Political Punch
Power, pop, and probings from ABC News Senior White House Correspondent Jake Tapper
RECENT POSTS
- In Shift, US Calls for "Amnesty" for Journalists in NK
- Obama Pushes Back Amid Criticism Over G-8 Progress on Iran
- While the President's Away, Health Care will Stray?
- 'My Cousin In Kenya Can't Get a Job Without Paying a Bribe': Obama Tells African Leaders to Get Their Houses in Order
- 'Camp Obama' for Malia and Sasha
- When In Rome...? Actually, not so much
- President Obama Shakes Hands with Qadaffi
- More Qs for O's WH - 7/9/2009
- President Obama Urges Major Economies Forum Nations to Act on Climate Change
- Today's Qs for O's WH - 7/9/2009
MONTHLY ARCHIVES
« Previous | Main | Next »
Obama-Backers: Check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself
October 13, 2008 11:37 AM
Buoyed by encouraging poll numbers -- today's ABC News/Washington Post poll has Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., beating Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, 53% to 43% -- lots of Obama backers out there seem to think this thing is over.
Sen. Hillary Clinton's senior adviser Howard Wolfson today writes "A PreMortem for The McCain Campaign," stating, "The economic crisis dealt the McCain campaign a fatal body blow." He goes on to explore what McCain should have done differently.
That's not what lots of smart folks in the Obama campaign think. They believe Obama's poll numbers are artificially high, McCain's are artificially low, this race will come down to two or three points, and anything could happen.
As Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen in the Washington Post today remind us, "recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable...At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points."
CNN on October 5, 2000 reported that the "CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today's figures -- 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush -- represents a significant margin for the vice president."
Obviously the numbers narrowed a little bit.
As will these as well.
-- jpt
UPDATE: It did not even occur to me, until a poster below accused me of being racist, that anyone would think my invoking of the line "Check yourself before you wreck yourself" had anything to do with Obama's race.
It does not.
It has to do with my frequent use of silly pop culture references, and the fact that I am a big fan of Ice Cube.
And in that spirit, enjoy:
October 13, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (193)
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
Why is it that most of you are trying to convince the KOS Kids and the Koolaid drinkers off the ledge, they will not hear you. They only hear the heavenly music of the "One", No fact, No Logic, No Truth will alter them you are wasting your time. They cannot support any of their fact except with the "One" (absolutly unquestionable)truth or the assertions of the (In the Bag) media. If the media sent even have the time vetting the "one" as the did "Joe the Plumber" Hillary would be the candidate and maybe we would have a chance at fixing the country, but the "One" will only lead us to the dump.
Posted by: Magic | Oct 17, 2008 12:02:28 PM
In socialist-communist countries the first to go have historically been the elites and that group includes journalists, artists, college professors etc. Is that group in our country just dumb or are they self hating?
Posted by: Kathy | Oct 17, 2008 10:26:35 AM
who knew how to spell "POTATO",
---------------------
And knows that J-O-B-S is a four-letter word?
Posted by: andycanuck | Oct 16, 2008 7:13:38 PM
Flash Override wrote:
"This is a lame attempt to create a narrative to explain the stealing of the vote."
Flash apparently refers to Tapper's post as a way of explaining away a "stolen" vote ahead of time.
I agree that there is preparation for the actual vote by talking up the polls, but it is by the optimistic Obama supporters and the media, who both figure that if they can declare the race over now, then a contrary result on election night will be ore susceptible to claims of fraud, voter suppression, etc.
Posted by: Deuce Geary | Oct 16, 2008 6:30:21 PM
I love how democrats throw around the voter fraud issue when the vast majority of voter fraud convictions have been against democrats.
Guilty conscious, I guess. ACORN is doing everything it can to try to corrupt the system -- while liberals cry "Diebold" to anyone who will listen. Sad.
I must be racist for even thinking that elections laws are supposed to be obeyed.
Posted by: mesablue | Oct 16, 2008 4:43:40 PM
Obama = Dewey
McCain = Truman
On the morning after the 1948 presidential election, the Chicago Daily Tribune's headline read "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." That's what the Republicans, the polls, the newspapers, the political writers, and even many Democrats had expected. But in the largest political upset in U.S. history, Harry S. Truman surprised everyone when he, and not Thomas E. Dewey, won the 1948 election for president of the United States.
Posted by: Fallon | Oct 16, 2008 4:42:09 PM
By the way..thanks for playing that song Jack!
You betta check yo-self fo ya wreck yo self!!
Posted by: Tuffy | Oct 14, 2008 11:58:22 PM
Yes, we are losing, pay no attention to the polls, help me hit my goals, I mean, come work for change!
Posted by: Obama Organizer | Oct 14, 2008 8:44:57 AM
we were looking for a president who sticks to the issues, who wasn't going to fight dirty, who knew how to spell "POTATO", who didn't make us look like laughing stock of the world, who could bring us together as the great nation we are., who was smart, well spoken. that's who OBAMA is!!!! Republicans are just mad he turned out to be a black man. Who cares if he's black. GET OVER IT!!! Republicans are mad because they ended up with half-dead old man and a stupid idiot who can even name a single newspaper.
L.A Times < New York Times< Sacramento Bee< Daily Breeze.
How about that I'm more qualified than Sarah Palin!!!
STOP THE DRAMA !!!! VOTE OBAMA!!!!!
Posted by: MARGE696 | Oct 14, 2008 2:13:17 AM
Amanda says:
I hate to say it but the Bradley Effect will have a big influence on the final results of Obama's campaign. Many people will never, and I mean never, vote for a black man for president.
|||
yes, but they are already being counted in the Republican column. How do you think that in the middle of this mess, 40% of the populace may be willing to vote for McCain. It's estimated that bout 6% now won't vote for a black for president, but the current climate has offered those whgo won't a socially acceptable excuse: "Obama isn't a black, he an "Ayrab" or "Muslim" or "terrorist" or "abortionist" or "he's not Hillary" or "an elite" etc. I suspect a good many older people will, worry more about their retirement savings and back Obama despite him being black. I also suspect those that don't want to vote for a black man are not going to often be in swing states that hold for McCain. Lots of them will be in places like Utah that have 20 point leads.
Amanda continues:
|||
The polls are tightening somewhat. Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby are not at 10-13 points for Obama as some national polls have it.
|||
Last Rasmussen poll I saw today had Obama up by 11, and Gallup by the same.
The polls tend to overcount Republicans because under FCC rules you can't autodial cellphones, and that makes the pool older. It misses a lot of newly registered voters and those who only have cellphones who back Obama by margins between 2 and 3 to 1. The methodology -- discounting likely voters to the 60% that prevailed in 2004 is likely to be a substantial undercount of actual turnout, given the ground war Obama has been waging since the 2006 midterms.
Consider also that the things that got conservative evangelicals to the polls in swing states -- gay marriage propositions -- aren't on ballots now, and at least some evnagelicals are moving in Obama's direction.
Posted by: Fran Barlow | Oct 14, 2008 12:58:13 AM
The Republicans wouldn't have won in 2000 or 2004 without ballot fraud/manipulation, so the polls on Kerry and Gore might have been right. Not so sure about Carter, but the reality is that a greater proportion of Republicans than Democrats vote, largely because the Democrat demographic has a disproportionate share of people who don't own their own houses and are more mobile. Obama's GOTV has been the most professional ever, and that, more than any other single factor, will ensure he wins this time around, absent massive Republican ballot fraud.
Throw in the massive surge in interest by the young, who will not only vote but are the backbone of Obama's phone banks, fundraising, work on the web and outreach -- 150,000 in Fla alone, and McCain as well as Hillary were never going to beat that. For the Republicans it's entirtely about the candidate, but in the case of the young for Obama, it's more like a movemement for particiaption drawing down into the political firmament. Coming in tandem with the economic meltdown, this will be the foundation for generational Democrat dominance. McCain doesn't get that. If he did he wouldn't have bothered with fear and smear. That can only play to the ignorant and small minded who were always going to vote for him. Since most of these people are over 60, and the new people becoming involved are not uncommonly 14 or 15, this bodes ill for the for the hard right. That's why this is a watershed in US politics.
And not before time either. The US has been the laughing stock of the world for far too long. On November 4, the US will take it's first confident step out of the darkness and into the light.
Obama/Biden 08
Posted by: Fran Barlow | Oct 14, 2008 12:42:59 AM
It is funny to see Obama supporters accuse Jake of racism. Jake has been quite favourable to Obama.
On the other hand this is what America will look if Obama wins the Presidency( which I hope not), racist this...racist that, if you dont back Obama policies then you are racist.
I think Americans will be so scared to say anything as they will be labelled racist.
Posted by: Greg h | Oct 13, 2008 11:41:23 PM
I support Obama and can't imagine the lack of intellect it would take to vote for McCain, but I won't relax until November 5th.
Posted by: Michelle | Oct 13, 2008 10:58:37 PM
Obama definitely has a healthy lead right now, but a number of other polls indicate that the race is tightening up. Obama's double-digit lead in the ABC poll is not reflected in a number of other major polls.
Posted by: Sacha | Oct 13, 2008 10:43:08 PM
Agree - "it ain't over 'til it's over." There's no room for complacency in an election.
Posted by: Jane D. | Oct 13, 2008 10:04:53 PM
For what it's worth, racism or insensitivity never entered my mind when I read the title. In fact, I found it insanely hilarious. Keep it up. Oh, and I seriously a significant number of other blacks think it's racist either.
Posted by: Deontée | Oct 13, 2008 8:50:54 PM
Face it. Republicans will try and steal this election like they have in 2000 and 2004. Obama could be up 40 points and they would still find a way to steal it
Posted by: nick ames | Oct 13, 2008 7:15:34 PM
Who thinks this is over? Smart Obama supporters like me know it's not over until it's actually over. Right now there's plenty of time for the Repubs and Karl Rove to pull some of their nasty tricks. That's why we are VIGILANT.
Posted by: OrangeCrush | Oct 13, 2008 6:42:53 PM
slp = there are alot of criminals in the presidential gang, but they are not on the democratic side. let's start with john and the keating 5. he was so ashamed of his own actions - that he changed the entire way he operated -at least until this election. then there's cindy, who was convicted of both theft and unlawful drug use, drugs she stole from a poor people's clinic no less - and did not time for. then there's cindy's daddy - a felon who cannot vote and who made his money through booze and racetracks. then there's sarah - who abused her executive authority and has to testify THIS week because the republican-led investigation is not over. then there is bonehead todd, who for no apparent reason, set himself up as a little henchman for sarah, read government emails (illegally) read governmnent documents (illegally) and belonged for years to a crowd that wanted to secede from the union. what a bunch of cons, felons, and wackos.
and you're whining about obama, who served on an annenburg board financed by republicans and served beside a bucnh of conservative republican businessmen? give me a break.
Posted by: mara | Oct 13, 2008 6:38:55 PM
Belle, There is nothing Democratic about that freak show in Wasilla Alaska, either, from Joe Volger, the founder of the AIP, which Todd Palin belonged to - Old Joe, who said that he would kill any government agent who came after him - and that he HATED the United States of America to Mark Chryson, who says that he has enough "weaponry to arm a small army in his basement." He believes that there are 30 other states who interested in seceding. He is a pal of the Palins. As in a domestic terrorist pal - one of the bad guys. It's like a big Ruby Ridge up there and Sarah and Todd are the co-stars. I'd love to hear about who Sarah "palled" around with during her days in Northern Idaho - if these are her friends in Alaska.
Posted by: mara | Oct 13, 2008 6:31:50 PM
Post a comment

