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Obama on the Surge: "Had Those Political Factors Not Occurred, I Think That My Assessment Would Have Been Correct"

July 22, 2008 1:56 AM

"I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence" in Iraq, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, said in January 2007. "In fact, I think it will do the reverse."

In Baghdad yesterday, after a day spent witnessing the reduction in violence in Iraq, Obama was asked by ABC News' Terry Moran if he was wrong..

"Here is what I will say," Obama said, "I think that, I did not anticipate, and I think that this is a fair characterization, the convergence of not only the surge but the Sunni awakening in which a whole host of Sunni tribal leaders decided that they had had enough with Al Qaeda, in the Shii’a community the militias standing down to some degrees. So what you had is a combination of political factors inside of Iraq that then came right at the same time as terrific work by our troops. Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct."

Obama went on to say "the fact is that there was a combination, I think. Look, the troops and General Petreaus and Ambassador Crocker deserve enormous credit for that and that is credit that I have given publicly. And I will say, again this is the danger of politics is that I can probably show you a couple of other quotes, in which I said 'Look, whenever you put US soldiers on the ground, in those particular areas, they are going to have an impact.' So it wasn’t any doubt that you have an additional 20 thousand troops and where they are right there it is going to have an impact."

"Well, you were saying that it would not make a significant dent in the violence," Moran said.

"In the violence in Iraq overall, right," Obama acknowledged. "So the point that I was making at the time was that the political dynamic was the driving force between that sectarian violence. And we could try to keep a lid on it,  but if these underlining dynamic continued to bubble up and explode the way they were, then we would be in a difficult situation. I am glad that in fact those political dynamic shifted at the same time that our troops did outstanding work."

Moran asked what Iraq would look like now if Obama's policy of withdrawing in the face of the violence had been implemented.

"That is a hard thing to speculate," Obama said, "The Sunnis might have made the same decisions at that time. The Shii’as might have made some similar decisions based on political calculation. There was ethnic cleansing in Baghdad that actually took the violence level down. And so, as I said before. Nobody has a crystal ball. If we did you just hire the guy with the crystal ball."

Obama maintained that his decision was not wrong. "In the meantime we have spent an additional 200-to-300 billion dollars. The situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated, by every measure. Al Qaeda is still running loose, right. So the problem with these debates is that, if you focus narrowly on the tactics inside of Iraq then you get one perspective. If on the other hand, your job, which I believe is the president's job, is to make a series of difficult choices and calculations about what is going to lead to our long term security then you get a different perspective. What I've been trying to push throughout this campaign is for that broader view."

Obama continued: "And listen, here is something that I probably don't say often enough. John McCain doesn't want to see us take a wrong strategy when it comes to fighting the war on Terror. I think John McCain wants to see America safe just like I do. And so I respect his best judgments in many of these issues, but I think it's important to recognize that on the majority of issues that we've faced in terms of foreign policy, not just over the past 4 years but over the past 6, 7 years that my batting average is pretty darn good."

If you had to do it over again, Moran asked, knowing what you know now, would you support the surge?

"No," Obama said. "These kinds of hypotheticals are very difficult. Hindsight is 20/20. But I think that what I am absolutely convinced of is at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with and one that I continue to disagree with is to look narrowly at Iraq and not focus on these broader issues."

- jpt

July 22, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (90)

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"Just Say Nobama."

Posted by: vanderleun | Jul 23, 2008 3:05:08 PM

"Just Say Nobama."

Posted by: vanderleun | Jul 23, 2008 3:04:29 PM

The Iraq operation was an
outright medieval style
invasion. It was undertaken
believing the task would be
easy. After Operation Desert
Storm the country was severely
degraded and struggling.

This was an example of a
predator seeking a weak prey.

It was not about 9/11, Al Qaeda,
WMDs, Saddam Hussein or even
the prospect of cheap oil.

It was to show the Islamic
world we are in Iraq to stay
and there's nothing they can
do about it.

Posted by: anon | Jul 23, 2008 11:42:43 AM

Thank you networks for giving Obama a microphone. While I believe the Repubs have not earned another 4 years in the White House it is very difficult for me to want to listen to Obama for another 4 (8?) years. When you speak clearly and know what you believe in (McCain) the story stays the same and you are willing to admit your mistakes. When you only want to get elected (Obama)they are subject to frequent change and revision.

Posted by: Tom Paine | Jul 23, 2008 10:50:12 AM

First it's that the US has lost the war in Iraq. Then the surge will never work. Then OK, maybe the surge has worked, but not the political solution. Then "I didn't expect the political factors to work (or something like that)." Then the Surge only worked because the US passed money around to the leaders. THIS GOBBLEDEGOOK IS JUST UNBELIEVABLE - THANKS LIBS FOR NOT BEING AROUND IN World War 11.

Posted by: Temagami | Jul 23, 2008 6:52:06 AM

"Had those political factors not occurred, I think that my assessment would have been correct." How many politicians said same things after they messed up? Remind me, what was his main qualification for presidency. Superior judgment?

Posted by: Mladen | Jul 23, 2008 6:46:05 AM

The Surge CREATED THE CONDITIONS for THE "POLITICAL FACTORS" to occur. Obama is struggling.

Posted by: Manitu | Jul 23, 2008 6:41:22 AM

Yea, the surge worked alright, the MONEY SURGE, which is what we are PAYING the sunnis and shiites to cooperate.
If Muqtada S had not ordered his guys to stand down the causualties would be mounting terribly (you read how many so far?). Somebody must have promised him a lot for that but he better not trust anybody, shiite, sunni or US. We'll sell him down the river in a heartbeat.

When all the smoke clears, you can believe Muqtada won't be around; he'll be up there somewhere enjoying his ten virgins

As for McCain, while commendable, his five years as a pow doesn't qualify him as a military genius. There was another pilot that was a pow for eight years, it seems, that makes no such claims. He has done some flip-flops and tap dancing around issues too.

Posted by: all | Jul 23, 2008 12:20:04 AM

does anyone really expect anything more of bho than arrogance on any level?

Posted by: tr | Jul 22, 2008 11:07:08 PM

The Anbar Awakening began in September of 2006 - before the elections. Obama and the dems cannot claim that they had any influence there. If this guy wants to be CIC he'd better learn how to give the troops more than mush-mouth praise. He is not exactly filling me with confidence that he knows what the hell he's about. I keep thinking of Robert Redford in The Candidate. My hope in Obama is gone.

Posted by: mari | Jul 22, 2008 10:13:43 PM

What happened to this post? KGB?

Posted by: Manitu | Jul 22, 2008 10:08:25 PM

Tom

Excellent Post!! Now that was a prime example of INDUCTIVE REASONING!!

Posted by: Temagami | Jul 22, 2008 7:24:03 PM

Pete

Pretty lousey inductive reasoning if you consider those support statements.

Posted by: Temagami | Jul 22, 2008 7:09:18 PM

Pete

Nice try but that is pure BS.

Posted by: Jimbo | Jul 22, 2008 7:05:33 PM

Lets see... I guess the libs are now going to say that the success of the Surge is a "LIE!!" Remember, "PEOPLE DIED WHEN BUSH LIED?" SAME BS.

Posted by: Manitu | Jul 22, 2008 7:03:09 PM

Obama thinks he was right for votin against the successful policy.

Sometimes hindsight is not 20/20, especially when it's clouded by egoracts.

Posted by: drjohn | Jul 22, 2008 6:58:04 PM

ABC interview with Obama was a disaster for him. After his "NO" re. would he reconsider his vote on surge, now knowing that it was a great success - he went into a monolog that left people wondering what the heck he was talking about. Even his tone was was weak as if unsure of himself.

Posted by: Temgami | Jul 22, 2008 6:55:06 PM

Let's see... he fails to agree that our troop surged worked in Iraq, by giving all the credit to the Iraqis, and yet he now wants to send a troop surge to Afghanistan. Why does he want to do that if thinks our men and women in uniform had nothing to with our victory? Does he want to get them killed, and then not credit them when credit is due?

This man is pathetic.

Posted by: Gary | Jul 22, 2008 5:45:19 PM

Perhaps the most dishonest statements I have heard from any Politician since Clinton denied Monica.

Posted by: Dennis D | Jul 22, 2008 5:30:17 PM

The so-called success of the surge really confuses me. I'm British and at the same time as the US was increasing troops in their areas, we were withdrawing troops in ours. Both areas have since seen a large reduction in violence.

The conclusion has to be that the surge itself did little and it is the overall political situation changing that has made the difference.

Posted by: Pete | Jul 22, 2008 3:45:09 PM

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