Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper

« Previous | Main | Next »

Why Shouldn't Obama Win West Virginia?

May 12, 2008 11:25 AM

1.8 million Americans live in West Virginia, 665,234 of them are registered Democrats. It's bordered by two states Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois won -- Virginia and Maryland, and two states Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, won -- Pennsylvania and Ohio.  (Its fifth border state, Kentucky, holds its primary on May 20.)

The Mountain State ranks 50th in median household income, $31,008; 50th in persons in the state 25 years or older with a bachelor's degree or more, 15.3%; and 48th in per capita income, $23,995.

The state is 96% white and 3.5% African-American.

The idea of Democrats winning in West Virginia is perfectly sane. Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one -- approximately 60% to 30%.

The state has two Democratic senators -- Bob Byrd and Jay Rockefeller -- and a Democratic governor, Joe Manchin. Two out of its three members of Congress are Democrats. The state went for Michael Dukakis in 1988, Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.

Sure, with few African-Americans or college-educated Democrats, this does not seem like an "Obama" state the way these primaries have been playing out.

But Obama needs to be able to convince voters like these that he cares about them, shares their values, and will change their lives.

John F. Kennedy shocked the political world in 1960 by winning here, proving that a Catholic could win in a Protestant, heavily evangelical state. Why is it so crazy that Obama could win in West Virginia? Or at least not lose it 2-to-1?

If these Democrats vote for Clinton, the presumptive loser, overwhelmingly -- as is predicted -- that indicates a real problem for Obama. I know the delegate math is close to dispositive for Clinton, but tomorrow's butt-stomping seems to me like it should merit some serious hand-wringing among Democrats.

- jpt

May 12, 2008 in Obama, Barack | Permalink | Share | User Comments (131)

User Comments

Feed You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.

spock: Obama had been reading the speeches of RFK and when RFK was campaigning for the presidency his words were about hope and change and Obama copied them from RFK's book of speeches. But the hope Obama speaks of is the hope of becoming president and the word change is changing a white president to a black president. His words are not for the people because there isn't anything he can change in Washington without the approval of Congress. He says anything that comes into his head and people eat it up. He was a salesman at one time and knows how to sell himself to the public even if it means lying. He has felt the people out and knows what they want to hear. He is also very cunning and slick. He also thinks he has the nomination locked up so he isn't even concerned with Hillary's wins in WVA, KY and Puerto Rico. He cannot win the nominatiion without the superdelegates appointing him the nominee and they have not done that yet because the primaries are not over.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | May 12, 2008 4:13:20 PM

The media, the DNC and the Democratic Party elite has tried to shove Obama down our throats for many months now. In spite of this, Hillary is still fighting hard to protect this country against the most deceptive and divisive candidate in modern history. Dean, Pelosi, Kennedy, Kerry and the rest of the party establishment are going to get a big surprise in November, should Obama be the Democratic nominee, when he is soundly defeated by voters crossing over to McCain from their own party. We Democrats who will not sit idly by and let this dangerous wing of the party seize control will fight on, because we love our families and our country more than the Democratic Party, which is now only a shadow of the party of hope and promise it purports to represent.

Posted by: Democrat | May 12, 2008 4:08:55 PM

Hey, McCain he ain't no
magic wigga. Neither is
the lady in the pantsuit.

Posted by: anon | May 12, 2008 3:54:13 PM

Fred,

It seems like some an apocalyptic pronouncement of race. We might need to batten all the hatches so when the racial strife begins in the GE, we can let the cooler heads prevail.

Maybe the SD should tell Obama he can't win because he's black and has these quotes out of context from the Dreams of My Father.

*sarcasm* I'm afraid the country can't have this kind of blatantly scary sentiment in its halls of power. In fact, the DNC should go against the popular vote and the pledged delegates to allow the grown ups---McCain and Clinton---have a real debate on some undemocratic principles. *sarcasm concluded*

Posted by: Genna | May 12, 2008 3:43:13 PM

Jake,

The POV that Obama can't win the white vote. Well, how can that be when each state he has ALREADY WON had white people vote for him. Are those people less than the ones who have voted for Hillary?


I think the thing you are overlooking is the subtext of divide and conquer.

To women: no one really trusts and understands your ability to accomplish what you set out to do...it is because women aren't taken seriously in this country. Vote for me I won't let that happen to you.

To Hispanic voters: Obama just doesn't get it. Haven't I been there for you in the past? How could you even question that you and I will make it happen together? What will happen if you let an African American in when there are so many problems plaguing America.

To hard-working people, uh, white voters: Obama can win your vote. Look you are my 'real' base. You know I will take care of you. Didn't my husband bring peace and prosperity?


I think the best strategy Obama can have for WV, PA, OH, TX and any other state that has these dynamics in them is to tell them the truth about the economy like he did when talking about the gas tax. Tell them who you are and what you stand for. Tell them until they can repeat it in their sleep. Tell them until they can talk about how it speaks to where they live, work, and go to church.

I think the disservice of the spin Clinton has employed is it gives a pass to the GE voters that even the Clintons knew a black man couldn't win. I'd suggest the best strategy in the GE is to win the frame of the debate.

I still haven't seen Jake Tapper write out a news item on the Clintons secret plan on winning back the African American voter's hearts and minds. How about you replay the USA Today story where she identifies the hard-working quote and tell us how that is part of her core message? Do you think that 92% number against will become 80% for?

Posted by: Genna | May 12, 2008 3:34:22 PM

From Dreams of My Father, " I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASIVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER'S RACE".
Barack Obama

From 'Dreams of my Father', "The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, the other race (WHITE) would always remain just that: menacing, alien, and apart." Barack Obama

From Dreams Of My Father: "That hate hadn't gone away," he wrote, BLAMING "WHITE PEOPLE ? some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives."
Barack Obama

From 'Dreams Of My Father', "There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs," he wrote. "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names"
Barack Obama

Posted by: Fred | May 12, 2008 3:29:03 PM

The premise of this article is absurd. Obama has the nomination tied up, and investing heavily in West Virginia right now would be major strategic blunder. The comparison to Kennedy is particularly silly. West Virginia was for Kennedy like Iowa was for Obama, an early state that set the tone for the race. Kennedy didn't have a choice but to win it, and he pulled out all the stops to do it. For Obama, it's a late state, he doesn't need the delegates, and losing while trying to compete just makes him look weaker as the presumptive nominee. It's far better for him to eat the loss and focus his attention on McCain.

Posted by: Justin | May 12, 2008 3:28:59 PM

Nat Turner,

Why did you come and incite these people who usually go unchallenged. If you dredge back in different comment sections, the same people make the same talking points story after story.

Either they really believe it, or they really want us to believe it. It usually turns out the same...Obama can't win. Why debate a point of view that does not change.

Posted by: Genna | May 12, 2008 3:24:49 PM

sigh, there are some really outrageous comments here on both sides.
I am not voting for Obama in the GE, but my reasons are very specific to my own feelings about his having divided my party by race.
But in the GE he has a much bigger problem. People's concerns about his character and his ability to understand and respect the people he wants to vote for him. I have heard way too much about how people are racist. Why he is losing is more about his attitudes about people than theirs about him.
People will not vote for someone who patronizes them.

Posted by: TeresaINPay | May 12, 2008 3:16:32 PM

V. You said it right. Her voters will sit out and vote for McCain just like I will if she is not the nominee. I would never campaign for my rival. They have trashed her, insulted her in every way and I am glad she won in Indiana even at a small percentage, however, I have a feeling she got shafted in Lake County. But like Pelosi said, a win is a win. Obama cannot win the battleground states without Hillary because I believe most of her supporters there will vote McCain. If Hillary wins in WVA, KY and Puerto Rico she has it made because he can't claim himself victory or the nominee. It has to be by the superdelegates.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | May 12, 2008 3:15:58 PM

I think some of the truth is that Obama has been running pretty hard in a number of huge contests recently, and come to this smallish state, why not take a bit of a rest, given he has near as secured the nomination and not had much of a rest at all in the last 6 months? I don't believe that patronises the people of West Virginia, and it doesnt mean he can't win come November. Never mind the democratic party, I think the media needs to calm down about all of this.

Posted by: markymark | May 12, 2008 3:08:01 PM

Nat Turner: Yes she would be a fool to campaign for her rival. That would be just plain stupid. However, Obama needs Hillary so he can win those battleground states that he could not win and will not win without her help. So admit it. And are you smart enough to know why there is talk about an Obama-Clinton ticket? He can't win those states. Face it. She has 60% to his 24% in WVA. She will win in KY and Puerto Rico. Hoping she wins in Oregon, FL and MI seated and that will give her what she needs. If your that smart you should know that the superdelegates pick the nominee and what would you say if they pick Hillary? Cry in your beer? Have a drink with Obama?

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | May 12, 2008 3:05:02 PM

Why can't he win W. Va?

It has to do with the caricature of Gore and Kerry in 2000 and 2004 and how Clinton has gone after hard-working people, white people, in this election. Both groups (Republicans and Hillary Clinton/Bill Clinton) assume that you have to appeal to white pride in order to win.

It is hard to see Obama casting out race or gender in WV, PA, OH, or TX as successfully as Hillary has done. *sarcasm* Maybe he has the wherewithal to take over the same tactics which have been used by these groups in the past. If he doesn't learn how to use race as a wedge issue like SNL portrayed Hillary Clinton, then the DNC is in big trouble for the GE. **sarcasm concluded**


What I'd really like to see is the grit he demonstrated in PA repeated in these states. He started 20 to 30 points down and closed that gap to 9.4 points. He knew he would not get every voter but he'd tried to close the lead in the time that he had so Hillary Clinton would not be able to get an overwhelming number of pledged delegates from that state.

He should spend the next few months in a listening tour in this 2000 and 2004 red leaning state. He should demonstrate to reporters and white voters alike that he can take countless hours in a quest to respect all American pride this country has to offer. If he needs to do liquor shots, pump gas and get on top a pickup truck in jeans and a button down shirt, then he needs to feel their pain too.

If he happens to spend a lot of resources (ie. time, energy and money) to do it, then he definitely needs to take the time now to sleep through the rest of the primary and devise a plan.

Posted by: Genna | May 12, 2008 3:01:44 PM

Nat Turner: I will answer you, when you answer my question.

Posted by: Emily | May 12, 2008 2:43:58 PM

Guys,
There's some much racial verbiage oozing from this dialogue.It really stinks.The fact is,regardless of the trade of emotions, the candidate that is best placed to win the day will carry the day. It feels funny to see how a number of people are hell bent on passing green for yellow.Hocus Pocus isn't going to put bread on anyone's table neither will how white or blue or black they come. When we make all these funny statements let's be sure to watch the bottomline: how to seal the leak in our pockets that's now threatening everything we've worked for.Skip the cheap exuberance.It really doesn't count.

Posted by: Imagine | May 12, 2008 2:40:11 PM

Nat Turner: No, I will see you at McCain's. If Hillary declares herself as an independent she will take tremendous votes away from Obama which can give McCain the win. If she doesn't do that then she's a fool. This is a dog eat dog world and you have to fight for what you want. I definately would do that to knock him out of the presidency. I don't think she will do that but I sure think her voters will vote for McCain.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | May 12, 2008 2:30:35 PM

DL thinks that any Democrat who doesn't support Obama is not "sane"???? That notion certainly does speak to *someone's* connection to reality.

Posted by: Buford Gooch | May 12, 2008 2:29:00 PM

Self-proclaimed champion of
the working class.

Jail time not nomination
for Clinton for gypping
small vendors.

Posted by: anon | May 12, 2008 2:25:17 PM

Emily: Your are so right and Nat Turner thinks he knows it all. He is a strong supporter of Obama and no matter what you explain to Nat he isn't going to believe it. He believes only what he wants to. We all know that Obama went to a racist church for 20 years that had a pastor that was racist, anti-american and hated white people. Why didn't Obama leave that church. Oprah did right away. Obama was raised racial, disliked white people and him and Michelle were anti-americans. Obama is in this race to make history for himselve. He doesn't care less about the American people as long as he gets what he wants the presidency so he can say I did it. Nat Turner doesn't understand politics as well as he thinks and doesn't see thru Obama for supposedly an educated person. Another example of Obama is he has a book on the speeches of RFK that he studied so he knew what to say on the platform. I bet Nat Turner didn't know about that. Obama's words hope and change were in one of RFk's speeches that he copied. For an educated person he is completely dumb!!

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | May 12, 2008 2:17:42 PM

Hillary should absolutely not help Obama in this election.The way he and his campaign have disrespected herand her supporters and trashed her in every sense possible leaves no room for any cooperation.Hillary supporters will sit out or vote Mccain.Their true power will be felt in November.Democrats are an army of fools soon to be led by an idiot.

Posted by: v | May 12, 2008 2:14:45 PM

Post a comment





 

POLITICAL VIDEOS