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The Holes in Clinton's "Popular Vote" Argument
May 20, 2008 9:58 AM
It's one of Sen. Hillary Clinton's last arguments -- she's ahead in the popular vote, she should be the nominee, even though she has won fewer delegates.
"Right now more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent,” Clinton told Kentuckians recently. “More people have voted for me than for anybody ever running for president before."
One problem with these claims -- they don't appear to be true.
The problem is not Clinton mendacity. The problem is that popular vote tallies are woefully wrong.
The Iowa Democratic Party reported that 236,000 voters turned out for the Iowa caucuses on January 3. So why does the Associated Press tally only record 1,677 votes?
ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer takes a look at this issue, and with his team attempts a good-faith effort to assess what the real popular vote numbers likely were.
Read it HERE.
The bottom line: Sen. Barack Obama likely won the popular vote as well -- even with those disputed contests in Michigan and Florida counting.
Anyone concerned with what the real popular vote tallies were -- and not just bragging rights or talking points -- should check out Langer's analysis.
- jpt
May 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (95)
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"The problem is not Clinton mendacity."
So like an MSM journalist to deny the obvious corruption of his fellow elitists. Even without considering misreporting of the numbers, Clinton and her campaign are well aware that she's only "ahead in the popular vote" if you exclude several caucus states and include both FL and MI with the assumption that 0 citizens of MI favored Obama. Oh yeah, that's really enfranchising them. This blatant hypocrisy of Clinton's is very well known thoughout the informed segment of society, which doesn't include most MSM journalists, nor most of the ignorant yahoos that post in these comment sections.
Posted by: truth machine | May 25, 2008 1:00:24 AM
Obama is not going to be "the first black president"! He is only 1/8 black!! 1/2 White!! The rest Arabic!! This is in his book in his own words!!
"The first black president" is a shameless lie to win votes. His white grandparents are who raised him and sent him to Harvard (paid). He could not legally claim a minority status unless it was available for Arab-american. Which it is not available.
Because his wife is black and he is dark skinned people have jumped all over this black deal. Have any of you seen arab people coloring, eyes, nose, ears, etc? Now if he wants to consider himself black to go into history books, I think the laws would have to be the same for him as say a native american. It requires 43% dna to claim it legally.
Same old politics, same old supporter, same old game. Do what it takes to get votes.
Posted by: drjune | May 21, 2008 4:34:20 PM
The caucuses were outright frauds! We had people who had not voted in the primary, a pre-req to caucus, trying to caucus. Some workers said, "NO" others were letting anyone and everyone caucus. We should not end up up more caucusing than votes cast! But, that was the case. The reason they have not delt with Michigan and Florida is to falsely allow voters to think that Obama is ahead. People by nature want to be on the winning team. The press is a good example of this. Whatever they hear they spin with their own personal views and then spin it to us. Hillary has won 1/2 the country's votes as has Obama. This will have to go to convention to be decided. It is arrogant for Obama to start acting like he is the nominee, but what else is new for this elitest?
Posted by: drjune | May 21, 2008 4:22:10 PM
Obama will be getting sworn in and Hillary will still be giving speeches claiming that it's not over. Her final push will be her insistance that the population of China be seated at the convention.
Posted by: Tom | May 21, 2008 11:31:55 AM
1) Kudos to "Phil" for the reverse math: More people are voting. Period. It's a sign of the times.
2) "Fed up": I'm with you. I can't believe HC can be embraced a "the feminist's" candidate. While she has accomplished great things, she has also bolstered the image of the "loyal wife" who stands by her man because, well, that's what a Wife does. I agree with you: I also want a female president some day -- but I want one who gets there on her own, not because she has to piggy-back on a husband's presidency!
3) It seems okay to point out that Obama's overwhelming support from Af-Am may be dependent upon race, but PC standards dictate that we can only dance around the complementary idea that the bulk of HC's support in states like WV and KY is less a vote for HC and more a vote against the "scary black man."
4) I am so interested in the eduction demographics for this primary; I believe the fact that educated people tend to vote for Obama to be very telling. While I'm not saying they're "bitter," it's a fact that those with smaller visions of the world (by definition, "uneducated") are more easily blinded by empty promises and chameleon-like charades. People with more education tend to look at the broader picture and seek information before making decisions -- not because they are "smarter," or "better" -- because this is the nature of what it means to be educated, which continues as a life-long process (and doesn't switch off at the completion of a degree).
I have voted as an Independent for many years because, although my ideals have often been allied with the Democratic Party, I have not been able to stomach the blatant "junkfood" pandering to the masses. Obama represents my first encounter with a candidate who is willing to bypass this apparently effective strategy. Every time he risks arguing against a gas tax "holiday," or reminds us that America should change its gluttonous ways, I am reassured that, despite his role as a politician, he is a man of conviction, judgement and, overall (and in starkest contrast), integrity.
Posted by: anomoly | May 21, 2008 9:21:58 AM
Senator Obama and his far left politics have hurt the Democratic Party. Many are registering as independents and will vote for Senator McCain. Senator Obama got his start in politics with the help of corrupt people and has not changed. He will say and do anything to get his socialist and terrorist supporters a voice in our government. Wake up America or we are doomed.
Posted by: NO NO O DAMA | May 21, 2008 12:21:40 AM
If the main stream media could be charged with conspiracy, the charges would surely stick. Major outlets have praised and propped up Senator Obama and refused tell the truth about his corrupt politics. He is as guilty as Tony Rezko who is in jail awaiting the verdict of 23 charges. The FBI mole who worked this case for two years stated that when Rezko called, Obama came running. They were bedfellows in this whole corruption case.
Posted by: Mary | May 21, 2008 12:08:26 AM
After reading all the facts of the Obama/Rezko connection, I believe Senator Obama should be in jail with Rezko, not on the ballot.
REZKO WATCH----Curtain Time for Obama, Part 1 thr 5. Read it. Senator Obama is up to his neck in corruption.
Posted by: Mary | May 20, 2008 11:37:10 PM
The holes of democracy in America:
Comparison of Texas primary and caucas results
Texa Primary
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Clinton 1,459,814 51% 65
Obama 1,358,785 47% 61
4 points win to Clinton
A win of 4 pledged delegates for Clinton
Texa Caucus
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Obama 23,918 56% 38
Clinton 18,620 44% 29
12 points loss to Clinton
A loss of 11 pledged delegates for Clinton
Comparison of Washington Caucus and Primary:
Washington Caucus
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Obama 21,629 68% 59
Clinton 9,992 31% 31
37 points win of Obama
Washington Primary
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Obama 339,166 51%
Clinton 303,151 46%
6 points win of Obama
Comparison of Alaska and Virginia
Alaska
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Obama 6,674 75% 9
Clinton 2,194 25% 4
A win of 4480 votes
A win of 5 pledged delegates
West Virginia
Candidate Votes Vote % P.Deleg
Clinton 239,298 67% 20
Obama 91,747 26% 8
A win of 147551 votes
A win of 12 pledged delegates
America is just like the animal farm in George Orwell.
All votes are equal: just some votes are more equal than the others.
Posted by: John_Lai | May 20, 2008 9:03:30 PM
it's posted everywhere:
Needed to Win: 2,026 - if you don't count MI and FL and a lot more (2209?) if you do count them.
the falacy the media put in your (and others) mind is that you can add the superdelegates to the pledged delegates.
that 'math' they've been screeming about is FRAUD. not math but FRAUD. they are doing that in order to supress the vote and interfere in the democratic process.
you cannot add superdelegates to pledged delegates for the simple reason that the supers are not allowed to pledge and are not allowed to vote until the convention.
actually, some of the superdeleagetes from hillary's camp have changed their position and moved to obama's camp.. they can keep doing that until they actually VOTE.
in fact, even the pledged delegates are still fighting it out as we speak here.. there are meetings all over the country. so, the process is pretty simple: you get to the total necessary to win or you don't.
if you don't get to the winning number, the process changes dramatically:
both candidates make their case to the delegates at the convention.
that is no different than campaigning in any other state - you can call this state - the delegate state.
and then ALL delegates are up for grabs and the best wins.
see how they are trying to force a woman out?
by committing FRAUD on the american people.
Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 6:48:19 PM
If the rules are the rules, she can't have enough votes, neither does he, except that he has more. They just don't want this to go the convention, for they fear the superdelegates may have a different argument, because the point for her is to go all the way through, and with all the votes in the next contests, so she can prove or be proved what ever the ultimate outcome is. This seems right.
Except that BO and his supporters don't want to take any chance!
Posted by: jane | May 20, 2008 6:07:37 PM
Joe,
What is the winning number in your mind?
Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 5:11:48 PM
ooh.. so now you know how clinton made the money for the country huh..
i see why you believe in obama's change..it sounds like you think you can make money for the country too :))
Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 4:50:10 PM
duuuuuurrrrrr....
Clinton was just President when everyone purchased a computer. The business' brang it to the table and fed the country, Clinton turned around and freed everyone to go elsewhere.
Posted by: yoyo's | May 20, 2008 4:47:03 PM
i just responded to your question about the numbers.
now you are opening another one, about the process:
yes, FL and MI will go through the democratic process - that's why the rules committee will meet at the end of the month.
and if they don't resolve that, FL and MI will fight it at the convention as well.
but you are missing my point altogether:
with or without FL and MI, obama cannot reach the winning number.
hence, the convention.
Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 4:43:57 PM
Joe,
I looked at the numbers as you suggested.
You convenienlty looked at the column that counts Florida and Michigan. So let me see if understand correctly. You have gone on and on about the process and how we have to follow the rules of the process, i.e. continuing the voting and allowing the primary to go to the end. Yet, you are more than happy to throw the very rules of the primary you defend out the window if it gives Clinton the lead. Interesting concept you have there.
Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 4:37:10 PM
Ok Joe,
Does that mean that Hillary is also pulling a fraud with her method of counting the popular vote and manipulating the numbers?
Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 4:24:43 PM
agree to disagree on what?
i've been telling you: it doesn't matter what you and i want or think.
there is a DEMOCRATIC PROCESS in place and both obama and hillary will HAVE TO follow it.
there is no other way at this point but for them to make their case in front of everyone on the convention floor.
all this nonsense with obama being ahead.. all that is meant to accomplish is to scare people away, to stop them from voting.
i hope that you agree with me that the practice is simply FRAUD.
Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 4:18:50 PM
Yo yo,
Who's policies are they? I understand and agree with you that Congress and the local level of government are important. I just don't agree that the President has no impact. In the case of Iraq, the President proposed going to war and Congress agreed. Both were important in that decision.
Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 4:17:27 PM
Below Average Joe,
We will just have to agree to disagree. I am not even sure what you were trying to say in that last post.
Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 4:13:58 PM
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