Political Punch

I think it is a bit crazy that some feel Clinton is "entitled" to this chance. She was no more "entitled" than Edwards or Richardson or anyone else. Obama had no reason not to run just because Clinton decided she was running. I think anyone with a vision and a plan should run.

Clinton camp keeps repeating (stupidly) that Obama outspent her in this state and that state, as if it is something negative. Who is preventing the stinking rich Clintons from spending their 110 millions lying under their own butts?

Obama campaign is owned by millions of ordinary folks, and they give a $25 here and there.

She can't even manage her own campaign Finance...and which Hilry idiot wants to give control of this country's troubled economy in her hands?

Clintonites keep drinking her coolaid!

For all her 35 yrs of so-called experience and all that loud crap, she is a total waste, an inefficient liar and a cackler! She had it all, and lost it all. Obama is hired and she is Fired! (Unlike Bosnia, at least now, she is under real fire!)

Duck it girl and get lost!!!

Here is the bottom line. Hillary has proven she has 1/2 the voting bloc. Obama has some serious problems in the general election.

He sticks her on the ticket and he is GUARANTEED to win the white house.

There inst really a rift between them. Whomever says so is just trying to split the democratic party.

Hillary Clinton will solidify all the democratic vote for Obama. He will be president if he puts Hillary on the ticket.

If Obama wants to go with someone else and leave all the Clinton supporters out in the cold, he will win some of them back, but some will still end up defecting.

So Obama has a real dilemma. There is nobody else besides Al Gore who could provide that much high profile democrat support and give Obama an air of legitimacy .

@SJ: True enough, he would have probably been more prepared in 2012. However, he does seem to have a sense of Zeitgeist and my guess is he probably thought he wouldn't get a chance until 2016 if he passed this time around.

I agree completely that the danger of any candidate is that they are bullied by their advisors. I ultimately think this is Bush's main problem.

@MIguy good idea but I don't think you will see that.

The worry I have with him is just that the lack of experience on this stage and the blunders he will make rightly said not by his own design but by others due to the fact of their needs and hunger for political importance.

If he is nominated he has to be smart of they will push him in every direction for their own purpose and it will cost him big time, I hope good sense in that camp will hold or they will make a mess of things.

His experience and judgment factor is a bit weak he should be learning now getting ready for 2012 but it is what it is now and he is in front, so we will see how it goes from here on.

@SJ: No argument there except that I think the problem is more his advisors/supporters than him. I think humility is a good idea in general and, at the convention, Obama supporters should be buying the drinks for Clinton supporters if he gets the nomination.

@MIguy let me add also this cocky way he has of saying he know Clinton supporters will vote for him if he win, just does not sit well with some.

At this stage it is better to be humble and encourage them to do so, you cant have your camp trying to push her out then telling voters he knows they will come around to him in a GE, no people don't accept that kind of slam, that make them defiant and resolve in proving him wrong.

If he was a seasoned politician he would know this, and if he is beginning to feel he is unstoppable he will also face a very embarrassing defeat.

@SJ: No doubt about it, he needs Senator Clinton's supporters to win. And, if he does win, he needs to thank her for toughening him up a bit in the primaries and making him a better debater.

I cant speak for Senator Clinton but she seems to have the party at heart and will do what it takes to hold it together, but with saying that this responsibility lies not only with her because I have heard several AA on the media saying they want to unity with her, and Obama should not even think of it.

She on several occasions have said she would assist whoever the nominee is Obama is not that vocal in this regard, and even his wife was reluctant to support Hillary if she is the nominee.

This kind of attitude will not fair Obama well unless he feels that by some imaginary calculation he wont need the Hillary supporters come Nov if he is chosen, it is wishful thinking to believe that a strong AA presence is all that is needed to win a GE, or the young vote which we all know is very fickle and things get rather dull to them in time.

People enjoy this run off because its democrat against democrat and a lot of factors play with persons crossing the line to vote and so on, but it will not be the same in a GE, the media will not be the same, the attacks will not be the same, and all the good press Obama is getting now will surly be different then.

It will be a difficult fight the GOP does not want to lose, they will pull out all the stop, and the Obama camp weather they like it or not is going to need everyone on deck to buy into a Obama presidency, if they feel they can win without that well I don't think so.

@SJ: I think Gore lost for 3 reasons: a) backlash against Clintons, b) Lieberman, c) seemed too much the politician ('invented the internet', etc). You are right that divisions need to be healed within the Democratic party. I think if Senator Clinton plays her cards right, she ends up being a huge power broker if Obama wins the nomination and presidential election. The only way I see her 'losing' is if she loses the nomination but is perceived as a 'spoiler' by the party.

Gore won MI and he still lost, and at that time Gore did not have bitter voters in the mix the democrat party was not split as it is now.

That is the problem Obama is overlooking there are a lot of angry supporters out there and will be harden as time pass and nothing is done to fix this split.

What the democrat party is facing at this time is a different scenario, lots of angry voters that will just not either come out, write in Hillary or vote McCain, so I don't feel its as safe as his camp feels it is.

Mrs. Bud:

I agree about playing politics and using the media.

What Clinton may be teaching Obama, though, is that the general is all about WINNING. Republicans, for the most part, have understood this better than Democrats since 1980.

Don't worry - once the primary is over, we'll get to where we need to be.

@SJ: Michigan will go blue again this year. Our economy is awful up here; McCain can't win without help; maybe Romney could pull it his way, but it would be awful close.

@BMR: Nice summary on the VP choices. I think Condi Rice would be an absolute disastrous pick for McCain. In fact, any attempt on his part to keep any of the Bush/Cheney yes-men/women around will doom his campaign.

SJ: I think you'll find that Obama will run better in the Deep South and the West than anyone has seen a Democrat in quite some time.

Don Cazayoux has already shown this. Louisiana's 6th just had a special election. The GOP spent a TON of cash on ads negatively connecting Cazayoux to Obama and Pelosi.

LA-06 has been a Republican seat for 33 years. Cazayoux won, despite the ads.

BMR- I agree with everthing you said, mostly...

My grandfather served in Vietnam. He supports Obama. He was a regular blue collar guy who eneded up special forces in the Marines.

Now, you say it is all politics, but like my grandfather says- politics and the media is what got us into all this bullshit.

The sooner folks understand, the sooner we can bput the mainstream media and the candidates in their place.
It is about more than this election, and folks who say a new guy doessn't deserve a chance because he is not like HRC and McCain- WELL, I'd like to lock them in a room with my grandfather for half an hour. He's been where McCain has, he see's the same transitional lies coming out of Hillary's mouth.

If he can trust the new guy, so can I.

SJ: Michigan is not going Republican this year, just like Florida is not going Democratic.

There are a lot of major population centers, all of which will be Democratic. Also, the down-ticket prospects for Republicans are especially poor.

Well if Obama don't need FL or MI where does he expect to get the needed 270 from?

SJ: I don't think Democrats are counting Florida anyway.

They'd like to swing it, but won't count on it - not after the last two national elections, plus the primary debacle this year, and given the fact that Republicans control the entire state government.

A thought I posted on a couple other blogs: I really do expect the Obama campaign to announce their support for the Florida plan to seat half their delegation, apportioned via the January vote. It only gives Clinton an additional 19 delegates, and gives the Dems more time to repair relations there.

FL 25 MI 18 = 43, His camp will need more than a plan B to get back that loss from some other place.

BTW, Mrs. Bud, I agree about Florida being a pretty safe Republican state.

However, I expect the Dems to put a lot of money into it - if for no other reason than it forces the Republicans to spend money defending it. Also, there's an important shift this year. Registered Hispanic Democrats now outnumber registered Hispanic Republicans there. This shift could possibly swing the state.

If Obama is omitting FL from his count he is starting off with minus 25 electorial votes, that is not a small number so he better have a good plan B to buffer that loss

Mrs. Bud:

There are a lot of raw feelings on both sides right now. People have invested so much emotionally in both Democratic candidates that they are talking the hard line if their pick doesn't win.

If the candidates come together in June, regardless of who wins the nomination, I think you'll see a lot of that talk die down.

Also, remember that Hillary Clinton, whatever she may be, ain't stupid. She knows, for example, that Israel is more than capable of nuclear retaliation against any country on Earth. She also knows that the US can't do a thing to break up OPEC. Those statements, ma'am, was good old-fashioned politics. She wants to end the war - she's been consistent on that from day one.

Frankly, the math for Sen. Clinton is impossible, save a meteor in the shape of Jeremiah Wright hitting the Obama campaign headquarters. However, she's been running non-stop for at least 15 months straight. I say, give her all the time she wants. The Obama campaign and main surrogates won't push her out. And, if/when that time comes for her, she'll rally her 15M+ voters around Obama, and we'll win in November.

And just a side note- I live in Florida- it doesn't matter who gets the delegates- the amount of old school folk around here- this state is staying REPUBLICAN-

The Democrats need to choose their battles- and Florida sure as hell isn't one of them-

VP discussion for the Republicans....

Romney - Religious issues. Part of what deflated his candidacy was his very weak discussion of his Mormon faith.

Huckabee - May turn off some moderate Republicans and independents, but would lock up those farther-right voters.

Crist - There's been some nasty personal rumors swirling around him. However, he's definitely a popular governor in Florida and would help carry that state.

Pawlenty - Has fallen from favor somewhat, as Minnesota voters are expressing discontent with him. But, he's a young guy, and would help with concerns about McCain's age.

Here's a new name: Mike Pence. People are talking about him maybe running for President in 2012; a VP run now would give him national exposure, and a younger face on the ticket.

And, from the Department of Left Field: Condi Rice. (This was floating around a while ago.) McCain-Rice would be a crazy ticket. She does have some potentially huge upsides, but she's got the Iraq War around her neck like a millstone. Hard to see how a member of the Bush Administration could help this year.

@SJ: I think you are right. Although the Obama camp has, in my opinion, run a tactically good campaign they do seem to be ceding Florida. I'm not sure how they could win there so maybe that isn't a bad idea...

One of the things about a general-election map is that both candidates can definitely get to 270 against McCain - but their maps will look a bit different from one another.

Clinton's map will look like the traditional Democratic map, with the added bonus of Arkansas and maybe OH/FL. I'm still VERY suspicious of her winning either OH or FL against McCain; remember that the OH primary was open, and many registered Republicans in rural Ohio who voted for her may well not vote Democratic in the fall.

Obama's electoral map will have a number of the same Democratic states (including MI; I think it goes Democratic, even with the DNC sanctions, as many voters there know the state's Dem leaders screwed this up for them). What Obama does is bring a lot of Western states into play, plus states like North Carolina, Minnesota, and even a state like Louisiana. Remember that many Western GOP strongholds are definitely ready to turn blue.

More than the VP pick or any other consideration, though, I think what will determine the Dems' fate is how the loser goes about losing this primary. No matter who gets the nomination, if the loser doesn't go gracefully and then work to help the winner get there in November, we're screwed.

My choice would be either Crist or Huckabee, they are both very likable and have a lot of support FL is crucial in this race, so who ever locks that in will be at an advantage in the count.

Unfortunately I don't think the Obama camp is understanding the importance of holding FL and may feel they can play fast and loose with it, that will be a mistake but its their call,I know I would not do that

@SJ: Interesting thoughts... I think if McCain chooses Romney, he might lose some evangelicals (they won't vote Obama or Clinton, but they may just not vote at all). If McCain chooses Huckabee, well I don't know what happens then. Crist seems like a good choice to lock up Florida too.

@beachnan: He won Wisconsin fairly big - do you have an explanation for that? I do agree that in a general election she may have a better chance at Ohio/Pennsylvania/Florida than Obama.

DMK- just watched your video.. Not sure I understand the significance.... Hasn't this happened on both sides numerous times? If you are campaigning for HRC, I understans why you fins this important, but otherwise- too many times- just don't buy the drama. Bet CNN liked the ratings though..............

@MIguy as I see it now they both need each other to win, even if supporters on both side seems to think otherwise.

McCain has no problems, he can pick Rommeny, Huckabee, or Crist or go on something different all these persons above have a huge support base, Crist has Fl.

With the division in the democrat party at the moment is the only way to ensure both sides don't feel left out, and leave it up the Hillary and Obama to get their supporters behind them, I do believe to do otherwise they will lose no matter who the nominee is.

Don't you think its a bit unfair for the people that are not supportive of Hillary to be asking her to drop out, if any one has to right to do that would be her supporters not the person that voted against her.

Let her run her race, when she is ready she will do what needs to be done, am sure if the places were reversed Obama supporters would not take kindly to Hillary side telling him to go.

I am trying to understand how someone who has captured the black vote, the young vote, and the democratic elite, is hands down, our candidate. NO, NO, NO!!! You are leaving out the base of the democrats. This is another spin by the media, that will leave the Democrats in November holding the bag, and wondering what the hell happened to them. They shoot themselves in the foot every day. Hillary, has won almost every big state, and almost every piviotal state when it comes to the general election. The DNC is playing games with Florida, and Michigan. The caucuses were a joke. For example, Texas, she wins by 4%, and she loses the caucus. He wins Washington caucus something like 61%-35% and the primary vote was 51%-49%. In the stupid democratic party way-they only count the caucus. So, you have a candidate, who gamed the caucuses, who hasn't won many (if any), of the large states that matter in the general election, and you guys want Hillary to give up. With Obama, we are looking at a McGovern general election map. Hillary is the only candidate who can win against McCain. So stop the stupidity now!!!! For God's sake, he couldn't even win Indiana, Ohio, or Pennsylvania. He won NC-well surprise, surprise, considering the 35% AA population. You guys need a reality check.

@Jim: I writing this just to acknowledge that you made your post. I think the machine will wipe it too in the next few minutes. I'm just trying to keep a little tally of how often this is happening.

@SJ: I think choosing him as a VP candidate isn't a bad idea. It seems that your take diverges from some posters who say they will never vote for Obama.

Do NOT go "gently into that good night",
just go....and drag that spluttering
reprobate spouse of yours with you.
If you left the stage yesterday, it would be a day too late. You can only
reinvent yourself so many times before
the thinking people rebel....oh, that's
right, thinking, educated people are
on your opponent's side. Game over.

Intersting information Rudewater- I have saved all of it.... and thank you...

Onto bigger, better and more important things....

While the media would like for this nomination to play out- as it sends their rating THROUGH THE ROOF- I say we all band together and tell HRC to quit. Her website is moderated- can't even pose a question on hrc dot com, but you sure can donate in a second- Obaa's blof lets whomeever post whatever..

That aggravates me- she moderates her comments, but if I post a reasonable comment about her candidacy- my comment isn't posted, but if i want to donate- no censorship there....

Sorry folks, but that kind of campaign and personality isn't what I want running the country. Reminds me too much of GB.

She should pick Obama if the democrats want to win and Obama should do the same, if they are really both interested in winning this thing.

@SJ: No offense, but I think any Democrat strategy that relies on the Florida vote is a mistake. Been there, done that.

With that said, I think the VP talk is interesting. Who do you think Senator Clinton should choose if she is the nominee?

Obama first has to find a way to win FL, he cant turn his back on FL now because its politically convenient to do so at this moment, then in Nov get the sudden urge that FL and MI voters are important and he needs their votes.

People wont forget what he did, so it very early to be speaking about his VP he has to win first and so far the way voters are turning off of him and running into the arms of McCain, I don't think Michelle should be picking out curtains for the WH just yet.

Who do you think would be best, tomdavie?

I always thought Sebelius is Obamas best pick, but we are talking about a GENERAL election, not democratic primary.

Sebelius getting the women vote in a general election just because she is a woman is not a reality.

Idenity politics in the general election is nowhere near as important as character.

Obama needs a straight laced experienced Democrat.

Or is it an error in this particular blog... Let's see...

@Thinking: Agreed - I think he needs to wear the tie a lot less and become a little more folksy. He needs to come across as a little more approachable; more smiling, more jokes. Talk more about substance during the stump speeches, but not giving up the idealistic/hope rhetoric in the big speeches.

MPWDC-
Just because your well known in politics and have a challenger- and a damn good one at that- does NOT make the new guy the party SPLITER.

Thank goodness everyone doesn't think like you- there would be no such thing as the word innovation.

Well Obama needs to move on, and so does the Democratic Party. I am not sure that waiting for Hillary is the correct thing to do, but I am no politician.

Obama needs to introduce himself to the rest of the electorate, start talking the issues, and start running against McCain and the Republican Party.

@mpwdc: Someone has to lose - the superdelegates will decide it. the math is really hard for Senator Clinton. Although it is great that you support her so vigorously, I do not think your arguments are the belief of the majority. Nothing wrong with that, I'm usually in the minority opinion myself. But I just think that when push comes to shove, McCain will have a hard time against either democratic candidate.

I think Roxanne is correct that the VP choices of each candidate will be very important. An Obama nomination means McCain has to choose a conservative young VP to shore up his base. A Clinton nomination means McCain can go more moderate as the base will be more secure.

How can anyone call Obama someone who "unites" when he chose to run this election cycle against the best woman candidate that we've ever had? His candidacy has SPLIT the Democrats right down the middle. If ANYONE thinks this Party is coming back together after August..no matter who the nominee is...they are wrong. The Party is cooked and McCain will be elected in November.I will never vote for Obama, the face of inexperience and unanswered questions. He is the "spoiler" of 2008.

What the Democratic Party has done and is doing to the Clintons is shameful. The superdelegates were put into place for just this type of situation: to make sure the Party puts up the best person to challenge the opponent. The Party votes are split almost 50-50. The supers are saying they can't do their job because they can't take the nomination away from the African-American and the Black supporters of his candidacy? Not all Blacks support Obama. What about the half of the Party that supports Clinton? What about former Obama supporters that have changed their minds? What about voters in Florida and Michigan? For the Democratic Party to ignore the fact that Hillary Clinton is the most seasoned and vetted candidate, that Hillary Clinton has served her Party well for 30 plus years, that Hillary Clinton has a very limited number of years left to endure the rigors of the Presidency, that she is the candidate who can best stand up to John McCain in November, that Hillary Clinton has as much if not more of the voters behind her, then the Democrativc Party is stupid. I will not vote for Obama, the face of inexperience and unanswered questions.

Whither Kathleen Sebelius?

Since Hillary won't drop out, it's time to start talking about Obama's VP! She'll secure Kansas, female voters & Catholics.

OBAMA/SEBELIUS '08