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Plouffe's PowerPoint Presentation Presents (Positive? Presumptuous?) Political Prognostications

June 24, 2008 12:30 PM

At a presentation for fundraisers last week, Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe made a big splashy PowerPoint presentation on how he can win, which a Democrat helpfully sends over this morning.

Check it out here (you will need PowerPoint.)

Some of the presentation points include noting the electoral votes by state from 2004 which resulted in President George W. Bush's reelection with 286 electoral votes, Sen. John Kerry's defeat with 252.

The presentation notes that Obama is "going up on television early" in the following states: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Indiana, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia.

"Obama Poised to Win Historic Level of Support from Women," Plouffe declares.

Noting that former President Bill Clinton's margin of victory with women was 16 points, former Vice President Al Gore's was 11, and Kerry's was three, Plouffe lays out various polls (of various quality!)  from May 14 through June 15 indicating Obama's margin over Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in polls ranged from +12 to +19.

"Obama Holds Dominant Lead Over McCain Among Hispanics, A Key Swing Group," the presentation says. In 2004, Kerry beat Bush with Hispanics, 53 – 44. In 2000 Gore beat Bush 62 – 35. A recent poll showed Obama beating McCain even more handily, 62-28.

"Obama Consolidating Democrats as He Builds Strength Among Independents," Plouffe said, showing Obama pretty much tied with independents. (Color me naïve, but this one seemed pretty weak to me.)

"Expanding the Map: Turning Red States Blue," Plouffe said, targeting  Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico.

"Winning in Traditional Battleground States," he said, referring to the June 18th Quinnipiac Poll showing Obama ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.

Then, perhaps as a pivot point for the hard-sell to the fundraisers: "RNC & McCain Money."

Plouffe quotes McCain adviser Carly Fiorina on CNN in May: "The RNC is raising money very specifically for the presidential campaign, and by the rules the money that the RNC raises can be used for the presidential campaign. So, it actually is very relevant to talk about what the RNC raises.".

And -- ouch -- the last card shows the DNC's $4.4 million cash on hand compared to the RNC's $53.6 million.

Clearly the sell proceeded along these lines: We can win this, but we need money.

- jpt

June 24, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (38)

User Comments

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So far the the women in my family are not impressed.

Posted by: tww | Jun 24, 2008 1:56:47 PM

A great statement from
LtCol. Allen West :

( and if you don't know Allen West...he is worth googling )

My advice to Senator Obama is to run as a Man and Leader, and the American people will evaluate you as such, not as a victim. This is a Presidential race, based solely on a capacity to lead the United States of America. It is not about skin tone...however, perhaps we should come to expect these immature statements.

It also seems rather humorous that the Presidential candidate who was supposed to be such a "uniter" and transcend race is the one talking about it the most. If Senator Obama was confident in his abilities and character, he would not need to create a crutch for failure. Senator Obama has just tipped his hand, any criticism of him and his policies will be directly attributed to racism. I congratulate Senator Obama for taking race relations in America back some 30 years.

Posted by: carpenter.nyc | Jun 24, 2008 1:50:41 PM

"Obama Consolidating Democrats as He Builds Strength Among Independents," Plouffe said, showing Obama pretty much tied with independents. (Color me naïve, but this one seemed pretty weak to me.)"

Obama camp changing states from RED to BLUE will need more than splitting 50-50 the independent voters in many states.

The 2004 exit polls show 10 states where the margin (win/lost) was less than 4% and John Kerry won independents in most cases overwhelmingly.

Red States won by Bush with margin of 4% or less
CO: Kerry won 52% to 45% among indep.
NM: Kerry won 52% to 45% among indep.
NV: Kerry won 54% to 42% among indep.
OH: Kerry won 59% to to 40 among indep
FL: Kerry won 57% to 41% among indep.
IOWA: Kerry won 53% to 45% among indep.

Blue states won by Kerry with margin of 4% or less
PA: Kerry won 58% to 41% among indep.
MI: Kerry won 49% to 47% among indep.**
WI: Kerry won 53% to 45% among indep.
MN: Kerry won 55% to 42% among indep.
OR: Kerry won 58% to 40% among indep.

Posted by: Angel | Jun 24, 2008 1:36:47 PM

Jake,

Why is everything Senator Obama does labeled presumptuous? It's hard to run for President of you don't plan to be President. Quit trying to create a "narrative" all of the time - it's annoying.

Posted by: Nobodys fool | Jun 24, 2008 1:26:05 PM

geevil wrote:
The polls cited are a joke. Obama has no where near the support the charts show.
-------------
okay. let's see the charts you're reading from.

Posted by: Cooley | Jun 24, 2008 1:22:27 PM

dl

Well said.

Posted by: Cooley | Jun 24, 2008 1:20:49 PM

I thought obama said he has all the money he needs!

Imagine puttin himself in front of the hungry in his Hyde Park neighborhood!

Posted by: trettione | Jun 24, 2008 1:16:00 PM

"I believe he was born in Kenya as stated by his father brother and others."

Oh. Well, he and Kerry and Axelrod ought to quit jamming up the Democrats with this cult crap, then.

Can he be deported for annoying everybody half to death with his boring bs?

Posted by: Ma Belle | Jun 24, 2008 1:11:45 PM

"This little PUMA group ... "

This little PUMA group is going to bring down the Democratic "leadership" that maneuvered the plastic one to within a whisker of the Democratic nomination, and thereby save us the trouble and expense of a full-tilt revolution.

This seems like a GOOD thing.

Posted by: Ma Belle | Jun 24, 2008 1:08:48 PM

My son was born in Hawaii in 1962 in a military hbospital and we have an Hawaiin birth certificate and it looks nothing like this computer generated one of Obama's. I believe he was born in Kenya as stated by his father brother and others.

Posted by: Mai | Jun 24, 2008 1:04:47 PM

It's going to be a blow out ...

too bad the couple of people lost on here...thinking they have some kind of new movement...

This little PUMA group must be noticing all the people who may have signed up initially are finally cooling off and now they see their numbers go through the floor of active participants.

It is human nature to be upset at losing initially and say and sign up for lots of stuff...

but when you are a voter who cares about the country you slowly learn as most adults...

grudges don't feed kids, or make us safer...or keep the wealthy from gaining more on the backs of the rest of the country.

grudges don't protect women's rights or further women's issues.

and they don't keep a republican presidency pushing for the "market" to correct the problems of healthcare.

and most of all grudges don't tell Washington that issues matter.

2008 will be one of those moments in our history. Where obama and a new generation that has grown up less divided...less brain washed...less a part of the "me" generation... says...

we are the "us" generation.

Posted by: dl | Jun 24, 2008 1:00:50 PM

I am struck with the parallels between the "incredibly organized and well financed" (former) primary campaign of Mitt Romney and the Obama campaign.

Ultimately, each candidate must sink or swim on his or her own regardless, of how much campaign money they have or how effectively they use the internet. (Just ask Howard Dean.)

In addition, this is especially true this year, given the nature of both McCain's and Obama's appeal.

I do not believe that money can buy an election in this country—not this year.

My prediction: This election will be VERY close and down to the wire, much like Bush-Gore in 2000.

(Too bad Obama has alienated the Cuban community in particular and Floridians in general, because a plurality of a few thousand Florida voters may decide this thing again.)

Posted by: Stephen Gianelli | Jun 24, 2008 12:55:06 PM

outstanding jake!

can we get mccains power point presentation?

oh wait that just contains one slide and one line of words

a picture showing the white house blowing up... terrorists will kill us all

Posted by: bhrandon | Jun 24, 2008 12:51:47 PM

"Obama Poised to Win Historic Level of Support from Women," Plouffe declares.
****************************************
Uhmm. Yeah.....Wright. "Mission Accomplished". PUMA!

Now, about that fake "Certification of Birth" posted at "fight the smears". anyone at ABC checking into that yet?

Posted by: SadStateOfAffairs | Jun 24, 2008 12:48:12 PM

This election is going to ba a landslide. Obama's numbers get better every day. New PPP poll has him up easy in PA. Latest est. on fundraising predict he has raised about 10 million in five days.

No one is donating to McCain, he has to use RNC $$.

Posted by: Pete | Jun 24, 2008 12:46:41 PM

Give me a break, the DNC only has $4 million?! Right. Let's look a little deeper here. I'm not buying it.

Posted by: Runon Jim | Jun 24, 2008 12:42:54 PM

The polls cited are a joke. Obama has no where near the support the charts show.

Posted by: geevill | Jun 24, 2008 12:40:36 PM

"Clearly the sell proceeded along these lines: We can win this, but we need money."

Ah! Obamessiah's running out of fools, and his money's drying up? GOOD.

One of my great-grandmothers, now deceased, used to say "Paper will lie still and let you write anything on it."

Posted by: Ma Belle | Jun 24, 2008 12:38:20 PM

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