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Barack Obama's Butterfly Effect

July 20, 2008 4:45 PM

Today on CBS's Face the Nation, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., in Afghanistan, told the paparazzi-pursued correspondent Lara Logan that "the objective of this trip was to have substantive discussions with people like President Karzai or Prime Minister Maliki or President Sarkozy or others who I expect to be dealing with over the next eight to 10 years.

"And it's important for me to have a relationship with them early, that I start listening to them now, getting a sense of what their interests and concerns are."

The notion that Obama will be dealing with world leaders for eighjt-to-ten years, possibly up through July 2018, suggests that either (a) he believes that not only will he be elected and re-elected, but the 22nd amendment will be repealed and he will be elected for a third term, OR (b) he was speaking casually and just meant two terms.

(I'm guessing b.)

There is a term in chaos theory describing the how infinitesmal variations of the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system.

Most of us are more familiar with the more common name for it: the butterfly effect.

The butterfly effect was introduced in Ray Bradbury's 1952 short story "A Sound of Thunder," when time travelers change the world beyond measure by accidentally killing a butterfly in prehistoric times.

Similarly, international diplomacy can be impacted by careless or glibly-chosen words. (Cue President Bush's "crusade" remarks.)

Some Democratic allies of Obama's are -- off the record -- concerned that the senator too often doesn't consider the potential butterfly effect of his diction.

Take his support for an "undivided Jerusalem,"  or his remarks about women seeking abortions when they're "feeling blue," which upset feminist leaders.

Or the media kerfuffle after his "refine my policies" presser.

On his press plane on July 5, after that incident, Obama said, "I’m surprised at how finely calibrated every single word was measured."

A reporter noted that that is precisely what happens with the president, he can change world affairs with one word, finely calibrating your words is what happens.

"Well, of course, no, I understand," Obama said. "But for me to say that I’m going to refine my policies, you know, I don’t think in anyway is inconsistent with prior statements and doesn’t change my strategic view that this war has to end and that I am going to end it as president."

This week Obama will have his words picked apart like never before, and it will be an international audience of not just opponents but actual enemies.

They will be watching and waiting to see if he kills any butterflies.

- jpt

July 20, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (212)

User Comments

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I find it funny when Obama speaks wrong there are excuses made for it, but if McCain mis-speaks he is called old , losing his mind!

But the problem is Obama is not mis-speaking he is flopping!!

Obama FlipFlop Obama makes a good tune!!

What religion was Obama before he converted to Christianity, anybody know?

Posted by: spock | Jul 21, 2008 1:16:07 PM

everywhere b.o. travels a basketball game breaks out. his advisors must be some obscure round ball team. i guess that's safer than letting him say anything unscripted, he can't dribble and watch his blackberry at the same time. who knows, maybe this will keep him from being DISTRACTED with IRAQ, even after our heros' are kicking ass there. GOD BLESS THE U.S. TROOPS.

Posted by: pappy | Jul 21, 2008 1:12:42 PM

When a Republican makes a verbal gaffe, its called a gaffe! When Obama does it the DBM writes a hilarious essay about the butterfly effect. This is pretty simple--unscripted, Obama is as verbally skilled as Bush. He is a gaffe machine, probably because of his inexperience (I love the one about the 57 states). Dump the bias Jake and call it like it is!

Posted by: Don | Jul 21, 2008 1:00:13 PM

"True, but that is a cumulative effect, not a butterfly effect. The cumulative effect is arithmetic: 1 + 1 + 1 = Lose. A butterfly effect is 1 to the power log of the world press = self-destruct.
... I'm hard pressed to remember when a candidate has needed this much protection."

NO candidate has ever needed so much "protection"/press assistance/rewrites/explanations.

So: HAS he self-destructed yet? Or is there MORE to come?

Meanwhile, let's hope the press is as concerned about "racism" relative to Cynthia McKinney's campaign as it was with Barky's.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 12:35:28 PM

"John Insane McCain ain't no Douglas MacArthur or George Patton."

I dunno: give him a cigarette holder and a pearl-handled revolver and he'd be close -- closed than Barry/Barack is to JFK, anyway.

McCain won't be the Republican nominee: sickness or something will intervene -- then, according to who's the Democratic nominee (August), the Republicans will nominate (September) accordingly.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 12:27:25 PM

@belle: True, but that is a cumulative effect, not a butterfly effect. The cumulative effect is arithmetic: 1 + 1 + 1 = Lose. A butterfly effect is 1 to the power log of the world press = self-destruct.

He won't be allowed to mess up with the three anchors on the plane. Do note however that his campaign has a long history of suppressing his past mistakes (eg, The Surge Won't Work), scrubbing his language (removing the references on his web page), and denying access to unfriendlies.

I'm hard pressed to remember when a candidate has needed this much protection. JFK used to sneak out to the ice cream shop with his kids. Obama lives in a steel fishbowl.

Posted by: len | Jul 21, 2008 12:27:05 PM

The press filters his statements. They won't allow McCain to self-destruct. As with every gaffe made so far, it will be spun to his advantage by contextualizing it."

At a certain point, the confused crusader's "gaffes" add up to something more than verbal slips, jet lag, anti-alzheimers medication, dyslexia, etc.

With "we were distracted by Obama", critical mass may be here. WhatEVER Sean Hannity and the boys at FOX do.

As for butterflies, John Insane McCain ain't no Douglas MacArthur or George Patton.

Posted by: Belle is a Starr in Hell | Jul 21, 2008 12:20:09 PM

"The press filters his statements. They won't allow Obama to self-destruct. As with every gaffe made so far, it will be spun to his advantage by contextualizing it."

At a certain point, the confused crusader's "gaffes" add up to something more than verbal slips, jet lag, anti-smoking medication, dyslexia, etc.

With "we were distracted by Iraq", critical mass may be here. WhatEVER Jonathan Alter and the boys at MSNBC do.

As for butterflies, Barry/Barack ain't no Cassius Clay/Muhammed Ali.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 12:12:50 PM

Hmm... Complexity/chaos theory ...

The metaphor is right but second order and third order systems dampen feedback so the butterfly actually can't create hurricanes or even local storms. (This isn't from Bradbury, BTW. See Edward Lorenz.)

In unfiltered systems, the effects of such feedback are unpredictable. A typical result is to tear the system apart (reduce to chaos) much as pointing a microphone into the amplifier rips apart the speakers right after ripping apart your eardrums.

The press filters his statements. They won't allow Obama to self-destruct. As with every gaffe made so far, it will be spun to his advantage by contextualizing it.

Context is the reason butterflies haven't destroyed the planet so far.

Posted by: len | Jul 21, 2008 12:04:32 PM

"He will be elected and reelected, and like, South American dictators..."
-----
Not if he's not NOMINATED, he won't -- at least not in the DEMOCRATIC Party, where his "post-partisan" hokum is waaay out of place.

And his mideast pouffery's been QUITE zany . . .

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 11:45:05 AM

He will be elected and reelected, and like, South American dictators, he will hand pick his successor, who will do exactly what he is told until he has enough power of his own.

Or, he is already preparing us for the fact that he will be unsuccessful, and is not promising to do what he claims in two terms. Maybe he will use the "don't change horses in midstream" argument and suggest that we do away with the two-term limit so he can continue to lead us to victory.

Posted by: Doris | Jul 21, 2008 11:37:15 AM

"clean up this foreign policy mess"

Did the humble one "clean up" anything in Chicago? Nooo. Did he "clean up" anything in the US Senate (other than change his nuclear cleanup bill to Exelon specifications)? Nooo.

He's a charlatan with a big smile, a mob-arranged mansion, and a lot of money raised under false pretenses.

If the Democratic "leadership" installs this fraud as the nominee, the Dems are done.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 11:22:27 AM

Hussein already considered himself to be President. For 8 to 10 years he says. But this is the guy who said we have 57 states. Remember when the media made such fun of Dan Quayle because he added an E to potato? This doofus can say anything but thats ok.
He is a DEMOCRAT don't you know?

RW

Posted by: Ruth Werre | Jul 21, 2008 11:21:44 AM

How about the comment that we are losing in Afghanistan? I am sure that is what the troops there need to hear from a guy who wants to be President. Also, that is just what the doctor ordered for the families of those who have given the ultimate sacrifice in that conflict. Obama is a disgrace.

Posted by: Robert Marley | Jul 21, 2008 11:03:05 AM

Ah and so it goes..OBAMA is so easy to distract! DISTRACTED, OBAMA's OFTEN USED WORD. All that guy has is words, hope and the ability to change his mind often!

Posted by: HP Boston | Jul 21, 2008 11:02:20 AM

"Is Obama planning on using the job of president as a stepping stone for ruler of the universe?"

Kind of like using the Illinois senate seat as a stepping-stone to the US Senate, which he's used only as a platform for running a "post-partisan" campaign for the DEMOCRATIC nomination.

Meanwhile, he still talks with his mouth full of food, slouches with Karzai, and says "me and Michelle".

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 10:46:46 AM


To put the Butterfly metaphor into perspective, Obama is a chrysalis and his handlers exposed Obama to soon and Obama will die from lack of maturation.

Obama needed at least another 10 years in his chrysalis...

No butterfly perior for you Obama.

On the other hand, we have H.R. Clinton a true phoenix and she is in the process of rising again...

See you in Denver

Posted by: TerryDo | Jul 21, 2008 10:27:43 AM

Going back to the "57 states" gaffe, are we? I'm not about to read through ALL of these posts, but I would like to respond to that.

Bowing to the conspiracy theorists, there are indeed 57 ISLAMIC STATES worldwide.

Maybe those rumors of Obama secretly bein a Muslim aren't that far off, after all.

Whaddya think, eh?

Posted by: Nick in Virginia | Jul 21, 2008 10:27:33 AM

Meneither123-

So your criteria is that a guy just has to LOOK the part?

Is that a serious comment? A serious and informed citizeny is crucial.

Posted by: Trump | Jul 21, 2008 10:21:38 AM

"Stay tune for the august suprise"

Whatever it takes to keep this "post-partisan" fraud from buying the Democratic nomination.

"We were distracted by Iraq", opines the corporate construct who based his whole candidacy on having given a (pre-written) speech about Iraq while in the state Senate.

Posted by: Belle Starr | Jul 21, 2008 10:18:02 AM

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