Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper
RECENT POSTS
- When In Rome...?
- President Obama Shakes Hands with Qadaffi
- More Qs for O's WH - 7/9/2009
- President Obama Urges Major Economies Forum Nations to Act on Climate Change
- Today's Qs for O's WH - 7/9/2009
- Whom Should the White House Invite to Its 2010 Nuclear Non-proliferation Summit?
- Is the Stimulus Working?
- First Ladies Visit Quake Zone
- Hoopster-In-Chief Plays "Horse" In Italy
- President Obama to Brazil's Lula: 'Next Time We Won't Give Up a 2-to-0 Lead'
MONTHLY ARCHIVES
« Previous | Main | Next »
The June Myth
May 08, 2008 8:54 AM
"It's still early," said Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY yesterday. "I mean, everybody is so focused on where we are right now -- I guess I remember that, in June of 1992, that's when Bill really wrapped up the nomination -- the middle of June, after the California primary."
We've vetted this claim before and found its accuracy to be wanting.
Then- Gov. Bill Clinton literally did not secure enough delegates through the primary and caucus process until the California primary, June 2, 1992.
But he had sewn up the nomination long before then.
Months before then.
Moreover, the first real contest that year was on February 18, 1992. (No one competed in the Iowa caucuses since Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, was a candidate that year) The first real contest this year, the Iowa caucus, was January 3, 2008. So you'd also expect that race to last later in the calendar -- it started more than a month and a half later.
But regardless of that, here are some key dates for that 1992 race that indicate how misleading this argument is.
February 18, 1992 -- Sen. Paul Tsongas, D-Mass., wins New Hampshire primary. A scandal-plagued Gov. Bill Clinton comes in second.
February 20, 1992 -- San Diego Union-Tribune headline: "Tsongas got most votes, but Clinton says he won".
February 25, 1992 -- Sen. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., wins the South Dakota primary.
March 3, 1992 -- Clinton wins Georgia. Tsongas wins Maryland. Harkin wins Minnesota and Idaho. Former California governor Jerry Brown wins Colorado. Still all very much up for grabs.
March 5, 1992 -- With no money, Kerrey ends his campaign. "We were ready to go full throttle," Kerrey says, "but unfortunately we ran out of gas."
March 7, 1992 -- Clinton wins South Carolina.
Harkin announces he will drop out.
March 10, 1992 -- Clinton cleans up on Super Tuesday, winning Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas. Tsongas wins Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Kerrey: "I would say he's got a very clear path to the nomination. But it's not a path without mine fields. There are still things out there that he's got to worry about. He's got to win."
Jim Lehrer on PBS: "David, how close is Bill Clinton to being the Democratic nominee tonight?"
David Gergen: "He's on the verge."
March 17, 1992 -- Clinton wins Illinois.
At this point, it becomes clear Clinton will be the nominee.
Tsongas drops out. Only Brown remains in the race.
March 20, 1992 -- The Dallas Morning News: "Former Sen. Paul Tsongas abruptly halted his presidential candidacy on Thursday, effectively ending the Democratic contest and turning the primary campaign into a mop-up operation for Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton. 'It was clear that we did not have the resources necessary to fight the media war in (the April 7) New York (primary),' Mr. Tsongas told a packed crowd of supporters in Boston."
The Boston Herald: "A no-holds-barred presidential race between Democrat Bill Clinton and President George Bush - in a clash of generations and vastly different values - was all but sealed yesterday as Paul E. Tsongas ended his quest for the Democratic nomination."
March 24, 1992 -- Brown wins Connecticut. Clinton holds a seven-to-one lead in delegates.
March 26, 1992 -- Harkin endorses Clinton, expressing concern that the fight between Clinton and Brown will cause divisions in the party that would hurt the nominee in November.
"I say it's time for Democrats to link arms, dig in our heels, set our sights to work together to put Bill Clinton in the White House in 1992," Harkin says.
Harkin is the first of Clinton's former opponents to endorse him, and the party begins to officially rally around the presumptive nominee.
April 1, 1992 -- Former President Jimmy Carter endorses Clinton, calling him "an honest, decent, competent, idealistic, practical man" who doesn't deserve to have his character questioned. "Pretty obviously, Gov. Clinton is going to get the nomination," Carter says.
April 4, 1992 -- Before the New York primary, Gov. Mario Cuomo says Clinton would be a "superb president."
April 8, 1992 -- Bryant Gumbel: "Good morning. Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, call him flawed, call him slick, but call him a winner this morning. He swept the primaries in New York, Kansas and Wisconsin. Big strides toward the Democratic nomination that seem his for the taking today, Wednesday, April the 8th, 1992."
As a slap in Brown's face, Tsongas -- no longer in the race -- comes in second in New York.
April 12, 1992 -- House Majority Leader Richard Gephardt, D-Missouri, endorses Clinton. "Bill Clinton will be the kind of president the United States needs to recapture our economic strength and leadership in the post-Cold War world," Gephardt says.
House Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash: "All the dominoes are falling in favor of Clinton. He is going to be the nominee."
At the California Democratic convention, Brown says Clinton is likely to be the Democratic presidential nominee, and says he will back Clinton if he is nominated.
Austin American-Statesman: "Brown strongly indicated that, having lost the New York primary Tuesday, he will campaign as a crusader for political change rather than as a serious contender for nomination. Ron Brown, national party chairman, said the comments were 'very positive' and hinted that the contest has entered a new phase. The two met privately earlier in the day."
April 14, 1992 -- Clinton wins the final round of Virginia's caucuses. "Uncommitted" comes in a strong second,
Brown comes in a distant third.
April 19, 1992 - Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, D-Maine, endorses Clinton.
Earth Day, 1992 - Clinton challenges President George H.W. Bush to a face-to-face debate on the environment.
April 28, 1992 -- Clinton wins Pennsylvania primary, having earned 1,466 of the 2,145 delegates needed to win. Brown has 316 delegates.
And on and on...
This notion that the 1992 presidential race was not over until June is literally true. But it was truly over about five or six weeks after the New Hampshire primary.
Interesting, though, how Bill Clinton and his campaign lobbied big name Democrats to rally around him once it became clear that mathematically he'd be the delegate winner. Though Brown, aware that some horrible big story about Clinton might break and change everything, stuck around.
- jpt
May 8, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (151)
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
rhbate...not going to happen...ever...hands of time will never turn back the clock to ideals/laws of the 70'...quit your scare tactics.
McCAIN ALL THE WAY (if not Hillary)!
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 4:55:55 PM
catleya...I worry that there is some buying of voters in W. Virginia or KY right now. I know she is expected to win, but Obama campaign is probably outspending again, 4 to 1, and if you see enough commercials from the guy who has money to burn, maybe it will sway voters. I hope the good people of KY and WVirginia are true Hillary supporters and remember Obama's small town people comments. Looking down his nose at the hard working Americans who make this country great. He was with the snotty liberal millionaire group in San Francisco that he fits in with so well. I hope those comments are still burning in the ears of voters in upcoming states.
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 2:31:41 AM
rhbate...give it up. No one believes McCain has a Hagey relationship for 20 years buying his BS ideology. Don't even compare to Obama/Wright...we all see through that. Obama said in his famous "kick Wright to the curb" speech.."I should have vetted my pastor". What crap! Twenty years and you can't "vet" your pastor? It would have taken most of America about 20 minutes to figure out Wright's hate filled rhetoric. I've vetted Obama...and he's out!
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 2:01:57 AM
dl...it was so great tonight on Hannity and Colmes, I found out Colmes is a Hillary supporter. I knew where Sean stand (firmly in the right). I love Fox News...fair and balanced.
Could someone explain campaign finance 101 to me....because with individual contributions at $2,300 tops, and Obama's core group being colleg kids, African Americans and liberals...how is there that kind of money in his campaign? I know he has 5 billionaire liberals behind him, but how do they "bundle" money? There is no possible way with his wins he could amount to this much. I know they outspend Hillary 3 or 4 to 1 and the money never ends. NO WAY this is poor grassroot supporters with his core group. Who are these lefty liberals with billions to buy a presidency? One of them lives in San Francisco where BO made his "clinging" remarks. Seriously want to see his fundraising books.
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 1:56:18 AM
Carl Rove is on Fox saying Obama rubbing Clinton's nose in it by claiming victory on May 20 is really the wrong move. Obama supporter caught on tape violations in voting booths..I have heard nothing but trouble with caucuses and intimidation by Obamabots...will someone look into these dishonest voting situations, like Indiana Mayor of Bend turning in suspicious votes so late Tuesday night. CNN Wolf and Anderson could not believe and another Mayor in Indiana (Hillary supporter) was embarassed it was lookig dishonest. Mayor of Bend said it was because of 11,000 early votes they were still counting.
Anyway, Carl Rove said this thing should play out and Obama is wrong at suggesting he is the winner May 20.
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 1:38:54 AM
dl...it's not just issues and policies here, my friend. Americans want to vote into the highest, most esteemed position in the world...someone who is deserving to represent us and work on our behalf. All politicians have baggage....but it better not be WHITE HATING, ANTI AMERICAN BAGGAGE for this great office of President a candidate has to earn! Obama's 143 days working as a Senator does not qualify, and knowing what we know about him now, I don't even think he should have his senate seat.
Posted by: Debra | May 9, 2008 1:30:42 AM
Sandy
get your facts straight...
I never said anything about Hillary having it all and polls and whatever...you should get your commentors straight. Hillary did have the backing of the democratic elite and lots o moneys that she lost...but nothing that has anything to do with polls?
and if I hear this stupid Starr report investigated and found nothing argument again...ugh...
Republicans wasted 70 million dollars and focused on getting BILL OUT OF OFFICE...that was the point...once they had Monica and him lying on the stand and to the American people that's what they focused on...and yes they did find out and drew up documents to go after Hillary for White water...but they knew it would be just another legal battle and fought off scandal from the Clintons and SHE was not the target... it is even being reported today from that 1200 page playbook the they had waiting for her... they have one for Obama too, but it ain't as long as the Clinton's... years and years of scandals that have lots of details that you all have not heard...and some you have but most of America thinks the Clinton scandals are MOnica and some word "whitewater" oh and maybe something to do with cattle...they don't know all the details with Hillary...they think it is all Bill.
and you think voting for Mccain is going to help us keep congress...or that his agenda will "keep it in check" with all of those things... especially with our efficient congress. A president (especially a first term President who beat out the dems this time after Bush) can get things done eventually. Supreme court justices can only keep going back so often if they are in the range and have not decided anything that was illegal or vastly to the right. As long as they have shown judicial prudence...whatever that may mean.
Voting for McCain shows congress that the American public is okay with his choices.
But obviously you don't get that.
so i guess those issues aren't as important as your anger toward you nominee not getting elected.
Which if it is the case makes your comments not worth much to most. Most Americans want the issues taken care of not the candidate. They want the candidate who will best carry out the issues. Not make more issues with their fighting or making issues that don't help them.
Posted by: dl | May 8, 2008 10:56:41 PM
REV. Wright's and his connection with OBAMA of 20 years with audacity and hope would have turned away many votes. If we took that off OBAMA's popularity vote, he is not so unelectable.
take away the rural American votes, the catholic votes, the working class ...
He is a shaky candidate in Nov
Now he is so conceited, he needs a spank and shoes in his mouth.
Posted by: John_Lai | May 8, 2008 10:36:49 PM
How do you experts know what kind of president Obama will be, the same things you say have been said about every candidate who has run for president. Only time can tell, not know-it-alls, John Kennedy won the presidency by a thread bare margin and seems to have done alright, even by your self important standards.
Posted by: fool me once | May 8, 2008 8:12:50 PM
Excellent comments Jayhawk.
Posted by: Debra | May 8, 2008 6:22:56 PM
Obama and foreign policy? What planet did that take place on? Must be the same planet Rob is on, because it sure isn't here.
Has Obama even been to Iraq? Oh, that's right. Obama did go to Somalia and play dress up with a turban.
Obama didn't vote on going to into Iraq as he was not yet a member of the U.S. Senate. Obama just stated his position as many Americans did.
When in the United States Senate, Obama voted exactly the same on Iraq war bills as Hillary Clinton except for one time when he voted with John McCain. Of course, a lot of times he missed votes or just voted "present." There's real leadership.
As I have stated before, Barack Obama is no John F. Kennedy. A better Obama correlation would be Louis Farrakhan, Tony Rezko, or Jeremiah Wright.
When I think of JFK, I don't just think of his political service. Like John McCain, John Kennedy's character was shaped by sacrifice and service in the military. Has anyone ever heard of PT109?
Before people on blogs compare great men like John F. Kennedy to political hacks like Barack Obama, they need to at least have a semblance of accurate information and show some respect for those who have made the ultimate sacrifice for their country.
Posted by: Jayhawk | May 8, 2008 5:58:30 PM
LOL Debra, how do you figure Obama is toast, wishful thinking right. And there won't be any revote. They's already a plan on seating them.
Posted by: ll | May 8, 2008 5:47:32 PM
This should play out until August, when they can revote in MI. All Americans deserve a vote....OBAMA ONLY WINS 26% OF WHITE WORKING CLASS...OBAMA IS TOAST.
Posted by: Debra | May 8, 2008 5:44:45 PM
Rob...I believe JFK had 12 years in the Senate NOT 143 days.
Posted by: Debra | May 8, 2008 5:41:32 PM
With regard to Obama's so called lack of experience, just look at JFK, who was very inactive in the senate, was frequently ill, and was not a great orator until he started running for president, and improved dramatically. JFK's experience was practically non-existent but was a revered and fine president. Obama actually writes the majority of his speeches, unlike JFK and Reagan. Obama is the brightest president we will ever have, and has consistently shown good judgement with regards to the Iraq war and foreign policy in general. His poor judgement was in underestimating the character of several people he associated with, or more pointedly, people that other people introduced to him so that they could help with his fund raising efforts. These are easy lessons to learn, especially for a younger politician. Hillary has made far more mistakes, bith on her own, and with flawed associations, and the modern press writes them off as previously 'vetted'. Same for big BIll. We all make these types of mistakes, just not to the horrendous extent for which the Clintons have shown time after time. One of Hillary's former employers during the Watergate times, who has no axe to grind, said that Hillary was one of the biggest liars he ever had working for him, and he had to fire her for her dishonesty, while refusing to write her a letter of recommendation- only one of two people ever under him that he could not in good conscious support with a letter of recommendation. This speaks volumes about her character, even when she was a young democrat in her 20's. Bill of course is far worse, but their bad behavior accounts for while they are still together. they are two peas from the same pod.
Posted by: rob | May 8, 2008 5:35:13 PM
Christopher so sorry you have to bring race into your comments. It doesn't matter if Obama is purple....it's what he stands for to many Americans (except the 98% of black support) that makes him unelectable. I get so frustrated as a 49 year old white Republican who crossed over for Hillary. OBAMA IS INEXPERIENCED (143 days worked in Senate so far), LACKING CHARACTER AND JUDGEMENT (I can't even list all his negatives here) and LACKING PATRIOTISM (McCain will cream him here).
I DON'T CARE ABOUT HIS SKIN COLOR.....I WOULD HAVE VOTED COLIN POWELL.
I AM NOT A PARTY LOYALIST. Ninty percent of the time, I vote Rep, but not always. Economy, national security are of importance to me....BUT I VOTE WITH MY HEAD AND MY HEART everytime.
NO OBAMA '08....HOPE CHANGE HATE
Posted by: Debra | May 8, 2008 5:25:06 PM
So once again Hillary gives her "version" of reality. Always thinking that the rubes won't know any better.
Maybe she should have those contact lens she wears looked at because they sure don't help her see things as they truly are.
Posted by: Richard | May 8, 2008 5:22:11 PM
FOX is more balance than NBC/MSNBC or CNN. When was the last time Keith O had anyone on who disagreed with him?
Posted by: Florida Cat | May 8, 2008 5:10:41 PM
Jayhawk, you sound like me I have been a democrat for 37 years never voted any-other way. Yesterday I re-register as no affiliation. I will never again give my vote blindly.
Posted by: Florida Cat | May 8, 2008 5:07:25 PM
Since when would putting the "Freddie Kruger" of American Politics, Hillary Clinton on the Democratic Ticket, be anyone's idea of a dream? Clintonista's in the mainstream media are trying to sell this story the same way they have tried to maintain the pseudo reality that she has a path to the nomination. It is clear powerful forces are trying to force Obama's hand into choosing her. First of all this would be a catastrophe. Trust me Hillary does not want to "count all the white people" who support her. Because that pool of folks just ain't all that deep. The fact is that there are a hell of alot of white men and white thinking women who really detest the racist, deceptive and fraudulent campaign that she has waged. Hillary has employed every tactic from George Wallace, Jessie Helms, Lee Atwater and Karl Rove's playbook and truthfully it has made more and more American despise her and everything she represents. She lost. She should withdraw, apologize and exercise some dignity and class. But I am afraid that her blind ambition for power will make that very unlikely. So, I say to Hillary, you think all the white people are with ya? Think again honey. It just ain't so. I grew up in a family of construction workers and electricians. None of them are for your candidacy my dear.
Posted by: Christopher London | May 8, 2008 5:02:07 PM
Post a comment

