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How Politically Risky Are Obama's Proposed Tax Hikes?

July 07, 2008 5:48 PM

Our friend Anne Mathias, an economist of the Stanford Group Company, has an interesting analysis of just who the top wage earners in the U.S. are -- and where they live.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has proposed raising a number of taxes. Most notably perhaps he has discussed allowing the Bush income tax cuts (that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., voted against but now supports) to expire. He says that Americans earning less than $250,000 per household will see their taxes cut, not raised.

Mathias points out that 95.1% of the American people are in households that earn less than $200,000 -- so overwhelmingly most Americans will not see their income taxes increased, if Obama's math is correct.

(That's not to say that raising taxes on the top 4.9% -- which is, after all, disproportionately the group who make the jobs -- makes economic sense, necessarily. We're just looking at numerically how risky this position is in terms of how many Americans it will affect. And of course the wealthiest also happen to often be the most powerful as well, so this can be a group it's risky to irritate. Plus, Obama has proposed raising other taxes, including capital gains and divided taxes. As well as Social Security taxes -- though, again, only for those earning more than $250,000 a year.)

There's another component to this -- check out this map, by Mathias, which is interesting:

Abc_map_080707_blog

The designated areas are the top 50 major city areas by income, transplanted on an electoral map of the U.S. from 2004 featuring red Bush states and blue Kerry states. (The information about the major city areas came from the Tax Foundation.)

As you can see, most of these top 50 major city areas, income-wise are either in blue blue blue states (California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, or New York) or red red red states (Alaska, Texas), with fewer in swing states (with some notable exceptions    such as Philadelphia, Penn., or West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Florida.)

Mathias' conclusion: Obama's proposed income tax increases are not very risky at all,   numerically speaking, in terms of number of voters or states he will impact. Overwhelmingly most Americans will not be touched, and the ones who will are largely in electorally decided states already.

- jpt

July 7, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (91)

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It is this type of political spending that got us in trouble. The rich (as defined by our president) is making over $250k. Are you kidding me? Based on what I can see, and the additional taxes I will have to pay. I will have to lay off 3 people that work for me. My gardener, housekeeper, and sec. Tell me again how this creates jobs? It just cost 3, and many more to come. Not to mention, with the increase in Capital gains, I am not willing to pay the additional rate. Thus, the $3MM we average in buying and selling properly, will come to an end. Costing even more jobs. We pay contractors about $500K per year on fix up and such. The way I see it, we will lose another 6-11% of the work force before we see a turn around.

And one can only imagine that with the decrease in tax revenue that the government will get, the Dems will want to again raise taxes.

Maybe they should look at the law of diminishing returns. Yes, increase the tax rate, and the amount of tax collected actually decreases. This is bad..... bad.. bad.. .bad.

Posted by: Sean | Feb 27, 2009 12:39:05 PM

Quite, simply put another liberal politician(Obama)trying to disguise his social platform as needed change. What we are seeing is classic class envy and wealth redistribution of our country's hardest working businesses and individuals. America will never maintain it's greatness, if all we choose to do is reward mediocrity and laziness.

Posted by: C.T. | Oct 28, 2008 3:26:16 AM

For people who think Obama and the tax hikes are good for America look at Britain where Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and his ilk have systematically destroyed the country with red tape, huge tax increases, stealth taxes and 'free stuff' for the poor. What has h.appened is low productivity, everyone pays more. Anyone who can is leaving (I did) to live in a country where I am not systematically cleaned out. Florida appeals because its relatively low tax. Raise them to European levels and all the higher earners and job CREATORS will leave. What will be the result - huge numbers of jobs lost, less tax overall paid and a deep depression. Learn from socialist Europe - it DOES Not work unless you are already poor and never intend to work. So let us all PAY for the lazy bums who dont want to work and vote for the socialist regime! The grass is not always greener on the other side.

Posted by: Mark | Sep 4, 2008 12:49:30 PM

When they finally get around to taking the cap off of Social Security taxes, I fully expect them to raise the rate as well.

But you can't tax you way out of the Social Security problem.

Total liabilities $66,000,000,000,000.00
Total assets in US $59,000,000,000,000.00
.. and shrinking

Posted by: Neo | Jul 26, 2008 3:05:11 PM

High marginal rates, especially if the "payroll tax" of 12.6% is added on the top will discourage job creation. Even the "socialist" Europeans quietly backed down their top rates. Under Clinton, the top marginal rate was less than 40%. The state tax rate gets added on top of this. The states with the largest job creation such as Texas have zero or very low income tax rates. The evacuees from Katrina have landed jobs in Texas.

Posted by: Josh | Jul 20, 2008 10:56:26 PM

Everyone who pays income taxes will pay more if Obama is elected by the simple fact that will not renew the tax cuts from 2003, in which every income bracket had a cut. Therefore everybody's taxes will go up. McCain has promised to renew the 2003 reduced rates.

Posted by: Gary | Jul 11, 2008 4:28:29 PM

I make under 25,000 a year and was recently laid off and received $3600 serverence pay and with taxes taken out cleared $2228.00 that is 40% so multiply that by 52 oh yeah the rich don't pay..RIGHT...

Posted by: Larry | Jul 9, 2008 10:28:32 AM

Another front until he changes his mind. Again. I guess that's what the change mantra was all about, Obama being able to flip flop in important decisions and calling it change instead of flip flopping!

Posted by: ctjd | Jul 9, 2008 9:30:43 AM

I am all for Obama's tax plan. Can't wait to see the rich start paying their fair share.

Posted by: becky | Jul 7, 2008 5:59:27 PM


The rich will still be ahead of the game. If Obama eliminates those tax cut they simply revert by to when Clinton was in office. Plus the rich still have 7 - 8 years worth of cash from those cuts. So future tax liabilities will be paid from some of that money.

Posted by: brigitte | Jul 8, 2008 11:48:59 PM

Robert, so you are saying a single individual who earns $50,000,000 and pays $17,478,597 in federal income tax isn't paying his fair share? If this individual lives in NY he would pay an additional $3,847,453 in state income tax. That would be a total of $21,326,050 or 42.65% of his income in federal and state income tax. And that doesn't even include his property taxes.

The truth is the top 25% of the nation's wage earners, pay 86% of the total federal income tax revenue. THAT IS MORE THAN A FAIR SHARE!

Posted by: James Danley | Jul 8, 2008 10:07:15 PM

Most Americans don't understand taxation, especially how the different income categories are taxed. Basically, everyone pretty much gets taxed at around the same rate, up until it hits a 'tax ceiling' of about $200,000. After that, no further tax is levied. So an earner making $200k is taxed at the same rate as someone making 50 million dollars. What winds up happnening, is a shortfall in federal revenue because the guy who made 50 million didn't pay his fair share of the tax, and it winds up coming out of everyone else's pockets in the form of.. you guessed it.. higher taxes. Bought off politicians typically employ doublespeak and misinformation to convince voters that none of this can be true.. but it most certainly is the truth: one need only pick up any IRS tax booklet and look at the tax tables to witness the horror for themselves.

Posted by: Robert | Jul 8, 2008 8:12:44 PM

Senator Obama bragged about his Mom getting food stamps so she could afford to send him to a expensive private school. This was after she should have earned a degree and been able to find a job. Is this socialism or not??? I think that is what Obama wants for a few selected Americans. With all his new hand-outs proposed, somebody has to pay the bill and that will be everyone, not just those making over $250,000 a year. Remember, the federal tax on gasoline, cable TV, telephone, and a thousand hidden federal taxes. We pay taxes when we don't realize we are paying taxes.

Posted by: Mary | Jul 8, 2008 2:26:10 PM

Shegirl, with all due respect, you have that backwards. The poor and the middle class have been brainwashed by the socialists into believing that the "wealthy" owe them everything. The socialists don't really care about the poor and the middle class. Instead the socialists only care about gaining and maintaining their own power over the poor and the middle class at the expense of the "wealthy."

Posted by: James Danley | Jul 8, 2008 1:59:17 PM

Sweden is one of the most generous welfare states. The Swedes enjoy "free" public schooling; "free" university schooling; health care at "nominal" fees; "free" medicine after an annual expenditure (one source has approximately $150); generous pensions, unemployment benefits; sick leave; highly subsidized child care; senior citizen care; even theater and other leisure activities; and the list goes on... With a population of just over 9 million people Sweden is able to provide these "free" entitlements because EVERYONE pays about 60% of their earnings in taxes (combined income tax, payroll tax and value-added taxes).

So here we have Sen. Obama who wants to provide a laundry list of new "free" entitlements for Americans. The problem is Sen. Obama says that he wants only about 5 million people to pay for these new "free" entitlements for our country of over 300 million people. Even if the top 5 million wage earners paid 100% of their income in federal income taxes it WILL NOT pay for all of these new entitlements.

Posted by: James Danley | Jul 8, 2008 1:22:25 PM

As I said during the primary battle, Obama's economic plan can be summed up in two words: MORE TAXES.

Obama's plan to fix Social Security--Raise Taxes.

Obama's plan to fix Medicare--Raise Taxes.

Obama's plan to provide prescription drugs--Raise Taxes.

Obama's plan to provide reduced or free college tuition--Raise Taxes.

Obama's plan to generate greener energy--Raise Taxes.

And, the list goes on and on and on...

Posted by: Jayhawk | Jul 8, 2008 12:23:29 PM

Nice try getting us to believe there will be NO net affect of allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire and raising taxes on the 4.9% of the population. Nice try. No cigar. We aren't stupid out here in fly over country, ABC. We KNOW this will affect EVERYONE in some form or fashion. The return of a $500 per child tax credit (from what is now $1000.00 per child) is a biggie that will affect EVERY family w/kids out there that files a tax return...and that's just the beginning of the affects. They are too numerous to list on this reply box.

Posted by: Ang | Jul 8, 2008 11:14:54 AM

How can America trust anything he says?

Obama has a new program starting just about every week and our taxes will have to pay for them.

Look at his past--enormous earmarks and millions of dollars spent on his pet projects. Some going to his wife's employer and millions to his shady pastor friends.

Posted by: cindy in nc | Jul 8, 2008 11:13:16 AM

HP Boston, sorry but your income tax liabilities are totally incorrect.

You have taken the total income (after deductions & exemptions) that falls within a particular tax bracket and multiplied that by the FULL percentage for that tax bracket. EXAMPLE: For 2008 the single individual making $75,000, you assessed the full 25% of the $75,000 to get $18,750 for the tax liability. It does not work that way.

In reality, that single individual will pay:
10% up to $8,025;
15% between $8,025-$32,550;
25% between $32,550-$78,850.
The actual tax liability would be $15,094.

Here are the true tax liabilities for your graphics (married couples filing jointly):

McCAIN (no changes) -- 2008 tax rates:
Single making 30K - tax $4,099
Single making 50K - tax $8,844
Single making 75K - tax $15,094
Married making 60K- tax $8,198
Married making 75K - tax $11,438
Married making 125K - tax 23,938

OBAMA -- 2000 tax rates
(reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $4,988
Single making 50K - tax $10,588
Single making 75K - tax $17,931
Married making 60K - tax $11,100
Married making 75K - tax $15,300
Married making 125K - tax $29,871

Posted by: James Danley | Jul 8, 2008 10:07:26 AM

If Obama takes away Pres. Bushe's tax cuts, that is raising taxes, see when you lower something then raise - that is raising the taxes, that means an average family of 4 making 50,000 dollars a year will pay 3,000 dollars more in taxes under Obama!!

That is a TAX HIKE for everyone, also those who are tax exempt under 20,000 will start paying because the level will change that under 13,000 will only be exempt!!

Posted by: spock | Jul 8, 2008 9:56:42 AM

Obama's tax hikes are all political posturing and campaign pillow-talk. For the most part, things will continue on as they are (not that they aren't already broken). All presidents' abilities are limited (or kept in check) by the cooperation of Congress.

Congress...they are the biggest road-blocks to tax reform (and pretty much forward progress) - which is what we need the most. A national retail sales tax would fix our economy; not tax hikes. A bill for it has been introduced to the H.O.R. several times, but it is never allowed to come up for a vote. There is one out there right now sitting and rotting in the house.

If you want a real solution to our economic problems ask your representatives to even allow a vote on HR 25.

Posted by: WH | Jul 8, 2008 9:47:38 AM

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