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The Holes in Clinton's "Popular Vote" Argument

May 20, 2008 9:58 AM

It's one of Sen. Hillary Clinton's last arguments -- she's ahead in the popular vote, she should be the nominee, even though she has won fewer delegates.

"Right now more people have voted for me than have voted for my opponent,” Clinton told Kentuckians recently. “More people have voted for me than for anybody ever running for president before."

One problem with these claims -- they don't appear to be true.

The problem is not Clinton mendacity. The problem is that popular vote tallies are woefully wrong.

The Iowa Democratic Party reported that 236,000 voters turned out for the Iowa caucuses on January 3. So why does the Associated Press tally only record 1,677 votes?

ABC News' Polling Director Gary Langer takes a look at this issue, and with his team attempts a good-faith effort to assess what the real popular vote numbers likely were.

Read it HERE.

The bottom line: Sen. Barack Obama likely won the popular vote as well -- even with those disputed contests in Michigan and Florida counting.

Anyone concerned with what the real popular vote tallies were -- and not just bragging rights or talking points -- should check out Langer's analysis.

- jpt

May 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (95)

User Comments

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btw, whether you accept that obama cannot reach the winning number or not is irrelevant.
you just are wasting time!
this process ends at the convention.
that is the way the democrats and the DNC designed it and that is the right and fair course for both parties.
no matter how much people inflate the obama numbers - they still fall short.
pitty huh?
:))

Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 3:47:01 PM

Unfortunetly, her fuzzy math on the popular vote is much too much like her fuzzy memories of Bosnia.

Hillary has a bad habit of bending the facts to suit her motives.

If anyone else but Hillary were in her position right now, the pol and the media would have drummed her out of the race by now, but b/c she is Hillary, they are handling her with kid gloves and allowing her to remain.

The sad thing is that there is a tipping point beyond which her remaining in the race goes from looking like a stalwart warrior, to a sad figure who fails to grasp the reality of her situation..."Mr. DeMille, I'm ready for my close-up..."

Posted by: Suzanne | May 20, 2008 3:35:27 PM

Joe,
Average Joe,
I never said that the voting should not continue. I just don't except the math, there is no way she can win.
As far as racism, to paraphrase, if the hood fits........

Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 3:28:38 PM

yeah..sure.. everything that you don't like just call it 'racist' and you can get away with it..sounds like a baby who can't get his toy and start crying..

if you are so fair minded why do you have a problem with letting democracy run its course?

why do you not like to let people VOTE?

Posted by: Average Joe | May 20, 2008 3:19:24 PM

Yo yo, do you mean being blinded by all of the things going on in the world, many of which are direct results of the current President's policies? This would be a President that is of no consequence according to your reasoning.

Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 3:19:12 PM

You all worry to much! The president can't do crap anyhow without the backing of congress, so just quit the bickering. It doesn't matter who's president. What matters is that the nation is being blinded by this election and forgot what is really going on in the world. Any pres will do.....what we have to do is press the congress and senate and local offices to do the right thing. President.....c'mon peeps

Posted by: yoyo's | May 20, 2008 2:59:24 PM

"how stupid can you be? hard to count huh?" Well put, if you are asking yourself a question.

Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 2:43:17 PM

Notme:

educate yourself, go to his website, all the information is there, research him for yourself. Then and only then can you reach an informed opinion. If you like what you see, cool. If not, don't vote for him. It's America. Just equip yourself with the ideals and the policies of both Obama and McCain before you take sides.

Posted by: Really? | May 20, 2008 1:45:29 PM

Average Joe. You sound a little confused so I'm going to help you and all of the other people who don't seem to get it. The remaining states that still have to vote don't hold enough delegates to help Senator Clinton. Think of it this way - Let's say 50 is the magic number. If he has 40 and she has 10 and the remaining states will only total 3 more delegates. Now regardless of who wins those 3 delegates after those last states vote, neither will have reached 50. Now, let's give Clinton the 3. She still looses by 7 points. DO YOU UNDERSTAND? This is why some are saying she should get out. It's not about sexism. It's about incompetency. An ill run campagin and the "all things to all people" crap that makes me dislike her and I'm a woman. She does not speak for me. Further, I think she is making women look irrational and crazy. Is this how we accept bad new? Disbelief? That's not leadership!

Posted by: roxanne | May 20, 2008 1:38:23 PM

Average Joe. You sound a little confused so I'm going to help you and all of the other people who don't seem to get it. The remaining states that still have to vote don't hold enough delegates to help Senator Clinton. Think of it this way - Let's say 50 is the magic number. If he has 40 and she has 10 and the remaining states will only total 3 more delegates. Now regardless of who wins those 3 delegates after those last states vote, neither will have reached 50. Now, let's give Clinton the 3. She still looses by 7 points. DO YOU UNDERSTAND? This is why some are saying she should get out. It's not about sexism. It's about incompetency. An ill run campagin and the "all things to all people" crap that makes me dislike her and I'm a woman. She does not speak for me. Further, I think she is making women look irrational and crazy. Is this how we accept bad new? Disbelief? That's not leadership!

Posted by: roxanne | May 20, 2008 1:38:21 PM

Looks like the n.e.g.r.o. is going to win this election. Sure hope he knows what he's doing. Don't know though since he has really given us any 'plans'. All we get are talking points. He got an economy that has tanked and a war that seems to drag on and on.

Posted by: Notme | May 20, 2008 1:36:22 PM

BIG SURPRISE!

Another lie from the Clinton's on the math...

How can we have a president that can't count correctly, can manage her campaign money, lies about everything, is broke and basically is delusional???

Doesn't sound like who I want for my next president! How can somebody fix the economy that can't count??

If Hillary did find some way to get into power, later she would probably lie and "say" the economy was great, until we got the video that is!!!

Posted by: Davis | May 20, 2008 1:26:36 PM

Please don't call HRC a girl or call her names in general. She may not be my candidate, but she deserves respect.

Posted by: Really? | May 20, 2008 1:25:34 PM

Mary - The press has done their jobs. They reported the FACT that Obama was extensively investigated, and the authorities could find absolutely no wrong doing on his part. That is why he is not on trial.

This is old news, Mary. Also, you are quoting a blog and not a reputable news organization to bolster your argument. Please, anyone that throw out an accusation. Anyone.

Posted by: Texas Voter | May 20, 2008 1:25:05 PM

To Anne and Average Joe;

What are you talking about? Any facts to back up your statements?

Are y'all from W. Virginia?

Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 1:21:34 PM

I wonder how many of you newly minted McCain supporters will volunteer to be the first to kiss your son or grandson goodbye as he heads off to Iraq, because McCain has instituted the draft to run his war(s). He has said it needs to be "revisited" since recruitment for the military is at an all time low. How many of you want to wait at the airport for his flag draped coffin because you voted for a war you are so adamantly against now?

Show of hands...anyone?

Posted by: Really? | May 20, 2008 1:19:21 PM

Senator Obama is as guilty as Rezko in defrauding the taxpayers. Read the 5 part very detailed report "Curtain time For Obama" on REZKO WATCH on the net. He made it possible through legislation for Rezko to defraud and Obma received thousands from the same crooked people.
Do you want this man as President? I believe he belongs in jail with Rezko and others who have already pleaded guilty. The main stream media has not been honest with the American public by not reporting the trial and the known facts from the investigation.

Posted by: Mary | May 20, 2008 1:16:56 PM

Preach it, Nat Turner. And god forbid Hillary made it to the white house. She'd bring all this dysfunction to the white house.

Posted by: Brooke | May 20, 2008 1:16:26 PM

To hopesprings52;
Your comment "This issue can be spun to death" is dead on, and your post prove your point! Spin is also trying to make something asinine sound like it has merit, example,"That all seems pretty clear cut, doesn't it?"
Your arguments are baseless as is your logic.
You also wrote; "The factor that wins the general election is only one:
the electoral college total." So what magic eight ball is telling you how the GE will turn out? How does anyone know what states might buck the trends of the past? It is all up in the air this year, so again, you are the one spinning.

Posted by: Donnie Poston | May 20, 2008 1:14:38 PM

Good riddance, Clintons.

Posted by: Lani Gunier | May 20, 2008 1:11:07 PM

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