Political Punch

Repost:

When you consider many of the factors, on the surface this would appear to be a cakewalk to the White House for Sen. Obama. First consider where the country is right now. We are in the middle of a very unpopular war in Iraq. The War on Terror is not taken seriously by the average American. Most Americans perceive our economy is in the dumpster (although it really is just a bump in the road -- the unemployment rate is still at 5.0%, a good number historically). The housing market crisis! The sub-prime mortgage fiasco! Etc.

And then we have the candidates! On the one hand we have Sen. Obama who is extremely charismatic. Just an incredible speaker! Young! Attractive! Full of energy! Rock-star quality! His message is Hope and Change; bring the troops home within six months from this "unneccessary" war in Iraq; and let's talk with the enemy; tax the wealthy and implement universal health care for everyone; and the federal government is the answer to everyone's problems.

And on the other hand we have Sen. McCain who is a very boring speaker (he had a difficult time reading last night's speech off the tele-prompter). He is NOT young! He may have some pep, but he is not "full of energy." His message is staying in Iraq until we defeat the enemy; letting the free market settle the housing market crisis; leaving our health care system in the hands of the people and their private health care insurers; a smaller federal government; and having the people take more responsibility for their own lives.

Yet, according to Real Clear Politics Sen. Obama is currently leading Sen. McCain by 2.2%

It is going to be an interesting general election!

BO did not win the nomination. The party was set to give it to BO at the very beginning when Pelosi speaks up for Obama.

I want to publicly acknowledge the double standards and corruption of the party.

Those party pundits sent out attacks dogs in Indiana, and Kentucky primary and yet BO limped across finish line. His counts of pledged delegates was far short of the required amount to win. The party pundits want to give the nomination to the black to secure their support at the cost of country.

BO is not qualified and would fail in all CEO interview. This BO is a scratch ball.

The caucus showed nothing but distortions of the will of people. The party is going to suffer for a long time of screwing the voters.

Michigan, Florida, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Dakota, Arizona, are lining up behind McCain to blow out this empty suit in general election.

McCain 08; Hillary 2012

Over 17 million votes – so no matter if you include/exclude FL or MI, she ends either slightly ahead or slightly behind Obama. And she outlasted every one of her critics.

She has EARNED the VP slot – Obama limped and barely made it across the finish line. He cannot win without her supporters. And we will abandon him in droves if she is not on the ticket in November.

Not a threat – a promise!

Hillary will rise up and save America when the GOP drops the ticking "Michelle/Rev Wright tape" bomb! Hillary supporters, she WILL be our president!

Cindy...I contributed to McCain yesterday and will be working for him 5 days a week come September. IF NOT HILLARY WORK YOUR A-- OFF TO ELECT SEN. McCAIN INTO THE HIGHEST OFFICE IN OUR COUNTRY!!! HILLARY 2012, McCAIN 2008

Ok Hillary supporters talk is cheap.

Time for all of us that said we would absolutely NOT vote for Obama, to start supporting McCain. He needs our contributions.

The Obama supporters do not believe we are serious--but our voices can be heard.

McCain does not have the charm or speaking skills of Obama--but he has something far more vital to America:
strength, humility, experience, patriotism, and a history we can depend on.

If you trust McCain then he needs our support. Doesn't mean we are giving up on Hillary. She will have another chance.

Hillary 2012 McCain08

Interesting that HRC supporter Yavo is uncapable of comprehending the rules that are in place that determines the Democratic nominee. Obviously, the Clinton campaign did not understand the simplistic formula of acquiring more delegates than their opponent. Unfortunately, Al Gore learned this lesson in the General Election in 2004.

Yavo Lem, interesting stats. However, you really can't compare the Electoral Votes. That's because some of the states that Sen. Clinton won will vote for any candidate who has a "D" next to their name. So Sen. Obama would win those anyways. And some of the states that Sen. Obama won will vote for any candidate who has an "R" next to their name. So Sen. Obama (and even Sen. Clinton) would lose those anyway.

I have to go out for a while, but in the mean time, perhaps the more intelligent people here would like to peruse the following analysis, for which I alone am responsible:

Total vote = 33,808,579 (without Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total vote = 34,046,747 (with Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Clinton = 17,090,391 (with Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Obama = 16,956,356 (with Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Diff. = +134,035 (Clinton) (with Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Pct. = +0.4 (Clinton) (with Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Clinton = 17,090,391 (without Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Obama = 16,718,188 (without Mich. “UNCOMMITTED”)

Total Diff. = +372,203 (Clinton)

Total Pct. = +1.1009% (Clinton)

The above number are the actual vote totals from the NY Times web site, and compiled on my spreadsheet. The are up-to-date through 12:00 PM, June 4, 2008. Any errors are my own, and it would be appreciated if they would be pointed out, with support.

Further:

Total Clinton Electoral Votes = 311

Total Obama Electoral Votes = 227

Total Electoral Votes needed to win the General Election = 270

Total Obama PLEDGED DELEGATES = 1764 (includes Projected)

Total Clinton PLEDGED DELEGATES = 1640 (includes Projected)

Diff. Between candidates = 124

“Magic Number” for Nomination = 2118

Obama needs for Nomination = 354

Clinton needs for Nomination = 478

Total number of SUPERDELEGATES = 825 {vote at Convention ONLY)

Senator Obama, contrary to popular opinion has not won anything at this point, other than 1,764 PLEDGED DELEGATES, and since 2,118 are now needed for the Nomination, he is NOT the nominee in any shape or form. SUPERDELEGATES, and even PLEDGED DELEGATES, can change their minds at any time, and even the PLEDGED DELEGATES are not REQUIRED to vote for the specific candidate to whom they are pledged.

P.S.- I apologize in advance if the formatting doesn't hold.

crat says: Obama claimed a stolen nomination with the MI delegates he hijacked. His endorsements from superdelegates have no integrity and are irresponsible.

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First of all Mi should have never been counted in keeping with the rules. And would you say the same thing about the endorsements if they were for Hillary.

"If you say that 2118 is the number required and say that BO got 2156, he has more than required." He has reached this number but counting the SD's and not just pledged delegates. That is why this idea that he is the nominee is so laughable. Counting the votes of people who have a reputation of switching sides. The SD votes do not count until the nomination.

"Still, he racked up enough points in the first 60% of the contests, it didn't matter when it came to the final score." This was a tied race - no candidate had the requisite number of pledged delegates to get the nomination. The DNC and the superdelegates made up the difference -the "first 60% of the contests" not relevant.

Obama claimed a stolen nomination with the MI delegates he hijacked. His endorsements from superdelegates have no integrity and are irresponsible.

No doubt Obama will be defeated in November when he will crash and burn and the Democratic Party will be a train wreck.

Hillary Clinton supporters should work for Obama’s resounding defeat and vote for McCain. I will vote for McCain in a swing state. Obama, his supporters, and the DNC must be "punished" for not playing fair and square.

Superdelegates have failed in their responsibility to endorse Sen. Clinton as the best qualified and the strongest presidential candidate to win the general election in a landslide victory hands down.

Hillary would never win in the GE. Her negatives are way to high.

Laura, I was at a gathering last night of mostly women who fought for Senator Clinton's campaign...

They were very happy with her speech.

The women were educated so maybe you would call them informed and knowledge, never can say they were hoodwinked!

all but 2 were very astounded by her knowledge. ...

she was proving that people who were supporting her, all Americans were thrilled she was the strong leader America needs. One woman even said "no wonder she has a 130% approval rating"

they were all angry at the DNC for shoving BO down their throats.
and I truly said nothing...I wasn't about to open my mouth and show them how in awe I am of this great lady! these women were all prominent supporters from the NH campaign.

Clinton's win in South Dakota just shows how much campaigning matters. Obama did the what he needed to and spent the last several weeks focused on the general election. Meanwhile, Clinton campaigned vigorously, and mostly uncontested, in states like South Dakota and Puerto Rico. She earned her wins and the respect for them, but it doesn't speak to anything other then her ability to campaign. Had she shown that kind of ability at the beginning of the race, instead of the last third of it, she likely would have been the nominee. However, Obama ran a much better campaign over the long haul. That's why Obama is the nominee, and why he's the stronger candidate against John McCain.

Vickie,
If you say that 2118 is the number required and say that BO got 2156, he has more than required.

Anyway, the way the whole thing has been going, it didn't matter anymore since some time, from the time when the DNC had rallied enough support towards BO. They then knew that the popular votes didn't matter anymore, except for the ordinary voters who saw the campaign going on as a hope for Hillary to overturn the situation.
But it also matters to the analysts who will be able, later to analyse and draw conclusions.
What Hillary has gained is that she was able to show she could fight even against the mainstream current. And for that she could rally voters to support her.
I think the negatives are always heading towards something or someone and this time it's towards her . But wait and time will speak. Things can never be the same. Look at Bush, how much he was praised and now he is below zero.
I think she has the support of people who really trust her and that will not go away easily.
I think that if she can run independent, she can have a lot of chance.

jmc663:

Bask all you want. BO isn't the nominee. Facts are funny things, aren't they?

I do not believe any candidate has the right to handover votes to another candidate after they have decided not to run. These voters have a mind and preferences and therefore they should be allowed to make a choice for themselves. If Hillary decides to concede, she cannot say that I should support a person she wants. I have the right to make my own choice. So, just because Edwards conceded and now supports Obama, his supporters have the freedom to support who they want.

Yes, she did. What happened to the VASTLY SUPERIOR, STRONGER candidate? Between the two states, he made a net gain of ONE PLEDGED DELEGATE. Please note that there are now 825 SUPERDELEGATES to vote in Denver, up from 795, thanks to the Florida Michigan debacle, and rest assured that that issue will be revisited in Denver.

Livegap, you wrote: "NOBODY in Michigan voted for him (Sen. Obama)."

Technically that is true, because his name was not on the ballot. However, EVERYONE in Michigan knew that if they supported someone not on the ballot that they could vote "Uncommitted." The "Uncommitted" vote received 238,168 votes, just 90,141 less than Sen. Clinton. The overwhelming majority of those votes were Obama and Edwards supporters. And since John Edwards has since endorsed Sen. Obama...