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Is the McCain Brand Damaged?
June 20, 2008 9:36 AM
Recent polls show Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Illinois, tied among independent voters. But McCain needs to win independents to win the presidency, and there are indications that the McCain "brand" -- his image as an independent maverick -- has been damaged in the past few years.
Paul West, Washington bureau chief of the Baltimore Sun, recently wrote that McCain "was often called the country's most popular politician and widely admired for his independent streak. It wasn't too many years ago that 'maverick' was the cliché of choice in describing him. But that term didn't even make the list this year when voters were asked by the Pew Research Center to sum up McCain in a single word. 'Old' got the most mentions, followed by 'honest,' 'experienced,' 'patriot,' 'conservative' and a dozen more. The words 'independent,' 'change' or 'reformer' weren't among them. Voters have notoriously short memories, but it could be argued that McCain cheapened his own brand."
Part of McCain's problem is the dark cloud that is President Bush's presidency, and the impact Bush's unpopularity is having on fellow Republicans. Indeed, McCain's supporters argue that McCain's independence is the only reason that the presidential is at all close, given the blatant doom and gloom Republican members of Congress project when discussing how their party is certain to lose seats in the House and Senate this November.
Part of what hurts McCain is the very unpopularity of the war in Iraq, a war he has ardently supported.
But there's another factor as well.
Yesterday, when Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., insinuated that McCain is a flip-flopper it gave Camp McCain the opportunity to poke fun at Kerry -- "He was for John McCain before he was against him," one senior aide quipped, referencing not only Kerry's bungled 2004 line about the $87 billion in Iraq war funding but reports that Kerry implored McCain to be his running mate.
But Kerry was not wrong in his assertion McCain has changed his position on a number of issues.
"He has changed on taxes which he once called dangerous, and now he is in favor of the permanent Bush tax cut which he once voted against," Kerry said. "He's changed on oil drilling. He's changed now, or he's indicated a willingness to change, on the Arctic Wildlife Refuge."
This week, McCain did in fact change his position on drilling off shore. And though he told Sean Hannity in March that "ANWR is a pristine place. I don't support drilling there. I just feel that it's an area that, one, it would take years, I think, before you could actually exploit it" this week of drilling for oil in ANWR, McCain told voters in Missouri, "I would be more than happy to examine it again." The McCain campaign says the energy crisis necessitates opening the US to drilling.
(Perhaps not surprisingly, Jeb Bush, who opposed off-shore drilling as governor of Florida, defended McCain saying, “You can protect the natural resources and the coastline of the state and also be part of national effort to deal with a national security crisis that our country faces right now,” he said. “It’s a huge economic problem for a lot of Americans, which is four-plus dollars a gallon gasoline. It’s a burden that was never anticipated when we were discussing drilling policy 20 years ago, 10 years ago, five years ago, two years ago. So I think you’ve got to give people in public life a little bit of room when the context changes for them to also adjust their views.”)
But off-shore drilling is just the latest apparent shift in views. Perhaps most glaringly, in May 2001, McCain said of the Bush tax cuts, “I cannot in good conscience support a tax cut in which so many of the benefits go to the most fortunate among us, at the expense of middle class Americans who most need tax relief." In October 2007, McCain promised, “I will not let the Democrats roll back the Bush tax cuts," and he's making an issue out of Sen. Barack Obama's desire to repeal the same tax cuts McCain opposed.
He showed political courage last year by trying to pass an immigration reform bill unpopular with the Republican base, but then, chastened, in January during a Republican debate said he wouldn't vote for that very legislation he wrote.
What's the impact of all this? He is seen as less independent -- and as less centrist.
An ABC News/Washington poll from this month indicated that 57% of Americans think McCain would take the country the same direction as George W. Bush, with 38% saying he would take the nation in a new direction.
There's also the Goldilocks question -- whether voter think a candidate's views on issues are too liberal, too conservative, or just about right.
52% of voters in our latest poll think Obama's views are "just about right" ideologically. Eight years ago, in February 2000, 55% of those polled said the same about McCain.
But today, only 40 percent call McCain "just about right" ideologically.
That's a problem for Mr. McCain.
- jpt
June 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (127)
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McCain is a tainted meat patty. He should be recalled.
Posted by: D MINER | Jun 23, 2008 9:32:51 AM
When McCain wins in November, it's not because voters like him that much. He has problems with the social conservatives and independents don't think he's really that "maverick."
McCain will win because people will vote against Obama. The conservatives will come out in full force to vote against ultra-lib Obama. 25% of Hillary supporters are voting for McCain (others are staying home), and he has 1/2 the independents. That's why McCain looks happy these days.
Posted by: Juju | Jun 20, 2008 12:09:45 PM
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Yes Juju, McCain can smile and I say too darn bad Dem's you kicked your own butt!
********************************
HP Boston said: McCain will win because people will vote against Obama. The conservatives will come out in full force to vote against ultra-lib Obama. 25% of Hillary supporters are voting for McCain (others are staying home), and he has 1/2 the independents. That's why McCain looks happy these days.
LOL!!!!!!!! This is too funny. You really think this old fart is going to win? Seriously now.
Posted by: Dennis in Orlando, FL | Jun 22, 2008 3:12:59 PM
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Nope those were JUJU words I can not take credit for her spot on opinion.
I simply agree wholeheartedly.
Posted by: HP Boston | Jun 20, 2008 2:39:20 PM
Posted by: HP Boston | Jun 23, 2008 9:01:25 AM
HP Boston said: McCain will win because people will vote against Obama. The conservatives will come out in full force to vote against ultra-lib Obama. 25% of Hillary supporters are voting for McCain (others are staying home), and he has 1/2 the independents. That's why McCain looks happy these days.
LOL!!!!!!!! This is too funny. You really think this old fart is going to win? Seriously now.
Posted by: Dennis in Orlando, FL | Jun 22, 2008 3:12:59 PM
The Republicans have more that fear and smear in their bag of tricks, they also have deceit and misrepresentation. McCain is making the claim that offshore drilling will provide short term energy relief, but govt estimates are that if approved today, it wouldn't have much impact before the 2030s. He also misrepresents Obama as being anti nuclear, while the truth is Obama is for using nuclear as part of a package of alternatives. A McCain ad is suggesting that he is pro alternative energy, but it's a lie. He only favors centralized alternatives like nukes, he opposes alternatives that encourage individual citizens to be energy independent, like wind, solar, geothermal and hydrogen exchange batteries.
Posted by: Javalation | Jun 21, 2008 11:43:16 AM
John McCain debates himself daily......He has flip flopped on almost every single issue.
How can he debate Sen Obama when he hasn't finished debating himself.
John MCCain of 2000 would NOT support or vote for John McSame of 2008
Posted by: McFlipFlopper | Jun 21, 2008 8:15:09 AM
You might want to change the title. When I first glanced at it I thought it read "Is McCain Brain Damaged".
Posted by: cincyr | Jun 20, 2008 6:51:35 PM
2 days ago:
In front of a sea of news cameras at a press conference earlier today, when senior House Democrats discussed the ongoing energy crisis that has spun out of control on their watch, Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY) dropped this bombshell as he stood next to House Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (D-IL): He proposed a Washington takeover of the entire oil industry!...
Another step by the ultra liberals to completely socialize America!
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jun 20, 2008 3:08:35 PM
dl:
That's what kills me about this particular election season. People are formulating opinions about a candidate based on media soundbytes, not on the issues. Do some research independently before voting. It's called being informed.
Posted by: Brett | Jun 20, 2008 3:00:45 PM
LOL at the character issues. You're telling me Hillary and her family don't have twice as many character issues to deal with? You people really confirm the belief that Americans are nuts. No wonder other countries shakes their heads at our political system and foreign policy blunders.
Posted by: Brett | Jun 20, 2008 2:55:40 PM
Yeah, put Obama in office. Then sit back and watch this country tank. Obama is going to be Carter's 2nd term. The man has no idea what he is getting himself into, and just likes the idea of saying he is the first black pres. So go ahead and vote for Obama, and then start saving all the money you can, because our taxes are going to rise very fast.
Posted by: Tina | Jun 20, 2008 2:53:42 PM
He can come on TV and say anything since there is no backing for anything he says.
Posted by: smartprimate | Jun 20, 2008 2:39:01 PM
--------------------------
AND Obama has the money to BUY the
whole shebang!
Posted by: HP Boston | Jun 20, 2008 2:42:44 PM
When McCain wins in November, it's not because voters like him that much. He has problems with the social conservatives and independents don't think he's really that "maverick."
McCain will win because people will vote against Obama. The conservatives will come out in full force to vote against ultra-lib Obama. 25% of Hillary supporters are voting for McCain (others are staying home), and he has 1/2 the independents. That's why McCain looks happy these days.
Posted by: Juju | Jun 20, 2008 12:09:45 PM
-------------------------------
Yes Juju, McCain can smile and I say too darn bad Dem's you kicked your own butt!
Posted by: HP Boston | Jun 20, 2008 2:39:20 PM
In the quiet of the voting booth... the right will eventually vote for McCain; the left will vote for Obama and the middle will vote for the one they feel represents their values.
McCain is floundering right now because he is opposing a "blank slate" that has no defined values but the commercial trademarked key worded persona created by a political strategist. To the cynical pol, he is the perfect candidate: half white, half black, no pesky legislative history, no history of opinions.... and on and on. He can come on TV and say anything since there is no backing for anything he says.
Posted by: smartprimate | Jun 20, 2008 2:39:01 PM
WOULDN'T THAT BE GREAT THOUGH!
Hillary back in the race ....... but not with B O ;-)
Posted by: UNQUESTIONABLY: | Jun 20, 2008 2:27:52 PM
Why are you still harping on Hillary? I thought she was out of this thing. Or are you worried that maybe she isn't?
Posted by: HoosierSue | Jun 20, 2008 2:19:33 PM
Given a clear need for a different base, his only hope is Hillary Clinton who manages to keep her supporters without dividing them. Remember, she isn't campaigning. She is sitting pat on a flush hand. Obama is gaffing and creating doubt.
Posted by: len | Jun 20, 2008 12:51:05 PM
------------------------------------
You got that right len................
McCain is my very same non wavering choice. Hillary as a write in is a second choice. There is no other.
Posted by: HP Boston | Jun 20, 2008 2:06:18 PM
SPEAKING OF AGE:
This country is not growing any younger;
treat it gently and with reverence... AND AT ALL COSTS, PROTECT IT!
COUNTRY BEFORE PARTY!
Posted by: UNQUESTIONABLY: | Jun 20, 2008 1:57:32 PM
Obama: Just another politician with a different wrapper.
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jun 20, 2008 1:53:42 PM
At this point we need as much change as possible.
Posted by: Changing The Country | Jun 20, 2008 1:53:31 PM
Obama is the candidate of change. Change after change after change after change... .
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jun 20, 2008 1:51:20 PM
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