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The Success of the Surge Seemingly Puts Obama on the Defensive

July 15, 2008 2:22 PM

Though a majority of the American people support ending the war in Iraq and think the invasion was a mistake, Republicans have tried to put Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, into a box as he prepares for his first trip to Iraq since securing his party's presidential nomination.

Weeks ago, after Obama said he would be willing to listen to commanders in the ground to "refine" his policy, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Republicans said Obama was flip-flopping.

Then after Obama clarified that he is sticking by his plans to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq within 16 months, McCain and Republicans painted him as an intransigent partisan whose pending trip to Iraq is nothing more than a photo op.

"Senator Obama is departing soon on a trip abroad that will include a fact-finding mission to Iraq and Afghanistan," McCain said today at a town hall meeting in Albuquerque, "And I note that he is speaking today about his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before he has even left, before he has talked to General Petraeus, before he has seen the progress in Iraq, and before he has set foot in Afghanistan for the first time. In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: first you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy."

Another conundrum for Obama: the surge of US troops in Iraq having created a safer and more secure Baghdad, McCain can now (perhaps for the first time) point to an aspect of the war where he is able to argue that his judgment was superior to Obama's.

**

Obama seemed today a bit on the defensive on Iraq, as evidenced by edits Obama's campaign staff made to language on his campaign website decrying the surge as a failure, as well as a speech Obama delivered today in which he explained why the surge's success doesn't change his view of needing to withdraw U.S. forces in that country.

"For weeks, now, Senator McCain has argued that the gains of the surge mean that I should change my commitment to end the war," Obama said Tuesday morning in a speech at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, just blocks from the White House. "But this argument misconstrues what is necessary to succeed in Iraq, and stubbornly ignores the facts of the broader strategic picture that we face." 

In the 18 months since the surge began, Obama argued, "the strain on our military has increased, our troops and their families have borne an enormous burden, and American taxpayers have spent another $200 billion in Iraq" and "the situation in Afghanistan has deteriorated." Moreover, Obama argued, "Iraq’s leaders have not made the political progress that was the purpose of the surge. They have not invested tens of billions of dollars in oil revenues to rebuild their country. They have not resolved their differences or shaped a new political compact."

What Obama did not mention today was that the surge had succeeded in ways he did not think it would.

After President Bush discussed the surge in a speech in January 2007, Obama said on CNN that he "did not see anything in the speech or anything in the run-up to the speech that provides evidence that an additional 15,000 to 20,000 more U.S. troops is going to make a significant dent in the sectarian violence that's taking place there."

**

Not surprisingly, Obama on Tuesday again reminded voters where the two men stood on the war six years ago.

"I opposed going to war in Iraq; Senator McCain was one of Washington’s biggest supporters for war," Obama said. "I warned that the invasion of a country posing no imminent threat would fan the flames of extremism, and distract us from the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban; Senator McCain claimed that we would be greeted as liberators, and that democracy would spread across the Middle East. Those were the judgments we made on the most important strategic question since the end of the Cold War."

McCain has tried to focus not on that 2002 decision, but on the one five years later. The Republican paints himself as -- like Obama -- an opponent of the Bush administration's strategy for the war, but says he -- not Obama -- displayed better judgment on the decision to send more troops into Iraq.

"Over the last year," McCain said today, "Senator Obama and I were part of a great debate about the war in Iraq. Both of us agreed the Bush administration had pursued a failed strategy there and that we had to change course. Where Senator Obama and I disagreed, fundamentally, was what course we should take. I called for a comprehensive new strategy -- a surge of troops and counterinsurgency to win the war. Senator Obama disagreed. He opposed the surge, predicted it would increase sectarian violence, and called for our troops to retreat as quickly as possible."

McCain concluded that "today we know Senator Obama was wrong. The surge has succeeded. And because of its success, the next President will inherit a situation in Iraq in which America's enemies are on the run, and our soldiers are beginning to come home."

In his speech Obama found himself today responding to that focus.

"George Bush and John McCain don’t have a strategy for success in Iraq – they have a strategy for staying in Iraq," the Democrat said. "They said we couldn’t leave when violence was up, and they now say we can’t leave when violence is down.  They refuse to press the Iraqis to make tough choices, and they label any timetable to redeploy our troops 'surrender,' even though we would be turning Iraq over to a sovereign Iraqi government – not to a terrorist enemy."

Obama said that "at some point, a judgment must be made. Iraq is not going to be a perfect place, and we do not have unlimited resources to try to make it one. We are not going to kill every al Qaeda sympathizer, eliminate every trace of Iranian influence, or stand up a flawless democracy before we leave."

Over the weekend, as first reported by the New York Daily News, the Obama campaign website changed language from declaring "the surge is not working" to that which instead states:  "despite the improved security situation, the Iraqi government has not stepped forward to lead the Iraqi people and to reach the genuine political accommodation that was the stated purpose of the surge."

An older Obama campaign "fact sheet" from Fall 2007 states more unequivocally that "THE SURGE IS NOT WORKING" since "the Iraqi government has not stepped up." Obama also maintained that "reduced violence in Anbar Province is the result of cooperation between American forces and Sunni tribes, which started more than 18 months ago, long before the surge. The province is overwhelmingly Sunni, and the tribal leaders there made a political decision to turn against al Qaeda. This does not demonstrate the success of the surge; it demonstrates that the solutions in Iraq are political, not military."

Obama's only mention of Anbar today was to say that the future that "both America and Iraq will be more secure when the terrorist in Anbar is taken out by the Iraqi Army, and the criminal in Baghdad fears Iraqi Police, not just coalition forces."

- jpt

July 15, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (122)

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Every single person with more than half a brain knows that the surge was a complete success.

You can review the posts here, and see who the people are that disagree with that statement.

You can then look and see who they support for president.

You can draw your own conclusion from that.

Posted by: Tom C | Jul 22, 2008 11:29:19 AM

WHo knew. Baghdad IS Iraq. Or not. Baghdad is secure but about half the nation is NOT. The surge was NOT supposed to be about securing Baghdad alone. It was to secure the COUNTRY, that includes restoring the basic services that many areas still don't have, get the Iraqi government working, and we get out.

From what I can see, as usually, the Republicans moved the goal post and the MSM went along, failing to do do its own research and recall why we did it in the first place.

Posted by: Cassie129 | Jul 16, 2008 7:30:31 PM

The surge worked? Did anyone in the "journalism" business bother to ask how many war contractors we managed to hire to fight this "war" in Iraq during this surge? Are their levels higher or lower than before "the surge"? No, you didn't. Because the American media and Congress is too lazy or too scared to obtain or report the truth. You've been patsies to this President since the day he took office. If that surge worked so well, why are we still in Iraq? Ask McCain, how many soldiers is he will to sacrifice each month for him to consider our troops "out of harms way". American Journalists are a disgrace to the American education system. Or maybe just an example.

Posted by: fed_up | Jul 16, 2008 10:59:35 AM

The surge is working ... another media invention. The same people who got this war in Iraq wrong are now claiming throwing additional troops in Iraq a success.

The people who got the war in Iraq right are again being ignored.

Violence is down in Iraq ...why ... Sunni in Anbar provence decided ... as they had decided before Bush and McCain invaded Iraq and allowed Alquaida to come in to Iraq ... to throw Alquaida out ... nothing to do with the surge.

Violence is down in Iraq ... why ... two million Iraqis are in neighboring countries as refugees and those neighborhoods in Iraq that were mixed have been ethnicly cleansed ... again nothing to do with the surge.

There's a word in our office for people who take credit for things other people do ... putz comes to mind.

Posted by: beaupritchard | Jul 16, 2008 7:32:05 AM

"Holes in Barack Obama's foreign affairs resume are spurring doubt about his readiness for a crisis" ... crisis have come up in this campaign so that we know exactly how Obama will react.

It is media outlets like abc who are trying to create the perception of doubt ... it is called projection.

It is media outlets like abc that are trying create the perception of leadership by McCain although in no facet of his life has he ever been a leader ... rebel without a cause yes ... leader no.

It is media outlets like abc that are trying create the perception of good judgement in McCain although in no facet of his life has he ever shown good judgement.

And when challenged on this McCain and media hide behind a service record that ... in light of McCains inability to keep his story straight as far as what teams names he recited as pilots when he was questioned by captors ... seems to be made up out of whole clothe.

Posted by: beaupritchard | Jul 16, 2008 7:14:41 AM

The failure of Obama to make the right decision in support of the surge which has produced numerous benefits to different parts of our operations in Iraq.....so now we are supposed to follow Obama into Afghanistan and Pakistan, have unconditional talks with Iran, etc? Who is he kidding?

Posted by: David | Jul 16, 2008 4:13:15 AM

"Having Obama as Commander in Chief would be analogous to having a 6 year old girl as the head coach of the New England Patriots."

it could, just let the msm 'report' the results of the games.

Posted by: mark l. | Jul 16, 2008 2:53:11 AM

Having Obama as Commander in Chief would be analogous to having a 6 year old girl as the head coach of the New England Patriots. Come on libs, grow up and vote for a President, vote John McCain.

Posted by: chris | Jul 15, 2008 11:43:30 PM

I predict a long hot summer for Obama

Posted by: toby928 | Jul 15, 2008 11:42:07 PM

Well.. I think that both McCain and Obama distort the truth significantly. None of them is bright, and self-consistent. I can smell the decline of the US foreign policy, if any of these two guys continue G.W's legacy.

I do not agree with McCain on abortion but I think that he seems to be a more honest man in general. He is like a nice grandpa, though Obama does not do anything for me!


Posted by: Meg | Jul 15, 2008 11:13:11 PM

So Obama blatently lies about his support of the surge today and there are still people dumb enough to believe him? Some people will never learn that this guy is a huge fraud.

Posted by: Publius | Jul 15, 2008 10:40:29 PM

We stayed in Germany/Europe because of the threat of the USSR. There is no similar threat in the Middle East. I'm sure someone will try to repackage missing WMD, or Photoshopped Iranian missiles as a threat. Sorry kids, there's no threat.

The Iraqis wanted us out ASAP in 2003, and as we have seen again in 2008. This makes perfect sense. But in a US election year, a war started for political purposes again becomes a set piece for the next act of political theater.

That Obama is "flip-flopping" is another invention of the GOP. They need something to complain about, I suppose.

One interesting thing about the GOP and the mad drive to "stay the course": if they were football coaches, they'd lose every game. As we all know, teams that have the ability to assess and make adjustments at halftime tend to win. As fans, we look forward to it.

Many of the great generals and tacticians we read about achieved their victories by changing course. But not the great modern GOP politicians

If these guys were lost, would they have the brains to stop and ask for directions? Or would they just continue in the wrong direction because asking for directions is "flip-flopping?"

Posted by: sabbadoo32 | Jul 15, 2008 10:32:52 PM

“TRANSLATING” JOHN McCAIN”

McCain: “The ‘surge’ has been an enormous success”!

Translation:

This is complete BS. The main reason for the reduction of violence in Iraq is because we are paying almost a million dollars a day to the Sunni Sahwah Councils so that their militias will not fight us. The going rate is now $10 US per day to each of the approximately 80,000 Sunni militia. I have absolutely no doubt that we are paying the Shia (Sadr Army) as well.

McCain: “We will need to have a presence in Iraq for years”

Translation:

I haven’t yet figured out how the Sunni and Shia militias are going to get paid if we were to leave…….
(see above)

McCain: “I know how to win wars”.

Translation:

All we have to do is pay the enemy not to fight……. (see above)

McCain: “We can this war with honor”.

Translation:

Paying the enemy not to fight is “winning with honor”???????????????

McCain: “I will turn around the war in Afganistan”

Translation:

Sure – we can just pay off the Taliban, right??????
Somehow, if they haven’t given Osama bin Laden up in 7 years for a zillion dollar reward, I don’t think that will work…….

Posted by: tetvet68 | Jul 15, 2008 10:16:11 PM

Facts have been and remain meaningless to Barack Obama and his devotees.

As for his plan to withdraw the U.S. from Iraq in 16 months? Not even the generals says that's possible.

But, hey, what does that matter to Obama? Mr. Insincerity announced his plan for Iraq before even getting to Iraq to meet with the generals.

Of course, he's relying on his crack military advisers back here--and his extensive knowledge of strategy, tactics, logistics and international relations. Wrong.

And, yes, this is a pro forma photo op. Nothing more. Thing is, he actually thinks no one can see that.

Posted by: CKA in Red State USA | Jul 15, 2008 10:05:03 PM

This is crazy!!!

John McCain is now taking after Obama on the fight in Afghan. Obama has been saying that Afghan is our real fight! McCain has been stuck on Iraq. (100 years) Now today, McCain flips on haveing more troops in Afghan. And Obama is inexperienced?

AP just reported the US will meet with Iran on the their nuclear weapons!!! Obama has been saying that WE USA need to talk to our enemies. Republicans talked about him for this and NOW BUSH is doing it!!!

Obama is SMART!! Bush/McCain know that! If they didn't they wouldn't be trying to follow him!!

Posted by: Avery | Jul 15, 2008 10:02:09 PM

The Iraq war is winding down and the next president can assist Iraq into the Japan of the middle east or abandon it into the Vietnam of the middle east. Sadly, McCain does not clearly aim for the first and Obama obviously aims for the later! Perhaps the media has bashed Iraq as Bush's mistake for so long that America has lost her optimism to succeed. Iraq is at a cross-road and will be the ally or stranger the US wills it to be.

Posted by: FloridaCounts | Jul 15, 2008 9:47:11 PM

The perpetual optimism from the political class in US is pretty amazing. How can anybody make a statement that the surge is working when nobody knows what tomorrow will bring? Today 40 people died in Bagdad in a terrorist attack. Is that a benchmark to define success? If the benchmark is how many US soldiers die per month, we can consider that there has been an improvement. But is it a realistic benchmark that define the stability of the country?

After looking at 2,000 something years of history, success, or peace and prosperity, in the Middle East is unlikely to happen soon.

McCain should stop misleading people and be realistic. Violence is down but political effort has been extremely slow due in large part by the incompetence of the US government. I wonder what would be the reaction of McCain be if after a democratic election in Iraq, the islam hard-liners come into power. Would it be still consider as a success in US's opinion?

Posted by: Luc | Jul 15, 2008 9:40:31 PM

I see John McCain as serving one term and he is just the person for this time in America. This is not the time for learning on the job. As a conservative, black independent, it is strikingly obvious that Barack Obama is very uncertain about his true beliefs and core values. His campaign appears to be in indecision mode for the past 6 weeks. I do believe the democrats have been led to believe Obama is the stronger candidate because a large number of non democrats voted for him.

Is it possible that much of his funding came from Republicans who hated the Clintons and whon woudl never vote for Obama? And is it possible, the stratgey was to build up Obama so he could be the nominee because indeed he is the weaker candidate? Is this nation really ready to give the code for the nukes to an inexperience, tempermental unkown as Barackn Obama? John MCcain patriotism was never questionable. Until Barack Obama admits it was a mistake to seek the counsel of an unrepentant terrorist, Bill Ayers, I think he will very likely not be the next President.

Posted by: Anon 1 | Jul 15, 2008 9:28:36 PM

"Like the GAO says,the surge is not successful."

some things are outside an accountants domain...

from 12/07 to 6/08 we averaged 103 soldiers killed per month.

In the last six months we have averaged 36 killed per month.

If the surge has 'temporarily' reduced violence, it also would appear than it has saved the lives of 402 soldiers(on average)

I wonder if the us soldiers whose lives have been saved by the surge figured into their accounting.

Posted by: mark l. | Jul 15, 2008 9:21:35 PM

Let's review some history. The 'surge' started in March and was fully in place in June. It was not until September that violence started to decrease. The reason? Al Sadr declared a cease-fire on Aug 29 after Shia v Shia violence in Kerbala killed 50. By this time, most of the ethnic cleansing in Baghdad was complete. So to claim that the surge reduced violence in misleading and historically inaccurate.

Posted by: Lee41 | Jul 15, 2008 9:19:16 PM

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