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Obama-Backers: Check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself
October 13, 2008 11:37 AM
Buoyed by encouraging poll numbers -- today's ABC News/Washington Post poll has Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., beating Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz, 53% to 43% -- lots of Obama backers out there seem to think this thing is over.
Sen. Hillary Clinton's senior adviser Howard Wolfson today writes "A PreMortem for The McCain Campaign," stating, "The economic crisis dealt the McCain campaign a fatal body blow." He goes on to explore what McCain should have done differently.
That's not what lots of smart folks in the Obama campaign think. They believe Obama's poll numbers are artificially high, McCain's are artificially low, this race will come down to two or three points, and anything could happen.
As Anne Kornblut and Jon Cohen in the Washington Post today remind us, "recent history suggests that mid-October leads are vulnerable...At this stage in 1992, Bill Clinton held a 14-point advantage over incumbent George H.W. Bush in Post-ABC polling, and it was as high as 19 points before the election, which he won by six points. In mid-October 1976, Jimmy Carter had leads as big as 13 points in Gallup polling; Carter defeated incumbent Gerald Ford by two points."
CNN on October 5, 2000 reported that the "CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll indicates that Vice President Al Gore may be opening a solid lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush, after nearly two weeks of neck-and-neck competition. Today's figures -- 51 percent for Gore to 40 percent for Bush -- represents a significant margin for the vice president."
Obviously the numbers narrowed a little bit.
As will these as well.
-- jpt
UPDATE: It did not even occur to me, until a poster below accused me of being racist, that anyone would think my invoking of the line "Check yourself before you wreck yourself" had anything to do with Obama's race.
It does not.
It has to do with my frequent use of silly pop culture references, and the fact that I am a big fan of Ice Cube.
And in that spirit, enjoy:
October 13, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (193)
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It's not the Obama supporters - it's the McCain supporters. Somebody should tell Bill Kristol. And Rollins. They are already digging the grave.
I agree with you. McCain has sold himself to the sleeziest lobbyists and politicos in history - is completely willing to lie to win - and Sarah doesn't even recognize the difference betwen a truth and a lie. Unfortunately, this thing is far from over.
Posted by: mara | Oct 13, 2008 6:18:15 PM
I love listening to the painful noise of the conservatives watching the end of their inglorious dominance of the political sphere. Sure it will be noisy as they go through the death knell, but it's very entertaining. It's alright to allow them to let off a little steam.. I love to see your thoughts in print as some posts are so very entertaining! OBAMA in a landslide, will be elected to the highest office of the nation. The days of the GOP voting machine are over. Americans have gotten way too smart to keep falling for the same lame GOP tactics over and over. Bye bye conservative trainwreck.
Posted by: Den104 | Oct 13, 2008 6:16:22 PM
This is a lame attempt to create a narrative to explain the stealing of the vote. Obama does need a larger lead in order to win, only because it is likely that we will have a repeat of the last couple of elections. Vote supression and election fraud by the Republican Party is an established fact, and it WILL come into play again.
Posted by: Flash Override | Oct 13, 2008 5:59:59 PM
It ain't over until the fat lady sings. Let's not forget the possibility of hanging chads and all.. tricks that could be brought back into play by some of the less scrupulous members of the McCain-Palin campaign.
Posted by: Jane Sixpack | Oct 13, 2008 5:25:45 PM
msa123:
"that's what the people in the welfare line say, too. But not to worry... Obama is going to take care of that by spreading the hard earned wealth around a little more."
I hope so! I'm tired of sending in my hard-earned pay just so the government can give it to the rich.
Posted by: RealityCheck | Oct 13, 2008 5:10:40 PM
Let me explain it to you this way. It's first and ten with less than 1 minute left to play. Obama has the ball. All we have to do is take a knee to run out the clock. Obama's the MVP. We're not going to Disneyland, we're taking it to the HOUSE, the White House!
Posted by: Bam! | Oct 13, 2008 5:02:28 PM
I still can't decide who to vote for. I took a quiz to see which candidate shares my views more. This helped me in my decision but I'm still not certain.
Posted by: MV | Oct 13, 2008 4:12:20 PM
To msa123:
It is really amazing how ignorant some Right-Wingers in our country are.
As a college educated Republican, I am very embarrassed. Anybody with just a few college courses in Poli Sci and History would know what Socialism is. I call this the Palin effect, her appeal to the White-Trash, and bringing our party to the lowest level.
I don't agree with all of his ideas, but Obama's ideas are way far from being Socialism. They are very much based on a capitalist democracy. Please get some education and read, instead of spending too much time watching Fox News, and don't waste your time and other’s'.
P.
Posted by: Pegg | Oct 13, 2008 3:26:04 PM
"But I would much rather be ahead than behind."
Yeah... that's what the people in the welfare line say, too. But not to worry... Obama is going to take care of that by spreading the hard earned wealth around a little more.
Posted by: msa123 | Oct 13, 2008 3:17:56 PM
There is still plenty of work to do, phone calls to be made, doors to be knocked on etc.
But I would much rather be ahead than behind.
Posted by: Ryan C | Oct 13, 2008 3:13:19 PM
rob: you catch on real quick!!
Posted by: msa123 | Oct 13, 2008 3:04:25 PM
rob: how's this:
rob proves my point exactly by engaging in black and white, either or thinking. This primitive thinking is characteristic of narcissism and other unconscious manifestations. To a brainwashed Democrats, bridled regulated socialism is the only viable economic model...even though the socialism of countries such as Russia/SU proves it to be an abject failure. So any hint of responsibility or accountability is labeled "capitalism" by a culturally conditioned Democrat. Socialism has proven not to be effective - period. It is the same old same old of the rich exploiting and destroying the working class, letting them stand in line for handouts by the government. Democrats have proven time and time again that they are no champions of responsibility or true accountability...preferring instead to wrap themselves in the chants of no flags, no religion, no guns, and other shallow displays of pseudo-patriotism.
Better?
Posted by: msa123 | Oct 13, 2008 2:53:45 PM
msa123- When all else fails and you cannot come up with an intelligent rebuttal...smear, insult, and demean in typical Republican narcissistic fashion. LOL.I don't have to debate with you...you are self defeating like every other narcissist. No one ever said you could not disagree. 53% of us will be disagreeing with you and your ilk on Nov 4th when we drive the GOP out of the White House and the Congress. Good bye and good riddance to Republicans and Republicanism.
Posted by: Rob | Oct 13, 2008 2:44:20 PM
I am so tired of the ill-informed....if you even have half a brain and really want to know the other side then go to you tube and type in...Sarah Palin: Palling Around With Secessionists
I am telling you this because those who are quick to accuse Obama of being a Terrorist, then you need to hear in Palin's own words what she supports.
Once you hear her words and those at the meetings honoring her, tell me your eyes and ears are lying to you.
And after hearing it, maybe you ought to have some fear, she could be President!!!
I am sure that those who have hate for Obama will never watch this video, and I feel sorry for you because you won't listen to both sides. At least I have.
And you to vote for this ticket??????????
Obama/Biden '08
Posted by: Bev | Oct 13, 2008 2:43:31 PM
I hate to say it but the Bradley Effect will have a big influence on the final results of Obama's campaign. Many people will never, and I mean never, vote for a black man for president. The polls are tightening somewhat. Gallup, Rasmussen and Zogby are not at 10-13 points for Obama as some national polls have it.
Posted by: Amanda Moserski | Oct 13, 2008 2:39:14 PM
msa123- Now tell me again how socialism dispels the notion of "conditioned robots who have never thought an independent thought in their lives."?
Who said anything about socialism? msa123 proves my point exactly by engaging in black and white, either or thinking. This primitive thinking is characteristic of narcissism and other unconscious manifestations. To a brainwashed Republican, unbridled unregulated capitalism is the only viable economic model...even though the current worldwide financial meltdown proves it to be an abject failure. So any hint of responsibility or accountability is labeled "socialism" by a culturally conditioned Republican. Capitalism requires accountability and reciprocity to be effective. Otherwise it is the same old same old of the rich exploiting and destroying the working class. Republicans have proven time and time again that they are no champions of responsibility or true accountability...preferring instead to wrap themselves in flags, religion, guns, and other shallow displays of pseudo-patriotism.
Posted by: Rob | Oct 13, 2008 2:32:01 PM
liberal progressive: Sweetie is a condescending term. It has nothing to do with what political persuasion you are. Obama speaks the same way... although he only did it once after he was caught on tape saying it.
Posted by: msa123 | Oct 13, 2008 2:26:10 PM
"Okay sweetie. I'm sure Hillary( if she wasn't being gagged by the DNC) would beg to differ."
Is that sweetie addressed to a male or a female? (I sure wouldn't be calling somebody I don't know 'sweetie'.) BTW, are you a male or a female? I may not "go your way". . . .
Posted by: liberalprogressive | Oct 13, 2008 2:18:53 PM
"Okay sweetie. I'm sure Hillary( if she wasn't being gagged by the DNC) would beg to differ."
Is that sweetie addressed to a male or a female? (I sure wouldn't be calling somebody I don't know 'sweetie'.) BTW, are you a male or a female? I may not "go your way". . . .
Posted by: liberalprogressive | Oct 13, 2008 2:18:53 PM
"It is hard to think of any presidential candidate before Barack Obama sporting associations with three more execrable characters."
It's easy for me: John McCain. And his associations were a wee bit closer, like flying down in the man's jet to stay in the man's holiday mansion, or contravening the Senate's ethics code to "help out" his friend. And that's just ONE guy . . . .
Posted by: liberalprogressive | Oct 13, 2008 2:15:34 PM
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