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What If...All These Polls Are Wrong?

October 29, 2008 8:41 AM

Is it possible that every one of these polls is wrong, that the numbers are wiggity wiggity whack?

Michael Abramowitz of the Washington Post gives voice to that notion, to the Obama campaign's deepest, darkest fear in “Accuracy of Polls a Question In Itself; Skeptics Challenge Assumptions Made.” And our friends at the ever-optimistic, straw-grasping RNC are sending it out.

There “appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics,” Abramowitz writes. “One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.

“Some in the McCain camp also argue that the polls showing the largest leads for Obama mistakenly assume that turnout among young voters and African Americans will be disproportionately high. The campaign is banking on a good turnout among GOP partisans, whom McCain officials say they are working hard to attract to the polls.”

From 1989 until 1998, Marvel Comics ran a monthly series called “What If...?” in which it created whole new storylines that no one outside of the most extremist comic book geeks ever pondered.

“What if Spiderman Joined the Fantastic Four?” they asked.

Or...what if the Fantastic Four consisted of the Incredible Hulk, Ghost Rider, Wolverine, and Spiderman?

Yes, they managed 114 issues along those lines.

The looming question is whether What If All These Polls Are Wrong? will be seen as prescient academic wisdom (and believe me, a lot of us are taking the question seriously), or whether in retrospect these questions will be seen as just a political version of “What If Wolverine Had Killed the Hulk?”

- jpt

October 29, 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (98)

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What if the polls are right and Obama wins? It means the following:

1. The world economy is going to collapse;
2. Israel will attack Iran before Iran wipes Israel out of the map;
3. The Middle East countries will jump on Israel;
4. That will be the beginning of World War III.
5. Obama will rule for 42 months; and
6. The world will end in December 2012, as predicted by Nostradamus and the Mayans.

Recommend the book "The Thunder of Justice" authored by Ted and Maureen Flynn, published in 1993. Read Chapter 15." This book wrote about the Twin Towers attack. Hope you can find the book because it's very interesting and an eye-opener.

I'm voting for McCain only because Palin is the lesser of the 4 evils (McCain, Palin, Obama, and Biden). You may want to laugh and ridicule me, but I was not laughing when I read it last night. I couldn't sleep afterwards, had to turn on the lights. Hope we make the right choice. Lets pray that God will bless us and guide us in the right direction.

Posted by: Annonymous | Oct 30, 2008 2:20:17 AM

Polling is what polling is - random people, random questions, random answers.

I do find it interesting that when Hussein Obama is leading, there is no mention of the margin of error; When McCain is leading or tied, there is significant emphasis on explaining the margin of error.

As for the comment in the thread about how we as the US don't provide health care to everyone - well - that is not America. We are individualists - pioneers - free-thinkers (hopefully still I pray) - this is what made America great. It is what has allowed the socialist experiments in Europe to continue - we protect and defend them with our know-how and our men and women in uniform.

Centralization sounds like a good idea - except when you factor in the element of human greed and special interests. Look at Fannie Mae - a Government Sponsored Enterprise. They stamped 'Approved' and 'AAA' on bad loans, loans to illegals, loans to people without credit history. Raines, an 'unofficial Hussein Obama advisor got $90M from Fannie to thank him for corruption and when forced to resign because of gross accounting irregularities, got a $240M bonus. He also made sure the Hussein Obama campaign got $100,000 from Fannie Mae.

I don't hear Flim-Flam Obam demanding recovery of that $90M. Or even the $240M. Nor do we even hear the real story about it in the media. After all, it might affect the poll numbers.

Posted by: Hunting for Freedom | Oct 29, 2008 7:56:53 PM

What if every American who supported Obama went and voted? Even better what if they got involved this weekend by going to their local campaign office or visited a battleground state to spread the word? Then the words, "President McCain" will NEVER be uttered and our country can get to work because there's a lot to do. Obama can do this but needs our help. It's not too late to make a difference! Please get involved!

Posted by: Amy | Oct 29, 2008 5:26:42 PM

"I get so confused with Republican conspiracy theories, there are so many to try to keep track of"

So track the truth: Obama is a liar and a cheat without experience and no plan worth following beyond taking from the haves and giving to the have nots aided by the most thuggish campaign since Videla's , Proceso de Reorganización Nacional.

This election is the Great Get Even. The celebration hangover will be long, nasty and followed by economic pneumonia.

Posted by: len | Oct 29, 2008 4:06:31 PM

With the exception of outlier polls, the polls themselves aren't necessarily wrong, the results just lag behind the trends as well as the latest news.

The trend right now, with 5+ days to go, is a tightening of this race. Assuming this trend continues, we could see a dead heat come Election Day.

Posted by: Cliff | Oct 29, 2008 3:56:33 PM

re: 'You neglected the part where he broke up the Beatles and shot John Lennon. '

not really, that part comes right after McCain & Gov. Winky Caribou's rant of Marxist Communist,
or was it fascist nazi, or was it muslim manchurian candidate.....
I get so confused with Republican conspiracy theories, there are so many to try to keep track of..

Posted by: Blue | Oct 29, 2008 3:22:31 PM

I only know Florida and I don't see Obama winning. To many elderly and to many military people.

Posted by: Tina From Florida | Oct 29, 2008 3:01:31 PM

To Brooklyn Democrat:

Learn your history and you would know 2 things.

1. Obama is a Marxist in the vien of Stalin himself
2. Texas is the only state that can legally seceed from the US.

So don't get cold if Obama wins come to the Independent Republic of Texas the source of the most expensive oil to the United Socialist States of America.

Posted by: BJT | Oct 29, 2008 2:47:54 PM

"Republicans find amazing new info on Obama:"

You neglected the part where he broke up the Beatles and shot John Lennon.

Typical lefties. They always leave out the details we really care about.

Posted by: len | Oct 29, 2008 2:00:28 PM

Republicans find amazing new info on Obama:

- he sank the Titanic
- he caused global warming
- responsible for dinosaurs dying
- he initiated 'no turn on red' in many states
- responsible for the original Star Trek being canceled
- his birth certificate was signed by an American

stay tuned..... more to come

Posted by: Blue | Oct 29, 2008 1:18:14 PM

I spent two hours watching an"Ohio voter focus group" conducted by NBC, shown on Cspan. It was very interesting . It was 12 undecided Ohio voters, 7 were leaning McCain and 5 were Obama. I heard this out of their own mouths. After the pollster asked the 2 hours of questions and tried his best to lean them towards Obama, far more questions regarding Obama then McCain. The focus groups goal was so obvious. Any way after all this about eight reporters come in and discuss what they thought. They all sat there and pretty much thought Obama was their choice.At one point a reporter from a Cleveland paper mentioned how the white union president was encouraging the union memebers to vote Obama not look at race.(Which I agree with) So the rep. all sat there and said did we have union members here? reply, yeah Ralph retired fireman must be union. Guess what they had a union plumber sitting there for two hours answering questions for this focus group.. These professionals didn't even aknowlege him. He was leaning McCain. Plus they mentioned they thought it was interesting how Ralph(fireman) said what he wanted of his President was for him to put Country First. They say that was interesting to use McCains slogan and yet lean toward Obama. WEll I suggest these reporters go back and watch this show because Ralph was supporting McCain and he said so. My point after this long story. These reporters twisted this whole voter forum to favor Obama and they are dillusional. Even Obama supporters said they felt more secure with McCain as far as national security. Which surprised the reporters because the economy wasn't thier top concern.I watched the whole show and listened and they were 7-5 McCain. So don't listen to the polls they are definetly false. This show was on CSPAN I suggest McCain/Plain supporters watch it it is really very enlightening. And I suggest these professional reporters go find another job.

Posted by: conf1689 | Oct 29, 2008 1:12:50 PM

A McCain win means that every flaming hate-filled anit-American liberal must now do what they promised to do.....LEAVE!

Oh wait, they already said they would leave and they lied. Typical liberal hate-filled anit-American liars.

Posted by: Happy | Oct 29, 2008 12:53:36 PM

What if, what if, what if...hmmmmm Is all this really important...is the press trying to manipulate the election in some "small" way?

If we stick to the issues surrounding this country....like the candidates should have all along...who cares about the polls...

May the best candidate win - POLL OR NO POLL!

Obama/Biden 2008!!!!!

Posted by: Richard | Oct 29, 2008 12:35:19 PM

OK - why is it the Gov of Hawaii had to SEAL Obamas Birth Cert?? Why are his School Records sealed? They say because he was born in Kenya not USA -and because he got into the University as a forieng student. WHY ARENT THE AMERICANS Screamming to know the truth - why does Obama get the headlines - I havent seen McCain/Palin in any headlines unless they THINK they found something bad - Why do we care about Sarahs shoes - no one cared about Hillarys shoes - AND why is it Hillary was screaming at the top of her lungs OBAMA IS NOT EXPERIENCED TO LEAD THIS COUNTRY and now suddenly he is? What happened to the Americans that want to know and have the right to know and will fight to know the WHOLE STORY -I'd like to see the media tear Obama apart as they tore into Joe the Plumber - poor guy - asked a damned question - one not in favor of Obama and he got crucified What the hell happened to Americans? Ilove my country - COUNTRY FIRST but the people in it - you all scare me - dont like McCain - vote for who runs against him in four years - at least allow him to go in and Get OSAMA and straighten out the war in Iraq/Afganastan - WOULDNT IT BE NICE FOR A CHANGE TO HAVE OUR TOP TWO LEADERS IN THIS COUNTRY WITH THEIR OWN KIDS FIGHTING THE WAR?????????? HAS EVERYONE FORGOTTEN THERE IS MORE TO THIS THAN ECONOMICS? You all scare the hell out of me - inviting the terrorists to test us!! NICE job Biden - and again wheres that Birth certificate -cause if you have nothing to hide - then why seal it? OH and his poor grammy Toot - she broke her hip ( and I sincerely feel for her as my Mom went thru it last year) NEWS SAYS - "Gravely Ill" come on!!!! Give me a break - you need the sympathy vote too now? She is not gravely ill - I am sure she is in pain and I am also sure she is being very well taken care of - Gravely Ill - all media shall rot in hell for what they are trying to portray and all of you that are laughing at me and my thoughts - tell ya what, if Obama wins - e-mailme in a year -cause instead of us saying God Bless America - We'll be crying God HELP AMERICA - we are in deep well water if he wins - I love Sarah - she is bright intelligent good speaker and her 19yr old son just went to Iraq in the Infantry!! Front lines!! What does Obama know about fighting a war and keeping or kids safe? Both McCain & Palin have their kids fighting over there - why doesnt that seem important to the rest of this country. I would be proud to have her represent the USA - not enough experience well, McCain aint dead yet guys! AND Obama doesnt have the experience either - OH BUT THATS OK ITS OBAMA - I have heard and have said myself I'd like someone who wasnt a politian to run - well, Sarah is as close to a real person as we have ever seen - she has family and a baby with special needs - our kids fighting over there will get better care and better everything if our Commander and Chief and VP have their own kids fighting for this country - Obama oshama - what a sad joke -no will menetion that he's shhhhh (black) yep I said it - so WHAT - who cares paint him white and he'd never get this far NEVER - lets be honest no way he'd be this far if he wasnt - and the media can all go to hell they are suppose to be neutral YEAH RIGHT I SEE IT - DONT YOU NO? ME EITHER You Obama followers are being blinded and stupid and just voting cause why? you didnt like Bush - BUSH ISNT RUNNING Cause McCain is a republican? This country notoriously votes in one party they suck - so they vote in the other party - they suck back and forth we go - McCain can fix this Country Obama will kill it Mark my words while you laugh -cause we will all see soon enough. One last note: the fact that we americans voted for Bush not once but TWICE and then did nothing but badmouth him - I find it disgusting that we speak of our President with such disrespect - crap he wouldnt be there if we didnt put him there - and dont blame it all on the republicans cause there were enough Democrats in there to stop Bush from doing anything worthwhile ! I'm done - no one listens anyway!

Posted by: Sharonna | Oct 29, 2008 12:11:42 PM

Brooklyn Democarat. First off, the vast majority of the people at the rally will be from out of town. Secondly, Republicans don't threaten to move out if their candidate loses (a favorite tact of Democrat celebrities in years past). Thirdly....

Alaska is too damn cold!

:)

Posted by: topo2005 | Oct 29, 2008 12:06:51 PM

Hey, I was flipping around last night and I found out that there is a tape about Obama at a PLO dinner or something. It is in the LA Times?? Why did we not hear about this on ABC?? I keep finding out that ABC is letting me down for breaking news!! What is the story about?? Why is it not on the news?? I might have to change stations!!


Posted by: doingmypart | Oct 29, 2008
-----------------------------------
All stations are for "Ogona take our money". You should be listening to Fox.

Posted by: Molly | Oct 29, 2008 12:03:09 PM

topo2005 -

You seem to be suggesting that Chicagoans will riot if Obama doesn't win. If McCain loses, there's an equal chance that the wing nuts will move to the Peoples Republic of Alaska and secede from the union. Maybe the rest of us will then have a chance at civilized discourse and problem solving.

Posted by: Brooklyn Democrat | Oct 29, 2008 12:02:03 PM

Penn polls also gave it to Obama in primary, Hillary won by huge margin, even after watching 10k people parade for Obama.
__________________________________________

Not a single poll had Obama ahead in PA.

After a week filled with bad news for the Obama campaign, Hillary
Clinton is out to a 56-30 lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

Posted by: facts DO INDEED matter | Oct 29, 2008 11:24:10 AM

So I'm a spammer now?

lol

Posted by: Nashville_fan | Oct 29, 2008 11:23:44 AM

Come on people:

When you take a poll of merely 847 people in a state that has millions, do you really think you are getting a close sample of how the state is going to swing?

Do these polls even tell you how many Democrats/Republicans/Independents they polled?

Area that they polled or age group?

I have never been polled personally and a vast majority of people I know or talk to have not been polled either.

But here is something funny, a friend of mine did tell me that her 14 year-old nephew was polled in PA and he was on the phone with them for 30+ minutes. he told them he was old enough to vote and that is all they needed.

Really???

Posted by: UnPoliticallyCorrect2008 | Oct 29, 2008 11:19:26 AM

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