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The "Told You So" Calculation

May 29, 2008 11:59 AM

"Have you seen the general election polls lately?" Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, asks in a new email fundraising pitch. "They consistently show that we'll beat John McCain in November. In a national head-to-head match and in the critical swing states, the numbers show I'm the best candidate to take back the White House for Democrats. That is why it's critical that we stay in this race and keep fighting for every last vote. We can win the nomination if we extend our popular vote lead, and that means putting everything we have into the final races. With just a few days before the voters in Puerto Rico head to the polls, our campaign is working hard -- and your support is making the difference."

Chris Cillizza at The Fix postulates that Clinton and her husband "seem to be laying the groundwork -- whether unconsciously or consciously -- to go back to Democratic voters if Barack Obama comes up short in November with a very concise message: 'Told you so.'"

Cillizza notes that Clinton herself in that Argus Leader editorial board meeting said she found calls for her to drop out "curious because it is unprecedented in history. I don't understand it and between my opponent and his camp and some in the media, there has been this urgency to end this and you know historically that makes no sense, so I find it a bit of a mystery."

Bill Clinton over the weekend, noting the electoral math arguments we've pointed out before (most significantly that Clinton out-polls Obama significantly in Florida and Ohio), said "she is winning the general election today and he is not, according to all the evidence. And I have never seen anything like it. I have never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running."

I don't know that comparing Clinton's numbers to Obama's right now is fair. Obama has been getting attacked fairly regularly by McCain, and until recently by Clinton. Conversely, I think it's fair to say that Obama has been unable to fully attack Clinton on a number of issues on which she'd be vulnerable to GOP attacks during a general election -- Clinton scandals, Bill Clinton's business dealings.

On the other hand, Obama has benefited from some embarrassingly obsequious media coverage, and Clinton from some of the roughest treatment a candidate's experienced since the Nixon years.

Some supporters of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, felt this way in 2000, too -- that Al Gore would beat George W. Bush, that the Republican party was nominating their weaker candidate.

I guess we'll see.

- jpt

May 29, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (87)

User Comments

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Sorry, but I don't want the candidate selected by the "Children of the Corn."

NO ONE HAS 2118... NO ONE WILL HAVE 2118 BEFORE THE CONVENTION!

The media, the DNC, the Obama campaign or even the SD’s can blather on all they want, but “the rules” don’t give SD’s any substance as “pledged delegates” until they vote at the convention.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: Leslie | Jun 3, 2008 3:14:17 PM

Correction: I read your pieces. A more accurate statement would have been that I'm a working mother and I haven't had a day to actually count all the anti-Obama pieces and the pro-McCain pieces and run the stats. But then again, I'm guessing I'm not far off. And while I'm at it, why does this network allow news to be reported which is based on unvetted blogs, written by people with virtually no qualifications, and no factchecking - and represent it as fact?

Posted by: Mara | May 30, 2008 10:38:30 AM

Clinton has faced the roughest media coverage since Nixon? Are you serious? I work for a living, so I haven't had time to actually run through your pieces but here's a safe guess: Anti-Obama 95% Pro-Obama or neutral 5%; Anti-Clinton 10% Neutral Clinton 90%; Anti-McCain .05% (you through in a couple which can barely be considered critical - you even found an apologist for his inane Iraq remarks) Pro-McCain 99.5%. Clinton has had a rough time? You entire PP ratings rely on fueling Obama hatred.

Posted by: Mara | May 30, 2008 10:32:24 AM

so what's the deal here with the comments...some get posted, and I guess some don't...

Why the censorship?

Posted by: S | May 30, 2008 2:23:40 AM

News flash...Hillary will suspend her campaign next week and take her appeal to Denver two days before convention. Good idea with the idiots that keep speaking at Trinity, another Rev. today on film being played on FOX. Great strategy.

Posted by: Debra | May 29, 2008 5:56:07 PM

On May 28, 2004, the Electoral Vote Predictor had Kerry ahead of Bush in the general, 327 to 211.

As of today, it has Clinton ahead of McCain, 327 to 194. It has Obama ahead of McCain, 266 to 248.

Things change. That's why citing polls to convince SDs to choose you over the candidate who won the most delegates in an election won't work. Who knows what Clinton might say in the general to mess things up. Another Bosnia sniper lie or an "assassination" type remark and she'd be toast against the Republicans. Saying she's tired or misspoke won't fly. McCain won't be as gracious.

Can't post links here but you can google it with keywords: electoral vote predictor may 28, 2004. Should be the second link on the page.

Posted by: Cindy | May 29, 2008 5:37:57 PM

Mr. Marine,
Why don't you tell us what you know about Rev. Wright... its pretty clear from your comments that you have no idea who the man actually is. He's left, for sure, but he's also a former marine.

Posted by: clearly | May 29, 2008 5:35:35 PM

Re Polls for fundraising.

The polls have been so all over the place this primary. Who in the world would reject delegate counts and base the nomination on them? R

Hillary's campaign is officially OVER on Tuesday (its really been over for a while) . Who in the world would send her money?

Who....SUCKERS thats who.

Posted by: charlottemom | May 29, 2008 5:20:01 PM

DMK...Jessie Jackson is tied up in the closet with uncle Rev. Wright, Al Sharpton, angry Michelle, and Farrakhan. They can't come out until they clinch this thing. They got the memo...no angry blacks to be covered by Media until AFTER Nov.

Posted by: Debra | May 29, 2008 4:49:51 PM

I still remember when good old Bill pardoned the Puerto Rican terrorists on his last day in office.
Why? Because he knew that one and a half million people in New York were Puerto Rican and she was going to run for Senate and President. Way to go Puerto Rico, support your terrorist friends. Don't you know that the Clinton's would sell Chelsea for a vote and never look back. I am ashamed of them and am glad that the country is seeing them as they really are. Too bad Puerto Rico does not. Too bad that Puerto Rico would vote against Obama because of the color of his skin. Let's call it what it is. Get out Hillary! Go back to your home in New York that Terry McAuffie bought for you and enjoy the Lincoln bedroom antiques you stole from the White House.

Posted by: USmarine0331 | May 29, 2008 4:34:39 PM

Well, if she plans to steal this election I will not be voting. Her actions are not democratic. It is unfair to not count the caucus states in her popular vote argument as well as discredit the uncommitted votes in MI. This is double speak and she does not care about disenfranchising voters. She only cares about her own votes and states she has won. That is not the definition of a democracy. I am infuirated with Hillary and her supporters. She is a hypocrite because her campaign manager Ickes created the rules for the primaries and voted to strip MI and FL of their delegates. This is overlook by her supporters. From the beginning, Hillary and her supporters have been trying to stop the democratic process by crowning her the presumptive nominee before any of our voices was heard. Her supporters did not have a problem with the superdelegates when over 200 endorsed Hillary prior to the primaries. Her supporters did not have a problem when Hillary agreed to the MI and Fl terms and her statement that the she would receive the nomination by feb. 5. This double talk of Hillary and her supporters are hypcritical. They have a sense of entitlement as though their voices are more important than the rest of us. Now their candidate is losing they are crying wolf. This is why we need to turn the page from people who believe they are entitled to something. Her supporters are mistaken that if Hillary steals this election people will just vote for her. You are wrong. I and others will not vote. I hope her supporters are enough for her to win the election. You have successfully divided the party with your gutter tactics.

Posted by: USmarine0331 | May 29, 2008 4:32:01 PM

This story is irrelevant speculation or simply muckraking.

The math is against Obama in the general election. Reid and Pelosi can't change that, and frankly, they don't care. They have the voter list, the amazing money machine is greased, and Pelosi is printing yard signs for 2012.

Vote for McCain, write-in Hillary or stay home. The DNC is history.

Posted by: len | May 29, 2008 4:11:41 PM

What Obama supporters don't seem to get is that millions of blue collar Americans don't mind voting for Maverick Republican Moderate U.S. Senator John McCain, if a 20 year follower of Jeremiah Wright becomes the Democratic presidential nominee.

McCain is not liked by neo-conservatives, and McCain was treated like an outcast during the Bush Administration.

Obama supporters mistakenly think that Hillary supporters will eventually accept Obama's long history of associating with black nationalists, socialists, and other radical left-wingers and vote for Radical Obama in November.

However, they are only hoping that they will.

While blue collar Americans are unhappy with Bush, they are also unhappy with Jeremiah Wright's call for his followers to ask God to D_mn America, and with his racist rhetoric, which blames white Americans for HIV, crack cocaine, and everything else that is bad in this world.

Posted by: USmarine0331 | May 29, 2008 3:55:35 PM

No, not really.

Actually, I think old "W" would probably take better care of his horses and other animals than he has our country.

Posted by: SandyB | May 29, 2008 3:30:18 PM

Nat..sorry to dissapoint you in stating what alot of people feel and the media is not covering...don't want to burst the Obamabites bubble. I am 45, white and living in L.A.....liberal land. Many of my friends feel this way, and it's not that BO is Black! It's his lack of judgement regarding his church and who he aligns himself with.
One of my best friends is black....we do not talk about this election. I love her. I don't love Obama for a President. He's a fine guy. JUST NOT FOR POTUS.

Posted by: Debra | May 29, 2008 3:29:01 PM

Jake, thank you so much for this: "Obama has benefited from some embarrassingly obsequious media coverage, and Clinton from some of the roughest treatment a candidate's experienced since the Nixon years."

Too bad you are the only true journalist that can admit that!

Posted by: Rachel | May 29, 2008 3:25:44 PM

Hillary Clinton came out the day after the PA primary with the triumphant assertion that her campaign had raised $10 million. This was a bald-faced lie, according to the Federal Election Commission which monotors contribution to candidates.
According to the FEC, Clinton took in $1,738,154.61 on April 23 and $2,578,730.28 on April 24.

It is hard to reconcile these figures with the confident claim I recall Terry McAuliffe spinning out the ten million figure all over the MSM on the day after the PA primary.

It is also hard to arrive at an accurate estimate of the actual indebtedness of the Clinton campaign.

But it cannot escape the attention of superdelegates that fiscal responsibility is a major qualification for a Presidential nominee. In such a contest, Obama would win over Clinton hands down.

Posted by: Owen | May 29, 2008 3:24:46 PM

Paige,
you're foolish to think Obama didn't use the anti-Hillary sentiments of the last 20 years as part of their stump. That's exactly what they're saying now, that she's always had "unfavorable" ratings! And the whole Bosnia sniper fire incident was promoted by them to continue to paint her that way.

So. yeah, whatever, continue to believe that Barack Obama is an angelic candidate and above politics. Because he's hardly at all.

Posted by: trustthesky | May 29, 2008 3:10:16 PM

You are absolutely right LA, my mistake and an apology.

Should have read nothing you said was coherent! Now that's fixed!

If an Obama supporter's utterances fall on deaf ears, could one assume that they never said anything?

Posted by: West Texas | May 29, 2008 3:01:39 PM

Tskey-Your talking about the candidate that started as the "shoe-in" for the nomination? The one that started with a truck-load of cash and heavy Democratic backing and a massive Superdelegate lead? That one? The only candidate anyone really heard about until March..? Now that candidate is 30 million in debt, mis-managed her campaign poorly and is blaming the media? That candidate is going to take on the Republicans? Obama never used the scandals of her past against her. The Republicans have 1400 pages of oppositional research on her - not including Bill......

Posted by: Paige | May 29, 2008 3:00:01 PM

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