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MONTHLY ARCHIVES
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Poll Cats: 5 Days Out
October 30, 2008 1:36 PM
Quality polls of likely voters in battleground states, courtesy of our polling unit.
Arizona - 53-46 McCain, 10/28 CNN/Time/ORC
Indiana - 47-47 tie, Research 2000/WISH-TV
Indiana - 46-45 Obama, 10/28 Selzer & Co./Indianapolis Star/WTHR
Minnesota - 56-37 Obama, 10/28 Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute, University of Minnesota
Nevada - 52-45 Obama, 10/28 CNN/Time/ORC
Nevada - 50-45 Obama 10/28 Research 2000/The Reno Gazette-Journal/KTVN
New Hampshire - 58-34 Obama, 10/28 UNH/WMUR
North Carolina - 52-46 Obama, 10/28 CNN/Time/ORC
Ohio - 51-47 Obama 10/28, CNN/Time/ORC
Pennsylvania - 54-41 Obama, 10/29 Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Pennsylvania - 55-43 Obama, 10/28 CNN/Time/ORC
Pennsylvania - 47-43 Obama, 10/28 Mason-Dixon/NBC
Wisconsin - 53-42 Obama, 10/28 Research 2000/WISC-TV
- jpt
October 30, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (68)
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"Quality polls" - Surely you jest...
Like beauty, a "quality poll" is in the eye of the beholder...
Posted by: tjp8 | Oct 31, 2008 7:14:25 PM
SandyB
No, they were not. Pennsylvania doesn't even have early voting.
Posted by: jock59801 | Oct 30, 2008 7:20:10 PM
As I stated, these were exit polls from all early voters, not a mixed sampling.
Posted by: SandyB | Oct 30, 2008 6:35:18 PM
"The Nevada poll was taken from an exit poll conducted with 7,000+ early voters."
You were discussing Florida. Why would you bring up this poll?
"In the survey conducted since the beginning of early voting, 52 percent of Nevada's voters have either voted for or plan to vote for the Illinois senator. When asked the reason for their choice, several respondents said their discontent with the Bush administration and the economy give Obama the lead.
That compares with McCain's 40 percent."
Posted by: Ryan C (That One) | Oct 30, 2008 6:04:16 PM
The Nevada poll was taken from an exit poll conducted with 7,000+ early voters.
Posted by: SandyB | Oct 30, 2008 5:51:48 PM
"This was only a poll for those who had voted early, not all voters."
Yes and because of a small sample size the poll has a wide margin of error.
Posted by: Ryan C (That One) | Oct 30, 2008 5:33:11 PM
This was only a poll for those who had voted early, not all voters.
Posted by: SandyB | Oct 30, 2008 5:20:32 PM
SandyB,
You left out this part of the article about that LA Times/Bloomberg poll: "Only a tiny fraction of the Florida respondents reported voting early, leaving McCain's lead subject to a wide margin of error."
WHOOPS!
That's what you get for counting on Drudge for your info.
I'm so glad I'm not a McCain supporter, flailing for whatever flimsy straw I (mistakenly) think might keep me afloat.
Posted by: R | Oct 30, 2008 4:53:37 PM
Great strategy there, pubs. Count on the people who lie to pollsters to turn things around. Good luck with that.
Posted by: Yukon Sam | Oct 30, 2008 4:47:36 PM
i think the media has been charitable in
their treatment of palin. mccain is the one who should be saying sorry to palin,
they did it all wrong.
mccain used bad judgement for picking palin
palin used bad judgement in accepting.
Posted by: cheer up, smile, nertz! | Oct 30, 2008 4:46:20 PM
Politico is reporting a new study that shows media coverage of Sarah Palin has been negative at a ratio of 18:1. Of 69 stories there were only 2 positive stories. There were also 37 negative, and 30 neutral ones.
But, I'm guessing there will be no apologies forthcoming to Gov. Palin....just some pats on the back and some whooping it up in newsrooms all across America for the "great job" you have all done in promoting "The One" into a role he is not prepared to fill.
_______________________________________________
Since McCain did not Vet her - the press did.
Since she refused to speak to anyone, people made opinions of her based on those that know her.
Sometimes this is difficult to grasp - but sometimes people do reap what they sow.
Posted by: Get Real | Oct 30, 2008 4:20:34 PM
How about the L.A. Times/Bloomberg polls that show McCain ahead in early voting in Florida.
With 1.4 million early votes cast, McCain leads Obama by roughly 49-45%.
HOWEVER, out of the 1.4 million early voters, 54% are registered Democrats, and only 30% are registered Republicans.
Looks like a lot of registered Democrats are voting for McCain.
A similar situation appears to be happening during early voting in Nevada.
WHOOPS!
Posted by: SandyB | Oct 30, 2008 4:10:12 PM
Politico is reporting a new study that shows media coverage of Sarah Palin has been negative at a ratio of 18:1. Of 69 stories there were only 2 positive stories. There were also 37 negative, and 30 neutral ones.
But, I'm guessing there will be no apologies forthcoming to Gov. Palin....just some pats on the back and some whooping it up in newsrooms all across America for the "great job" you have all done in promoting "The One" into a role he is not prepared to fill.
Posted by: Biased Much | Oct 30, 2008 4:03:22 PM
I was worried about Pennsylvania when I saw the NBC poll but after seeing other polls, I'm confident he will win that very important state.
Posted by: Kathy | Oct 30, 2008 3:59:32 PM
I love how Republicans want a British court system. they want the burden of proof to be on the accuse not the accuser.
Posted by: MM | Oct 30, 2008 3:55:51 PM
Look at the changing electoral map. The Republicans are losing ground in the south and Rocky Mountain region, and several states that used to be solid red states (Georgia, North Dakota, Montana, Arizona) are now becoming competitive. Boy are the Republicans are in deep doo-doo! Must be that reverse-Robinhood, trickle-down, top-down economics stupid.
Posted by: progressive independent | Oct 30, 2008 3:28:48 PM
topo2005
re: 'PHILLIES WIN WORLD SERIES'
- here in Pennsylvania, we welcome Obama, and he will carry the state......
Posted by: Blue | Oct 30, 2008 3:25:12 PM
Amy:
re: 'If some one ask you to proof your birth place, how difficult or what damage could do to you if you just simply showing your original birth certificate?'
maybe, just maybe, if those who asked were notthe fringe rumor mongers of the 'right wing' nutball community......... but seriously folks.....
the legal burden is NOT on Obama to prove anything........... if you think the rumor is correct than you have to prove it, legally in court... your boy Berg isn't doing so well with his case.
only thing left for the right wing Republicans is innuendo, lies and McCain saying 'my policy is this: don't vote for Obama'......
Posted by: Blue | Oct 30, 2008 3:22:19 PM
If I'm Obams I dont open the drapes from their packages just yet, and I save my reciepts.
Call it a hunch.
Posted by: topo2005 | Oct 30, 2008 3:22:02 PM
"Why did he refuse to release the record to the court"
The court never asked him to release his record and it dismissed the nuisance lawsuit by Berg against him.
The lesson as always? Right winger lie.
Posted by: Ryan C (That One) | Oct 30, 2008 3:21:16 PM
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