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How Politically Risky Are Obama's Proposed Tax Hikes?

July 07, 2008 5:48 PM

Our friend Anne Mathias, an economist of the Stanford Group Company, has an interesting analysis of just who the top wage earners in the U.S. are -- and where they live.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, has proposed raising a number of taxes. Most notably perhaps he has discussed allowing the Bush income tax cuts (that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., voted against but now supports) to expire. He says that Americans earning less than $250,000 per household will see their taxes cut, not raised.

Mathias points out that 95.1% of the American people are in households that earn less than $200,000 -- so overwhelmingly most Americans will not see their income taxes increased, if Obama's math is correct.

(That's not to say that raising taxes on the top 4.9% -- which is, after all, disproportionately the group who make the jobs -- makes economic sense, necessarily. We're just looking at numerically how risky this position is in terms of how many Americans it will affect. And of course the wealthiest also happen to often be the most powerful as well, so this can be a group it's risky to irritate. Plus, Obama has proposed raising other taxes, including capital gains and divided taxes. As well as Social Security taxes -- though, again, only for those earning more than $250,000 a year.)

There's another component to this -- check out this map, by Mathias, which is interesting:

Abc_map_080707_blog

The designated areas are the top 50 major city areas by income, transplanted on an electoral map of the U.S. from 2004 featuring red Bush states and blue Kerry states. (The information about the major city areas came from the Tax Foundation.)

As you can see, most of these top 50 major city areas, income-wise are either in blue blue blue states (California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, or New York) or red red red states (Alaska, Texas), with fewer in swing states (with some notable exceptions    such as Philadelphia, Penn., or West Palm Beach-Boca Raton, Florida.)

Mathias' conclusion: Obama's proposed income tax increases are not very risky at all,   numerically speaking, in terms of number of voters or states he will impact. Overwhelmingly most Americans will not be touched, and the ones who will are largely in electorally decided states already.

- jpt

July 7, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (91)

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Under Obama everything will be free, so why would anyone work? And certainly, why would anyone work harder than they already do in order to elevate themselves to earning over $250,000? Why would anyone gamble on starting a business that (egads!!) might grow into multi-million dollar company employing thousands of workers? Where's the incentive? The government will take care of all of us by taking from those filthy rich people who don't deserve what they've earned. Chill out! Good times!

Posted by: HoosierSue | Jul 8, 2008 8:59:13 AM

Obama has made so many promises, lied so many times that he doesn't know what he stands for other than 'change.' Look it up, people. Change doesn't necessarily mean for the better. And a tax increase is a change for the worse.
OBAMA = CHANGE = NO GOOD.

MCCAIN in '08 !!!

Posted by: Luke | Jul 8, 2008 8:17:48 AM

Frankly, I don't care how POLITICALLY risky his tax increases are. Tax increases are the LAST thing Americans need right now. I knew this was coming---how else would Obama pay for all his promises of change like giveaways, student loans with 0% interest, welfare and aid for the unemployed and poor urban areas, free health insurance for low-income families, etc. etc. etc. etc.

Posted by: Maria | Jul 8, 2008 8:07:01 AM

The only reason Obama gave an anti-war speech is because he was in front of an anti-war crowd. If he was giving a speech in Iran, he would be denouncing the US. Look at his associations. The anti-war terrorist associates like William Ayers and Rev. Wright. What do you expect him to do? After all, representing South side Chicago, what political risks he carried making that speech? He once said that there is no difference between his position and Bush's position. What about that?

He is a political opportunist and a conniving politician who gives typical politicians a bad name.

Posted by: Roger Miller | Jul 8, 2008 7:49:47 AM

Obama is a petty politician who will do what is good for him politically. It doesn't matter what he says now because he says now "what is politically expedient now". The new politics is to use your words every way possible without having a track record of anything.

The pundits who extol his virtues are either down right partisan hacks or the same fools who would buy Hitler's propaganda.

Posted by: Roger Miller | Jul 8, 2008 7:39:28 AM

Promises broken and he isn’t even the President yet. “I pledge to use public financing if elected the nominee” now the nominee he says it is a broken system (however it was the same system a few months earlier when he pledged to use it); He said he would filibuster an electronic wiretapping bill and now he has abandoned his vow; he formally announces that he wants to funnel public money for social spending to religious-based organizations (breaking the First Amendment of the constitution). He as criticized the Supreme Court’s decisions; He has changed his views on abortion, he is redefining Iraq planning a quick trip to Iraq to discuss with the generals but says he has not changed his time tables of removing the troops, so I guess it doesn’t matter what the generals say, so what is the point of the trip? Where does he stand on NAFTA, Gun Control as apparently he has changed his views here too? These tireless and continuous flip-flops, the tireless and continuous renouncing and disassociations, the tireless and continuous rhetoric of downing America is really getting old. America just didn’t happen. It was work and effort and lost lives to secure security and freedom. It needs work to continue to be great it does not need change to join the rest of the world ---you know “eat less, heat your homes less, live on less as the rest of the world does not like us” Obama’s philosophy. Expect changes with Obama at the helm, you bet, taxes and taxes and taxes and higher and more control government.

Posted by: Anne | Jul 8, 2008 7:32:39 AM

I now know why I am VOTING McCain!


Proposed changes in taxes after 2008 General election:

CAPITAL GAINS TAX

MCCAIN
0% on home sales up to $500,000
per home (couples) McCain does not
propose any change in existing
home sales income tax.

OBAMA
28% on profit from ALL home sales

How does this affect you?
If you sell your home and make a profit, you
will pay 28% of your gain on taxes.
If you are heading toward retirement
and would like to down-size your
home or move into a retirement
community, 28% of the money you
make from your home will go to taxes. This
proposal will adversely affect the
elderly who are counting on the income
from their homes as part of their retirement income.

DIVIDEND TAX

MCCAIN 15% (no change)

OBAMA 39.6%

How will this affect you?
If you have any money invested in stock
market, IRA, mutual funds,
college funds, life insurance, retirement
accounts, or anything that pays
or reinvests dividends, you will now
be paying nearly 40% of the money
earned on taxes if Obama become president.
The experts predict that ‘higher
tax rates on dividends and capital gains
would crash the stock market yet
do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.

INCOME TAX

MCCAIN (no changes)

Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250

OBAMA
(reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750

Under Obama your taxes will
more than double!
How does this affect you? No explanation
needed. This is pretty
straight forward.

INHERITANCE TAX

MCCAIN 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)

OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax

How does this affect you? Many families
have lost businesses,
farms and ranches, and homes
that have
been in their families
for generations because they could not
afford the inheritance tax.
Those willing their assets to loved
ones will not only lose them to
these taxes.

NEW TAXES BEING PROPOSED BY OBAMA

* New government taxes proposed on
homes that are more than
2400 square feet

* New gasoline taxes (as if
gas weren’t high enough already)

* New taxes on natural resources
consumption (heating
gas, water, electricity)

AVOID THE PAIN VOTE MCCAIN!

Posted by: HP Boston | Jul 8, 2008 7:10:44 AM

The McCain team just came out with 300 Republicans experts on the economy. We have Robert Reich fighting for Obama and making the news. Robert is very effective on the Sunday talk shows. The Democrats should come out with 304 Democrat and Independent experts to show McCain's Team that we mean business!

Posted by: Bob E | Jul 8, 2008 6:49:35 AM


Obama=tax and spent liberal.

Posted by: ROBERT | Jul 8, 2008 2:10:06 AM

Does Obama have any credibility on any issue including the Iraq war? Obama has zero credibility.

I will not listen to what Obama says. I look at what he does. Congratulations to the democratic party for finding their own Nixon.

Posted by: Roger Miller | Jul 8, 2008 2:06:04 AM

Rhys wrote:

""Thinking", we have butted heads before, but let me assure you that an income for a married couple of $100,000 does NOT make us rich... maybe it would have in 1950, but not today. And, starting in 2010, our state will continue to take 11% while the Feds will revert to 36%, leaving us approximately half of our income."

That's flat wrong, and makes one wonder if you really pay taxes at all. Your average tax today (married, filing jointly) would be about 17% (considering the tax brackets). When the Bush tax cuts expire (and the top bracket, your tax burden will go up to about 23% total. That's not counting even standard deductions, child tax credits, etc. At 100k per year, you don't even hit the two top tax brackets.

Is it any wonder that conservatives have no credibility these days? Find some honesty.

Posted by: JTS | Jul 8, 2008 1:34:15 AM

Watch inflation grow! Since the "rich" are like everyone else and have financial obligations, when they have to pay more taxes they will be forced to raise prices(the rich usually are business owners). They also own 2nd homes and if they can't afford them the housing market will get another crushing blow. What's wrong with being rich?

Posted by: Brian | Jul 8, 2008 1:14:31 AM

Yeah! Them Democrats always want to raise taxes. It kills my drive to do hard work. Last year I made a million bucks, but if Obama gets in I might has well sit on my butt 'cause it'll all go to taxes anyway. Anything less than a million ain't worth my time.

Posted by: Jimmy Jenius | Jul 8, 2008 1:10:58 AM

our tax system at present protects the wealthy, and gives them tax breaks with the theory that the trickle down affect will take place--however since trade agreements small business is being wiped out by the superstore business who buy from china---loss of small business destroys tax base as they have been the ones paying majority of taxes thru income and jobs----big business has benifitted with windfall profits.now our country has serious problems--these countries are destroying us from within along with big business and their tax breaks.

Posted by: rodney | Jul 7, 2008 9:16:12 PM

*******************************

Americans should those know republican policies didn't work under Reagan, Bush 1 or the shrub Bush 2. Average americans are always exploited to give more to the rich, powerful people and corporations.

Why hasn't anybody asked mccain why he still wants to give big oil companies billions of taxpayers dollars even though they are making billions in record profits?

Posted by: brigitte | Jul 8, 2008 1:04:29 AM

The map is really worthless. The critical fact to gauge the political risk is wherea are those who make over 250k. The top 50 average incomes tell us nothing about where the 250k people live. It might well be that these people are evenly distributed. If one city has an average income of 45k a year and another city is 40k a year, does it really extrapolate to a similar portion of 250k earners? Not necessarily.

Posted by: JTS | Jul 8, 2008 12:46:57 AM

When Obama says he is not going to raise taxes, he may be telling the truth, but not the WHOLE truth.

He doesn't have to DO anything! Bush's tax cuts, which affect EVERYONE, will expire in two years... automatically.

Unless they are extended, which is VERY unlikely, our taxes will revert to what they were before Bush became President.

So when Obama says he "won't raise taxes", my wife and I already know our taxes will double in 2010, because the two of us have a combined income of just over $100,000, and to a Democrat, this means we are rich, and should be taxed the same as Bill Gates, Donald Trump, or Warren buffet.

Obama needs to tell the REST of the story!

Posted by: Rhys | Jul 7, 2008 8:31:56 PM

**********************

Are you smart enough to realize the Iraq war is taxing you and every other american more than any tax increase ever imposed? Americans are paying for it everyday from high gas and food prices to the national debt as a result. So please get a clue before you spew your nonsense.

Posted by: brigitte | Jul 8, 2008 12:46:52 AM

Nick B, the source is the Treasury Department, October 2007.

Posted by: James Danley | Jul 7, 2008 11:58:46 PM

No it is not an American agenda. Obama has marxist ideas. He has no clue and never says how he will pay for all these dreams.

Posted by: carolyn
***************************************
What are you nuts? Obama has very specific plans and has laid them out very well for economists as well as for the thinking segment of the population

Posted by: Eileen From Maine | Jul 7, 2008 11:08:26 PM

"the fact is Obama intends to legislate a 60 percent tax bracket for upper-income Americans, killing all initiative and innovation."

This made me laugh. The top income earners don't innovate anything, they pay people in China to do that while our engineers lose thier jobs.

Posted by: Jim | Jul 7, 2008 11:05:53 PM

Eight long years of Republican incompetence, corruption, and failure.

Failure at everything they've touched.

Haven't you Republicans punished America enough?

Why do you hate America so much?

Posted by: wilder5121 | Jul 7, 2008 10:22:36 PM

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