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McCain Sets High Bar for Obama Post-Convention Bounce

August 22, 2008 3:49 PM

The McCain campaign's director of strategy, Sarah Simmons, sent out an email to reporters today setting the post-convention "bounce" in polling to an almost impossibly high level.

"This cycle mirrors Bill Clinton's Democratic convention in 1992: A historic 16-point bump," Simmons wrote. "Barack Obama is more similarly situated to Bill Clinton in 1992 than any other candidate in recent history.  Bill Clinton was a new candidate on the national scene; he was running in a 'change' oriented election cycle and the economy was voters' top issue -- a dynamic he was able to capitalize on.  He received a 16-point bump coming out of his convention.  Obama is also a 'new' candidate in a change-oriented environment.  And, like Bill Clinton, he will spend the convention presenting himself as the agent of change who will fix the economy."

Simmons notes that the day when Obama is scheduled to accept his party's nomination will be the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.'s "I Have A Dream" speech which will "result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage.  On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark.  The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history."

The McCain campaign predicts "nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment."

Let's see how that prediction compares historically.

Historic Convention Bounces in the Gallup Poll, 1964-2000

2004  Kerry -1   GW Bush +2
2000  Gore +8  GW Bush +8
1996  Clinton +5  Dole +3
1992  Clinton +16  GHW Bush +5
1988  Dukakis +7  GHW Bush +6
1984  Mondale +9  Reagan +4
1980  Carter +10  Reagan +8
1976  Carter +9  Ford +5
1968  Humphrey +2  Nixon +5
1964  Johnson +3  Goldwater +5

So if Obama got a nearly 15 point bump, he would be on the receiving end of the second-highest convention bounce in modern American history by any candidate in any party.

Seems a little much.

- jpt

August 22, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (168)

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If a man divorces a loyal wife who was injured in an auto accident and mrries a beautiful 25 year old blond with tons of money (with whom he cheated whil still married), does he not also abandon his first children also? How can that person be a moral person; especially since he has lost count of the houses in which he lives. NOne being a home. Why should anyone want to vote for such a man? He was a prisoner of war and is a prisoner of a failed president's failed ideas. Moral? Hero? A man who was shot down while flying low because he was bombing civilian as well as military sites? A man who has been part of 28 years of the 30 year problems of the U.S? A man who admitedly is not informed well enough about economy? mc Cain? Did he not slay his own brother in the bible. Enough id enough. MacCain does not represent the change that will return this great nation to its days of pride and glory. I want my trillions of mis-spent tax dollars misspent on big oil and in an invasion of a foreign nation back? I want this lost eight years of opportunity back. I want my civil liberties back, as well as my privacy back. I want my grandchildren to live in an America where a man or woman, whether he/she be white or black is not swift boated or hanging chadded so that the greedy and selfish can win an election

Posted by: gus | Aug 24, 2008 11:04:42 PM

Despite the fact that Clinton won in 1992 in part because of Perot votes, and because of the women's vote, comparison to Bush's poor record by Obama-Biden does America and Clinton a great injustice - since anything is nearly better than what America has been though in the last eight years.

But Clinton was surprisingly successful in his terms, and in extending greater prosperity to the nation that was badly needed then, and badly needed now.

Obama-Biden relying upon the Bush poor record is not enough to get elected given his lack of experience and his radical departure from old-shoe politics even with the addition of Biden.

Change never relied upon color before, and the probability that it needs to be tied in to that perception is irrational at best. As that reality becomes more apparent, it is the recipe for yet another third party showing amidst the hypocrisy that has become American politics every four years - none of which can be tied to any one candidate, any one policy, nor any one group. The message is in the mix however of how pandering to fallacies can create a worse world, not a better one.

Without clarity, Americans have no extra advantage against the flaws of world politics that is closer by the day, and radical departures from its traditional Constitutional principles merely moves it closer to the abyss.

American democracy and rational capitalism cannot afford to be pushed through a maze to see what comes out on the other side; it is surely to be an unacceptable option from what were her beginnings that have allowed her to endure for 400 years - so far. But past performance doesn't guarantee future results - that phrase is all too visible and apparent in today's politics. Gambling with people's lives still leaves an uncertainty no one is willing to bank on, or bet on, and that is today's reality - in black and white.

Posted by: Pat | Aug 24, 2008 9:33:09 AM

A couple of weeks ago we were chatting about Britney and Paris...McCain using images of Moses in his cheesy web commercials...pundits were screaming, Obama needs to respond..well he did at 3:00 a.m. this morning...Hours after Biden's speech all should realized, Obama has responded to the attacks with a one two Biden punch. When we bounce after the convention we will be on cloud 9. It's over Obama haters. We have sealed the deal.

Posted by: clarity | Aug 24, 2008 12:28:41 AM

NoBama's answers in the forum: "uhhh...ummmm...hmmmm...uhhh...hmmmm...ummmm....uhhhhh....thats above my paygrade."

What a loser Obama is!

McCain 08!

_______________________________________
I agree this response went over my head.

But please, 5 million is rich. No taxes for anyone. Defeat evil.

Neither Mc Cain nor Obama are the losers. Mc Cain's estimated net worth is 100 million, Obama made
4 million last year on his book sales. Are you anywhere close to these figures???
Didn't think so; if you where you'd have more important things to do right now, LOSER

Posted by: Mille | Aug 23, 2008 2:55:55 PM

Im not that sure if Hussein Obama hates America with Michelle or somthing.And to attack anyone who owns seven houses, is most ridiculous. What is wrong with this guy?
____________________________________
The attack is not “on someone that owns seven or ten houses”.
The attack is - you’re trying to paint someone else as an elites or out of touch
when you yourself have so many houses that you can’t remember how many
or where there are. If you’re so out of touch with your very own assest (which is small
compared to all of America) how is it possible for you to be in touch with what this country is going
through. Also it’s another hint as to Mc Cain’s mental state, he’s suppose to
be this big expert on foreign policy, but doesn’t know what country is after the border
of Iraq; or where Afghanistan is located. Mc Cain is too old and too much of a war monger.
It is only Mc Cain who graduated almost last in his class and his most loyal voters take so much
pride in ignorance.

Posted by: Mille | Aug 23, 2008 2:48:19 PM

Posted by: Debbie, Columbia, SC | Aug 22, 2008 10:40:03 PM

Thank you.

Posted by: Mille | Aug 23, 2008 2:33:49 PM

My vote wasnt based on gender. EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY, is the main reason a lot of people will vote for McCain. He's not some newbie with a 143 days as a senator.

Thats my reason for NOT voting for Obama, he is just toooooo green for these troubled times.

____________________________________
This of course is your opinion.
However being held captive for 5yrs does not foreign experience make.
Graduating out of the last five in your class (as class of over 800) does not show intelligency. Threaten a Russian especailly in a time when our rescources and international support is so low does not display EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY. Not knowing where Iraq and Iran are located on the world's map (especially if you have a war you voted for and still support) does not display EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY.
Although Mc Cain's serves should be respected and greatly appreciated by all Americans; he is not fit to be President at least not because of EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY. But of course that is your view. I just want you to look closly at what you're voting for. We may very well be in WWar III with Mc Cain's EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY.

Posted by: Mille | Aug 23, 2008 2:29:31 PM


Obama betrayed me. He said he was for change and against the war.
Then he picks Biden, an old Washington insider who voted for the War.
I was looking forward to voting FOR Obama, now I guess I'll just be voting AGAINST McCain. Sad, I was hoping Obama would be different...he's not.

Posted by: Ron | Aug 23, 2008 11:19:59 AM


Hillary Democrats, are core democrats who voted in CLOSED Democratic Primaries. Barack Obama used the DEMOCRAT for a day method.
--------------------------------------
You still haven't given me a single valid reason for choosing McCain over Obama if you agreed with Hillary's positions. Or if you didn't agree with Hillary's positions, your vote/donation was based solely on gender.
-----------------------------------
My vote wasnt based on gender. EXPERIENCE ON FOREIGN POLICY, is the main reason a lot of people will vote for McCain. He's not some newbie with a 143 days as a senator.

Thats my reason for NOT voting for Obama, he is just toooooo green for these troubled times.

Posted by: Patti | Aug 22, 2008 11:21:55 PM

THE TRUTH ABOUT MCCAIN:

McCain Fortune Traced To Organized Crime Mob figures later implicated in Arizona savings and loan scandal
By Jerome R. Corsi (C) 2008 WorldNetDaily
John McCain's personal fortune traces back to organized crime in Arizona, through his father-in-law, according to a report published by a multi-news agency team called Investigative Reporters and Editors Inc. IRE reporters Amy Silverman and John Doherty, writing in the Phoenix New Times, note that the father of McCain's wife, James Hensley, was convicted by a federal jury in U.S. District Court of Arizona in March 1948 on seven counts of filing false liquor records. Hensley also was charged with conspiracy to hide from federal authorities the names of persons involved in a liquor industry racket with two companies he managed, United Sales Company in Phoenix and United Distributors in Tucson. The umbrella company, United Liquor, at that time held a monopoly in Arizona, organized and managed by Kemper Marley, who was accused of mob ties by a reporter who was murdered in 1977. Silverman and Doherty report that by 1955, Hensley had launched a Budweiser distributorship in Phoenix, "a franchise reportedly bestowed upon him by Marley, who was never indicted in the 1948 liquor-law-violation case - or a subsequent one - despite his controlling role in the liquor distribution businesses." According to Marley's longtime public relations man, Al Lizanetz, the Marley liquor empire was founded by the Bronfman family dynasty of Canada which operated Allied Finance Company, Northern Export Company and Distillers Corporation - the Seagrams, Ltd. empire. As chronicled by the "Rumrunners and Prohibition" video shown popularly on the History Channel, during the 1920s, the Bronfman family made millions in bootlegging, accounting for half the illegal liquor crossing the border, working in a profitable distribution deal with the infamous mobster Meyer Lansky, who later moved on to establish the crime syndicates in the casinos of Havana, Cuba, in the 1940s and 50s. Arizona in the 1970s drew a "who's who" of organized crime figures seeking to retire in the sun, including Rochester, N.Y., mob boss Joe Bonanno, who spent his last days along the Lake Havasu shores and in a quiet home in Tucson. In 1977, after Arizona Republic reporter Don Bolles was killed when his car was blown up by the mob in a parking lot, a team of 36 journalists from 27 news organizations, known as IRE, published an 80,000 word 23-part series on organized crime in Arizona. Dan Nowicki and Bill Muller, reporting in the Arizona Republic March 1, 2007, documented that in 1953, Hensley was again charged with falsifying records at Marley's liquor firms. Hensley was found not guilty after being defended by William Rehnquist, the future chief justice of the Supreme Court, Nowicki and Muller wrote. In 2000, Hensley, then 80 years old, still controlled the Budweiser distributorship valued as a $200 million-a-year business, with annual sales of more than 20 million cases of beer. On Feb. 17, 2000, Pat Flannery reported in the Arizona Republic that Hensley's beer-distribution empire was the fifth largest in the nation, "a Budweiser franchise whose bigwigs hold the No. 2 spot on Sen. John McCain's all-time career list of corporate donors." Since 1982, according to the Center for Public Integrity, Hensley & Co. officials have pumped $80,000 into the campaigns of McCain, Flannery wrote. More than a quarter of that has been donated since 1997. Flannery further reported that in 2000, Cindy Hensley McCain, the senator's wife, held a 37.18 percent financial interest in her father's Budweiser distributorship, although she was not involved in day-to-day operations. The McCain's four children held a combined 23.55 percent interest, though their interests were at that time held in trust. Arizona crime connections again surfaced in the 1980s when McCain was implicated as one of the five U.S. senators named in the "Keating Five" scandal. Charles Keating Jr. and his associates paid McCain some $112,000 in political campaign contributions between 1982 and 1987, while Keating was organizing a massive real estate fraud in the then FDIC federally insured Lincoln Savings and Loan Association. In April 1986, McCain's wife and father-in-law also invested $359,000 in a Keating shopping center, before the savings and loan scandal broke. Keating was sent to prison under civil racketeering and fraud charges for the $1.1 billion loss the investment scheme cost the public, although McCain and the other U.S. senators involved managed to avoid charges in the Senate, with McCain receiving only an Ethics Committee rebuke for exercising "poor judgment." Even today, McCain's 2008 presidential campaign staff includes several prominent lobbyists, despite the senator's claim to be a campaign reform crusader whose goal is to take money out of politics. WND previously reported McCain's 2000 and 2008 campaign manager Rick Davis took a six-figure salary as president of the Soros-funded Reform Institute in the intervening years and managed his own lobby firm of Davis, Manafort & Freeman in Alexandria, Va., operating at the same building in a suite down the hall from the Reform Institute. In 2003 and 2004, Davis apparently solicited CSC Holdings, a subsidiary of the Cablevision Systems Corporation, headed by Charles F. Dolan, to make two separate $100,000 contributions to the Reform Institute. In between the two separate $100,000 contributions Cablevision made to the Reform Institute, McCain, then chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, wrote a letter to the Federal Communications Commission supporting Cablevision's desire to continue packaging customer TV programming in a manner more profitable to Cablevision. In this period of time, McCain worked with Vicki Iseman, a lobbyist representing telecommunications companies, including Cablevision. WND also reported Davis arranged a 2006 meeting with Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska in Davos, Switzerland, a close supporter of Russian president Vladimir Putin. McCain repeatedly has voiced opposition to Putin, even calling on President Bush to suspend Russia's membership in the Group of Eight. In 2007, the U.S. State Department cancelled Deripaska's visa over continuing concerns he remained connected with the Russian mafia.

Posted by: Debbie, Columbia, SC | Aug 22, 2008 10:40:03 PM

The middle eastern countries want him in because they know he has no knowledge or experience in the defense of this country!

~Gale

This above line is idiotic to say the least.
First of all, the first part of this pathetic argument is false... Who told you this? The M.E. Countries themselves? or as a whole?

The second part is also ridiculous in it's nature:
lET'S EXAMINE...

She says that Obama has no experience, obviously implying that McSame does have experience.

OH YEAH?
How is it that oyu think he has real experience just because HE GOT CAUGHT?

Wouldn't that mean that he was actually a poor soldier, who himself knows nothing about defense or war?

He got caught and spent 5 years in captivity and for some reason you clowns think this is a good thing and it's commendable... Well it's not.

He was locked up for 5 years because he let himself get caught and in doing so wasn't around to see what america was going through at home or in the war. He was completely out of touch during that time. But you try and turn it around as if this mistake makes him better suited to be a PRESIDENT?

How so?

That is just dumb, I'm sorry, but it is.

McCAIN Doesn't have any amount of real decision making experience.

PERIOD~

Posted by: REPUBLICAN4LIFE | Aug 22, 2008 9:09:52 PM

How can someone say they are a Democrat and yet believe that McCain is more likely to run his administration in closer accord with the fundamental principles of the Democratic party than the actual Democratic candidate?

Don't people who say this realize that every single Democrat who is -really- for change in the same way that Hillary was (including Hillary herself) who hears them say this thinks they are a total whine bag?

Can we really afford to waste another 4 years because of a temper tantrum? I think people in this camp are despicable for allowing their personal vendettas to interfere with doing the right thing.


Posted by: Cal | Aug 22, 2008 9:08:38 PM

Im not that sure if Hussein Obama hates America with Michelle or somthing.And to attack anyone who owns seven houses, is most ridiculous. What is wrong with this guy?

Posted by: Jack | Aug 22, 2008 9:07:12 PM

Obama is not as sleek as Clinton. He sucks!!!

Posted by: al4mcattack | Aug 22, 2008 8:45:10 PM

Perot dropping out of the race right before the Democratic Convention contributed mightily to Clinton's huge bounce. That was a unique situation. Perot later dropped back in to the race, of course, but his initial drop-out before the Dem. convention boosted Clinton's numbers temporarily.

Posted by: Lisa | Aug 22, 2008 8:38:49 PM

Third try for a bounce Obama....Hillary dropping out didn't work, European World Tour didn't work....this is it....enjoy your week to bump up in the polls. Hope Oprah's free gift baskets help you out too.

Posted by: Debra | Aug 22, 2008 8:31:04 PM

I pray Obama choses Biden and McCain choses Romney.

McCain is worth $40.4 million. His wife net worth is $100 million. McCain owns 11 homes. Drives a cadillac. Cindy drives a lexus in a $3,000 suits.

Romney is worth $202 million. Another elitist of his own.

Obama is worth $1.3 million

Biden net worth is $100,000-150,000

Elitist. Yes indeed. Its the McCain/Romney ticket.

Barack/Biden vs McCain/Romney will be the easiest landslide since Reagan.

Posted by: Vanessa | Aug 22, 2008 8:27:27 PM

I will vote Republican when the true middle of the road Republican take back control of the party. They let the Conservative far right wing nuts take over after Nixon embarrased the party. Now they have to get rid of the con as well as their partners the Evangelicals and their one issue only vote pattern. Till that happens I'm staying with the Independent or Democrats.

Posted by: Ronaldraygun | Aug 22, 2008 8:26:28 PM

When did it become a crime to own a few houses in United States? We are not communist country right?

Posted by: Joseph | Aug 22, 2008 8:24:49 PM

Looks like Obama will follow in the footsteps of Dukakis. Actually, Obama, will make Dukakis look good in November. And the democrats were so close...

Posted by: Bart | Aug 22, 2008 8:16:57 PM

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