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McCain Pulls Ahead in Gallup
September 07, 2008 9:41 PM
Not the daily tracking poll, the actual Gallup poll, has Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., pulling ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.
The numbers among registered voters are 50 percent to 46 percent -- and 54 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
Obama's campaign always said before the American people made their final decision about him, the Democrat would be judged on three things -- the VP pick, the convention, and the debates. Now, two of the three have gone down, and the American people have liked McCain's stuff better.
- jpt
September 7, 2008 in 2008: Republicans | Permalink | Share | User Comments (688)
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Obama/Biden 08:
1. If we had waited for the Battle of Afghanistan to be over before we acted against Saddam Hussein, he would still be in power today. It would now be 17 years of his failure to comply with the conditions of the 1991 cease fire. Saddam Hussein's Oil for Food program/scam would still be active. Saddam Hussein's men would still be killing, raping and torturing tens of thousands of Iraqis each year. And he would still be paying up to $25,000 to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers which would have meant even more suicide bombings. But even more importantly, the whole world would still be obsessing over his WMDs. It wasn't until we actually went into Iraq that we proved that he had gotten rid of his WMDs. The reason Saddam Hussein refused to comply with the conditions of the cease fire was he wanted his neighbors to continue to believe he still had WMDs. To admit that he no longer had WMDs would take away the power that he had over his neighbors.
And what if the Democrats (President Clinton, Sen. Harry Reid, Rep. Nancy Pelosi, Sen. John Kerry, Sen. David Rockefeller, Sec. of State Madeleine Albright, to name a few) had been right, back in 1998, that Saddam Hussein had WMDs and was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, and we waited too long to act?
Finally, had we sent in 100,000 troops into Afghanistan we would have had a lot more than 4,000 casualties. With the terrain in Afghanistan it is better to send in smaller units. Every attempt to send 10,000 troops up into the mountains would have meant half would never have returned home.
I am actually not implying that we are losing in Afghanistan. It is just taking longer to accomplish because so many of the NATO troops have to let the Taliban and al Qaeda roam freely because they are forbidden to fight. The Taliban and al Qaeda are doing a great job of exploiting this weakness.
2. President Bush's approval rating began to fall once we discovered that there were no WMDs. The Democrats and the Liberal Left did a magnificient job in portraying the Bush Administration as a liar. And the mainstream media picked up on it an continued to run with it night after night (and the Liberal Left continues to this day). All of this in spite of the fact that many of these same Democrats who called President Bush a liar, themselves "lied" to the American people about Saddam Hussein having WMDs.
But President Bush's approval rating really tanked following Katrina. Once again the Democrats and the Liberal Left seized the moment and did a great job in portraying President Bush and FEMA as being incompetent in the handling of the aftermath of Katrina. YET President Bush had tried for three days to convince Gov. Blanco to hand over the control of the situation to Homeland Security and FEMA. Bush wanted to send in military troops to assist the situation before Katrina hit, but Gov. Blanco refused. And she then failed to deploy the Louisiana National Guard until a couple of days after Katrina made landfall. Of course the biggest failure was that of New Orleans' Mayor Nagin when he allowed tens of thousands of people to use the Superdome and the Convention Center as a shelter without providing food, water and security.
5. Sen. McCain will sic the "pitbull with lipstick" on the media in due time. She is actually scheduled to appear with ABC's Charles Gibson later this week. He might want to bring some pepper spray!!!
Posted by: James Danley | Sep 9, 2008 6:03:30 PM
James Danley,
I don't think I am going to change your mind, and conversely you are not going to change mine. The reason all of us blog is not because we think we can change the minds of partisans from each side. Instead, we hope that we can reach some people out there who might still have an open mind. There might not be many out there, but still. Hope springs eternal.
We can stick to our format, I guess.
1. My original point was that Palin has less foreign policy experience than Obama. You stated correctly that Palin has more executive experience than Obama. She does have more executive experience than either Obama or McCain. My follow-up point was that George W. Bush had more executive experience than all of the above, but that did not prevent him to start (or renew, if you prefer) the Iraq war before finishing the war against Al Qaeda in Afghanistan who actually attacked us on 9/11. I think your counter-argument is that we are not winning in Afghanistan because we are not in charge in Afghanistan, NATO is.
The United States is the backbone and muscle of NATO. NATO may be nominally in charge, but American troops are still under the direct command of the U.S. president and his generals. The reason Al Qaeda is making a comeback in Afghanistan is not because there are not enough NATO troops. It is because there are not enough American troops. The reason there are not enough American troops in Afghanistan is that George W. Bush pulled out most of our troops in order to star/renew the war in Iraq. NATO cannot stop us. Who are they kidding. We are NATO.
2. It is true that independents tend to be more conservative than liberal. But they are not as conservative as Bush. Palin, on the other hand, is more conservative than Bush. As I mentioned before, both of them believe the war in Iraq is a task from God. I don't think this is a widely held belief among the independents. There is a reason Bush's approval rating hovers around 30 percent. The conservative Republicans may still be in his corner, but the independents are not.
3. Passage of the Akaka bill will not lead to the secession of Hawaii. There is no popular support for this in Hawaii. According to a blog on the secession movement in Vermont, there are more people in Vermont who support its secession from the U.S. (8%) than any other states in the union, including Hawaii (less than 6 percent of people in Hawaii support its secession from the U.S.) Akaka might think otherwise, but that does not make it true.
5. We both agree that right now Palin appears to be more popular than Obama. I will still argue that people still don't know much about Palin. She might be more popular now, but wait until the media have a chance to examine and publicize her political views. The McCain campaign can't hide her from the media forever.
By the way, if people out there want to talk about something else, please do. No matter how many times we blog here or somewhere else, each of us has only one vote. Remember to vote in November.
Posted by: Obama/Biden 08 | Sep 9, 2008 2:43:37 PM
Obama/Biden 08:
1. The Battle of Iraq is under American command. Afganistan is mostly a coalition under NATO command, with many of the coalition member countries prohibiting their troops from performing combat duties. They are only allowed to train and perform peace keeping duties. Unless and until NATO hands over the command to the American generals, we have to live with the decisions made by NATO.
2. Independents will be pivotal in the general election. But I disagree with your assessment. Independents are typically slightly more conservative than liberal. However the real key to winning the election will be voter turnout. Now that the Republican Party is fully energized and united, all of the grass root organizations will be in full force as they were in 2000 and 2004.
3. The author of the Native Hawaiin Government Reorganization Act, Sen. Akaka (D-HI), acknowledged that if the bill passed it would very likely result in Hawaii's secession. It was this admission that caused the bill's failure for overriding the filibuster. Both Sen. Obama and Sen. Biden still voted for closure knowing that the bill might result in Hawaii's secession from the Union.
5. Polls do show that Gov. Palin is currently more popular than either Sen. Obama or Sen. McCain. Yes the Republicans did have more viewers in three nights than the Democrats had in four nights. But both Sen. Obama's speech and Sen. McCain's speech drew more viewers than Gov. Palin, with Sen. McCain beating out Sen. Obama by about 500,000 viewers.
Posted by: James Danley | Sep 8, 2008 7:25:48 PM
James Danley,
You deserve credit for at least being willing to engage in a debate. Most Republican bloggers just repeat talking points.
That being said, I do have some comments in response to what you have said.
1. George W. Bush has more executive experience than Palin, who in turn has more executive experience than McCain. Bush's experience led the US into a war in Iraq, which is still going even though Saddam is already dead, instead of finishing the war in Afghanistan against the original Al Qaeda who actually attacked us on 9/11.
2. This election will be decided by independent voters. McCain, by picking Palin, may have consolidated support from conservatives, but it will turn off the independent voters once Palin's political views become known.
3. The bill in question, The Native Hawaiian Government Reorganization Act of 2007, is a legislation that aims to establish a process for native Hawaiians to obtain federal recognition similar to some Native American tribes currently possess. The native American tribes are still in the United States.
4. I don't think you are arguing the point, so I am not going to comment furter.
5. The ability to draw a crowd is not the reason McCain calls Obama a rock star. The Republican National Convention actually drew higher television rating than the Democratic convention this year. That does not make McCain and Palin rock stars. McCain calls Obama a rock star because he is implying Obama's supporters blindly support him without knowing what Obama's positions on the issues are. Well, right now most people have no idea what Palin stands for on the issues, but she is apparently more popular than Obama or McCain, according to the polls.
Posted by: Obama/Biden 08 | Sep 8, 2008 6:16:06 PM
"Before us we have the opportunity to elect a fresh new leader in Barack Obama but according to the poles we prefer the same old tired leadership."
Darn those poles!
Posted by: RealisticLib | Sep 8, 2008 5:11:58 PM
Before us we have the opportunity to elect a fresh new leader in Barack Obama but according to the poles we prefer the same old tired leadership.
If we elect McCain America looses but the democrats win in either case. If this country can stand 4 more years of the Bush administration policies and if there is by the grace of god the opportunity for another election the republicans won't hold office again for the next hundred years.
If McCain is elected we face the possibility of a continuing war in Iraq and Afghanistan and new wars in Iran and Syria and god only knows what kind of conflict he will start with Russia that has already began under the Bush administration. America better wake up to the issues that face this country. John McCain and Sarah Palin are not the hot heads that can solve those issues.
Oh, and by the way, if you are a middle class family and earn nearly five million a year and are willing to sacrifice this country so you can keep an unfair percentage of that income it would be an absolutely no brain-er on your part to vote for Obama.
Posted by: LANNY EDWARDS | Sep 8, 2008 4:48:00 PM
My goodness I did not know Clinton had all these right wing nuts cases who will now vote GOP and for more years of Corruption.
If Bozo the clown was alive and he was conservative the right wing crazies in the nation would vote for him, in this case her. This choice is an insult to American history. It is a sure thing most combat veterans who have seen the enemy eye to eye will not vote for this pair. McCain does not have my vote. My vote is for real change, not a change from Bush's corporate lobbyists to the McCain corporate lobbyists.
Posted by: Archie Haase | Sep 8, 2008 4:33:37 PM
Ryan C, there were as many Democrats as Republicans who claimed that Iraq had WMDs. If you recall, Congress gave President Clinton the authorization for regime change in Iraq--back in 1998--based on Iraq having WMDs. And some of the Democrats stated it was an "imminent threat" back then. The Bush Administration never claimed the threat was imminent. President Bush always said, "before it becomes imminent."
As for your last paragraph, that is totally inaccurate. Joe Wilson actually outed his own wife long before Robert Novak published his column. In his biography in Who's Who, it stated that his wife was "the former Valerie Plame." And Scooter Libby was not pardoned. His sentence was commuted.
Posted by: James Danley | Sep 8, 2008 4:20:37 PM
"2b. Most American's do not understand nor have they even read the 2002 Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq. We invaded Iraq in 2003 because Saddam Hussein violated the conditions of the 1991 cease fire for 12 years. Bush rescinded the cease fire and resumed the 1991 Gulf War"
I actually agree with that first statement.
I never considered Iraq to be an "illegal" war but it does make me laugh that people rely on its legality. Remind me of another regime that was a stickler for war being legal.
The American people thought the war was about protecting them from WMDs.
They were told that by the Bush admin. The Bush admin has been shown to have omitted facts, relied on demostrated false info and outrgiht lies told to the American people and the world.
They even exposed the identity of a covert CIA agent as retaliation for being called on their BS. Scooter Libby was of course pardoned. Having a VP staffer on trial for treason is bad PR.
Posted by: Ryan C | Sep 8, 2008 4:08:52 PM
You won't catch me backing Obama. No Obama, no way and no how. I see Clinton v. Palin in 2012 after McCain/Palin slaughter St. Obama/Biden in 2008. Thanks Obama, DNC and MSM for handing the Presidency to the Republicans again this year with your chosen one.
Posted by: Mary O'Bryan | Sep 8, 2008 4:02:30 PM
Albert:
If my posts were not deleted I might get
more information to maybe change my mind, but everytime I post someone seems to think maybe they are too honest.
Posted by: MEW | Sep 8, 2008 3:03:12 PM
Obama/Biden 08?
1. Sen. Obama has NO executive experience. Gov. Palin has 6 years as Mayor and 20 months as Governor.
2a. Gov. Palin being a strong conservative is what has united the Republican Party around the McCain-Palin ticket.
2b. Most American's do not understand nor have they even read the 2002 Joint Resolution to Authorize the Use of United States Armed Forces Against Iraq. We invaded Iraq in 2003 because Saddam Hussein violated the conditions of the 1991 cease fire for 12 years. Bush rescinded the cease fire and resumed the 1991 Gulf War.
3. Sen. Obama actually VOTED for closure on a bill in 2006 that had it passed would have likely lead to the secession of Hawaii from the Union.
4. FACT: Sen. Clinton did whine...she actually shed a tear or two when she complained about her opponents ganging up on her just prior to the New Hampshire primary.
5. Wow you are equating Gov. Palin to Sen. Obama! I wouldn't go that far, since Gov. Palin only spoke in front of 20,000 people in St. Paul, MN. Sen. Obama spoke to over 200,000 in Germany and 84,000 in Denver, CO. Hmmm! Sorry, 20,000 do not a rock star make--yet!
Posted by: James Danley | Sep 8, 2008 2:51:38 PM
With both conventions over, one thing is clear. McCain/Palin are not afraid to challenge their own party to drive the change that is needed. Obama did just the opposite--his convention speech was a recitation of tired, old democratic ideas founded on his belief that government should involve itself more deeply in our lives. His choice of Biden, who has spent the last 30 + years up on capitol hill, is perfect. Two equivocating, bloviating lawyers are better than one, right?
Posted by: NJH | Sep 8, 2008 2:44:56 PM
Hey Belle Star,
I came up with one more Carter accomplishment, the Community Reinvestment Act. Want to know where the subprime lending mess started? Look no further.
Enjoy!
Posted by: Woody | Sep 8, 2008 2:43:59 PM
MEW:
Palin believes that the war in Iraq is a plan from God. She must come out of hiding and speak to media. This Palin train is doomed to derail
Posted by: Albert | Sep 8, 2008 2:36:50 PM
Jayhawk, are you at it again??? Wow, you must LOVE drama! Wishing you the best...and...may your upcoming posts reflect honesty, accuracy...and heart.
Posted by: Barbyrah | Sep 8, 2008 2:29:10 PM
The bounce from the Republican National convention won't last. Historically bounces from the national conventions do not last. The important things are the polls in the states. Obama is still ahead in electoral votes projections on CNN and other websites.
The Palin pick undermines too many of McCain arguments against Obama:
1. McCain has been attacking Obama for months on his inexperience. Palin has less foreign policy experience (zero) than Obama. Obama at least serves on the Foreign Relations Committee and has actually talked with foreign leaders.
2. Palin is more conservative than McCain. She is more conservative than Bush. She said that the war in Iraq was a task from God. Unlike the Bush conservatives who still think the Iraq war is justified and who enthusiastically support Palin, most Americans believe the Iraq war is a mistake, regardless of the success of the surge.
3. Palin's husband was a member of Alaska Independence Party (AIP), which wants to secede from the United States. Palin sent a video to the AIP convention this year praising the AIP for their good work. This is worse than anything Michelle Obama has said.
4. Palin attacked Hillary Clinton for whining about criticism from media. That will not help with Hillary's supporters.
5. McCain has been attacking Obama's popularity and rock-star status for months. This did not preventing him from picking a rock star from his party in Palin. Now she is more popular than he is. Maybe the ticket should be Palin/McCain.
Obama/Biden 08
Posted by: Obama/Biden 08 | Sep 8, 2008 2:23:49 PM
INTERESTING!!
RealClear Politics Poll Average of the latest 5 polls to come out -- McCain up by 3.2%.
CNN -- Tie (48-48)
Hotline/FD Tracking -- Tie (44-44)
Rasmussen Tracking -- McCain by 1 (48-47)
Gallup Tracking -- McCain by 5 (49-44)
USA Today/Gallup -- McCain by 10 (54-44)
Posted by: James Danley | Sep 8, 2008 2:04:45 PM
Belle Star,
You have an interesting persective on history. The Nixon price controls sent shockwaves through the economy to the degree that they were quickly removed. Please remind me of what Carter did? When I think of Carter all can I remember are gas lines, 18% mortgages, hostages, a hobbled military and Camp David. Oh, and he gets a lot of credit for the Reagan revolution as well.
Posted by: Woody | Sep 8, 2008 2:00:39 PM
He should have picked Hillary. I hope women who are thinking of voting for Mccain will vote for Nader/Gonzalez.
Posted by: Nader/Gonzalez08 | Sep 8, 2008 1:58:34 PM
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