Denise | May 26, 2008 1:50:51 AM

Hillary Clinton will do and say anything to get elected. Just yesterday she promised Puerto Rico to amend the US constitution to allow them to vote in US Elections.

She's a phony through and through. She's not a New Yorker. She's not even a democrat.

I cannot wait until she loses her seat in the senate in 2012.

Posted by: Jack | May 26, 2008 1:39:29 AM

Bottom line - Kennedy and Clinton were still in the race in June '92 and '68, a race that had not been decided, and the general elections were in Nov.

So what is the real story here? More whiney pretend journalists trying to incite pressure for Hillary to drop out.

I wonder what these pseudo reporters will be saying after Puerto Rico when Hillary has won the popular vote of all the primarys, even when FL and MI are excluded from the totals.

The headlines will read "Hillary Wins Popular Vote Yet Still Won't Drop Out".

Posted by: Johnny at Work | May 26, 2008 1:02:37 AM

It's absolutely incredible to me how many people have said the same thing, over and over, for the last, oh, about three or four months now. There are slight variations on the theme, but almost to the letter it's some version of "Face it, Hillary. It's over."

There is no reason to get so incensed about the fact that Clinton is staying in the race unless you oppose her and are concerned that she will actually win. To hold her singlehandedly responsible for party division is ridiculous.

I believe that people sensing Obama's weakness want to have a fall guy (in this case, a fall gal) to blame when he loses the general. Then the shrill cries of blame will be that Hillary weakened him and showed the Republicans how to attack him.... Like the Republicans wouldn't have figured that out on their own. And the blamers, as usual, are our friends, the tolerant, inclusive liberals.

Stop blaming Hillary for everything and get on with your lives.

Posted by: Cranky | May 26, 2008 12:23:16 AM

Hmm, De Troyes, are you saying Obama is now "inevitable"?

Posted by: Other Shoe, Other Foot | May 25, 2008 11:54:47 PM

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