Plouffe's PowerPoint Presentation Presents (Positive? Presumptuous?) Political Prognostications

At a presentation for fundraisers last week, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe made a big splashy PowerPoint presentation on how he can win, which a Democrat helpfully sends over this morning.

Check it out here (you will need PowerPoint.)

Some of the presentation points include noting the electoral votes by state from 2004 which resulted in President George W. Bush's reelection with 286 electoral votes, Sen. John Kerry's defeat with 252.

The presentation notes that Obama is "going up on television early" in the following states: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia.

"Obama Poised to Win Historic Level of Support from Women," Plouffe declares.

Noting that former President Bill Clinton's margin of victory with women was 16 points, former Vice President Al Gore's was 11, and Kerry's was three, Plouffe lays out various polls (of various quality!)  from May 14 through June 15 indicating Obama's margin over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in polls ranged from +12 to +19.

"Obama Holds Dominant Lead Over McCain Among Hispanics, A Key Swing Group," the presentation says. In 2004, Kerry beat Bush with Hispanics, 53 – 44. In 2000 Gore beat Bush 62 – 35. A recent poll showed Obama beating McCain even more handily, 62-28.

"Obama Consolidating Democrats as He Builds Strength Among Independents," Plouffe said, showing Obama pretty much tied with independents. (Color me naïve, but this one seemed pretty weak to me.)

"Expanding the Map: Turning Red States Blue," Plouffe said, targeting  Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico.

"Winning in Traditional Battleground States," he said, referring to the June 18th Quinnipiac Poll showing Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Then, perhaps as a pivot point for the hard-sell to the fundraisers: "RNC & McCain Money."

Plouffe quotes McCain adviser Carly Fiorina on CNN in May: "The RNC is raising money very specifically for the presidential campaign, and by the rules the money that the RNC raises can be used for the presidential campaign. So, it actually is very relevant to talk about what the RNC raises.".

And -- ouch -- the last card shows the DNC's $4.4 million cash on hand compared to the RNC's $53.6 million.

Clearly the sell proceeded along these lines: We can win this, but we need money.

- jpt

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