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Barack Obama's Butterfly Effect
July 20, 2008 4:45 PM
Today on CBS's Face the Nation, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in Afghanistan, told the paparazzi-pursued correspondent Lara Logan that "the objective of this trip was to have substantive discussions with people like President Karzai or Prime Minister Maliki or President Sarkozy or others who I expect to be dealing with over the next eight to 10 years.
"And it's important for me to have a relationship with them early, that I start listening to them now, getting a sense of what their interests and concerns are."
The notion that Obama will be dealing with world leaders for eighjt-to-ten years, possibly up through July 2018, suggests that either (a) he believes that not only will he be elected and re-elected, but the 22nd amendment will be repealed and he will be elected for a third term, OR (b) he was speaking casually and just meant two terms.
(I'm guessing b.)
There is a term in chaos theory describing the how infinitesmal variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.
Most of us are more familiar with the more common name for it: the butterfly effect.
The butterfly effect was introduced in Ray Bradbury's 1952 short story "A Sound of Thunder," when time travelers change the world beyond measure by accidentally killing a butterfly in prehistoric times.
Similarly, international diplomacy can be impacted by careless or glibly-chosen words. (Cue President Bush's "crusade" remarks.)
Some Democratic allies of Obama's are -- off the record -- concerned that the senator too often doesn't consider the potential butterfly effect of his diction.
Take his support for an "undivided Jerusalem," or his remarks about women seeking abortions when they're "feeling blue," which upset feminist leaders.
Or the media kerfuffle after his "refine my policies" presser.
On his press plane on July 5, after that incident, Obama said, "I’m surprised at how finely calibrated every single word was measured."
A reporter noted that that is precisely what happens with the president, he can change world affairs with one word, finely calibrating your words is what happens.
"Well, of course, no, I understand," Obama said. "But for me to say that I’m going to refine my policies, you know, I don’t think in anyway is inconsistent with prior statements and doesn’t change my strategic view that this war has to end and that I am going to end it as president."
This week Obama will have his words picked apart like never before, and it will be an international audience of not just opponents but actual enemies.
They will be watching and waiting to see if he kills any butterflies.
- jpt
July 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (212)
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Tapper. This is just dumb. Let's say he gets elected. I don't think anyone plans to be a one term president...sure there are exceptions. That said once you've been a two term president it is likely that you will continue to meet with world leaders on projects not related to the White House for the rest of your days. Especially if you still relatively spry as Obama will be after 8 years. Did you not notice the hand in hand buddy team of Old George Bush and Clinton? Please try to write something real and useful instead of all this character assassination bs. It's transparent and it STINKS.
Posted by: CityzenJane | Aug 5, 2008 2:56:30 PM
Will the real Obama please stand up
Posted by: Mike | Aug 2, 2008 10:05:12 AM
2 Things - The Butterfly Effect is not what Ray Bradbury Describes, but refers to something as light as a butterfly flapping its wings changing weather patterns all over the world.
Also, Carter still has relationships with world leaders, and he hasn't been President for decades. Like it or not, weather or not Obama is elected, he is going to be a player on the international stage for a long time. I find the 10 year number modest.
Posted by: David | Jul 30, 2008 3:01:47 AM
Obama is on the Senate Foriegn Relations Committee. Even if he loses in November, he will be "dealing" with these foriegn leaders.
The Corporate-Owned Media is desperate, clutching at straws to avoid discussing issues.
Discussing issues might hurt McCain and jepordize the Corporate Tax Cut McCain promised them.
Posted by: Ken | Jul 25, 2008 10:20:02 AM
If Sen. Obama had been running for office say, 30 years ago when the MSM did whatever they wanted none of this would have ever gotten out. Remember how they covered up JFK's serial infidelities? But the MSM is dying out fast and there are www sites out there with more readership than many major city newspapers and so the efforts by the MSM to anoint Obama messiah will fall flat. As long as Sen. Obama keeps talking the hole gets deeper and more folks everyday are seeing that the Senator is simply not up to the job.
Posted by: John the Fierce | Jul 23, 2008 7:06:47 PM
He's looking more and more like Bush every day. That media-generated image of him being intellectual is beginning to flake off. When I count to three it is time to wake up. One ... you are waking up. Two... You are awake. Three.... Wide awake, totally alert, refreshed and relaxed. Who the heck is that NAKED MAN? Well I'll be darned! The EMPORER HAS NO CLOTHES!
Posted by: Deborah C | Jul 23, 2008 3:10:04 PM
"If Obama doesn't win, chances are he will be Senator for... 10 years!
Perhaps he is just showing some humility by implying if he doesn't win the election, he will still be dealing with these issues for 10 years as a Senator."
Posted by: Ryan | Jul 21, 2008 4:12:31 PM
Ryan, didn't you get the memo? Obama isn't a senator any more.
From his news conference of July 2, 2008:
"I wasn't saying anything I hadn't said before, that I didn't say a year ago or when I was a United States senator."
Posted by: creeper | Jul 22, 2008 8:31:41 PM
It'll probably take him every minute of his 8-10 years in office to visit all 57 states.
Posted by: Killer of Giants | Jul 22, 2008 12:00:27 PM
The hope and change candidate us showing his true colors. The hope is in government and the change is toward communism.
Whatever happened to the soveriengty of the individual that this country was founded on?
Posted by: arielsadmirer | Jul 22, 2008 10:20:39 AM
Arrogant Obama.
I am totally embarrassed of Obama and what he stands for.
This is the first time in my life that as a Democrat, I will not be supporting our Party.
Obama has such poor credentials and associates, I can't be proud of him.
Actually, my whole community is embarrassed of him.
Posted by: Al from NJ | Jul 22, 2008 5:26:29 AM
Obama has such a cocky attitude.
How dare he act as if he's already the President.
He's a two year senator and a Chicago politician.
Posted by: Al from NJ | Jul 22, 2008 5:18:16 AM
This guy is such a wannabe. He really hasn't done anything to merit serious credibility as a president. Having three anchors follow him around? They must be bored out of their minds! Will they have the guts to admit the "emperor has no clothes?"
Posted by: JKIR | Jul 21, 2008 11:48:04 PM
How about the comment that we are losing in Afghanistan?"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And wasn't Obama in charge of a committee to which he gave the attention of a gnat.... which was CENTERED on Afghanistan?
How does he get away with such stuff?
How come he still doesn't know how many states there are in our Union?
Oh... I remember!....
He's young and green!
Posted by: between the ears | Jul 21, 2008 7:51:00 PM
YAY!!!!!
GECKOBEAR!!!!
Posted by: eyes wide open | Jul 21, 2008 7:43:45 PM
If Obama doesn't win, chances are he will be Senator for... 10 years!
Perhaps he is just showing some humility by implying if he doesn't win the election, he will still be dealing with these issues for 10 years as a Senator.
Posted by: Ryan | Jul 21, 2008 4:12:31 PM
I agree with Chris | Jul 20, 2008 5:10:33 PM. I think some people just take Obama so literally.
Posted by: Kim | Jul 21, 2008 4:01:03 PM
"It is the weirdest image of a man running for President since Nader."
-----
Does Nader have a weird image? He lacks the wife-and-kiddies prop, and his suits probably cost about 5% as much as Senator Zero's . . . but is that weird?
Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 2:20:24 PM
"as if he were some sort of fragile doll both mentally and physically needing protection from the world."
-----
Like a slightly-feeble-minded teen-aged girl.
Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 2:03:45 PM
"NO candidate has ever needed so much "protection"/press assistance/rewrites/explanations."
No and that is his peculiar aura: as if he were some sort of fragile doll both mentally and physically needing protection from the world. Maybe butterfly is right because he is definitely living in a cushy coccoon.
It is the weirdest image of a man running for President since Nader.
Posted by: len | Jul 21, 2008 1:52:09 PM
"He IS the chosen one to bring this country out of the neocons rule and into the light as a beacon of hope for the rest of the world."
The Chosen One? Well at least his messiah credentials are still being touted.
"He IS the one that will end war. He will bring all sides together and talk like adults. See what they want and give it to them"
Yep, I agree that he'll help wipe Israel off the face of the earth too. Since that's what they want, and he'll give it to them. Will we let them kill the Jews, or move them somewhere after obliterating their country?
"He IS the one that will change Washington and get rid of these idiotic republicans and their backwoods backwards ways. Fire them all."
Yeah, once there's a Democrat majority things will change, like after 2006 with the Democratic Majority... nothing changed. Oops?
But he will remove Republicans from power without asking the electorate I guess. Good to know he'll take absolute power and end Democracy in favor of totalitarian rule... or is that not what you meant?
"He IS the one that will bring us Progressives back into power and change this Constitution. Just like it was always intended to. We no longer need to hunt for food so we can ban and outlaw guns and their ammunition."
Right, who would need a gun to defend themselves from criminals or an overreaching Government. You should die waiting for the police like a good prole.
And he'll amend the Constitution, taking the Presidential role in the amendment process which is... nothing. As a Senator he can propose an Amendment, but the President has no role in Constitutional Amendments. He'd better get cracking before he's elected...
"He IS the one that will tax these oil companies to extinction."
HOORAY, subsistence farming and starvation for everyone. Stop the economy and go back to the dark ages.
Lets end agriculture and go back to family plots with no oil based machinery.
You first.
"He IS the one that will tax every corporation like they're supposed to be taxed.
So, they'll get taxed more, raise prices, and pass those taxes on to you. Good. I'd hate to have money that the government didn't take away from me. Finally the Government will take all my money. Will they give me back enough to live on if I ask nicely for some of my money?
"He IS the one that will give us free health care, the best in the world."
Like Canada. Waiting 18 months for a hip replacement is "the best in the world". But at least once you end the oil economy you'll have plenty of funds for this... wait, maybe not.
"He IS the one to forever make abortions legal and free."
Yep, even if an abortion fails and the child is born alive, he'll support your right to go ahead and kill the little bugger for living. Actually, he's already supported that.
And free? So a doctor's time, labor, and materials mean nothing; and you have every right to force them to work for you for free.
When did we enslave doctors? I didn't realize that if we want something, we can just force people to give it to us for free without being called thieves and crooks for that.
Can we make politicians, judges, and lawyers work for free first? We'll try doctors after we see how this works out.
Maybe you can. But that doesn't mean you should.
Posted by: Gekkobear | Jul 21, 2008 1:27:25 PM
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